Alex Rodriguez wins AL MVP

[MC Hammer]

So?!?! Ortiz had more personality in clutch situations!

I guess thats supposed to be sarcasm ...

 

I guess it could be funny, but for it to be funny Arod would have to have better clutch stats than Ortiz ... which he doesn't ... so ... ?

[He Hate Me]

I really have no problem with a-rod winning. The issue here, is why writers don't judge who is best for their position. The DH is a position created by MLB, not Ortiz or the Sox. It is a position, and old school sportswriters need to accept that fact. If you believe the argument that a third baseman does more work than a DH then consequently a catcher does more than a third baseman. I don't agree with discounting Ortiz from the MVP because he is a DH anymore than I agree with discounting Rivera from the Cy Young because he is a relief pitcher.

 

I can see your line of thought on this one and I for the most part agree with it. Just to point out though, because their offensive stats were so similar, ARod got the edge because he plays a position (any position) in the field. I'm sure if there was a catcher with stats similar to ARod, he might get the nod over him because he plays a more challenging position.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I can see your line of thought on this one and I for the most part agree with it. Just to point out though, because their offensive stats were so similar, ARod got the edge because he plays a position (any position) in the field. I'm sure if there was a catcher with stats similar to ARod, he might get the nod over him because he plays a more challenging position.

 

So when it comes down to it here is the argument.....both players are even statistically so whats more important.....

 

Playing 3B or coming up with game winning hits.

Catching a baseball several times a game or delivering the game winning hit.

Making a few throws or DELIVERING THE GAME WINNING HIT.

[He Hate Me]

So when it comes down to it here is the argument.....both players are even statistically so whats more important.....

 

Playing 3B or coming up with game winning hits.

Catching a baseball several times a game or delivering the game winning hit.

Making a few throws or DELIVERING THE GAME WINNING HIT.

 

Without guys playing good defense, you might never get a chance to get the game winning hit. A lot of things have to happen that are created by Ortiz's teammates in order for him to be in that situation in the first place, and playing good defense is one of them. I can understand your enthusiasm for Ortiz, and I wouldnt have a problem with him as MVP as I have said before, but him being put in that situation to deliver a clutch hit in the first place is the result of hardwork from the guys playing on the field.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Without guys playing good defense, you might never get a chance to get the game winning hit. A lot of things have to happen that are created by Ortiz's teammates in order for him to be in that situation in the first place, and playing good defense is one of them. I can understand your enthusiasm for Ortiz, and I wouldnt have a problem with him as MVP as I have said before, but him being put in that situation to deliver a clutch hit in the first place is the result of hardwork from the guys playing on the field.

 

Yes I agree, we had a wonderful defense?? Or was it our pitching that was so good?? Wait what the hell are you talking about?? We have a horrible defense and struggled all season with pitching (due to injuries) so without Ortiz bringing in that last run to win 7-6 you think our defense would save us?? Without Ortiz we don't win...period. The pitching, defense, and Mark Bellhorn wouldn't save us last season so I'm not sure what you are saying?? If we don't have Ortiz we don't have 90 wins and don't make the playoffs. I'm sure a stellar defensive player at 3B would make the difference?? Come to think of it, Bill Mueller was our 2nd best defensive player last season (behind V-Tek) and we still gave up a ton of runs a game. Sooooo.....whats your argument??

[ARod2212]

Forget the defense. Rodriguez still hit better than Ortiz over the course of the entire season.

 

A DH can certainly win MVP, but he's going to have to have better offensive statsistics than his competitors.

[He Hate Me]

Yes I agree, we had a wonderful defense?? Or was it our pitching that was so good?? Wait what the hell are you talking about?? We have a horrible defense and struggled all season with pitching (due to injuries) so without Ortiz bringing in that last run to win 7-6 you think our defense would save us?? Without Ortiz we don't win...period. The pitching, defense, and Mark Bellhorn wouldn't save us last season so I'm not sure what you are saying?? If we don't have Ortiz we don't have 90 wins and don't make the playoffs. I'm sure a stellar defensive player at 3B would make the difference?? Come to think of it, Bill Mueller was our 2nd best defensive player last season (behind V-Tek) and we still gave up a ton of runs a game. Sooooo.....whats your argument??

