The Matchstick Man

JethroTull · February 27, 2005

The unbridled fascination with Randy Johnson by Yankee fans is amusing, distorted, and downright hysterical. Read through any thread concerning the upcoming season, and to a man, every Yankee fan looks to Johnson as the cure for what ails them. I've even seen some Sox fans get caught up in the hype. But numbers don't lie, if you only bother to read them. And when you do, the hype gives way to reality.

Johnson spent nine and a half seasons in the AL. A pitchers' prime years are generally considered from his later 20's to his early 30's, which encompasses most of his time in the AL. During this span, Johnson had two seasons where his ERA came in under 3.00. Most of the rest were over 3.50. Also during that stretch, he never made 35 starts in any season, with 34 being his high mark in '93.

Jumping leagues in '98 did wonders for his image. In 5 of 6 NL seasons,(and now pitching past his prime years), Johnson finished with ERA's under 3.00, and made 35 starts in each of those seasons. The '03 season saw his injuries limit his starts to 18, and his ERA climb over 4.00. Now Johnson is back in the AL, and will turn 42 in September. He signed a two year extension on a contract that will pay him roughly $16 million per season guaranteed for the next 3 years.

All this for a man whose numbers are tainted with the ugly truth that he compiled these numbers pitching mostly in favorable weather conditions either indoors or in high heat regions. I love hearing Yankee fans tout Johnson and what he will bring to this season. For some $48 million, you should expect over 100 starts in the 3 year deal, 60 wins, and a sizzling era around 2.50. But this is where the rubber meets the road. If the man couldn't reach this level during his prime in the best conditions, to suggest he will now is just wishful thinking with no basis in reality. More likely, Johnson will finish the 3 years right around .500 in won/lost record, and will be lucky to have an ERA under 4.00 in any season.

To top it off, there is no way the man will make 100 starts over this span. He will turn 44 during the '07 season, if he is still playing. The years, the wind & cold, and his own track record, all paint a much different picture than Yankee fans suggest. In tying up so much money for an aging star, New York has taken a page from the Red Sox past, and we all know how that works out. Johnson made his mark mostly in the NL. He will go into the Hall of Fame one day. But to suggest he will dominate this season and make 3 post season series starts is hot air. Earlier, I offered a 17-13 season, with a 3.85 era as likely numbers. That's a heckuva season for a 42 year old hurler, but hardly the stuff of champions. But don't take my word for it. Look it up. As I said, the numbers don't lie. And Johnson's numbers suggest the Yanks got a pig in a poke, all things considered.

