Cameron Tran

If Judge gets hurt and has an injury filled season like 2023 this years team is finished. Could sell guys like Williams (contract year) or Bellinger (2 years left) at the dealine

Unlike the last few seasons, rotational depth coming into this spring was seen as a strongish point on the Red Sox roster. Now, with opening day just a few days away, that rotational depth is being tested. 3 of the 6 starters anticipated to make the opening day roster will begin the season on the IL. Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito should be up and running at some point in April, with Kutter Crawford a few steps behind them. Patrick Sandoval, whom the Red Sox signed to a 2 year deal this offseason, should be ready sometime this summer as he recovers from a torn UCL. To replace Giolito and Bello, Alex Cora has called on their #14 overall prospect Richard Fitts to take the 4th spot, and a relatively surprising pick in Sean Newcomb to take the fifth spot. Newcomb, 31, signed to a minor league deal with the Red Sox with pretty far odds of making the opening day roster. A former first round pick, Newcomb had his best years with the Braves early in his career. The lefty out of Brockton spent the first 2 years of his career as a starter, posting a respectable 4.06 ERA in 50 starts across 2017 and 2018. A sky high 4.7 BB/9 and 12% walk rate pushed Newcomb to the bullpen in 2019, where he excelled, pitching to a 3.16 ERA and lowering his walk rate to a more manageable 9.9%. Since then, Newcomb has struggled heavily with injuries, never pitching more than 33 innings in a season since. Newcomb has been very subpar in the 98 innings since 2019, posting a 6.66 ERA and 6.3 BB/9, seemingly undoing the progress he had made in his lone season in the bullpen. So far this spring training though, Newcomb has been very impressive. In 14 innings, Newcomb has allowed 2 earned runs, while striking out 13 and walking just 3. The walks are what is impressing most of the Red Sox organization the most, as Newcomb has always had good strikeout stuff but his sub-par command has followed him every step of the way. Newcomb has a fastball that sits in the low 90s, but has seen his fastball usage drop this spring, likely to the suggestion of the Red Sox pitching guru's. To replace it, Andrew Bailey has Newcomb throwing a cutter, a pitch he threw at times in 2021 and 2022 but hasn't thrown since. He's done a good job at keeping the cutters glove side and sinkers arm side. His curveball, his most used secondary across most of his career, hasn't looked as sharp this spring but should be ready to go by opening day. Newcomb has also increased his changeup usage, although he will likely keep that as a back option, as he has done in the past. If Newcomb, or Fitts, is unable to translate their strong springs into early success in the regular season, it shouldn't be too much of an issue, as neither Bello nor Giolito expect to spend much time on the IL. Bello will begin the season on the 15 day, but expects to throw 4-5 innings in Worcester before potentially joining the Red Sox by the first or second week of April. Giolito has said that he feels "100%", but the Red Sox would rather not risk it and he too will likely open the season on the IL with Bello. On the other had, Crawford looks set to miss a solid chunk of time as he recovers from a nagging knee issue. He has expressed a desire to return at some point in April, but the knee issue is something that will not go away. Crawford revealed that the issue began to pop up in his third start last season, and that at times last year he was "throwing on one leg, essentially." The timetable to Crawford is unclear, but it is likely the Red Sox won't rush him.

On Wednesday, the Red Sox optioned Vaughn Grissom to minor league camp, seemingly leaving the second base position down to 2. Instead, a potential new option has emerged in the form of top prospect Marcelo Mayer. Mayer made his second base debut as a substitute on Tuesday, before getting the start on Wednesday. The 22 year old has been on fire from the plate this spring, hitting .355 with a 1.025 OPS. In 77 AA games, Mayer hit .307 with an .850 OPS. Although he has never played second at the professional level, Mayer is confident he can adjust. "Everything is backwards compared to short and third base. But I'm athletic, I think I could figure it out pretty quickly." Mayer has never played anything other than third base or shortstop. Due to his bigger frame and below-average speed, some evaluators picture him as a long term third basemen. Mayer's quick first step and athleticism should make the transition across the diamond easier, if that is what Alex Cora deems best for the team. In the long run, Mayer still profiles as the teams starting shortstop if Story's defense declines. Although Mayer has yet to register a AAA at-bat, Cora praises the "baseball player" in him, saying "The baseball player is real. He's not just a prospect. He's a baseball player." If Mayer begins the season at second, it will likely mean Kristian Campbell will start the season at AAA. David Hamilton remains in the mix, but Cora might prefer him as a platoon, speed option of the bench when needed. In other roster news, Blake Sabol was optioned to minor-league camp, making it almost certain that Carlos Narvaez will open the year the backup catcher. Luis Guerrero and Jost Winckowski will also not start the season on the major league roster, giving some clarity to a crowded bullpen.

