Sox stumbling out of April and into a Yankee series

[TheRivernator]

No, Optimist. The only joke on this thread is, TheRivernator.

 

P.S. Rivernator: You know nothing about baseball. I make an argument and you completely ignore it. Yankees suck, that is all there is to it. Now, quit your OBSESSION and get off our Red Sox website.

 

I didnt ignore it. I laughed at it for its sheer lack of baseball intellect and total homer persuasion. BTW, let me translate that into texas speak.

 

Your argoomant was just plain dumb boy. No need to pick it a part I reckon...

[TheRivernator]

... And we are rather unimpressed by watching your guys blow a 3-0 lead in the ALCS (that would be the worst choke in MLB history). C'mon, TheRivernator: Our team is just better than yours. What the f*** do we care if history favors you? f*** history. This is NOW. And the 2006 Red Sox are better than the 2006 Yankees.

 

so you were rather unimpressed with your own history making performance? You basically just shot yourself in the foot right there. Keep goin Bubba. Also, currently, the sox are not better than the yankees and I think most of the people on this site will agree. But it is May 1st at midnight and there is a lot of season to go. I am sorry for your girlfriend or your wife if you were able to convince the local dip s*** champ to enter into nuptuals, because she may never understand what real lovin is. You keep creamin the bed sheets with your prematurity....

[redoctober]

so you were rather unimpressed with your own history making performance? You basically just shot yourself in the foot right there. Keep goin Bubba. Also, currently, the sox are not better than the yankees and I think most of the people on this site will agree. But it is May 1st at midnight and there is a lot of season to go. I am sorry for your girlfriend or your wife if you were able to convince the local dip s*** champ to enter into nuptuals, because she may never understand what real lovin is. You keep creamin the bed sheets with your prematurity....

 

 

Oh man, no need to get dirty with this argument, but yeah right now, the Yankees are a better team than the Red Sox. I can admit that.

[Sox fan in Tex]

Lack of baseball intellect? View every post you have directed towards me. Again: My team is the Boston Red Sox. I could care less what you have to say about the state of Texas. You're pathetic, Rivernator. Honestly, just read over your last five or so responses and see how ridiculous you look.

[TheRivernator]

Lack of baseball intellect? View every post you have directed towards me. Again: My team is the Boston Red Sox. I could care less what you have to say about the state of Texas. You're pathetic, Rivernator. Honestly, just read over your last five or so responses and see how ridiculous you look.

 

did you read my post, or is readin hard for you? Your argument about being unimpressed with your own history, well, I basically turned it on you. Your argument that the sox are a better team right now, well, you are premature in making that assessment and flat our wrong if you have been watching the games recently....

[schillingouttheks]

I leave for 2 hours, and what the f***?

[ORS]

as always, premature conclusions......

Just like your opening salvo, eh?

 

Ouch. Sucks when your own words bitch slap you.

[TheRivernator]

Just like your opening salvo, eh?

 

Ouch. Sucks when your own words bitch slap you.

 

My opening salve was a shot over the bow of red sox nation, sparking the rivalry and this site into a frenzy for tomorrow...

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

 

Now way man, that was the worst offseason of my life. I couldnt sleep some nights. I tortured myself with Joey Salvia's (for those that dont know Joey Salvia is a musician who also works on the Michael Kay show) songs about the Red Sox beating the Yankees (little quirky songs he made for the show. Go to 1050espnradio.com and click on "Joey's Page" and there they are.). I never want to experience that again.

Lmao, I remeber that. I thought his "Oh Andy" song was pretty good for someone like him.

[ORS]

My opening salve was a shot over the bow of red sox nation, sparking the rivalry and this site into a frenzy for tomorrow...

Easy, Captain Crunch. We can all get into the games without your urging. I just find it funny when you say one shouldn't jump to premature conclusions regarding the Yankees, but then do the exact opposite. Try and at least be mildly consistent.

[TheRivernator]

also, my post was mostly factual. I just pulled out some numbers. Might be premature in some of the analysis, but nothing premature about using statistics to validate a point....

[ORS]

also, my post was mostly factual. I just pulled out some numbers. Might be premature in some of the analysis, but nothing premature about using statistics to validate a point....

