* Michael Bowden *

[jacksonianmarch]

Bowden is certainly having a rough beginning to his AA days. His ERA is approaching 5, his K/9IP are way down, his BB rate had more than doubled and his BAA is way up since his promotion. He is 20 in AA, so cut him a break, but I think the pedal needs to be eased back a bit. And unless he starts to dominate by the end of the yr, a repeat of AA might be in order for next season.

[BSN07]

I am sure he will spend the rest of this season, all of next season and the beginning of the following season in AA. No reason to bring him up to AAA before hes 23. Maybe the end of next season, but no sooner. A good season and a bit in AA will be good for him for development sake.

 

With Beckett,Matsuzaka,Lester, and Buchholz likely to hold down the rotation for the next few years( barring injury, trade, ect). Theres only going to be 1 avaialbe spot in the rotation, likely to be filled by a Veteran. Bowden might claim the spot, but he might also become expendable in the right trade.

 

Just throwing this out there, but say the Fish Hold on to Miggy until next season, Maybe the Sox( who will be looking for a 3B to replace Lowell, or an OF to eventually replace Manny) Put a package together front lined by Bowden. If he has a good year this year, and next at AA his value will be exttremely hi. Not sure who else you include, by any package involving Bowden to start is nice.

[example1]

Is Wade Miller a good comparison for Bowden? They both had strong fastballs (before Miller got hurt) and an unorthodox delivery. They are both big, strong righties with some nice secondary stuff.

 

Do people think that Bowden can be a healthy version of Wade Miller?

[riverside sluggers]

I am sure he will spend the rest of this season, all of next season and the beginning of the following season in AA. No reason to bring him up to AAA before hes 23. Maybe the end of next season, but no sooner. A good season and a bit in AA will be good for him for development sake.

 

With Beckett,Matsuzaka,Lester, and Buchholz likely to hold down the rotation for the next few years( barring injury, trade, ect). Theres only going to be 1 avaialbe spot in the rotation, likely to be filled by a Veteran. Bowden might claim the spot, but he might also become expendable in the right trade.

 

Just throwing this out there, but say the Fish Hold on to Miggy until next season, Maybe the Sox( who will be looking for a 3B to replace Lowell, or an OF to eventually replace Manny) Put a package together front lined by Bowden. If he has a good year this year, and next at AA his value will be exttremely hi. Not sure who else you include, by any package involving Bowden to start is nice.

 

For some reason, I have a strong feeling that Bowden will be part of a package in the offseason for Mark Teixeira

[Rdsxmbnt]

Pretty good start today: 5 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

 

Over his last two starts: 10.2 IP, 11 hits, 3 BB, 14 K, 2.52 ERA

[ORS]

Domination from Bowden today vs. Binghamton.

 

6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 11 K

 

Brought his season ERA down to 3.70.

[ORS]

Another 6 strong innings from Bowden last night.

 

6.0 IP, 4 H , 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

 

Season

 

[table]IP|H|R|ER|HR|BB|K|BABIP|K/9|BB/9|HR/9|H/9|FIP*|ERA

30.1|25|13|11|2|11|35|.319|10.39|3.26|0.59|7.42|2.84|3.26[/table]

 

*For FIP, I just went with the 11 BB shown on his MiLB page. They don't list HBP and IBB.

[BoSox21]

he's definitely adjusting nicely to AA now. good for him

[Rdsxmbnt]

another great start: 6.1 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

 

season: 36.2 IP, 26 hits, 12 BB, 38 K, 2.69 ERA

[CrespoBlows]

Could we see him at Pawtucket at the end of the year?

[ORS]

Could we see him at Pawtucket at the end of the year?

