Sox in '06, how I see it playing out...

[SCM33]

This is what I see in 06':

 

There will be some controversy in this, so bear with me.

*Put together a package including Arroyo and somebody else, not sure who at this time for Seattle since they had interest in Bronson. We get Reed in return who Seattle is disappointed in. I actually like Reeds numbers from last year and think he will significantly improve, his OB% was decent and he is a good defensive OF.

*Manny and Clement in a deal that brings back Tejada and Matos, as been reported. Matos is a free swinger and Baltimore is looking to deal him. He is a proven ballplayer however and can help us now. We wont get their top OF prospect. Thats a pipedream.

*Sign Snow

*Pick up Craig Wilson when he becomes available since PITTS has an abundance of OF. Wilson will most likely be cut or dealt.

 

RH Lineup:

1. Nixon RF

2. Loretta 2B

3. Ortiz DH

4. Tejada SS

5. Tek C

6. Lowell 3B

7. Snow 1B

8. Reed CF

9. Matos LF

 

LH Lineup

1.Youkilis 1B

2. Loretta 2B

3. Ortiz DH

4. Tejada SS

5. Tek C

6. Wilson RF

7. Lowell 3B

8. Reed CF

9. Matos LF

 

Bench:

Nixon/Wilson platoon RF

Snow Youkilis platoon 1B

Graffy/Cora INF

Stern OF

Shoppach C

 

Rotation:

Beckett

Schilling

Wakefield

Papelbon

Dinardo

 

Bullpen:

Timlin

Mota

Hansen S

Seanez

LH or Van Buren

Foulke

 

*Obviously the first problem is there is no lefty in the bullpen. Sox teams in the past have proven however that you do not necessarily HAVE to have a lefty in the pen. It would be nice but Dinardo is hardly a lefty specialist (he has reverse splits) and I see him in the roation anyway. If you have guys who can get people out, it shouldnt matter.

*The second problem is having Hansen and Van Buren in the bullpen as rookies. Van Buren isnt a true rookie, and has dominated the minor leagues.

*Dinardo in the rotation could be a problem, however he has done nothing but get hitters out in Boston and in Pawtucket. He had a very good season last year in AAA and could be a surprise. Theo was very high on him.

*Dealing both Clement and Arroyo hurts, but I think its necessary. Clement has to go, and I would love to hold on to Bronson, but Paps should be in the rotation and Dinardo could very well do good.

*I think Shoppach sticks with the big team because he has the most upsdie and has knuckleball experiance.

*Cora and Graffy dont both make the team. One is gone.

*Marte is in AAA or dealt, maybe in the Seattle deal so we hold on to our arms.

*The bullpen could be unreliable. Timlin is getting older, Seanez has injury problems, Mota is inconsistant, and we know what happened to Foulke last year.

*I like Nixon leadoff. He doesnt have speed, but he has good on base skills and doesnt hit for enough power to be in a power position anyway.

*Who knows what we get out of Lowell, we are stuck with him.

*Matos can be a productive hitter and I think Reed will only get better.

*Dinardo is the #5 starter assuming Wells is dealt for a bag of balls, or retires. Either way Wells is not back.

 

I think this is a very realistic team and while its not sexy, I think it can be a productive group of 25 ballplayers with some interesting angles.

[example1]

This is what I see in 06':

 

There will be some controversy in this, so bear with me.

*Put together a package including Arroyo and somebody else, not sure who at this time for Seattle since they had interest in Bronson. We get Reed in return who Seattle is disappointed in. I actually like Reeds numbers from last year and think he will significantly improve, his OB% was decent and he is a good defensive OF.

*Manny and Clement in a deal that brings back Tejada and Matos, as been reported. Matos is a free swinger and Baltimore is looking to deal him. He is a proven ballplayer however and can help us now. We wont get their top OF prospect. Thats a pipedream.

*Sign Snow

*Pick up Craig Wilson when he becomes available since PITTS has an abundance of OF. Wilson will most likely be cut or dealt.

 

All that sounds okay, so far

RH Lineup:

1. Nixon RF

2. Loretta 2B

3. Ortiz DH

4. Tejada SS

5. Tek C

6. Lowell 3B

7. Snow 1B

8. Reed CF

9. Matos LF

 

I don't like Snow starting 4 out of 5 days. Youkilis deserves the starting slot, RHP/LHP be damned.