No, it certainly isn't, but if you are willing to take a small sample and run with it, then you will have some 'splaining to do when you tell others they are being premature.

[hoefdj18]

rivernator, honestly, why are you in this forum? i swear you are more obsessed with the sox than your own team.

[TheRivernator]

No, it certainly isn't, but if you are willing to take a small sample and run with it, then you will have some 'splaining to do when you tell others they are being premature.

 

a month of stats is enough to at least mark some trends, is it not?

[ORS]

a month of stats is enough to at least mark some trends, is it not?

I wouldn't take it to the bank. With a player like AGon, where the stats match up with what your eye tells you, then yeah. But I think the jury is still out on Loretta. Oh, and BTW, Mike "No Power" Lowell is slugging .511 with a ~.200 IsoP. I'll take that any day from the hot corner.

[riverside sluggers]

I wouldn't take it to the bank. With a player like AGon, where the stats match up with what your eye tells you, then yeah. But I think the jury is still out on Loretta. Oh, and BTW, Mike "No Power" Lowell is slugging .511 with a ~.200 IsoP. I'll take that any day from the hot corner.

 

He's also now hitting .318, tied for tops in doubles, but yea as we all know he's in the downward of his career;)

 

---------------------

Rivernator: Youk has been a great leadoff hitter to this point and if he is moved to the 2 hole when Coco returns, then you add Loretta's .219 BA and .577OPS down in the order with the likes of AGon (.179BA and .497OPS)

 

All indications and reports are that Youkilis will be moved down to the 8 hole, as Ive said before it will give stability in the bottom of the order.

 

They have 2 aces who are not lights out 90% of the time like Petey was

 

After 6 starts, Schilling has a 2.88 ERA and has recorded 40 Ks in 40.2 innings pitched. He keeps it up, and will be hard argue to argue of him not being lights out all the time. Now dont get ahead of yourself and say Im comparing him to Pedro, what is evident that Schilling is just about at 2004 ace form.

[empirestrikesback26]

The red sox have a better staff. That's all I'll give them. Last year both teams were pretty much equal, but this year the approaches have changed. Yankees staying in the offensive approach while the red sox try the better starting pitching approach. We'll see which one works. I believe the defense and bullpens are similar.

[CrespoBlows]

Man, as a yankee fan, I am licking my chops thinking about the AL East this yr. The Red Sox look ultimately vulnerable in that they dont have that fear factor that their offense brought to the table the last 3 yrs. During that time, playing the red sox meant hard fought back and forth action with tons of runs scored and way too much clutch hitting. Winning the season series was a war in 2003 and 2005 and we werent even close in 2004.

 

This yr, the sox team is built on pitching, but that can be neutralized as they don't have the "outstanding" pitcher that they once had in vintage Petey. They have 2 aces who are not lights out 90% of the time like Petey was, hence the sox will really rely on the back end of their rotation which in and of itself is horrible. The offense is the big story though. After having the most feared lineup in all of baseball, they are 17th in runs in the MLB and 9th out of 14 in the AL. They are also 9th out of 14 in BA in the AL and 8th in OPS and have given up 10 more runs than they have scored. But, the biggest story is that they are 12th in the AL in BAw/RISP at .235 (add 0 for 8 today and it is much lower). The lineup is 2 men deep and can be manuevered around to a point that Manny and Ortiz are forced to go get their pitches instead of waiting for them to come.

 

Many people will harp on the loss of Coco as being the main reason for the demise, but look at how the lineup is shaking up. Youk has been a great leadoff hitter to this point and if he is moved to the 2 hole when Coco returns, then you add Loretta's .219 BA and .577OPS down in the order with the likes of AGon (.179BA and .497OPS) and the slow starting Varitek who is at .718 in OPS. Also, for those of you who want to harp on the additions, take a look at this stat. Mike Lowell, Mark Loretta, and Alex Gonzalez, the 3 biggest offseason acquisitions not named Coco are batting a combined .238. The guys they let go (Graf, Mueller, and ERent) hit a combined .289 last yr and a whopping .303 to start this season. Of those 3, Lowell is the only one pulling his weight, but he is still low on the power scale with only 2 HRs in his first month of the fens and a pedestrian .250 w/RISP which is what he needs to do batting after Manny or Trot. I wont even bother making a Damon to Coco comparison because of the injury.