Tough call right now, IMO. Last year he started off gangbusters in the hitters' paradise of Lancaster and struggled a bit when bumped up to AA at a young age. Perhaps they show a little more caution before promoting him this time and see if he can sustain what he's doing deeper into the year. Of course, if he's hit his developmental milestones then he could be moved up sooner rather than later.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Another gem: 7.0 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

 

Season: 54.2 IP, 36 hits, 14 BB, 53 K, 2.47 ERA

 

Also Bard pitched: 2.0 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

 

Season (in AA): 5.0 IP, 2 hit, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

[ksushi]

Bowden owned today. 6.2 0ER 5/2 K/BB. Brings his ERA for may down to 1.22. 2.20 overall on the season. My friends at school were down on him coming into this year, and I'm glad I stuck to my guns, makes me look like I know stuff. He learned a lot and took a lot from his beatings last year. He'll be in pawtucket making noise soon.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Future ace with another great game:

 

Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA

Bowden 6.2 3 1 1 0 6 0 2.12

[CrespoBlows]

Future ace with another great game:

 

Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA

Bowden 6.2 3 1 1 0 6 0 2.12

 

I'd wait with the future ace claims.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I'd wait with the future ace claims.

 

I'm good with it....but whatever you say big shot

[ksushi]

I'd wait with the future ace claims.

 

Can't argue with his potential right now. Results like these come from good pitchers. He is very young too. Ahead (age wise) of every pitcher to come through our organization thus far, and putting up some pretty elite numbers. I mean, I guess its always prudent to curb your enthusiasm for a 21 year old who isn't out of the woods development wise (or in the potential for serious arm injury, barring misuse, after the age 21 season that should be out the window), but with what he has going on at AA right now, future is is gonna be a tag widely applied to him out on the open market this july and I think that might be his biggest contribution to the red sox this year... will be interesting.

[CrespoBlows]

Can't argue with his potential right now. Results like these come from good pitchers. He is very young too. Ahead (age wise) of every pitcher to come through our organization thus far' date=' and putting up some pretty elite numbers. [b']I mean, I guess its always prudent to curb your enthusiasm for a 21 year old who isn't out of the woods development wise[/b] (or in the potential for serious arm injury, barring misuse, after the age 21 season that should be out the window), but with what he has going on at AA right now, future is is gonna be a tag widely applied to him out on the open market this july and I think that might be his biggest contribution to the red sox this year... will be interesting.

 

That's why.

[ksushi]

I mean, what skin is it off your back if you get pumped about a guy doing as well as bowden and he suffers an injury or a hitch in development. The signs are encouraging. Jeez, enjoy the farm system man, we suffered through some awful, ugly and talentless years of farm system futiliy. Minor league talent was non-existent in Boston forever, our farm was vapid disgrace. The kid is a beast, maybe try to watch him, or follow him. He's doin' good stuff.

 

tis all

[CrespoBlows]

I mean, what skin is it off your back if you get pumped about a guy doing as well as bowden and he suffers an injury or a hitch in development. The signs are encouraging. Jeez, enjoy the farm system man, we suffered through some awful, ugly and talentless years of farm system futiliy. Minor league talent was non-existent in Boston forever, our farm was vapid disgrace. The kid is a beast, maybe try to watch him, or follow him. He's doin' good stuff.

 

tis all

 

I follow Bowden enough to koow that he's gotten mixed reviews about his offspeed stuff, and that his BABIP is currently at .243 at AA, meaning he's probably due for a regression.

 

I'm excited about what he can do at the higher levels, too, but forgive me for wanting to see him sustain this level of performance, before I label him a "future ace."

 

Right now, I have him pegged as a low #2/high #3 starter.

[ksushi]

See, everything I've heard about his off-speed has been more or less glowing. Only good things. When I saw him in portland last year, and what ive seen on nesn from time to time, its looked pretty good. No Buchholz, but pretty good. Especially the curve. His control numbers have always been great, and thats one of the biggest hurdles for a young kid.

 

I'm not saying people have to buy into every label tossed around out there, but i just like to see people get into the farm system? maybe im too crazy about it. I love the fact that we have actual promising young players. I think, personally, Bowden will never pitch for the Red Sox, it makes too much sense for him to be dealt. But I love the stuff he is doing for us right now, its really exciting, imo. not used to it.