 

LH Lineup

1.Youkilis 1B

2. Loretta 2B

3. Ortiz DH

4. Tejada SS

5. Tek C

6. Wilson RF

7. Lowell 3B

8. Reed CF

9. Matos LF

 

This lineup won't win too many games, but it will do for one year.

Bench:

Nixon/Wilson platoon RF

Snow Youkilis platoon 1B

Graffy/Cora INF

Stern OF

Shoppach C

 

Stern isn't making it if we have Wilson. We don't need them both and we need Cora and Graff more.

Rotation:

Beckett

Schilling

Wakefield

Papelbon

Dinardo

 

Why not bring up Lester if Dinardo is going to start? That would solve our LHP in the bullpen and get the better pitcher on the mound more often.

 

Bullpen:

Timlin

Mota

Hansen S

Seanez

LH or Van Buren

Foulke

Looks about right. Hansen may start out in AA/AAA but he will be there eventually.

 

*Obviously the first problem is there is no lefty in the bullpen. Sox teams in the past have proven however that you do not necessarily HAVE to have a lefty in the pen. It would be nice but Dinardo is hardly a lefty specialist (he has reverse splits) and I see him in the roation anyway. If you have guys who can get people out, it shouldnt matter.

While it is okay to not have a lefty, it is unadvisable. I can't think of the sox teams you are referring to (since the only ones that have really "Proved" anything are the 04 team, perhaps 03). Maybe you're right though.

 

*The second problem is having Hansen and Van Buren in the bullpen as rookies. Van Buren isnt a true rookie, and has dominated the minor leagues.

*Dinardo in the rotation could be a problem, however he has done nothing but get hitters out in Boston and in Pawtucket. He had a very good season last year in AAA and could be a surprise. Theo was very high on him.

Again, if we're using dinardo, I'm just for using Lester.

 

*Dealing both Clement and Arroyo hurts, but I think its necessary. Clement has to go, and I would love to hold on to Bronson, but Paps should be in the rotation and Dinardo could very well do good.

*I think Shoppach sticks with the big team because he has the most upsdie and has knuckleball experiance.

*Cora and Graffy dont both make the team. One is gone.

*Marte is in AAA or dealt, maybe in the Seattle deal so we hold on to our arms.

Stern makes the team, and either Graff or Cora aren't there, and Marte is in AAA or dealt? That doesn't make sense to me. Keep Marte, utilize both Cora and Graff as SS platoon/late inning replacements.

*The bullpen could be unreliable. Timlin is getting older, Seanez has injury problems, Mota is inconsistant, and we know what happened to Foulke last year.

I think all the work they did this offseason thus far has tried to address this problem. Timlin may be getting older but he's a horse, Seanez hopefully will stay healthy, Mota could find form, and Foulke... well, we'll have to see about him. I agree, questionable bullpen.

 

*I like Nixon leadoff. He doesnt have speed, but he has good on base skills and doesnt hit for enough power to be in a power position anyway.

*Who knows what we get out of Lowell, we are stuck with him.

*Matos can be a productive hitter and I think Reed will only get better.

*Dinardo is the #5 starter assuming Wells is dealt for a bag of balls, or retires. Either way Wells is not back.

I like Nixon leadoff too, in theory. however, this will be the slowest team in the history of baseball. Who is their fastest starter? Loretta? Reed? We won't be scoring unless we hit a double with a man on 2b or get our guys to third. that concerns me.

I think this is a very realistic team and while its not sexy, I think it can be a productive group of 25 ballplayers with some interesting angles.

 

Yeah, they'll probably win 85-90 games and miss the playoffs, but with the potential to do much much better the following year with some aggressive FA signings, some trades and the continued improvement of our youngsters (Marte, Lester, Papelbon, Pedroia, etc.,)

[SCM33]

While it is okay to not have a lefty, it is unadvisable. I can't think of the sox teams you are referring to (since the only ones that have really "Proved" anything are the 04 team, perhaps 03). Maybe you're right though. QUOTE]

 

I was thinking back to the Kerrigan days, when we would use Garces to face Lefthanded hitters. We didnt have a lefty during those years and still led MLB in most pitching categories for a 2 or 3 year span.

