Brandon Glick

I genuinely do not know who is starting today's game. FanGraphs suggests it's a bullpen game with Criswell leading the charge. ESPN and MLB say it's TBD. I think it might be May, who is on the normal four days of rest after starting against the Red Sox last week. But he was just acquired yesterday, so maybe not? We'll see...

In total at the 2025 MLB trade deadline, the Boston Red Sox brought in two players (pitchers Steven Matz and Dustin May) and shipped out three prospects (infielder Blaze Jordan, outfielders James Tibbs III and Zach Ehrhard). It was an underwhelming deadline to say the least, though is it really as bad as it looks? Like movie, album or video game reviews, grading trades immediately after they come out is a futile task. You're sure to piss someone off by assigning a grade they disagree with, and most people don't even have the same relative scale. Heck, IGN gives practically every single major film that comes out nowadays a 7/10. Nevertheless, they do serve as an easily digestible way to recap an important event, and it's fun to look back on a grade years down the line when the benefit of hindsight has rendered them incorrect and obsolete. For the crowd more interested in the overarching stuff, I'll share my general thoughts on the Red Sox's deadline here before diving into each trade below. Given info from trusted sources, my understanding of how the Red Sox approached this deadline is as follows: Craig Breslow's plan was to wait out the market, not with the intention of driving prices down, but with the goal of seeing how other American League contenders handled their business. With the Yankees, Blue Jays, Astros, and Mariners all going all-in at the deadline (and the Rays and Tigers making some solid moves to beef up their rosters), it became clear that the Red Sox would have had to gut the farm system in order to compete with the likes of the newly-formed ruling class in the junior circuit. With a team more built for 2026 and beyond than 2025, Breslow pulled prospects like Payton Tolle and Jhostynxon Garcia from deals, which effectively took them out of the running for Joe Ryan, MacKenzie Gore, and the like. We know they were close on guys like Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, too, but the best prospect they were willing to part with was Tibbs, who the Dodgers took more of a liking to than the Diamondbacks. Let's unpack that briefly. Did the Red Sox do the right thing in the face of the Yankees building a super bullpen or the Astros reuniting with Carlos Correa? Objectively, probably yes. Subjectively, hell no. The team was never dealing Tolle without a controllable starter coming back in return, but their insistence on holding onto every top outfielder on the team just remains a mystery to me. You don't want to deal Jarren Duran (or Wilyer Abreu)? Fine, but then at least make the prospects who are blocked by all those guys, like Garcia, available. Ultimately, I just think the messaging has been mixed from Breslow and his front office. They shockingly sold Rafael Devers in the middle of a winning streak and swore they would be buyers at the deadline. Technically, they did live up to that promise, but getting rental flyers in Matz and May hardly qualifies as a team doing more than the bare minimum. The Red Sox are in worse shape now in terms of both farm system talent and relative major league talent (i.e., the teams close to them in the standings got better than they did). No matter how you chalk it up, that's a failure. Boston Red Sox 2025 Trade Deadline Grades Trade: Boston Red Sox trade INF Blaze Jordan to St. Louis Cardinals for LHP Steven Matz I have to rewrite this section after the deadline hit because I cannot believe this was the only bullpen move the team made. Mind you, I wasn't necessarily expecting the team to add another reliever. The bullpen now has five left-handers (Matz, Aroldis Chapman, Justin Wilson, Chris Murphy, Brennan Bernardino), three of whom are due to be free agents at the end of the year. Considering that they picked up a potential closer in Jordan Hicks in the Devers trade, it is absolutely bewildering to me that they didn't deal Chapman given the price closers were going for at the deadline this year. Mason Miller and Jhoan Duran are controllable and in a slightly different tier of reliever, but oh my lord, did you see what the Athletics and Twins got in return for them? I like Chapman, and had the team made any other moves that signified they were planning to "go for it" this year, I don't mind the idea of hanging onto your 37-year-old rental closer having a career resurrection in Boston. But Matz and May do not qualify as such. This was an easy chance to upgrade the team for 2026 and beyond without gutting the current roster of an irreplaceable piece, and though that's not technically what I'm grading, Matz is completely and wholly redundant on this team right now. He's great against opposing lefties, but so is, like, half the bullpen. Blaze Jordan is a good prospect who was having a good year, but he was eminently blocked at just about every infield position. He's not a huge loss, but it's just odd to trade a valuable player for a pitcher who does nothing this roster already couldn't do. Matz—who has a 3.44 ERA and 2.87 FIP in 55 innings this year—will pitch well in Boston until he becomes a free agent in November. Well enough to change literally anything about this team's fate? Probably not. A very nothing-burger move. Grade: C Trade: Boston Red Sox trade OF James Tibbs III, OF Zach Ehrhard to Los Angeles Dodgers for RHP Dustin May This ended up being the "blockbuster" move of the deadline for the Sox, insofar as you don't count Devers and you really stretch the definition of blockbuster. I really do like May, who has a tantalizing fastball-sweeper mix and is still only 27 years old. However, his results (4.85 ERA, 4.70 FIP in 104 innings this year) scream mediocrity, and that's about the last thing this rotation needed. His ceiling is that of a No. 2 starter, but his current form is more like a higher-upside Walker Buehler. If he weren't an impending free agent, I could see the logic behind this move, but it's hard to get a guy to change his mechanics/pitch mix/delivery/spin in the middle of the year, especially two months out from free agency. If there's a plan in place to work with him and potentially re-sign him, I can be talked into this being a smart, under-the-radar play. If not, I just don't see it for this team. If it was a rental starter the team was willing to settle for, then why not pony up a little further to go after a sure-thing veteran like Merrill Kelly? Tibbs is a very good player (.760 OPS across two levels this season), and it's frustrating to see the team use the best prospect acquired in the Devers deal for a rental pitcher who may not be around next spring. Still, I've pounded the drum for the team to use its extreme outfield depth to upgrade the roster, and it did so by letting Tibbs and Ehrhard (.796 OPS across two levels) go. I just don't know if May was the right guy to do it for. Grade (if re-signed): B Grade (if not re-signed): D+ What do you think of the Red Sox's deadline moves? What grade would you give Boston for their haul (or lack thereof)? View full article