 

Alright I give up with you. You refuse to see the importance of defense and how its team play that gives Ortiz the opportunity to deliver those clutch hits. Go back to playing rotisserie baseball.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Excellent! So now that He Hate Me believes its everyone else that makes Ortiz so good and he's basically lucky to get in the way of always winning games (he just magically ends up in the right place at the right time and always delivers). ARod2212 has now ruled out the fact that defense is important in the decision making so you can permanently rule that out as a factor. A-Rod posted better stats......did he?? Better "major category" stats but when it comes to the moments it truely matters (in a 6-5 game as opposed to a 17-3 game) everyone would take Ortiz over A-Rod. Maybe He Hate Me is right and its just that Ortiz faces weak relievers since they are clearly worse than starting pitchers (Rivera??).

[ARod2212]

No, this 'truly matters' is ********. The entire season matters. And across the entire 2005 season, Rodriguez was better in every category.

 

"Ortiz hit better on Tuesdays .vs teams over .500, 2 days before a full moon." Who cares? The award is not clutch player of the year, it is most valuable for the entire season. Rodriguez was more valuable for the entire 2005 season.

 

And I'm certainly not ruling out defense, but you are getting so hung up on it, let's just forget about that part for now. Even besides the point that Rodriguez played defense, he was STILL more valuable than Ortiz.

[He Hate Me]

Excellent! So now that He Hate Me believes its everyone else that makes Ortiz so good and he's basically lucky to get in the way of always winning games (he just magically ends up in the right place at the right time and always delivers). ARod2212 has now ruled out the fact that defense is important in the decision making so you can permanently rule that out as a factor. A-Rod posted better stats......did he?? Better "major category" stats but when it comes to the moments it truely matters (in a 6-5 game as opposed to a 17-3 game) everyone would take Ortiz over A-Rod. Maybe He Hate Me is right and its just that Ortiz faces weak relievers since they are clearly worse than starting pitchers (Rivera??).

 

I've already conceded to you, go build a team of sluggers with no defense and tell me how that works out for you.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

No, this 'truly matters' is ********. The entire season matters. And across the entire 2005 season, Rodriguez was better in every category.

 

"Ortiz hit better on Tuesdays .vs teams over .500, 2 days before a full moon." Who cares? The award is not clutch player of the year, it is most valuable for the entire season. Rodriguez was more valuable for the entire 2005 season.

 

And I'm certainly not ruling out defense, but you are getting so hung up on it, let's just forget about that part for now. Even besides the point that Rodriguez played defense, he was STILL more valuable than Ortiz.

 

A-Rod had 1 more home run than Ortiz....meanwhile Ortiz had 18 more RBI even though he had 4 less at-bats and 14 less hits than A-Rod. Another nice stat is Ortiz was .352 with RISP. Rodriguez batted .290 with RISP. A-Rod struck out more....Ortiz had more walks (even with all those great pitches he sees with Manny behind him). A-Rod had a better overall average.

 

....I'm just not seeing where A-Rod had a better overall offensive season?? Guess it depends what you find more valuable....knocking in more runs or....well I guess knocking in more runs

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

Whats the OBP and SLG for both players?

[ARod2212]

A-Rod had 1 more home run than Ortiz....meanwhile Ortiz had 18 more RBI even though he had 4 less at-bats and 14 less hits than A-Rod. Another nice stat is Ortiz was .352 with RISP. Rodriguez batted .290 with RISP. A-Rod struck out more....Ortiz had more walks (even with all those great pitches he sees with Manny behind him). A-Rod had a better overall average.

 

....I'm just not seeing where A-Rod had a better overall offensive season?? Guess it depends what you find more valuable....knocking in more runs or....well I guess knocking in more runs

Well, here in the 21st century statistics like On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage (and the two added together) are far more telling than RISP or RBIs. They give you some percentages of the batter's success at the plate.

 

I'll bold the leaders in each stat to make it easier for you..

 

Rodriguez- .421 OBP, .610 SLG, 1.031 OPS

Ortiz- .397 OBP, .604 SLG, 1.001 OPS

 

 

As for the part I bolded in your post, isn't it a clue that you need to go looking to some nice stats for Ortiz? Rodriguez led in 8 major categories (including the 3 most telling which I highlighted), Ortiz led in RBIs, doubles and walks.

 

http://www.hei.lv/labirints/bildes/head_up_ass.jpg

[ORS]

If I'm comparing the two of them based solely on their performance at the plate, then I'd say they had fairly equal seasons when the data is given a brief analysis.

 

The major rate stats go to ARod,

 

ARod: .321/.421/.610/1.031

Ortiz: .300/.397/.604/1.001

 

but it's fairly evident that the OBP & OPS gaps were driven by BA, meaning he only did one thing better than Oritz, which was hit for a higher average. SLG is such a marginal difference that it is irrelevant, but this means that Ortiz (.304) lead ARod (.289) in ISO (SLG - BA), which measures true power. The ISO gap was due to the fact that Ortiz only had 6 fewer bases despite getting 14 fewer hits.