 

 

 

EDIT: I was wrong, they didnt lead MLB, but still had some decent staffs without a true lefty.

[SCM33]

mlbtraderumors.com: Cubs/Red Sox/Mariners Trade Possible

 

A reliable source told me today about a three-way deal that is "imminent." It's always risky to throw around "imminent," but I'm just quoting him here.

 

Here's the scenario:

 

BOS gives: Bronson Arroyo, Tony Graffanino, PTBNL

 

BOS gets: Jeremy Reed, Will Ohman

 

CHC gives: Corey Patterson, Ohman

 

CHC gets: Raul Ibanez, Graffanino, cash

 

SEA gives: Reed, Ibanez, cash

 

SEA gets: Arroyo, Patterson, PTBNL

 

Let's evaluate. There's no doubt the Cubs would be making out like bandits in this trade. Corey Patterson is useless to them, even as a fourth outfielder. 28 year-old lefty Ohman tossed a solid 43 innings this year, and seems recovered from his January 2002 Tommy John surgery.

 

But Chicago's bounty seems to outweigh the former phenom and useful southpaw. Ibanez is on the hook for just $4.25MM in 2006, and the 33 year-old is probably good for a .290/.350/.460 line in 2006. He played 55 games in left field for the Mariners in 2005. I've projected him at .288 with 21 HR, 84 RBI, 89 runs, and 8 steals for 2006. Graffanino could probably chip in with some decent on-base skills from 2B or a utility role.

 

My Arroyo projection has him leading the Red Sox in wins with 16. Arroyo does a good job limiting his baserunners and should have an ERA under 4. I don't think Safeco would have a major effect on his numbers. Reed should continue to improve all facets of his game in '06, and would be a nice pickup for the Red Sox.

 

There may be a holdup in the deal because the Red Sox want to trade before Graffanino and Arroyo hit arbitration, and the Cubs want to wait. The word is that Mariners GM Bill Bavasi is strangely infatuated with Corey Patterson. If that's the case, Hendry should strike while the iron is hot. I don't have any information on where Matt Murton would find himself if the proposed trade takes place, but he wouldn't have a starting gig for the Cubs.

 

Kind of reinforces some of the points I was making yesterday.

[Beckett95]

1. The Boston Globe reports that the Red Sox, Dodgers and A's have discussed a three-way deal that would send David Wells to the Dodgers and prospects to the A's. Boston would receive a corner outfielder from the Dodgers plus a player from Oakland.

 

Make this deal something like....

 

LAD gets---David Wells

BOS gets---Justin Duchscherer, Jayson Werth

OAK gets---Jonathan Broxton, Etanislao Abreu

 

2. Make the mlbtraderumors proposed 3 team deal with the Cubs and Mariners...

 

BOS gets--- Jeremy Reed, Will Ohman

CHC gets--- Raul Ibanez, Graffanino, Cash

SEA gets--- Arroyo, Patterson, Jeremy West and John Leicester

 

3. Sign Alex Gonzalez for 2 years at 8$ million. I dont care what anyone thinks, hes a much better SS than Alex Cora. He has a lot more potential as a hitter and is already great defensively. Last year he hit .268 which was his best AVG. so far and 2 years ago he hit 23 homeruns.

 

Scouting Report on Gonzalez before 2005 season..

On the negative side, Gonzalez still never has drawn more than 33 walks in a season, and last year he ranked last in the majors in on-base percentage. However, the Marlins have stuck with him because they view him as the most dangerous No. 8 hitter in the game. A trained mistake hitter, Gonzalez needs to do a better job tracking quality breaking balls on the outer half. Deceptively strong, he tends to grow enamored with his power stroke at the expense of situational hitting. Righthanders ate him up by preying on his unwillingness to take balls off the plate. Lacking the speed to leg out hits, he is prone to long slumps.

For a middle infielder, Gonzalez never has been much of a basestealer, and his baserunning is just decent. His defense has been Gold Glove quality for the past few years, but the rest of the league is still figuring that out. He has a cannon arm and has thrown runners out from his knees from deep in the hole on several occasions. He cut down on the sloppy errors that had plagued him in the past and tied a career-low with just 16 miscues.