yeszir · February 27, 2005

For those curious, here are his career stats, courtesy of baseball-reference.com

Year Ag Tm  Lg  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP   ERA *lgERA *ERA+
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+
1988 24 MON NL   3   0   4   4   1   0   0  0   26.0   23    8    7   3    7   25   0   3   109  2.42  3.59  148
1989 25 MON NL   0   4   7   6   0   0   1  0   29.7   29   25   22   2   26   26   0   2   143  6.67  3.54   53
        SEA AL   7   9  22  22   2   0   0  0  131.0  118   75   64  11   70  104   3   5   572  4.40  4.05   92
        TOT      7  13  29  28   2   0   1  0  160.7  147  100   86  13   96  130   3   7   715  4.82  3.95   82
1990 26 SEA AL  14  11  33  33   5   2   0  0  219.7  174  103   89  26  120  194   5   4   944  3.65  3.96  108
1991 27 SEA AL  13  10  33  33   2   1   0  0  201.3  151   96   89  15  152  228  12  12   889  3.98  4.14  104
1992 28 SEA AL  12  14  31  31   6   2   0  0  210.3  154  104   88  13  144  241  18  13   922  3.77  3.99  106
1993 29 SEA AL  19   8  35  34  10   3   1  1  255.3  185   97   92  22   99  308  16   8  1043  3.24  4.38  135
1994 30 SEA AL  13   6  23  23   9   4   0  0  172.0  132   65   61  14   72  204   6   5   694  3.19  4.90  154
1995 31 SEA AL  18   2  30  30   6   3   0  0  214.3  159   65   59  12   65  294   6   5   866  2.48  4.86  196
1996 32 SEA AL   5   0  14   8   0   0   2  1   61.3   48   27   25   8   25   85   2   3   256  3.67  4.95  135
1997 33 SEA AL  20   4  30  29   5   2   0  0  213.0  147   60   54  20   77  291  10   4   850  2.28  4.53  198
1998 34 SEA AL   9  10  23  23   6   2   0  0  160.0  146   90   77  19   60  213  11   7   685  4.33  4.66  107
        HOU NL  10   1  11  11   4   4   0  0   84.3   57   12   12   4   26  116   3   0   329  1.28  4.07  318
        TOT     19  11  34  34  10   6   0  0  244.3  203  102   89  23   86  329  14   7  1014  3.28  4.45  136
1999 35 ARI NL  17   9  35  35  12   2   0  0  271.7  207   86   75  30   70  364   9   4  1079  2.48  4.43  178
2000 36 ARI NL  19   7  35  35   8   3   0  0  248.7  202   89   73  23   76  347   6   5  1001  2.64  4.68  177
2001 37 ARI NL  21   6  35  34   3   2   1  0  249.7  181   74   69  19   71  372  18   8   994  2.49  4.58  184
2002 38 ARI NL  24   5  35  35   8   4   0  0  260.0  197   78   67  26   71  334  13   3  1035  2.32  4.40  190
2003 39 ARI NL   6   8  18  18   1   1   0  0  114.0  125   61   54  16   27  125   8   1   489  4.26  4.67  110
2004 40 ARI NL  16  14  35  35   4   2   0  0  245.7  177   88   71  18   44  290  10   3   964  2.60  4.44  171
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+
17 Yr WL% .658 246 128 489 479  92  37   5  2 3368.0 2612 1303 1148 301 1302 4161 156  95 13864  3.07  4.43  144
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+
162 Game Avg    17   8  34  33   6   2   0  0  236.3  183   91   80  21   91  292  10   6   973  3.07  4.43  144
Career High     24  14  35  35  12   6   2  1  271.7  207  104   92  30  152  372  18  13  1079  2.28  4.95  198
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+
                W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP   ERA *lgERA *ERA+

And what you said is the absolute truth. Aside from '97, when Randy was downright dominant (and 34 years old), his AL statistics are good, but not great. As you said, combine this with his age, and the added pressure of pitching in New York, and it doesn't add up to a yankee savior. I'd still be scared taking fastballs from the guy, but Manny should be able to handle bim.

ETA until yankee fans "prove" this wrong: 1 hr 20 minutes. I'm waiting.

BigPapiEnFuego · February 27, 2005

Very good thinking. I am agreeing with you completly. I think he'll become a normal pitcher in New York, not the man he was in the past.

RedSoxRooter · February 27, 2005

I don't know. I think he'll put up similar numbers to what Schilling did last year. Maybe 20-8. Something like that with a mid 3 era. The NY lineup may not have chemistry or be clutch, but they are good enough to score 5 or 6 in any game. He'll have great run support outside of his games against the Sox.

Yanksin2010 · February 27, 2005

LOL, you guys trying to make RJ look bad. Keep it up. It's hilarious.

Yanksin2010 · February 27, 2005

The unbridled fascination with Randy Johnson by Yankee fans is amusing, distorted, and downright hysterical. Read through any thread concerning the upcoming season, and to a man, every Yankee fan looks to Johnson as the cure for what ails them. I've even seen some Sox fans get caught up in the hype. But numbers don't lie, if you only bother to read them. And when you do, the hype gives way to reality.

Johnson spent nine and a half seasons in the AL. A pitchers' prime years are generally considered from his later 20's to his early 30's, which encompasses most of his time in the AL. During this span, Johnson had two seasons where his ERA came in under 3.00. Most of the rest were over 3.50. Also during that stretch, he never made 35 starts in any season, with 34 being his high mark in '93.

Jumping leagues in '98 did wonders for his image. In 5 of 6 NL seasons,(and now pitching past his prime years), Johnson finished with ERA's under 3.00, and made 35 starts in each of those seasons. The '03 season saw his injuries limit his starts to 18, and his ERA climb over 4.00. Now Johnson is back in the AL, and will turn 42 in September. He signed a two year extension on a contract that will pay him roughly $16 million per season guaranteed for the next 3 years.

