Cameron Tran

Never really looked like Houck had the feel for the sweeper today. Couldn't get it backdoor consistently and so the splitter was much less effective. Solid outing though looked better than last week.

that slider looks really great. was not expecting much from him tbh but a welcome surprise. Bullpen as a whole looks completely different this year

feel like we haven't had a lockdown guy since Koji. Kimbrel was good but he scared me at times but with Koji it felt different

dont like chapman as closer. yall were right this is too stressful

just a god awful approach. Don't know if it's something coaching is telling them but if so that needs to change.

While Rafael Devers is getting the majority of the blame for the Red Sox slow start, Triston Casas, Connor Wong, Trevor Story, and Ceddanne Rafeala are a combined 5-63 to begin the year. Those 4, plus Devers, are hitting .061 on the year. While stats at the start of the season are typically exaggerated and highlighted, this is not something that we can ignore. Here's whats been going on with those 5 hitters. Rafael Devers: Devers set the record with the most strikeouts in a teams first 5 games, going down 15 times in his 19 at-bats. It's one of the top stories in all of baseball, and for good reason. Going back to last season, Devers has 26 strikeouts in his last 9 games. He has 1 hit in that stretch. Much of what Devers has been dealing with comes down to his timing. His bat speed is down 2 mph from last year, and it shows. His 48% contact% is down nearly 30 points from his career average. He quite frankly just isn't hitting the ball, and when he does, it usually goes straight back. While this is definitely the worst of the worst for the Red Sox lineup, I would argue this isn't the most worrying of the bunch. Devers issues this year have nothing to do with plate discipline, which is usually what gets him. His chase rate is down 10%, and he's drawn a solid amount of walks and worked some good at-bats (albeit mostly ending in strikeouts). I don't think it's possible for a hitter like Devers to stay this way, maybe this off-day can calm him down and get him back into form, but don't look too deep into this start from the 2x silver slugger. A slow spring and long recovery, not to mention all the offseason drama, made this an extremely unusual spring for him, but its only a matter of time until he settles in to the DH role and rakes once again. Triston Casas: While Dever's strikeouts have hidden the struggles of Casas, the young slugger has had almost an equally bad start to the year. Through 17 at-bats, Casas has just 1 hit, 1 walk, and 7 strikeouts. Even worse, Casas has been chasing much more than usual, with a 31% chase rate up 10 points from his career average. He has yet to barrel up a ball this year, with his exit-velo down 10mph from his average. He's hit only 1 line drive in those 17 at-bats. Moreover, he just looks completely lost at the plate. Going off the eye-test, he's going up there without any sort of approach, he's getting behind in the count more often and chasing some god awful pitches and something needs to change if we want to compete this year. Cora gave Casas the day off yesterday, but he's expected to return to the lineup tomorrow with the righty Eflin going. I am more worried about Casas then Devers, especially with him coming off of a rough spring and a very weird year last season. Connor Wong: Wong spent much of the offseason working on his defense, and I'll give credit where credits due he's looked much better behind the plate, but his bat has not started as fast as his glove. Wong has just 1 hit in his first 16 at-bats, adding 5 strikeouts to the teams total. More importantly, Wong is 0-10 with runners in scoring position, with 1 walk and all 5 of those strikeouts coming with runners in scoring position. Wong, like Casas, has seen his chase rate up 5% compared to his career average. He's swinging at the first pitch nearly 50% of the time, resulting in him starting 0-1 nearly 70% of his plate appearances. Wong was never projected to add much with his bat, but with the way Abreu and Campbell have been swinging, we need Wong bringing in those situations. Trevor Story: Many hoped this would be the year Story finally gets back to form, but he has once again added next to nothing with his bat. At this point in his career, it's solely his defense that has kept him in Cora's lineup. Story has started the year with 2 hits and 6 strikeouts in 15 ABs. He's another Red Sox yet to barrel up a baseball yet. His outside the zone swing% has gone up nearly 20%, resulting in an average exit velo of 80mph, down 10mph from his average. Out of everyone on this team, Story needs a barrel the most. Even if its a hard linedrive right into a glove, we need to see that Story can still make hard contact. While his defense at short will keep him in the lineup, if Mayer gets going in AAA don't be surprised if Cora makes a change. Ceddanne Rafaela: Early in the spring, I listed Rafaela as my top breakout candidate for the 2025 season. He showed major improvements and a new batting stance this spring, and the results were very good. It looked like Rafaela had finally gotten his plate discipline in control, and, more importantly, he was walking far more than he was striking out, something that was very needed for the sophomore. But a hot spring has not equalled a hot start, as Rafaela has started 1-15 with 0 walks and 3 strikeouts. Out of everyone though, Rafaela should definitely be the worst of your worries. His exit velo is up 2 mph from last season, and his expected batting average shows some unluckiness so far. The worrying part is that it looks like all that work to lower the chase rate this spring has gone out the window. Rafaela has an astonishing 76% chase rate this year. He is swinging at nearly 80% of the pitches he sees, and 23% of those swings are ending in strikes. While Rafaela has been putting the ball in play more than any of the aforementioned, we need to see that spring plate-discipline come back.

