Brandon Glick

I think Duran is expendable because he's a good player with one great season, not a great player with a bunch of good seasons. Again, 2024 was the only year in his career that he was a net-positive in the outfield, and even in his absolute best year, his bat was only 30% above average (at least according to wRC+). That's still an extremely valuable player who shouldn't be dealt for peanuts, but the second-best catching prospect in baseball and a pitcher who has been downright elite prior to this year is not peanuts. Yes, he's a steadying force in the lineup right now, and he's very important to what the Red Sox do at this moment. But pitching is a far bigger need, and like you said, if a No. 2 starter becomes available (which I am of the opinion Cease is), I think you have to make that deal. Also, I'm of the opinion Rafaela has to be in center field everyday. No more messing around with him at second. You don't see the Cubs push PCA anywhere else. Rafaela an elite defender in center and should be treated as such.

None of these are proposals. These are what historical precedent suggests players will be worth. I am sorry that they don't fit your bias, "Duran Is The Man", but that's just the price of doing business in baseball. Of course, Clase is now off the table. Other closers will see their price adjust accordingly.

If he's really willing to grease the wheels on this thing, and assuming the Red Sox still have a jersey leftover from Smoky Joe, "Simeon Wood" wouldn't even need new stitching.

My favorite part of being the interim managing editor/site manager here is that I get to post stuff like this and the only consequence is all of you calling me a moron. Truly a gift I don't take for granted.

This is just perfect. The Red Sox need pitching. The Twins need a long-term left fielder. I'm sure you can see where I'm going with this.

