Official 2006 Spring Training Game Thread

[a700hitter]

I was encouraged by Schills outing today, he had great control in the first 3 innings, and sorta lost it in the 4th, but all in all I like what i saw for spring training. He hit between 90-94 on the radar gun. Most of his splitters had great dive on them, which was not the case at all last year.

It looked to me like he got a little tired in the 4th and lost the pop on his fastball and the dive on the split. It was pretty hot and sunny out there today, and Schilling actually ran out a grounder in the top of the 4th. He'll build the stamina, no question about it. The good news is that he is moving pain-free out there, which he has been unable to do since May 2004.

 

As for the top prospect Lester, who has been labeled as "untouchable" by fans on Sox boards all over the internet, he looked vewry touchable on the mound. He had poor command of his pitches. His velocity was very ordinary, and judging from the two hard hit extra base hits that he gave up he didn't have too much movement on his pitches. The HR hit against him was a screaming liner that I thought did not have enough height to get out. It was crushed. He's probably another Red Sox over-hyped prospect. Don't get too upset if they trade him at some point for a real major leaguer. It's the job of the FO to build up these guys and use them as trade bait. Tomorrow Papelbon goes again. I think that he is much closer to the real deal than Lester. Papelbon has much more velocity.

 

Edgar Martinez is a work in progress

 

Van Buren had some plus velocity today and good movement. The run that he gave up was tainted because the catcher, Concepcion was boxing balls around that inning and letting guys get extra-bases. The guy that scored should have been going to 3rd on the grounder instead of scoring.,

[riverside sluggers]

Yeah I guess one spring training game (2 innings total) can make the front office think, "even though he's been lights out thus far, this one appearance beckons that he could be a dud"

[The Monster is my Mom]

ya, i don't think a bad outing will make the FO give up on him. I think they figured he was a year or more out from the majors anyways. he'll get better.

[ORS]

Lester was one of the youngest pitchers in the EL and he lead it in SO and ERA for starters. That's not hype; that's performance. I'll take a year's worth of stats over two innings in March.

[a700hitter]

Lester was one of the youngest pitchers in the EL and he lead it in SO and ERA for starters. That's not hype; that's performance. I'll take a year's worth of stats over two innings in March.

I am just going by what my eyes told me from seeing him up close and personal. He might make the majors eventually, and he might be pretty good, but he has a long way to go because he doesn't have lights out stuff. I could see him being a John Tudor-type lefty, but Tudor didn't become Tudor over night either. He's going to have to get better command and it will take some time to for him to master his skill. He's a good couple of years away. Those who think he might contribute to the ml team this year will be disappointed.

 

BTW By the time Lester entered the game, the most of the Pirate starters were out of the game. He was facing their minor leaguers. If he was the Bomb, he should have done better. They tore him up pretty good.

[jsinger121]

It looked to me like he got a little tired in the 4th and lost the pop on his fastball and the dive on the split. It was pretty hot and sunny out there today, and Schilling actually ran out a grounder in the top of the 4th. He'll build the stamina, no question about it. The good news is that he is moving pain-free out there, which he has been unable to do since May 2004.

 

As for the top prospect Lester, who has been labeled as "untouchable" by fans on Sox boards all over the internet, he looked vewry touchable on the mound. He had poor command of his pitches. His velocity was very ordinary, and judging from the two hard hit extra base hits that he gave up he didn't have too much movement on his pitches. The HR hit against him was a screaming liner that I thought did not have enough height to get out. It was crushed. He's probably another Red Sox over-hyped prospect. Don't get too upset if they trade him at some point for a real major leaguer. It's the job of the FO to build up these guys and use them as trade bait. Tomorrow Papelbon goes again. I think that he is much closer to the real deal than Lester. Papelbon has much more velocity.

 

Edgar Martinez is a work in progress

 

Van Buren had some plus velocity today and good movement. The run that he gave up was tainted because the catcher, Concepcion was boxing balls around that inning and letting guys get extra-bases. The guy that scored should have been going to 3rd on the grounder instead of scoring.,

 

 

You really know nothing about the Red Sox prospects. Every baseball publication has Lester the second the best Lefthander in the minors. So what if he got hit around alittle in a spring training game. Every pitcher gets hit around in spring training. He is not overhyped at all. Every team in baseball would love to have a Jon Lester in their system.

[a700hitter]

You really know nothing about the Red Sox prospects. Every baseball publication has Lester the second the best Lefthander in the minors. So what if he got hit around alittle in a spring training game. Every pitcher gets hit around in spring training. He is not overhyped at all. Every team in baseball would love to have a Jon Lester in their system.