All this for a man whose numbers are tainted with the ugly truth that he compiled these numbers pitching mostly in favorable weather conditions either indoors or in high heat regions. I love hearing Yankee fans tout Johnson and what he will bring to this season. For some $48 million, you should expect over 100 starts in the 3 year deal, 60 wins, and a sizzling era around 2.50. But this is where the rubber meets the road. If the man couldn't reach this level during his prime in the best conditions, to suggest he will now is just wishful thinking with no basis in reality. More likely, Johnson will finish the 3 years right around .500 in won/lost record, and will be lucky to have an ERA under 4.00 in any season.

To top it off, there is no way the man will make 100 starts over this span. He will turn 44 during the '07 season, if he is still playing. The years, the wind & cold, and his own track record, all paint a much different picture than Yankee fans suggest. In tying up so much money for an aging star, New York has taken a page from the Red Sox past, and we all know how that works out. Johnson made his mark mostly in the NL. He will go into the Hall of Fame one day. But to suggest he will dominate this season and make 3 post season series starts is hot air. Earlier, I offered a 17-13 season, with a 3.85 era as likely numbers. That's a heckuva season for a 42 year old hurler, but hardly the stuff of champions. But don't take my word for it. Look it up. As I said, the numbers don't lie. And Johnson's numbers suggest the Yanks got a pig in a poke, all things considered.

He's a lot better than anybody on your staff.

yankeessuck013 · February 27, 2005

i'd take curt over him any day!

yeszir · February 27, 2005

LOL, you guys trying to make RJ look bad. Keep it up. It's hilarious.

I was off by 2 hours and 26 minutes. Great argument!

Yanksin2010 · February 27, 2005

i'd take curt over him any day!

Ok, but RJ is better.

Yanksin2010 · February 27, 2005

I was off by 2 hours and 26 minutes. Great argument!

He needs no arguement. He's the second best pitcher in the game today.

yankeessuck013 · February 27, 2005

Ok, but RJ is better.

not according to this article

http://www.sportspage43.com/e_article000349367.cfm?x=b11,0,w

did anyone know that "randy" means aroused or turned on...LMAO

yankeessuck013 · February 27, 2005

He needs no arguement. He's the second best pitcher in the game today.

who's first?

Curt...

Yanksin2010 · February 27, 2005

who's first?

Curt...

LOL, sorry RJ is better and you know it.

yankeessuck013 · March 9, 2005

great showing by dandy randy today in an 8-2 loss to atlanta

ahhchon · March 10, 2005

johnson is filthy and will be damn good in the AL also. i really don't see an over 3.4 era for him. the "prime" year arguement is silly. some people just peek later than others and some people have longevity.

john

Yanksin2010 · March 10, 2005

great showing by dandy randy today in an 8-2 loss to atlanta

I seriously think you're retarded if you judge his season on a meaningless ST game.

Yanksin2010 · March 10, 2005

johnson is filthy and will be damn good in the AL also. i really don't see an over 3.4 era for him. the "prime" year arguement is silly. some people just peek later than others and some people have longevity.

john

He'll probably be from 3.1 to 3.3 ERA this year. I doubt any higher.

ahhchon · March 10, 2005

doesn't really matter, it's my word/opinion against yours. i personally don't see johnson dominating the league. he'll K a lot of batters and get wins due to the lineup but i see a 3.4 era.. anything over is a gift imo.

john

JethroTull · June 9, 2005

So how is the Yankee Savior doing? He gets to hook up with Morris this weekend. And two more years at 16 mil per? Like I said, a pig in a poke. Silly indeed !

Sox fan in Tex · June 9, 2005

The Yankees have the dumbest people running their organization in the league. Read Moneyball, Steinbrenner... stop spending money on old wasted players. Randy Johnson sucks.

Sizzlin22 · June 10, 2005

johnson is filthy and will be damn good in the AL also. i really don't see an over 3.4 era for him. the "prime" year arguement is silly. some people just peek later than others and some people have longevity.

john

True some people have longevity but here's a question what has he done so far this year to prove he will be dominant and has longevity?

Yanksin2010- Do you really believe RJ is better than any pitcher on the Sox? I beg to differ, Bronson Arroyo has him beat in record ERA and WHIP, and Matt Clement has him beat in record and ERA come up with numbers before you come up with an arguement kid.

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