Whats up with Casas? looks completely lost at the plate, more concerned about him than devers to be honest....

I don't think Bregman was ever a serious option at 2nd. Cora never showed any intention of giving him time there and I think Devers would have DHed whether he liked it or not.

slaten looked great in the closer role. Seemed confident and comfortable

campbell had some ugly swings in his first 2 at-bats

Wong (2), Bregman (2), Abreau (3), Devers and Campbell all with exit velos over 100. Just need to get the ball up, 5 of those had launch angles below 5. Kristian Campbell with the highest bat speed for the Red Sox, just needs to settle down at the plate a little.

Crochet fastball and cutter avg velo both down 1 mph from last year. Didn't touch 98 tonight. Cutter had more break than average but fastball was much flatter. Good to see whitlock pitching well out of the bullpen again though. Slaten also looked lights out and very composed in the closer role.

if judge misses time their finished

Lots of predictions have the Red Sox as AL Pennant winners, but none of them have us winning it all. Honestly, I think we are a year away from competing with the Dodgers, Braves, or Phillies, but you never know what could happen in a 7 game series.

Here are some of the predictions I found for the Red Sox this season: Keith Law, The Athletic: 91-71, First in AL East, AL Pennant winner ESPN: First in AL East, AL Pennant winner MLB.Com: First in Al East, AL Pennant winner Bleacher Report: 92-70, Second in AL East, Pretty bold projections and predictions. Is the ceiling for this team really an AL Pennant? Should that be our expectation?

package around Abreu for Alcantara?

I doubt anyone would want story tbh. Saw some mocks floating a package centered around Wilyer for Alcantara, would do that in a heartbeat.

i'd honestly take him on that. Worst-case it plays out like the end of Sale's contract, best case we get a cy-young pitcher in his prime years while Mayer, Anthony, Campbell, etc are all still under team control and cheap

worked okay with Paxton tbh. We'll see how it goes with Sandoval but yeah i personally don't love that strategy.

Player option after this year for 26.25M, only reason he wouldn't take it is if he plays so well he thinks he could get a multi-year deal this offseason. .266/.325/..426 last year with average defense. EV, Hardhit % pretty similar to 2023 when he hit .307 with 26 HR. Short porch in right could boost those numbers (he would've hit 24 hr in yankee stadium last year compared to the 17 he actually hit) and a contender needing some left-handed hitting could be convinced into overpaying for him.

The Athletic predicted Crochet at 110/5 (22m AAV). That would be a steal at the moment. Would love to see that get done now, honestly would overpay right now. A full, healthy, 30 start 190ish inning season probably puts him higher than deals that Burnes (210/6) and Fried (218/8) got this offseason. Wouldn't be opposed to giving him a deal like Sale (maybe even a little higher).

If Judge gets hurt and has an injury filled season like 2023 this years team is finished. Could sell guys like Williams (contract year) or Bellinger (2 years left) at the dealine