In our community here at Talk Sox, there seems to be something of a divide between the writers and the readers (which is a good thing! Dissenting opinion is healthy [when respectful]!). There are some on either side of the fence that agree with the others, but, effectively, the divide boils down to your opinion on Jarren Duran, and what you think the Red Sox should do with him at the trade deadline. The writers seem to agree that Boston should trade Duran over the next few days for some pitching help, while the readers generally have come to the consensus that the left fielder is far too valuable to deal for anything less than a monster haul. From the information available to us, it seems Craig Breslow and the front office agree with the readers. The team reportedly declined an offer from the San Diego Padres of SP Dylan Cease, C Ethan Salas and another prospect (not SS Leo de Vries). I'll share some opinions on this decision below (spoiler alert: I think it's a joke that the team said no to this), but first, we need to dive into Duran's profile and find out where the disconnect is. First, let's rewind the clock a year and remember the magical season that was 2024. Ranking in the 95th percentile or higher in all three facets of the game—baserunning, hitting, and fielding—Duran emerged as an elite center fielder who could do it all. He slashed .285/.342/.492 good for a 130 wRC+ and 6.8 fWAR. That production earned him his lone All-Star nod and an eight-place finish in AL MVP voting. Of course, leading the league in plate appearances, at-bats, doubles, and triples helped the cause, as did his career-high 21 home runs, 34 stolen bases, and 10 Outs Above Average (23 DRS) in over 1,400 innings in the outfield. By all accounts, he was a superstar in 2024, a true franchise-caliber building block who could do it all. If you disagree with that point, this conversation can't even really get off the ground. In the same vein, that also means Duran's trade value was at its absolute peak this past offseason. Having just turned 28 with four years of team control remaining as a Super Two player, he could have been the second-most prized trade candidate on the winter market, just after current Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet. Instead, Boston didn't really even entertain the idea of trading Duran, keeping him as a core member of the lineup ahead of the 2025 season. And so we arrive to the here and now. With the team's "Big Three" prospects all getting some amount of regular playing time in the majors and Rafael Devers traded, the roster looks a lot different than it did even four months ago in spring training, but Duran remains a constant. Having jumped around the lineup but primarily hitting leadoff (drawing 378 at-bats out of the top spot in the order this season), Duran has spent practically all his time in left field this season while ceding center to Ceddanne Rafaela. That position switch is a good place to start when analyzing Duran's current trade value. Much has been made about his declining defensive value, and for good reason. After playing like a Gold Glover last year, he's been worth -3 OAA (five DRS) in the outfield this year, about 90% of which has come in left field. That's been a fine trade-off for the Sox, since Rafaela ranks seventh in MLB in OAA (13) and will be locked in a brawl with Denzel Clarke for the AL Gold Glove in center this season, but Duran is clearly struggling with the dimensions of Fenway. It's also important to note that last season was the only one in Duran's career that he graded out as a positive defender. Looking at his offensive profile, Duran has also declined in most phases this season. After slicing his strikeout rate by nearly three percent last year, Duran is right back at his career average of 24.3% in 2025. The exact same story rings true for his ISO (.183), wRC+ (109), and wOBA (.333). He's hardly a one-hit wonder, but unless you really, really believe that his 2024 season was the baseline and that this season and all others in his career are abnormalities, the 2025 version of Duran is more or less who he is as a ballplayer. So, that begs the question, is this version of Duran as valuable as the Red Sox seem to be treating him as? Going back to that Padres offer, I want to go on the record and say: If Breslow actually rejected that deal, he needs to pack his things. I'm struggling to believe that report, since that's one of the best rental arms on the market plus a top-30 prospect in baseball (who, admittedly, is struggling with some injuries this year) and more, all for an outfielder with 3.5 years of team control remaining. Yes, Cease isn't having his best year and is due to be a free agent, and Salas (despite resounding praise for his glove work) hasn't yet proven he can hit at the highest levels of the minors. But the story with Cease is the exact same as Duran—tremendous prior production despite a meager campaign this time around—and Salas is a teenager in Double-A who fills a massive need on the roster (backup catcher with a tremendous glove) that projects to be something special down the line (and, if Carlos Narvaez proves to be immovable from the starting catcher position, Salas could have become a Kyle Teel-esque trade asset). I believe that a big reason why the writers are pro-trading Duran is the current state of the roster. Roman Anthony is in the big leagues and should be playing everyday; Rafaela has already monopolized center field in his breakout season and is signed to an eight-year deal; Wilyer Abreu is providing practically equivalent production to Duran (115 wRC+) and is nearly three years younger, cheaper, and has an extra year of team control remaining. That's all three outfield spots covered for the long-term, two of which are held down by left-handed batters. It's a sign of great organizations to be able to trade from a position of strength, and the Red Sox certainly profile as that in the outfield, especially with Jhostynxon Garcia and James Tibbs III roaming around in the upper levels of the farm system. There just isn't enough space for everyone, and stashing Duran at designated hitter as a hybrid fourth outfielder like the Cubs have been doing with Seiya Suzuki this year feels like a mismanagement of resources, especially since keeping that DH spot open is valuable if a bat-first option becomes available in a contending season. Of course, the counter to this is that Duran's value isn't at its peak right now, and trading him away for less than he may be worth is poor decision-making. Indeed, his exit velocity (92.2 mph on average, 88th percentile) and bat speed (74.5 mph, 84th percentile) remain special and portend more offensive output in the future, which is already coming to pass. He's turned the jets on in July, posting a .292/.395/.615 slash line to go along with a 172 wRC+ and 13.5% walk rate. That's even better than what he was doing last year, and a feather in the cap of those who remain adamant that the Red Sox find a way to keep all four outfielders (plus Masataka Yoshida) on their roster. Ultimately, banking on Duran to keep up his recent pace and rediscover his 2024 form feels like an exercise in futility. That's not to say it can't happen—his July performance certainly suggests otherwise—but losing this extra half-season of team control after the deadline might as well make the point moot. The Padres are trying to acquire Duran right now because they have a need in left field this year when they want to compete for a World Series title. What's to say they'll be this aggressive over the offseason, when they could fill that roster spot with a free agent or another trade target? And what's to say the Red Sox, who need pitching right now because they clearly fancy themselves as contenders this year, will be able to get a better offer than the Cease-led package when Duran is 29 and potentially staring down three expensive arbitration years? From my perspective, it feels like the Red Sox are trying too hard to have their cake and eat it too. You can't pursue great starting pitching at the deadline while calling yourself a buyer only to turn down an offer for one (plus a top prospect) that involves dealing a player at slightly sub-optimal value from your organization's strongest position. I get the obsession—last year was really special—but I don't like the mixed messaging. Either you want to win at all costs, or you build for the future. Unless the front office is convinced a soon-to-be 30-year-old outfielder is part of the team's long-term plans, holding onto Duran with a vice grip right now doesn't convince me the Red Sox know their own path forward. View full article

"Don't expect a trade while his value is as its lowest". From the final paragraph. Also, he's only going to get more expensive and is about to turn 30. Roster spots are valuable in and of themselves, especially with so many prospects close to the majors (and thus needing a 40-man spot). If the Sox can get something for him now and don't believe in his future, better than waiting to DFA him when he costs more in a year.

Excuse me while I geek out over this pitching matchup.

The Red Sox are clinging to their postseason hopes at the start of the second half. Can they swing the tide in their favor at the trade deadline? View full video

I think this is a fair take, but both those relievers you mentioned were rentals, and neither of whom are quite as good as Clase is. Clase is earning very little (at least compared to other relievers on the open market) and is still young. Plus, while I, as a Red Sox fan, understand this community's love for Duran, I don't think anyone is valuing him as an All-Star talent right now. I think most would argue that was his ceiling, not the norm. Which, of course, you could argue means that the team should hold onto him in hopes that he boosts his trade value back up, but then you've got an outfield logjam situation at play. The point being: it's going to be messy no matter what you do. Might as well get one of the very best players in baseball if you're going to do something big.