[ORS]

I could see him being a 1A type pitcher. Just short of an ace. The reason he falls short is that he lacks dominant, knockout stuff. The reason he'll succeed is that he commands his pitches and keeps the ball in the park. Scouting reports of his stuff make me think Mike Mussina or James Shields. And, his minor league performance is right about between the two.

 

In the minors....

[table]Player|IP|H/9|HR/9|BB/9|K/9

Moose|189.0|7.48|0.57|2.05|8.43

Bowden|322.2|7.91|0.59|2.60|8.85

Shields|544.1|9.06|0.86|2.18|7.86[/table]

 

These are courtesy of thebaseballcube.com, so they don't include this year. Thus, his stats are trending more toward Moose's performance. Moose has the low innings total because he was a college pitcher, and he cracked the bigs at age 22. Shields took a little more time to develop and made it to the majors at age 25.

 

Mind you, this is what I think his ceiling is, as in absolute best. That's really good, a borderline HOF'er with the longevity that Moose has had. A young Mike Mussina was consistently one of the better pitchers in the AL for about a decade without ever being the best.

 

The thing I like most about Bowden is that even if he doesn't hit that ceiling, with his demonstrated command, he's a safe bet to be a serviceable pitcher at a minimum, provided he stays healthy.

[Jim_Chandley]

Kid will be dirty. They say his attitude is outstanding on top of all the other stuff we've discussed

[Rdsxmbnt]

5.2 IP, 5 hits, 2 Runs (1 ER), 1 BB, 5 K

 

Theo in attendence, could it be time for a promotion?

[ksushi]

Could be. He has had a fantastic first half. It would be deserved. Anyone know if he is still the youngest player in AA?

 

BTW, rdsx, props for the old school Lester avatar.

[Rdsxmbnt]

another pretty solid outing: 7.0 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

 

Season: 89.0 IP, 58 hits, 19 BB, 83 K, 2.33 ERA

[Mr Crunchy]

its mindboggling how successful our pitching has developed and the blessing is that none have been injured with the obvious exception of jon lester getting cancer.

the a's have had similar luck with their pitching development

seems everyone they bring up stays healthy and produces till they sell

[jacksonianmarch]

Harden?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Reading all these minor league stats on the Internet makes me want to Ralph.

 

Or, to be more specific, ERALF.

 

ERALF is a Luck-free ERA. All pitchers, but particularly minor league pitchers, get their ERA distorted by circumstances. Last winter Clay Davenport invented the ERALF, described in full here:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7165

 

Let's use this to look at Bowden. Checking BR, Bowden has an ERA of 2.33 at AA Portland this morning. Is he really that good?

 

Not according to ERALF. His ERALF is 3.12, almost a run higher than his ERA.

 

Bummer. Does that mean that he's not as good as we thought?

 

Probably not. BP now offers MLEs for minor league players. Based upon his 2008 performance, Bowden projects to a 3.91 ERALF in MLB right now, or a 3.66 ERALF at his peak. BP also gives Runs Above Replacement (RAR), which is similar to VORP. Bowden is at 38 RAR in AA, translating to 25 RAR in MLB. That would put Bowden right between Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez as the fifth-best pitcher in the AL.

 

Look, probably Bowden wouldn't do quite that well if brought up to MLB right now--we're translating Bowden's best season, not his established level, and we don't know if he's gotten better or if he's gotten lucky in 2008 (even using ERALF doesn't eliminate ALL factors that might be called luck). But even if Bowden is only half as valuable as these metrics suggest--12.5 RAR at the MLB level thus far in 2008--that would still put him between Fausto Carmona and Chien-Ming Wang as the 33rd-best pitcher in the AL, and 33rd-best in the AL is a very valuable pitcher indeed.

 

And he's just 21 years old until September...yeah, barring injury, this guy is gonna be good.

[jacksonianmarch]

there will be an adjustment period. Bowden seems like the kind of guy who needs a little bit of time before he hits his stride.