Unlike the last few seasons, rotational depth coming into this spring was seen as a strongish point on the Red Sox roster. Now, with opening day just a few days away, that rotational depth is being tested. 3 of the 6 starters anticipated to make the opening day roster will begin the season on the IL. Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito should be up and running at some point in April, with Kutter Crawford a few steps behind them. Patrick Sandoval, whom the Red Sox signed to a 2 year deal this offseason, should be ready sometime this summer as he recovers from a torn UCL. To replace Giolito and Bello, Alex Cora has called on their #14 overall prospect Richard Fitts to take the 4th spot, and a relatively surprising pick in Sean Newcomb to take the fifth spot. Newcomb, 31, signed to a minor league deal with the Red Sox with pretty far odds of making the opening day roster. A former first round pick, Newcomb had his best years with the Braves early in his career. The lefty out of Brockton spent the first 2 years of his career as a starter, posting a respectable 4.06 ERA in 50 starts across 2017 and 2018. A sky high 4.7 BB/9 and 12% walk rate pushed Newcomb to the bullpen in 2019, where he excelled, pitching to a 3.16 ERA and lowering his walk rate to a more manageable 9.9%. Since then, Newcomb has struggled heavily with injuries, never pitching more than 33 innings in a season since. Newcomb has been very subpar in the 98 innings since 2019, posting a 6.66 ERA and 6.3 BB/9, seemingly undoing the progress he had made in his lone season in the bullpen. So far this spring training though, Newcomb has been very impressive. In 14 innings, Newcomb has allowed 2 earned runs, while striking out 13 and walking just 3. The walks are what is impressing most of the Red Sox organization the most, as Newcomb has always had good strikeout stuff but his sub-par command has followed him every step of the way. Newcomb has a fastball that sits in the low 90s, but has seen his fastball usage drop this spring, likely to the suggestion of the Red Sox pitching guru's. To replace it, Andrew Bailey has Newcomb throwing a cutter, a pitch he threw at times in 2021 and 2022 but hasn't thrown since. He's done a good job at keeping the cutters glove side and sinkers arm side. His curveball, his most used secondary across most of his career, hasn't looked as sharp this spring but should be ready to go by opening day. Newcomb has also increased his changeup usage, although he will likely keep that as a back option, as he has done in the past. If Newcomb, or Fitts, is unable to translate their strong springs into early success in the regular season, it shouldn't be too much of an issue, as neither Bello nor Giolito expect to spend much time on the IL. Bello will begin the season on the 15 day, but expects to throw 4-5 innings in Worcester before potentially joining the Red Sox by the first or second week of April. Giolito has said that he feels "100%", but the Red Sox would rather not risk it and he too will likely open the season on the IL with Bello. On the other had, Crawford looks set to miss a solid chunk of time as he recovers from a nagging knee issue. He has expressed a desire to return at some point in April, but the knee issue is something that will not go away. Crawford revealed that the issue began to pop up in his third start last season, and that at times last year he was "throwing on one leg, essentially." The timetable to Crawford is unclear, but it is likely the Red Sox won't rush him.

On Wednesday, the Red Sox optioned Vaughn Grissom to minor league camp, seemingly leaving the second base position down to 2. Instead, a potential new option has emerged in the form of top prospect Marcelo Mayer. Mayer made his second base debut as a substitute on Tuesday, before getting the start on Wednesday. The 22 year old has been on fire from the plate this spring, hitting .355 with a 1.025 OPS. In 77 AA games, Mayer hit .307 with an .850 OPS. Although he has never played second at the professional level, Mayer is confident he can adjust. "Everything is backwards compared to short and third base. But I'm athletic, I think I could figure it out pretty quickly." Mayer has never played anything other than third base or shortstop. Due to his bigger frame and below-average speed, some evaluators picture him as a long term third basemen. Mayer's quick first step and athleticism should make the transition across the diamond easier, if that is what Alex Cora deems best for the team. In the long run, Mayer still profiles as the teams starting shortstop if Story's defense declines. Although Mayer has yet to register a AAA at-bat, Cora praises the "baseball player" in him, saying "The baseball player is real. He's not just a prospect. He's a baseball player." If Mayer begins the season at second, it will likely mean Kristian Campbell will start the season at AAA. David Hamilton remains in the mix, but Cora might prefer him as a platoon, speed option of the bench when needed. In other roster news, Blake Sabol was optioned to minor-league camp, making it almost certain that Carlos Narvaez will open the year the backup catcher. Luis Guerrero and Jost Winckowski will also not start the season on the major league roster, giving some clarity to a crowded bullpen.

relievers are extremely volatile. We all though wink was going to be a mainstay after 2023. Same thing with Bernardino. We saw what happened to Ryan Braiser. Man I thought Sawamura was going to stick forever. any of these guys could be 3-4 ERA guys or get absolutely raked and DFA'ed by June. Odds are we won't really know the state of the bullpen until the all star break