 

ARod had 1 more homerun, and a better homerun rate, 12.604 to 12.787 HR/AB, but Ortiz had 10 more XBHs. I'll be generous and say 1 HR is equivalent to 11 2B, which were the differences in the XBH categories.

 

ARod stole 21 bases to Ortiz's 1, and I don't know how the hell he got one, so to this point, ARod has bested Ortiz by .021 BA points and 20 SBs.

 

Only one thing left to consider, RBIs. Ortiz managed to drive in 18 more RBIs in 4 less ABs than ARod. Before anyone claims RBIs are a function of more than the hitter at the plate, let me say that I agree with you, so here are their RBI rates.

 

RBI/RBIOpp. @ BaseballProspectus.com

 

Ortiz: 0.1996 (101/506)

ARod: 0.1589 (82/516)

 

That is the most astounding difference yet shown, but I'll be generous again and say that .021 BA points and 20 SB are worth 19 extra runs.

 

If you are willing to accept this analysis of the their whole season, then you need to dig a little deeper and see how impactful their offensive production was in order to determine which player had more offensive value. The best ways to do this are to look at their performance in blow-outs, close games, and C&L splits. Luckily, Jayson Stark has already done that for me.......

 

If you really look closely at what happened in the batter's box when the biggest games of the year were on the line, it becomes clear that that can't be why A-Rod won, either -- because that, too, was a Big Papi landslide.

 

Alex Rodriguez had 24 more at-bats with runners in scoring position than David Ortiz this season -- and still drove in 18 fewer runs. That ought to tell you something. But if it doesn't, we'll spell it out for you.

 

Ortiz hit 62 points higher than A-Rod did with runners in scoring position (.352 to .290) overall. And that's an awfully large gap in a race this close. But that's in all games, in all RBI situations. If you keep looking, you find that as the games got tighter, that gap just kept getting bigger.

 

In the late innings of close games, A-Rod hit .176 with men in scoring position; Ortiz batted .313. That's a humongous, 137-point difference. But why stop there?

 

Ortiz's OPS (on-base plus slugging) in those situations was 1.224 -- to A-Rod's .813. That's a 411-point chasm.

 

But hold on. We're still not done. If you keep breaking down their numbers in tight games, the case for Rodriguez only gets worse.

 

On the admittedly partisan, Red Sox-oriented Sons of Sam Horn site, frequent contributor Eric Van has laid out some truly startling evidence. He found that A-Rod was vastly more productive in the Yankees' blowout wins than he was in games where a hit either way was the difference between winning and losing.

 

In the 20 games each of their teams won by six or more runs, A-Rod hit .549, had an OPS of 1.793 and racked up 46 of his 130 RBI (35 percent). Ortiz, on the other hand, batted .277, had an OPS almost 800 points lower than A-Rod's (.999) and drove in only 33 runs (22 percent of his overall total).

 

But in close games (games that either went to extra innings or were decided by one or two runs in regulation), the numbers look a whole lot different.

 

In those games -- and each team played exactly 65 of them -- A-Rod batted only .243, had an OPS of .805 and drove in just 38 runs (29 percent). Ortiz, meanwhile, clearly tapped some mysterious force that made him even better in moments like that -- batting .321, running up an OPS of 1.116 and knocking in nearly a run a game (62 -- or 42 percent of his overall total).

 

ARod's the MVP, but Ortiz was more valuable with a bat in his hand than ARod was.

[Manny Goes Boom]

Guys, its over. Can't change their minds, the decision is made and thats that. I don't like the outcome but whatever. Arguing over it is dumb. They both had great years. I would have voted for Ortiz, but whatever.

[empirestrikesback26]

To win the MVP, Ortez would have to win the majority of the offensive stats and it was the other way around. A rod was the best player in baseball.

 

For most valuble, I believe each had very similar value, but because A rod was better than ortez, he gets the nod. Also explains why the voting was fairly close.

[ORS]

To win the MVP, Ortez would have to win the majority of the offensive stats and it was the other way around. A rod was the best player in baseball.

 

For most valuble, I believe each had very similar value, but because A rod was better than ortez, he gets the nod. Also explains why the voting was fairly close.

I've been looking at several different RC metrics today. In every metric ARod lead Ortiz in runs created (or equivalent runs) by a difference that ranged from 5 (baseball-reference.com) on the low end to 14.5 on the high end.