 

Overall, bring on the sox, and I won't even be arrogant enough to call a 2 game sweep as I think our 3 and 4 will split with your 2 and 3 at your house. But, the sox lack of offense is a welcome surprise coming from a yankee fan who has watched the sox completely dominate both mediocre and great pitching the past few yrs. I hope they keep it up. Happy May all....

 

You're judging the Red Sox April roster as the same roster the Red Sox will go foward into the playoffs with. You don't actually expect these players to keep the status quo, do you? Alex Gonzalez isn't a good hitter, but he isn't Mario Mendoza. His OPS won't be below .500 for the whole season, but even if it is, the Red Sox will throw Dustin Pedroia into the fire. He probably could out hit Gonzalez right now.

 

Another bad point with Mark Loretta. He's a career .301 hitter, with an extremely high contact rate. That's a sure bet to increase.

 

Mike Lowell? I seriously doubt he's off to a bad start. .318/.371/.511/.882. Better than A-Rod so far, .267/.390/.477/.867. Though that's not likely to continue, it sort of makes my point. Slow starts are often rectified.

 

Summing up the offense, you don't really believe the Red Sox offense is that bad?

 

The Red Sox pitching staff is far better than it was last year. Schilling and Beckett will avoid long losing streaks, Wakefield is starting off well, and is better than his record indicates. We all know Clement is a head-case, but he isn't that bad. He should get his ERA down, which in all truths is bloated by one bad start. Dinardo, won't be there all year, and Papelbon should return to the rotation, as soon as Hansen proves he is ready. I don't even want to hear about Hansen, and his inexperience. When's the last time you saw a pitcher throw 98 mph, and complement it with a 90 mph slider, and a 82 mph changeup?

 

As for your point the Red Sox are built on pitching, is that so terrible? It's literally impossible to write off the Red Sox right now, they have the chips to make moves, and talent in the system to move to the bigs.

[TheRivernator]

The red sox have a better staff. That's all I'll give them. Last year both teams were pretty much equal, but this year the approaches have changed. Yankees staying in the offensive approach while the red sox try the better starting pitching approach. We'll see which one works. I believe the defense and bullpens are similar.

 

I dont agree with that statement. I think everybody knows that RJ and Beckett are better than their ERAs and both of our questionable old men have come up aces (Mussina and Schilling). I'd call the top 2 a draw to this point. The middle of the rotation is basically a draw as well with Wake a bit better than Wang (although we will see tomorrow) and Chacon better than Clement. Our 5's suck, but we both have questionable injury returns in Pavano/Small for us and Wells for you guys. If the 5's neutralize each other, then I'd call the rotation even. If one outperforms the other, then that will be the winning rotation. The top 4 to this point is equal...

[empirestrikesback26]

I think RJ will get better, but not any better than schilling, and beckett will be better than moose over the course of the season. The only hope for us to have a better staff is to have pavano be in his 04 form which is highly unlikely.

[TheRivernator]

You're judging the Red Sox April roster as the same roster the Red Sox will go foward into the playoffs with. You don't actually expect these players to keep the status quo, do you? Alex Gonzalez isn't a good hitter, but he isn't Mario Mendoza. His OPS won't be below .500 for the whole season, but even if it is, the Red Sox will throw Dustin Pedroia into the fire. He probably could out hit Gonzalez right now.

 

Another bad point with Mark Loretta. He's a career .301 hitter, with an extremely high contact rate. That's a sure bet to increase.

 

Mike Lowell? I seriously doubt he's off to a bad start. .318/.371/.511/.882. Better than A-Rod so far, .267/.390/.477/.867. Though that's not likely to continue, it sort of makes my point. Slow starts are often rectified.

 

Summing up the offense, you don't really believe the Red Sox offense is that bad?

 

The Red Sox pitching staff is far better than it was last year. Schilling and Beckett will avoid long losing streaks, Wakefield is starting off well, and is better than his record indicates. We all know Clement is a head-case, but he isn't that bad. He should get his ERA down, which in all truths is bloated by one bad start. Dinardo, won't be there all year, and Papelbon should return to the rotation, as soon as Hansen proves he is ready. I don't even want to hear about Hansen, and his inexperience. When's the last time you saw a pitcher throw 98 mph, and complement it with a 90 mph slider, and a 82 mph changeup?