Whatever your feelings on whether Clase is worth the cost, that's going to be the price for him. Chapman, back in 2016 as a rental, was worth two of the better prospects in baseball, plus a MLB reliever. Duran could maybe be the centerpiece of the return, but Cleveland will be able to get a lot more elsewhere on the market if the Red Sox won't include prospects.

For the third straight series, the Red Sox are playing a division-leader in the National League.

With less than a week to go until the trade deadline, I believe it's of the utmost importance to engage in every baseball fan's favorite pastime: confession. Since I don't see any raised hands, I'll volunteer to go first with my scalding hot take for this roster: the Red Sox should still trade Aroldis Chapman before the trade deadline. Yes, despite their pre-All-Star-break ten-game winning streak and current standing as the American League's final wild card, I firmly believe that Boston should trade its All-Star closer. And, yes, this is the same Aroldis Chapman who has a 1.34 ERA and a 39.5% strikeout rate in more than 40 innings this season. So, why do I include such a heinous belief in my rolodex of unassailable baseball convictions? Well, it's the same reason I believe the team should trade Justin Wilson and Walker Buehler (if he has literally any value) at the trade deadline as well: the Red Sox's window of contention extends far beyond this year. Unless you strongly believe that they can win the World Series in 2025 (a notion I admittedly waffle on daily), why should the front office not prioritize the next few seasons, when the "Big Three" prospects are all a little more matured and experienced and, hopefully, there's some reinforcements in the rotation for Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello? Remember, Chapman is a 37-year-old rental having his best season in ages. This isn't normal, and even if you believe this resurgence is sustainable for the next year or two, he's going to cost a lot of money to re-sign after this golden-age campaign. Wouldn't it be better if the bullpen had a stopper with a little more youth and team control on his side? Wouldn't it be nice if the Red Sox could trade Chapman for a nice haul — perhaps getting back some much-needed starting pitching help — and immediately replace him with Emmanuel Clase? That rumor directly mentions the Cubs, though you can bet every contender under the sun will be bombarding Chris Antonetti's phones while trying to gauge Clase's availability. At 51-51 with a -35 run differential, while playing in the same division as the juggernaut Detroit Tigers, the Guardians may have a hard time convincing themselves that they are on track to repeat or improve upon their ALCS finish last year. If that's the case, they may make their elite closer available. Now, Clase hasn't had his best season. Entering play on May 5, the Guardians' closer had a 5.87 ERA and 1.761 WHIP in 15 1/3 innings. The 27-year-old had given up 11 runs on 24 hits and three walks, a far cry from his performance in 2024 when he finished third in AL Cy Young voting. However, he's righted the ship since, having allowed just four earned runs since the start of May, a stretch of 32 2/3 innings. Thanks to the slow start, his Baseball Savant page isn't quite as jaw-dropping as it's been in years past, but he's still one of the best relievers in all of baseball. In case you need reminding about his credentials, in 74 1/3 innings last year, he led the league in games finished (66) and saves (47), compiling an absurd 0.61 ERA with 66 strikeouts, and a laughable 0.659 WHIP. According to ERA+, Emmanuel Clase was 574% better than the average pitcher in 2024. Five hundred and seventy four percent. For reference, longtime Yankees closer Mariano Rivera has the best career ERA+ in history (205, or 105% better than league average). With one year and $6.4 million ($4 million for luxury tax purposes) remaining on his deal after 2025 — plus two very friendly club options at $10 million per season in 2027 and 2028 — Clase is going to cost a pretty penny at the trade deadline if the Guardians move him. He might very well be the best player on the market, depending on what the Nationals decide to do with MacKenzie Gore. What would a Red Sox trade package for him have to look like? The Guardians need offense in the worst way, particularly in the outfield. Roman Anthony obviously isn't going anywhere, and Craig Breslow likely won't surrender Ceddanne Rafaela following the team's renewed focus on defense, but could Cleveland get them to part with Wilyer Abreu in a deal for Clase? Jarren Duran would be a preferred alternative from the Sox's perspective, but with less team control and nearly three years on Abreu in age, the Guardians might not accept him as the centerpiece for their esteemed fireman. Prospects would likely have to be involved as well — Jhostynxon Garcia stands out as an obvious candidate if the major league outfield isn't pilfered — but the overarching idea remains: Clase is going to drain any acquiring team of valuable resources. It's not often a franchise can justify that kind of expenditure on a reliever, but there's few relievers with his track record and team-friendly arrangements. If it feels untenable for the Red Sox to surrender Chapman at the deadline given their playoff positioning, perhaps a trade for one of the great modern closers will make that notion a little more bearable. View full article

I know the team we're playing are all really good (and the Dodgers are up next), but this 1-4 start to the second half is not a good look. Desperate for a win tonight.