JSinger, Have you seen Lester pitch? I was about 80 feet from home plate. I am not a professional scout, but I am just telling you what I saw. He didn't just have a bad outing. He showed nothing special in the outing. Command, velocity and movement were not there. The Pirates minor leaguers abused him. Lester is not a major leaguer, so he is out there to impress management. He's not out there just for the work.

 

BTW I saw another former Red Sox prospect that was highly rated by baseball publications--- Freddie Sanchez. He's the Bomb too.

 

Prospects usually don't pan out, so I don't get too excited about them. If one of the current crop turns out to be really good, I'll be happy. My money is on Papelbon.

[jsinger121]

One freaking out was bad. Big Freaking deal. Even the best pitchers in the world have gotten hit around before. Lester is 21, Lefthanded, and has 3 solid pitches. and yes i have seen him pitch before and I am very impressed by him. I also do not jump on a guy for one bad start in a spring training game either. Their is a reason why the red sox have refused to trade him and thats because he can be a very good pitcher. They refused to part with him in the Beckett deal for good reason. And I will doubt they will trade him unless they get a young ace in return which is very unlikely to happen. Good young pitching is very hard to find and when you can develop good ones you hold on to them.

[a700hitter]

He's a good couple of years away, and anything can happen in 2 or 3 years. Fortunes at the minor league level change very quickly. After seeing him today, I realized that he is not the almost-finished product that I had been reading about. He won't be at Fenway anytime soon.

[jsinger121]

Of course he is not a finished product. I never said he was. But I also wouldn't say he is a good 2-3 years away. More like he could be up late this year much like Papelbon was brought up and then he will likely be brought up in 2007 for good. He is a better pitcher than you think. You might not think highly of him but alot of people including myself do. And no Freddy Sanchez was not highly thought of around the minors. He was only the Red Sox best prospect because the farm system was ridiculously weak. If Sanchez was in our farm system right now he wouldn't even crack the top 10.

[Cityofchampions33]

I am not a professional scout, but I am just telling you what I saw. He didn't just have a bad outing. He showed nothing special in the outing.

 

Well, thank god you are not a scout. I seriously doubt 2 innings would tip the scale of numerous professional praises and success in the MiL's. Also I have seen him pitch in Portland, midseason and his stuff was nasty. Hell he was throwin his LOW-90's heater by every hitter there and his breakin pitches were foolin everyone along with his change-up. Yes, it was AA hitetrs but your judging on stuff, command, and movement. So what if he gives up a few bombs, it's in SPRING TRAINING, it's not like its friggin May or June, and even so, every pitcher has a bad day. However in no way am I saying he's an ace as of now.

[a700hitter]

Prospects are always a long shot. How highly rated were Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr when they were traded for Pedro? Pedro spent 7 years in Boston, became a legend and went to the Mets for a year, and neither Pavano or Armas has yet cracked .500 as a major leaguer. Don't get your hopes up about Lester. By this time next year, he could fall to the the top 25 prospects.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Are you seriously basing all of this on a rough Spring Training outing?

[a700hitter]

Well, thank god you are not a scout. I seriously doubt 2 innings would tip the scale of numerous professional praises and success in the MiL's. Also I have seen him pitch in Portland, midseason and his stuff was nasty. Hell he was throwin his LOW-90's heater by every hitter there and his breakin pitches were foolin everyone along with his change-up. Yes, it was AA hitetrs but your judging on stuff, command, and movement. So what if he gives up a few bombs, it's in SPRING TRAINING, it's not like its friggin May or June, and even so, every pitcher has a bad day. However in no way am I saying he's an ace as of now.

I agree that he is a fine minor league pitcher, but he is far from a can't miss major league prospect.

[jsinger121]

Carl Pavano was the 17th Best Prospect in Baseball according to BA in 1997 while Tony Armas Jr. didn't crack the top 100. The Red Sox got lucky to get Pedro because he the expos wanted to trade him to the Guardians for a package of Jaret Wright but the Guardians refused after wright was good in the playoffs.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

I agree that he is a fine minor league pitcher, but he is far from a can't miss major league prospect.

 

ORS, I think I remember reading something you posted about a statistic called "stuff," which was mainly used on minor league pitchers. I think you said 25 was average, 30 was can't-miss, and Lester was a 35. If you're reading this, could you repost that?

[a700hitter]

Oh, so your point is that top 10 prospects always make it as stars in the major leagues? Unfortunately, that is not true. Many top 10 prospects fall out of the top 10 while still in the minor leagues. Scouting baseball is a very imprecise art. Prospects are long shots. Very few truly are can't miss major league stars. In all my years of following the Red Sox, the only pitchers that came out of the system and made it to star status with the Red Sox for an extended period were Bruce Hurst and Roger Clemens, and the Mets had passed on Clemens. That's not a lot in 38 years of following the team, so pardon me for not getting all excited about this current crop of young arms. I have seen other crops whither and die.