 

As for your point the Red Sox are built on pitching, is that so terrible? It's literally impossible to write off the Red Sox right now, they have the chips to make moves, and talent in the system to move to the bigs.

 

Exactly what I was waiting for, a well thought out post of retort. Thank you. To rebut your points...

 

You're judging the Red Sox April roster as the same roster the Red Sox will go foward into the playoffs with. You don't actually expect these players to keep the status quo, do you? Alex Gonzalez isn't a good hitter, but he isn't Mario Mendoza. His OPS won't be below .500 for the whole season, but even if it is, the Red Sox will throw Dustin Pedroia into the fire. He probably could out hit Gonzalez right now.

 

I think Gonzalez hits close to .220 this yr with an OPS around .600. BUT, bringing a rookie shortstop up in the middle of a pennant race could have disastrous results to his development, especially since he projects more as a 2b. I expect him in the fens as your 2b next yr.

 

Another bad point with Mark Loretta. He's a career .301 hitter, with an extremely high contact rate. That's a sure bet to increase.

Maybe, maybe not. He is still getting the bat on the ball at a good rate (5Ks in close to 100ABs), but he cannot drive it with regularity, which you still need to do to get even a single. It looks like his thumb injury may be worse than expected or he could be aging and not able to deliver like he did before. His terrible SLG last yr is proving to be more of a fact than a fluke thus far.

 

The Red Sox pitching staff is far better than it was last year. Schilling and Beckett will avoid long losing streaks, Wakefield is starting off well, and is better than his record indicates. We all know Clement is a head-case, but he isn't that bad. He should get his ERA down, which in all truths is bloated by one bad start. Dinardo, won't be there all year, and Papelbon should return to the rotation, as soon as Hansen proves he is ready. I don't even want to hear about Hansen, and his inexperience. When's the last time you saw a pitcher throw 98 mph, and complement it with a 90 mph slider, and a 82 mph changeup?

If Paps goes to the rotation, then the sox will have a clear cut advantage in the rotation that I will not deny. But questions abound about Beckett and Schilling. Both got out of the gate hot, but both put together #3 or #4 type starts their past 2 outings. Beckett has questionable durability and also has questionable ability outside of the friendly confines of Marlin Stadium. Schilling has outperformed expectations to this point, but he is still not a true ACE in the meaning of the word. As a matter of fact, not many of them exist anymore. As far as Hansen is concerned, if you want to see a guy with power stuff that you describe flounder, take a look at Scott Proctor. His stuff is just as good as Hansen's, 96-99mph heat, + breaking stuff, +changeup. It took him 3 years to get his s*** straight at the MLB level before he started pitching well. Pitching in the bigs is more than stuff. If it wasnt, then McClung from TB would be a 20 game winner annually, but he isnt.

 

As for your point the Red Sox are built on pitching, is that so terrible? It's literally impossible to write off the Red Sox right now, they have the chips to make moves, and talent in the system to move to the bigs.

Being built on pitching is a great thing, don't get me wrong, but undermining your offense in the process without an apparent offensive plan will detract from your pitching acquisitions. The sox got slower, more unathletic and more free-swinging in their lineup as well as less clutch. If you look at the teams that won based solely on pitching the last few yrs, they could do one of two things. They either were a power team able to win with the big inning or they were a team able to score a run when they really needed to with speed and precision bat handling. The sox have done neither to this point, and they havent made any indication that they will snap out of it. The fact is, the personell acquired in the offseason was questionable coming into the year on the offensive end. You got 3 guys who were coming off career worst seasons. It isnt like you nabbed the best of the best and hey are starting slowly. There is a real possibility that this is what you got. Once again, it is early, and I admit that, but the trends are there and they are glaring....

[MANNYHOF24]

so you were rather unimpressed with your own history making performance? You basically just shot yourself in the foot right there. Keep goin Bubba. Also, currently, the sox are not better than the yankees and I think most of the people on this site will agree. But it is May 1st at midnight and there is a lot of season to go. I am sorry for your girlfriend or your wife if you were able to convince the local dip s*** champ to enter into nuptuals, because she may never understand what real lovin is. You keep creamin the bed sheets with your prematurity....