Glad they're passing on him for that price (Top 100 guy, it appears). Get a sure thing right now.

Also, feel free to dump league-wide trades in here, too. Red Sox are involved in a lot, from what we know, though I'd only expect them to complete one (maybe two) more deals today: one bringing in a starter, and then one potentially trading out one of the rental relievers.

Hey all! In lieu of our normal game thread, we're going to roll with this deadline thread. As a recap of what's already happened with the Red Sox (will keep this updated throughout the day): Red Sox trade Blaze Jordan for Steven Matz (Cardinals) That's a left-handed reliever down. What are you thinking with the deadline coming in at 6pm EST today?

I mentioned Duran (for a single paragraph) precisely because I anticipated people ignoring the focus of the article, Cease. He's a great target for the Red Sox and I'd hate for him to get lost in the shuffle because people disagree with me about Duran's value.

Thankfully Bregman's absence is confirmed a planned rest day for a day game after a night game. I don't expect any deals during the game; I imagine post-5pm (EST), the dam will break around the league.

With a day off tomorrow, this could be the last look at the current version of the Red Sox's roster. Hug watch is on.

I know, I know. I need to stop trying to make fetch happen. But, unlike my previous piece, which was very popular and beloved by all, I'm not advocating for the Red Sox to trade anyone away. Instead, something caught my eye in the comment section on my exploration of Jarren Duran's value, which was a near-unanimous consensus that Dylan Cease, the San Diego Padres starter who was offered in a failed exchange for Duran, just isn't that good—or, at least, that he's been awful this season. I take issue with that assessment, especially since he's a proper fit for what the Red Sox want to do with their starting pitchers. And before any of you ask, no I haven't changed my stance on trading Duran. I remain steadfast in the belief that he provides more value to other teams than the Red Sox, but if Cease and Ethan Salas weren't enough to get a deal done at this deadline, I can't imagine anything will. So, lock him behind the air-tight seal on Planet Druidia, don't tell anyone the combination is "1, 2, 3, 4, 5", and pray he's still wearing one of those meaningful-yet-hideous yellow "Boston" uniforms on August 1. Now, turning our attention back to Cease, he's good! Like, No. 2 starter good, and a seamless fit between Brayan Bello and Garrett Crochet at the top of the rotation. His surface stats, which have been the subject of much criticism, aren't pretty; a 4.79 ERA, 1.29 home runs allowed per nine innings, and 1.34 WHIP hardly scream "co-ace". It also doesn't help that he's only accrued six of baseball's most over-cited statistic, quality starts, a number that ties him with Walker Buehler, who hasn't exactly been a world-beater in his first season in Boston. Oh, and also, he just got shelled in his most recent start against the New York Mets on July 28, surrendering five earned runs and five walks in 4 2/3 innings in a game the Padres miraculously won 7-6. Acknowledging all that, I'm sure the comment section is ready to have a field day with my support of Cease. However, lest I leave myself defenseless, it's important to point out that the majority of the damage done to Cease came after he was hit in the back of the head by a comebacker off the bat of Francisco Lindor. And, for what it's worth, his stuff was still downright elite in the outing, as every single one of his pitches graded out as above average on the Stuff+ leaderboards. That most recent start was really a microcosm of Cease's whole 2025 season. His stuff remains as good as ever, but some bad bounces and pitch counts that get elevated far too quickly have prevented him from delivering the caliber of performance fans expect from someone of his stature. His xERA (3.53) and FIP (3.64) both grade out on the upper-end of starting pitchers, and his chase (31.3%), whiff (33.8), and strikeout (29.9%) rates are all above the 80th percentile among all qualified MLB pitchers. Each of those numbers far surpasses what Bello and Lucas Giolito have done in Boston this year, and even the mighty Garrett Crochet falls short of Cease's whiff rate. In fact, remove batted ball metrics from the data set, and Crochet's peripherals align almost eerily well with Cease in 2025. Of course, you can't actually remove batted ball metrics in reality, and that's