 

LINEUP

1. Mark Loretta—2B—R

2. Kevin Youkilis—1B—R

3. David Ortiz—DH—L

4. Manny Ramirez—LF—R

5. Trot Nixon—RF—L

6. Mike Lowell—3B—R

7. Jason Varitek—C—S

8. Alex Gonzalez—SS—R

9. Jeremy Reed—CF—L

 

BENCH

John Flaherty—C—R

Jayson Werth—OF—R

Alex Cora—IF—L

J.T. Snow—1B—L

Adam Stern—CF—L

 

BULLPEN

MRP—Justin Duchscherer—R

MRP—Will Ohman—L

MRP—Rudy Seanez—R

SU—Mike Timlin—R

SU—Guillermo Mota—R

CL—Keith Foulke—R

 

ROTATION

1. Curt Schilling—R

2. Josh Beckett—R

3. Tim Wakefield—R

4. Matt Clement—R

5. Jon Papelbon—R

 

 

We'd have a solid rotation, an above-average lineup, a very deep bench and probably the best bullpen in baseball.

[RedSoxRooter]

 

LINEUP

1. Mark Loretta—2B—R

2. Kevin Youkilis—1B—R

3. David Ortiz—DH—L

4. Manny Ramirez—LF—R

5. Trot Nixon—RF—L

6. Mike Lowell—3B—R

7. Jason Varitek—C—S

8. Alex Gonzalez—SS—R

9. Jeremy Reed—CF—L

 

I like everything you said. My only change would be to have Youk leading off and Loretta second. Loretta is a perfect #2 and of all the moving pieces, Youk makes more sense to me as leadoff. Actually, I remember when Jed/Ben were talking during the Damon press conference. They made a point of saying "there are different kinds of leadoff hitters, different ways to get on base". Youk could easily have the power numbers of Damon. His career OBP is .376, SLG .411 (Damon was .366/.439 in 2005 and both numbers were higher than his career numbers). This of course means that Youk can get on base about as much as Damon, therefore score for Ortiz and Manny.

 

Speed's a huge difference on the bases but Loretta can bunt. I'm a little worried about Youk at 1b, but I'll give him a shot.

 

Anyway, that makes more sense to me.

[Cityofchampions33]

I like both of those rumors and I think the lineup would look like so

 

1) Loretta, ss

2) Reed, cf

3) Ortiz, dh

4) Ramirez, lf

5) Lowell, 3b

6) Nixon/Werth, rf

7) Varitek, c

8) Youkilis, 1b

9) Graffanino, 2b

[SCM33]

Well Manny really screwed up what I thought would happen.

 

*I dont see Graffy on the team

* I dont see Loretta at SS

*I dont see Loretta Batting Leadoff, or Reed 2nd.

 

I see Youk 1, Loretta 2, and Reed about 8 or 9. Youk has the on base skills and Loretta is a perfect #2 hitter.

[riverside sluggers]

Most of us agree on Loretta leading off because in 137 games when he has led off, .298 batting avg with a .365 OBP. Lorett and Youk should give a good 1-2 combo of batters who can get on base before Ortiz and Manny. Either way is fine for the top 2 of the batting order.

[SCM33]

I only argue Loretta #2 because I think he has better contact skills then Youkilis. If Youk gets on in front of Loretta, I think there is a better chance Loretta moves him over to second with a hit, walk, or productive out.

 

If Loretta leads off I think Youkilis is less likely to move him over with a productive out or some sort of production. I am not sure if there is a way to measure this because of Youkilis's lack of experiance and lack of AB's. I know ESPN has a section on "productive outs". I guess this is more a matter of personal opinion at this point however.

[ORS]

Good point about the contact comparison. Youk has 5.36 PA/K (8.54 in MiLB ), while Loretta has 10.80 PA/K (10.67 in MiLB ). However, Youk has a 0.67 career GO/FO, while Loretta's is 0.87 (based on incomplete data since they didn't keep GO and FO data before 1999). So, Loretta is more likely to GIDP. It could go either way. These two, as it stands right now, should without a doubt be at the top of the order.