 

Just because the yankees can score runs doesnt mean they are better than the sox, Once Coco Crisp comes back it has a huge ripple effect on the rest of the order, firstly you can put Youk down to Number 8 which with that OBP, that will help the order turn over. Manny will be better than 4-13, simply because he is crushing the ball lately, Even with 10 HRs Ortiz has not been hitting like he has. Tek will not hit .250 this season.

 

Now lets go to pitching

Schilling is better than Johnson

BEckett is better than Mussina decpite one horrible start in Cleavland, its safe to say that will not happen offten, I mean in that start he was throwing 98 with a good curve,

I give Wake the edge over Wang, only 1-4 but the team has only scored 7 runs in 5 starts

I will give an edge to Chacon over Clement (i cant defend Clement right now)

Wright is better than Dinardo, but if Clemens comes here our starting staff would be light years ahead of yours.

 

Bullpen

I know its one month but Papelbon has been better than anyone in Baseball including your beloved Rivera, who is 36 and may be on the decline

Foulke is back which gives us so much Flexibility, he can pitch the 7th and 8th and get Lefties out like crazy, I do really like Farnsworth for the Yankees though

This is were we have the Edge TIMLIN the Yankees dont have that, two reliable set up men which makes defeating the sox after the 6th inning nearly impossible

 

So tell with all that said, how is a laughing matter that I and others feel the Sox are worse than the Yanks, espcially since we are tied for first.

[ORS]

Maybe, maybe not. He is still getting the bat on the ball at a good rate (5Ks in close to 100ABs), but he cannot drive it with regularity, which you still need to do to get even a single. It looks like his thumb injury may be worse than expected or he could be aging and not able to deliver like he did before. His terrible SLG last yr is proving to be more of a fact than a fluke thus far.

You've already admitted, when pressed, that you don't watch that many Sox games, so your comment on Loretta's ability to drive the ball with regularity is flat out assumption based on statistics alone. He's hitting the ball hard in the majority of his ABs thus far, the ball just isn't finding a hole.

 

Not to mention, you aren't even looking at the stats correctly. SLG alone doesn't tell you much about power because it is a function of BA. IsoP tells you about true power. I know I've mentioned this to you before, but since you fail to respond/acknowledge, I guess I need to explain what that is. IsoP is SLG minus BA, or in other words, it is extra bases divided by at-bats.

 

Loretta's IsoP 2000-2006

 

Year     SLG     BA     IsoP

2000    .406    .281    .125
2001    .352    .289    .063
2002    .410    .304    .106
2003    .441    .314    .127
2004    .495    .335    .160
2005    .347    .280    .067
2006    .297    .218    .079 - small sample

 

His 2004 production is a clear anomaly, but the rest of the time he's fluctuated around his career IsoP of .106, which is what we are expecting now. Nobody, except maybe you, thinks he needs to hit like 2004 in order to not disappoint. I'll take his career line of .301/.365/.407, and based on what I've seen from him this year, it's really not a stretch to see that happening.

 

EDIT: I knew I could find it. Don't believe Loretta's been stroking the ball? THT keeps some batted ball type stats. Loretta is 3rd in the AL in LD%, the percentage of his balls in play that are line-drives. He's ahead of Jeter, Tejada, Shelton, and Gomes to name a few, and those guys are all off to blistering hot starts. The ball just needs to find a hole.

 

Link

 

Here's their description of their stat:

 

LD% - Line Drive Percentage. Baseball Info Solutions tracks the trajectory of each batted ball and categorizes it as a groundball, fly ball or line drive. LD% is the percent of batted balls that are line drives. Line drives are not necessarily the hardest hit balls, but they do fall for a hit around 75% of the time.

 

Loretta has put 93 balls into play with 20 falling for a hit. This excludes his HR because that is not a ball in play, and the hit total includes ground ball and fly ball hits. His LD% is 28.9, meaning he's hit 27 line-drives, which should result in 20 hits at a success rate of 75%. Thus, his LD hit total should be what his actual hit total is now and then you would add on GB and FG hits. Loretta will be fine IMO.