relievers are extremely volatile. We all though wink was going to be a mainstay after 2023. Same thing with Bernardino. We saw what happened to Ryan Braiser. Man I thought Sawamura was going to stick forever. any of these guys could be 3-4 ERA guys or get absolutely raked and DFA'ed by June. Odds are we won't really know the state of the bullpen until the all star break

Biggest problem is he's not getting the same Outside Zone swings as his peak. 25% last year, down from career 29% avg. Throwing the same percentage of pitches out of the zone but just not getting as many swings at them. Looks even worse this spring to be honest, swing% in general is way down and he's still sporting a BB/9 over 6. Neither of them are great options. Honestly would've rather we kept Jansen on a one year deal.

Fair enough. I think Slaten or Guerrero beats both of them out by the ASG anyways

True but he always has. BB/9 has actually gone down in recent years but still way above average. Chapman hasen't been a closer since 2021 but Hendriks hasn't pitched in general since 2022. I think Henriks slow start means Chapman wins the closer role out the gate

henriks looks awful right now. Why do you like him over chapman?

Bernardino and Whitlock are looking solid this spring. Don't really know what the closer role will look like but right now I trust Chapman over Slaten or Hendriks. That could definitely change this summer. Problem is no one has looked all that good. Wink has been awful. Weissert and Guerrero haven't been great. Hendriks looks rusty. Justin Wilson isn't looking good. Could the bullpen be what kills this team again? I know Spring Training stats are pretty meaningless, but the Bullpen looks weak. We definelty should've pushed harder for one of the high end relievers. Is it time to give David Robertson a call?

Hamilton was getting hot before getting hurt. He had a .851 OPS in August and showing more power with a much higher pulled flyball % (22%). 6% below league average for outside zone swing rate. Cora loves his experience and athleticism. A full season he could reach 15ish homeruns. Add 30-40 steals and 4-5 OAA at second and you've got an above-average second basemen. Accumulated 2.6 WAR in just 96 games and 318 PA. Could easly break 3 in a full season. Only 12 second basemen had more than 3 WAR. If he gets hot, a 3.5 WAR season is not out of the question. That's a top 8 second basemen in the league. I know im optimistic and I know that the job should be Campbell's by the All-Star game, but Hamilton could be a real weapon for us this year, especially if he can provide defensive value in the outfield as well.

so would your bench be Hamilton, Romy, Sogard, Refsnyder and Sabol/Narvaez?

i definitely think Hamilton deserves another look. Still only 27. Showed last year he can provide value with his legs and his glove, and he had a .791 OPS in August before getting hurt. He's streaky (.581 OPS in July) but if he can hover around the .700 - .750 range and give us around 120 games and 40 steals he could be an underrated X-factor for us

Hamilton really hasn't been that bad this spring training. I'd take the .238/.360/.452 slash line out of my second basemen any day of the week. Especially if he's adding 30-40 steals and playing above average defense.

I agree, Campbell needs a little more time in AAA, especially on the defensive side. Cora has talked alot about how Campbell needs to get up to speed with major league expectations at second

cora loves Newcomb. Speaks really highly of him. Newcomb hasn't started consistently since 2019 but he's had a much better spring that Priester and Criswell