[ORS]

I don't recall posting that. I'm familiar with stuff rating, a BP metric that measures dominance, but I've yet to find stuff ratings for MiLB players. I'll look around though. FWIW, Lester's 50% PECOTA projection has his "stuff" at 12 for 2006 (all levels).

 

I just found it, it was a post by ksushi in the Barry Zito to Red Sox? thread in the Rumors forum.

 

EDIT: Stuff Rating @ BP.com

 

STUFF: A rough indicator of the pitcher's overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. "10" is league average, while "0" is roughly replacement level. The formula is as follows: Stuff = EqK9 * 6 - 1.333 * (EqERA + PERA) - 3 * EqBB9 - 5 * EqHR9 -3 * MAX{6-IP/G),0}

[KeepTheFaith1229]

I don't recall posting that. I'm familiar with stuff rating, a BP metric that measures dominance, but I've yet to find stuff ratings for MiLB players. I'll look around though. FWIW, Lester's 50% PECOTA projection has his "stuff" at 12 for 2006 (all levels).

 

I just found it, it was a post by ksushi in the Barry Zito to Red Sox? thread in the Rumors forum.

 

My bad, for some reason I thought that was you who posted that.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Originally posted by ksushi

My friend dave is a big numbers nerd and he was talking to me a little while ago about a stat in baseball prospectus called 'stuff' Its basically every pitching stat combined into one and it comes out with one convient little number that gives you a pretty accurate judge of how effective the pitcher is. I don't know something like that, but its mostly used for minor league prospects. A 'stuff' rating of 25 is really good, 30 is can't miss. Jon Lester has a 35. Thats all i know about it, but thats awesome. No way do I give that up for Zito.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

I don't recall posting that. I'm familiar with stuff rating, a BP metric that measures dominance, but I've yet to find stuff ratings for MiLB players. I'll look around though. FWIW, Lester's 50% PECOTA projection has his "stuff" at 12 for 2006 (all levels).

 

I just found it, it was a post by ksushi in the Barry Zito to Red Sox? thread in the Rumors forum.

 

EDIT: Stuff Rating @ BP.com

 

I think it's a different stat because in KSushi's stat, the relevance of the numbers is much different.

[a700hitter]

If it was as easy as a formula, teams would hire actuaries instead of scouts.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

When did I say we don't need scouts?

[a700hitter]

When did I say we don't need scouts?

You didn't. I was being sarcastic. Any formulaic indicator of major league success for pitchers would be extremely unreliable.

[riverside sluggers]

Yawn, thats all I have to say about this. I'll keep note that you put Lester down for a debut not until 2008 or 09. Anything close to last year's numbers, and we could be seeing him make his debut in the 2nd half.

 

I do think that a positive can be that in his 2nd inning, despite the HR, he had settled down more. Two of his last 3 batters went down by the way of the K.

[ORS]

If it was as easy as a formula, teams would hire actuaries instead of scouts.

Bill James has a job for a reason. Scouting is vital, but every team employs statisticians who are constantly creating newer and better statistical tools for modeling performance on the field. The Sox hired Bill James, the father of modern statistical analysis (sabermetrics); the Cardinals hired Micheal G. Lichtman, referred to as MGL, the creator of UZR (ultimate zone rating) which is considered the best defensive statistic ever created. The list goes on and on. Scouting identifies the those with the tools to perform. Stats guys identify those that are actually performing. Teams need both.

[Cityofchampions33]

All 700 is saying is the obvious, he's saying Lester isn't ready yet and that not every prospect makes it. It's not like he said he'll a bad prospect, however I do disagree that he has 2-3 years until he reaches the Majors. I mean do you have any idea how much a prsopect can develop?

[riverside sluggers]

Good to hear, Lenny DiNardo is back in camp in Ft Myers. As expected, his Italy team was bumped out early.

 

Adam Stern from Canada, and non-roster Trent Durrington from Australia should arrive sometime this week.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Last Sunday when the Sox played Aussie, who did Trent play for?

[a700hitter]

All 700 is saying is the obvious, he's saying Lester isn't ready yet and that not every prospect makes it. It's not like he said he'll a bad prospect, however I do disagree that he has 2-3 years until he reaches the Majors. I mean do you have any idea how much a prsopect can develop?

That's all I was saying, and I agree that he could get to the majors faster than 2-3 years, but I don't think he will be a major contributor before 2-3 years.