Last season, Tanner Houck emerged. After four years of impressive cameos — including a stint in 2022 out of the bullpen — the big right-hander finally got everything to click in one glorious season. Starting 30 games and logging just shy of 180 innings, Houck turned in a tidy 3.12 ERA (3.32 FIP) while leading the American League in home runs allowed per nine innings (0.6). A confluence of factors finally all went his way, and suddenly, the Red Sox had their first All-Star starting pitcher since Nathan Eovaldi in 2021. Fast forward to the offseason, and the Red Sox decided to pair their homegrown ace with yet another White-Sox-developed southpaw, Garrett Crochet. The rotation's outlook changed in a hurry, as the team had two surefire pieces atop their staff heading into a crucial season... or so it appeared. "Surefire" surely wasn't the right term to use for Houck, who has been nothing short of disastrous this season. Through nine starts and 43 2/3 innings, he recorded a ghastly 6.11 FIP, which somehow looks masterful compared to his 8.04 ERA. Nothing was working for him early in the season, as his home run rate skyrocketed, his strikeout rate plummeted, and his walk rate declined from his breakout 2024 campaign. Eventually, the Red Sox had seen enough, placing him on the 15-day injured list with a strained forearm flexor on May 12. That was over two months ago. Now, at last, there is an update on Houck's status, and it is a poor one. There's no guarantee that this injury ends Houck's season, by the initial prognosis doesn't look good. With no given timetable — and another lengthy rehab assignment likely needed whenever he does feel healthy again — no one can count on him contributing to the cause for the remainder of this season. In conjunction with Hunter Dobbins' season-ending ACL injury, the Red Sox will obviously need to acquire one, if not multiple, starting pitchers at the trade deadline if they have any real hopes of competing down the stretch this season. But beyond the scope of the team's current playoff chase, Houck's future is now in as much doubt as his status for this year. His batted ball metrics were all in the bottom quartile among MLB pitchers before he got hurt, and only his chase and ground ball rates clocked in above average. Obviously, his injury hampered his performance, but there's more at play than just pure health issues. Traditionally a three-pitch pitcher, Houck abandoned his seldom-used cutter this year in favor of a seldom-used four-seam fastball. The change didn't yield positive results, as, in 44 offerings, opposing batters hit .600 against the pitch. They posted a ridiculous .839 wOBA and slugged an unfathomable 1.400 against Houck's four-seamer. The sample is tiny, and his expected stats cut all of those numbers practically in half, but suffice to say that pitch, at least in its current form, isn't long for his arsenal. That's a big problem considering that Houck has yet to find a fastball that really suits his pitch mix. He relies on a sinker as his primary heater, but hitters were slugging .533 against that pitch this year, too. Even last year, when Houck's sweeper and splitter were performing better than ever, batters still had an expected slug (xSLG) of .453 and an xwOBA of .382 against the sinker. And, before anyone cites velocity concerns due to his arm issues, it should be noted that Houck was throwing his sinker a whole mile per hour faster this season than last, and his four-seamer was hit 95 mpg on average. A big part of the reason that the team has tried to get Houck to implement a four-seam fastball is his strict movement profile. He's always been tremendous at changing hitter's hand positioning by pitching them inside and outside with pitches that move a lot along the horizontal plane, but take a look at his pitch chart for this year and note how limited the change in movement is across his pitches on the y-axis: His breaking pitches don't sink much and his heaters don't rise much. That's not a recipe for success, and it makes changing hitters' eye levels practically impossible. For a reliever, that kind of arsenal can have some success, but when a starter has to go multiple times through an order, hitters can catch on pretty quickly to the gambit. For those wondering, this same issue was even more exacerbated last year, though his splitter had more vertical drop variance and he threw his sweeper more often than his sinker, which, in my estimation, is his best opportunity to succeed as a guy who likes to pitch backward. None of this condemns Houck to a future in the bullpen or Triple-A or anything like that, but if Houck, 29, is going to be successful in the long-term, he's going to need a reliable fastball. Are the Red Sox the right organization to help him unlock that pitch once he returns from injury? Perhaps, but given their proximity to contention, they may not be able to afford finding out, at least at the major league level. Don't expect a trade while his value is as its lowest, but in just four months, Tanner Houck has gone from "surefire" No. 2 starter to an injury-riddled reclamation project. If someone else prefers to handle the fixer-upper, it wouldn't be the worst decision for the Red Sox to hand him off. View full article

Ahead of a key 2025 trade deadline, Talk Sox reflects on some of the best swaps in Red Sox history. View full video

This is a really important start for Fitts ahead of the trade deadline. He may be pitching for his rotation spot in the final two months of the season.

Alex Cora suggested Roman Anthony will play the outfield more often in the season's second half. What does that mean for the team's incumbent starters? View full video