With Rafael Devers recently putting out the fire on the "third base is mine" debacle, a new hole has opened up at second base for the Red Sox. When Alex Bregman signed with the Red Sox, many suspected he would start at second with Devers making a hard claim for the hot corner. But a delayed start and nagging shoulders mean it looks like Devers has ceded the position and agreed to see some time at DH. This leaves the only hole in the lineup at second base. Last season, Enmanuel Valdez led the team at WAR for second basemen, with a measly -.6 Wins Above Replacement. With Valdez no longer on the roster, the Red Sox have no one rostered who played more than 40 games at the big league level at second base last season. The battle seems to be down to just 3 players, that being Vaughn Grissom, David Hamilton, and Kristian Campbell. Coming into camp, Campbell was an early favorite to crack the big league roster in some way. MLB.com's #7 Overall prospect, Campbell was excellent across three minor league levels last year, with a .330/.439/.558 season, including 4 homeruns in 19 AAA games to end the year. So far this spring though, Campbell has struggled to a .167 batting average and 12 strikeouts to just 5 walks in 13 spring training games. It would now seem that Campbell, who has only 70 AAA plate appearances to his name, will, and should, start the year in AAA. That leaves Hamilton and Grissom as the 2 main candidates. Both saw time at second base last season, each starting between 30 and 40 games at the position, but Hamilton was clearly the better players. In 98 games Hamilton hit .248/.303/.395 while adding 32 stolen bases. Hamilton looked poised to finish the year strong after hitting 3 homeruns in his first 19 games in August before a finger fracture ended his year prematurely. Hamilton's ceiling at the plate is likely that of a league average hitter, his 92 WRC+ last year was a welcome surprise, but his ability on the base paths, his sprint-speed ranked in the 94th percentile, should earn him a spot as a utility player for Alex Cora. Hamilton also showed strong defense at second base, with 3 OAA. Comparing that to what we saw out of an injury stricken 2024 from Grissom, Hamilton looks like the clear winner. But Grissom has been turning heads in camp this year. After reportedly losing 15 pounds to the flu last April, Grissom struggled to a .190 batting average in just 31 big league games. But, due to the weight loss and the myriad of injuries Grissom dealt with, Cora was quick to write off Grissom's 2024 campaign as a mulligan. In spring training action, Grissom has yet to prove him right, hitting just .200 in 34 plate appearances, but a noticeable increase in muscle and confidence from the still 24 year old has helped his case greatly. Right now, the Red Sox strongest lineup, in my opinion, features David Hamilton at second base with Vaughn Grissom coming off the bench. Ideally, Campbell will tear up AAA and force and early call-up, but as far as opening day goes, the spot seems to be Hamilton's to lose.

With Alex Cora confirming Kutter Crawford will begin the year on the injured list and with Brayan Bello's opening day status in doubt, a hole has opened in the Red Sox rotation. Crochet, Buehler, Houck, and Giolito will likely operate in spots 1-4, but the Red Sox, facing a heavy early schedule, will need a 5th starter as to not wear out the bullpen early. In my eyes, there are only 3 candidates for the job, Quinn Priester, Richard Fitts, and Cooper Criswell. Last season, Criswell was brought in as a AAA depth option for the Red Sox, but quickly found himself thrust into the rotation due to a string of early injuries. Criswell impressed for the Red Sox, throwing to a 3.49 ERA in 16 starts. While his FIP of 4.21 indicates he relied on some luck, his 6.8 BB% and 51.6 GB% helped him prevent runners from getting on base and stay an effective contact-first pitcher. Criswell has far and away the most experience out of the bunch, as Priester and Fitts have combined for just 70 MLB innings. It is worth noting that Criswell struggled in his most recent spring training appearance against the Blue Jays, allowing 4 runs on 5 hits against mostly starters. Stuff+ doesn't love Criswell's arsenal outside his slider (which hitters hit .330 off last year), but he is able to locate well enough to induce weak contact mostly into the ground. Criswell, like Fitts and Priester, still has minor-league options available. Richard Fitts, acquired from the Yankees in the Alex Verdugo trade, pitched well in a September cameo. In 20.2 innings, Fitts allowed 4 runs while striking out 9. His 7.5% AAA walk rate is somewhat of a concern, and should be something for pitching coach Andrew Bailey to keep an eye on. So far this spring, Fitts has impressed Red Sox coaches with an uptick in velocity. His fastball has averaged 97 mph in 2 spring training appearances, up from the 94 mph clip he sat last year. Fitts has also worked on his slider over the offseason, adding some velocity and giving it a tighter movement profile in hopes to differentiate it further from his sweeper. The key for Fitts will be working on getting deeper into games. He allowed a .188 avg and 0 earned runs his first time through the order last year, but a .288 avg and 4 earned runs his second and third time through as his hard hit rate ballooned from 13.8% to 38.3%. Priester, acquired at the deadline last year from the Pirates, has long been a highly touted pitching prospect after being selected in the 1st round of the 2019 draft. Since then, he has struggled to maintain an MLB role and has not shown enough in AAA to warrant extensive time in the bigs. Priester excels as limiting walks and getting strikouts, but has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters. In 109 chances, lefties hit .330 of Priester with 4 homeruns and 18 RBI. Like Fitts, Priester has worked hard in the offseason to add velocity. in 6.2 innings this spring, his sinker topped out at 97 while sitting 95, a major improved from the 93 he sat most of last year. Additionally, Priester has looked to cut his fastball out of his repertoire this season. Far and away his worst pitch, batters his .400 of the fastball with a swinging strike % of just 8.5% and a linedrive rate north of 40%. To replace this, Priester has toyed with a cutter this spring, a pitch that works better against lefties as it runs into their hands. After an impressive early spring, it would not be crazy to deem Priester the frontrunner, but I think Criswell's performance last year and MLB experience gives him a slight edge so far. If Priester, or Fitts, continue to impress while Criswell struggles through the rest of the spring, it would not be surprised to see either of them beat out the incumbent Criswell. That being said, a heavy workload to begin the season that sees the Red Sox playing 16 straight and 21 in the first 22 days means Cora could very well give all 3 spot starts to begin the year.