[TheRivernator]

You've already admitted, when pressed, that you don't watch that many Sox games, so your comment on Loretta's ability to drive the ball with regularity is flat out assumption based on statistics alone. He's hitting the ball hard in the majority of his ABs thus far, the ball just isn't finding a hole.

 

Not to mention, you aren't even looking at the stats correctly. SLG alone doesn't tell you much about power because it is a function of BA. IsoP tells you about true power. I know I've mentioned this to you before, but since you fail to respond/acknowledge, I guess I need to explain what that is. IsoP is SLG minus BA, or in other words, it is extra bases divided by at-bats.

 

Loretta's IsoP 2000-2006

 

Year     SLG     BA     IsoP

2000    .406    .281    .125
2001    .352    .289    .063
2002    .410    .304    .106
2003    .441    .314    .127
2004    .495    .335    .160
2005    .347    .280    .067
2006    .297    .218    .079 - small sample

 

His 2004 production is a clear anomaly, but the rest of the time he's fluctuated around his career IsoP of .106, which is what we are expecting now. Nobody, except maybe you, thinks he needs to hit like 2004 in order to not disappoint. I'll take his career line of .301/.365/.407, and based on what I've seen from him this year, it's really not a stretch to see that happening.

 

EDIT: I knew I could find it. Don't believe Loretta's been stroking the ball? THT keeps some batted ball type stats. Loretta is 3rd in the AL in LD%, the percentage of his balls in play that are line-drives. He's ahead of Jeter, Tejada, Shelton, and Gomes to name a few, and those guys are all off to blistering hot starts. The ball just needs to find a hole.

 

=1&orderBy=ldPcnt&direction=DESC]Link

 

Here's their description of their stat:

 

 

 

Loretta has put 93 balls into play with 20 falling for a hit. This excludes his HR because that is not a ball in play, and the hit total includes ground ball and fly ball hits. His LD% is 28.9, meaning he's hit 27 line-drives, which should result in 20 hits at a success rate of 75%. Thus, his LD hit total should be what his actual hit total is now and then you would add on GB and FG hits. Loretta will be fine IMO.

 

that is all well and good, but look at his trending thus far. Over his last 550 ABs, Loretta has lost all power capability. Trends are the way to go.

[ORS]

that is all well and good, but look at his trending thus far. Over his last 550 ABs, Loretta has lost all power capability. Trends are the way to go.

Man, you really don't get the point. I find it hard to believe you are actually going to be a doctor. Scary thought.

 

With a career .100 IsoP, he never had any power to begin with. He's line-drive hitter. Some will hit the gap for doubles, but most will end up being singles. Whether he's a .060 or a .120 IsoP hitter will be determined by how many find the gap. Frankly, I'm encouraged by the way he's hit the ball. Given time, those LDs will start finding holes and he'll move runners over and get on for Papi and Manny. And that is all I want out of him at the #2 hole.

[Buckeye]

This entire thread belongs in "Fights and Crap."

[Buckeye]

My opening salve was a shot over the bow of red sox nation, sparking the rivalry and this site into a frenzy for tomorrow...

 

As a full-time editor, I find this typo hilarious.

[riverside sluggers]

ooh boy, as a Sox fan its refreshing to see that Sheffield most likely wont be playing this series. He is the yankee bat I fear most, especially at Fenway Park. Probably will end up seeing Bernie in right, Giambi at DH, Phillips/Cairo at 1st base

 

Rotoworld: The New York Times reports that Gary Sheffield (hand) will likely miss the next two games.

Asked when Sheffield will return, manager Joe Torre said: "Whenever he can hold the bat. This may be a couple days." It's tough to lose Sheffield for games against the Red Sox, but the Yankees dodged a bullet with the severity of his injury.

[mtbykr]

Well if the sox continue their trend of run scoring in wake's starts---then tonight won't be pretty. However if the sox sweep this 2 game set, then there will be a lot of crow to eat come wed for all the yank fans on here!

[ORS]

ooh boy, as a Sox fan its refreshing to see that Sheffield most likely wont be playing this series. He is the yankee bat I fear most, especially at Fenway Park. Probably will end up seeing Bernie in right, Giambi at DH, Phillips/Cairo at 1st base

Damon and Bernie covering the bigger 2/3 of the Fenway OF? Anything to the wall should be a triple. I like it.