 

Different RC metrics use different combinations of the following stats: H, BB, HBP, IBB, TB, SB, CS, AB, TPA, GIDP, SH, SF. Here's one example of a formula that I found on espn.com:

 

RC = [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[bB - IBB + HBP] + .52[sH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF)

 

This formula was responsible for the 14.5 run margin when I entered the appropriate values for each player into the variables.

 

RBI performance is not included in any of these metrics, which it shouldn't be, because RBI opportunities are beyond the players' control. That said, ARod and Ortiz had extremely similar RBI opportunities, so I think including these into their overall run contribution is warranted. Here are the runners that they had a chance to drive in: (BP.com)

 

ARod: 1B-252, 2B-180, 3B-84, Total-516

Ortiz: 1B-262, 2B-75, 3B-69, Total-506

 

Ortiz drove in 101 of his RBI Opportunities to ARod's 82, a difference of 19 runs. So, even in the best case scenario for ARod, he contributed 4.5 less runs than Ortiz.

 

This shows that Ortiz was more valuable to his team with the bat without even considering situational hitting, which was monumentally in Ortiz's favor.

[26 to 6]

nobody looks at half of those stats when they are voting. Its not fair to break it down that much, theyre not robots theyre players

[ORS]

nobody looks at half of those stats when they are voting.

Just like none of those writers look at WHIP, K/9, BB/K, or ERA, but instead look mainly at W/L record when deciding who the best pitcher is. Just because they are idiots doesn't mean we have to be.

Its not fair to break it down that much, theyre not robots theyre players

It's not fair? Insert laugh track here.

[26 to 6]

A-Rod led in more major categories, he hit more home runs, he played better defense, he was simply the better player this year. Thats like determining a gold glove winner based on how many putouts he had during night games in the month of July on odd numbered days. Its ridiculous.

[ORS]

I'm not arguing that he wasn't the MVP. I think his defense was good enough to overcome the run production deficit that I demonstrated, as is evidenced by the fact that he had a +9 FRAR. My point is that Ortiz was more valuable with the bat this season.

 

If you continue to dismissively say, "Well ARod had more H, HR...etc", without looking beneath the numbers, then I have no choice but to lump you into the same group as those idiot sportswriters that gave Colon the Cy Young based on the fact that he was the only 20 game winner.

 

EDIT: Emphasis on the word valuable. ARod had the better statisitical season in most of the major categories, yet Ortiz was able to produce more runs. Runs carry the most value IMO.

[26 to 6]

I'm not arguing that he wasn't the MVP. I think his defense was good enough to overcome the run production deficit that I demonstrated, as is evidenced by the fact that he had a +9 FRAR. My point is that Ortiz was more valuable with the bat this season.

 

If you continue to dismissively say, "Well ARod had more H, HR...etc", without looking beneath the numbers, then I have no choice but to lump you into the same group as those idiot sportswriters that gave Colon the Cy Young based on the fact that he was the only 20 game winner.

 

EDIT: Emphasis on the word valuable. ARod had the better statisitical season in most of the major categories, yet Ortiz was able to produce more runs. Runs carry the most value IMO.

I see what you are saying, I thought you were making a case against A-Rod.

 

I also understand your arguement about value. But this a little bit screwed up because even though it is called the Most valueable Player award, it's really the Player of the Year award.

[MC Hammer]

I see what you are saying, I thought you were making a case against A-Rod.

 

I also understand your arguement about value. But this a little bit screwed up because even though it is called the Most valueable Player award, it's really the Player of the Year award.

They definatly need to change the name of the award. 9 times out of 10 the real MVP doesn't win the award becasue it goes to the best player. Arod has the better numbers in the categories the writers look at(because they're too lazy to look at the rest) and he should be the player of the year, but the MOST VALUABLE player this season is most definatly Ortiz. I'm not saying that Ortiz should have won, but the name of the award definatly needs to be changed if they're going to continue to skip over the real MVP to give it to the guy with the best stats.

[ARod2212]

The best player is the most valuable, and it's stupid to argue otherwise. A guy posts a .370, 58 HR, 150 RBI season, with gold glove defense, but his team sucks around him then he shouldn't win? Whoever contributes the most to a team is the most valuable.

[26 to 6]

I doubt they will change the name, but regardless of if it is called MOst Valueable or not, the player of the year still deserves it. When they were naming the award decades ago Im sure MVP was just a name they chose that sounded good, I dont think they actually intended it to go to the Most Valueable Player, otherwise Mo Rivera would have numerous awards, as would Jeter, as would Clemens, as would Eckersly, as would Munson, as would Fisk, etc..