Brayan Bello came into 2024 as the clear-cut number 1 on a young, unproved starting rotation. After signing a 6 year, 55 million dollar extension, Bello was supposed to be the leader of the staff. This year, MLB.com projects Bello as the number 5 starter, barely edging Kutter Crawford for the last rotation spot. So what happened? Bello's 2024 was not as different from his 2023 as it may seem. He pitched around the same amount of innings, had a similar ERA around 4.40, and actually struck out one batter per nine more than he did in his "breakout" 2024. The differences come in the contact he allowed. His groundball rate dropped from 56% to 50%, still in the 86th percentile but a noticeable dip. The big change was his linedrive rate increasing from 14% to 21%, back where it was in 2022. But this still doesn't really explain why Bello was so much worse in 2024. The increased linedrive rate actually led to a lower hard-hit rate, by about 5%. His BABIP was around the same as it was in 2023, and his batting average against was actually lower. The problem can be found when looking at Bello's arsenal. His sinker, his most used pitch, was noticeably worse this year than last. Batters hit .307 of the sinker last year, as it induced less groundballs and many more linedrives. The pitch lost nearly 2 inches of vertical drop this year, and caused significantly less outside zone swings. We can hope, and assume, that this was the key area Bello and Andrew Bailey looked to address this offseason. There is lots of reason for optimism for Bello in 2025 though. His slider, now his 3rd most used pitch, has increased in velocity each year, while being hit less and less. While it is still probably a below average - average pitch, some offseason work could turn that into a dangerous 3rd option. His changeup is still one of the best pitches in the league, inducing an incredible .175 avg against, with an ops of just .585. Bello seemed to be putting it together late last year, as his final 16 starts turned out a 3.66 ERA and 3.67 FIP. Possibly the biggest reason for hope comes not from Bello, but from his supporting cast. Bello still sports a well above average groundball rate, but the Red Sox committed the 2nd most errors in the league last year, leading to more of those groundballs resulting in hits or errors. With the addition of Alex Bregman and the return of Trevor Story, the Red Sox infield defense projects to be much better, especially up the middle. With all that in mind, theres reason to believe 2025 might finally be the long awaited true breakout year for Brayan Bello.

would rather trade him than Arias, Cespedes, Garcia or Bleis if we go big at the deadline. We don't really need another lefty and we have better prospects at both second and short

the whole things? is it still readable?

i would not hate to use him as a midseason trade piece to be honest

Coming out of the same high school as Gerrit Cole, Cole Winn, and Garrett Mathews, Mikey Romero was destined for baseball greatness. That's why the Red Sox made Romero their 2022 first round pick, taking him with the 24 overall pick that year. Since then, Romero has been nothing less than disappointing. While hitting on Roman Anthony in the Compensatory round of that draft has made the sting a little less painful, it still hurts to see a first round pick flounder as Romero has. Since being selected, Romero has only played in 131 professional games. He is yet to play 80 games in a season. A combination of various back injuries has hindered Romero's career so far, but he looked to be finally figuring it out at the end of last year, finishing in AA and staying relatively healthy after dealing with his back injuries early. There's reasons to be optimistic for Romero to have a turnaround this season. In his final 27 games for High-A Greenville, Romeo hit .345 with 8 homeruns, earning him a late season call up to AA. While he had some struggles in AA, posting a .243 avg with a really poor 33% K-rate, he flashed some power that we didn't really expect for him. In 16 games, Romero hit 6 homeruns, brining his season total to 16. In his previous 187 plate appearances, he hit 1, way back in rookie ball. Coming out of high school, Romero was regarded as a high contact, low power SS with smooth hands and a mature approach. He was praised for his high baseball IQ, especially for someone coming out of high school. In the time since, Romero has traded some of that contact for more power, much like Kristian Campbell. While not as successful, Romero is still only 21 and has yet to have a fully healthy season. Fully healthy, he's a good pick for a minor league breakout this year.

Kristian Campbell's Early Struggles Kristian Campbell, MLB's Minor League player of the year, came into camp this year with lofty expectations and a starting spot on the MLB roster within reach. So far, he has not lived up to those massive expectations. In todays Spring Training contest against the Orioles, Campbell snapped an 0-13 start, notching his first spring hit in a 1-3 game. Alex Cora, when discussing the young prospect, showed his confidence in Campbell's ability to turn things around. "I think the good thing is we have a pretty good idea of what he needs. We talked to him, [telling him] you need to swing less." So far, Campbell has 8 strikeouts in his first 13 at-bats. Cora cited his swing decisions and his 2-strike approach as something for them to work on. Campbell's 19% K-rate across A, AA, and AAA was in line with league averages. His outside zone swing percentage was also well below league average, coming in at also 19%. Plate discipline has never been an issue for Campbell, so hopefully we can chalk up the early spring struggles to the added pressure of big-league camp. Connor Wong's 2025 Outlook Infamously acquired in the Mookie Bett's trade, Connor Wong has proved a serviceable catcher for the Red Sox. The Sox clearly have confidence in Wong, as they traded away the 3rd best catching prospect, Kyle Teel, in the Crochet trade. In 2024, Wong was solid at the plate, albeit with pretty horrible underlying numbers, but was one of the worst framers and blockers in the league. This season, Cora has a new plan for the backstop. With Jason Varitek's role and responsibilities increasing, the Red Sox brought in a new catching instructor, former Division 1 catcher Parker Guinn. "The first thing we addressed were some of his setups back there. Trying to put him into better positions to receive the baseball, particularly at the bottom of the zone and then from there we started working on some of the receiving techniques and glove path stuff to help him at the bottom" Cora praised Guinn's efforts, and added Wong "looked more athletic, and moved with more conviction in his receiving." Cora would go on to call Wong a "freak athlete," and its not hard to say why. Wong checked out as the fastest catcher in the league, which the same sprint speed as players such as Fernando Tatis Jr and Michael Harris. He may have gotten lucky last year, but a .280 catcher with an OPS above .750 is always going to have value. If he can add even league average framing and blocking (he's been league average in regards to caught stealing and pop time) there's potential to take a little bit of the sting out of the Mookie Betts trade.

thats true, but everyone is coming into this season with their own concerns. Bello and Crawford are already hurt, Crochet and Houck are both coming off career high and innings. Buehler hasnt thrown more than 85 innings in 3 years, giolito obviously didnt pitch last year. I think Cora plays it safe early and Fitts, Preister and Criswell all get spot starts and they all still have minor league options so he can be flexible

yeah and the Bello, Pivetta, and Whitlock all got hurt, were playing 16 games straight to start i think we'll probbaly see some bullpen games