where Cease's profile looks the rockiest. His average exit velocity allowed ranks as exactly league-average (89.4 mph), but his barrel rate allowed (10.7%) and hard-hit rate allowed (42.3%) ranks in the bottom-third of qualified pitchers. He's also inducing practically no ground balls (37.1% rate, 24th-percentile), though that's an issue that stretches back to even his best years with the Chicago White Sox. Apologies for the whiplash that I'm putting you through in this piece, but even those poor metrics aren't a death knell to Cease's value. That batted ball data is nearly identical to his 2024 season, when he posted a 3.47 ERA in nearly 190 innings and finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting. So, what's different this time around? Well, a .323 BABIP that's 60 points higher than last year's mark (and 30 points higher than his career number) isn't helping the cause, nor is the Padres' bizarre tinkering with is arsenal. Since arriving in San Diego, he's added a sweeper and sinker to his pitch mix, the latter of which is getting hammered to the tune of a .500 batting average and .489 wOBA this season. His fastball-slider combo remains as good as ever, though he's throwing those pitches a combined 87% of the time. His search for a viable third pitch remains ongoing, and his knuckle curve certainly hasn't been up to the task, allowing a .304 BA and .426 wOBA. Like above, it should be noted the expected stats on all of his pitches far surpasses the actual performance of them this season, and if you believe in Andrew Bailey and Craig Breslow's pitching model, it's not hard to believe they could be the ones to unlock the full potential of his arsenal. Just a brief look will show you how much he'd benefit from working with a team that emphasizes sliders actually sliding across the horizontal plane. So, if you can get A.J. Preller to give up on the whole Jarren Duran pursuit, and if you can isolate Cease as a rental starter in a hypothetical deal, he suddenly becomes a lot more attractive for the Red Sox. He alone won't be worth Duran, and it's reasonable to suggest a prospect near or just barely on the consensus Top 100 lists could make for a solid one-for-one swap (or, alternatively, a couple of prospects that rank around the top ten in Boston's farm system). Personally, I think Jhostynxon Garcia assumes that mantle perfectly, though if he's too rich for Breslow's blood, a package centered around James Tibbs and a low-level flyer could be enough to get the deal done. Remember that rental pitchers historically always go for more than rental bats, and the price on those has already been set somewhat high this year (which can certainly be attributed to the lack of surefire sellers on the market). Also, the Padres don't have to trade Cease—you need to give them something better than the compensatory pick they'd receive from letting him sign elsewhere after slapping him with the qualifying offer. If the Red Sox do fancy themselves as contenders this year, which keeping Duran around through the trade deadline would suggest, then it's absolutely imperative that they bring in a good starting pitcher to round out the rotation. If they'd rather not sell the farm for a player at the peak of his value with a few years of team control remaining (Joe Ryan, Edward Cabrera), then they could make a calculated move by bringing in Cease and hoping they make the right tweaks to align his results with his peripherals. View full article

Chris Paddack was traded yesterday, hence the start from Pierson Ohl. Hopefully, the Sox can take advantage.

I completely agree Cease isn't worth what he once was, and if you think Duran is too good for him, then I stand by you in that belief (I am a huge Salas fan, which pushes that particular deal over the edge for me). The issue is Duran is absolutely not bringing in a controllable No. 2 starter. Like, the Pirates will not accept him for Mitch Keller in a one-for-one swap. A very good outfielder though he may be, opposing teams aren't going to value him at his 2024 peak, they're going to value him as guy about to turn 29 who is playing high-quality (but not elite) baseball this year. If that's disparate enough for you (you meaning "anyone") to hold onto him in the hopes that another team offers more for him over the offseason, then I understand and support that notion. I just remain steadfast in the belief that losing this half-year of team control and this pennant race when there are zero good outfielders available on the trade market is going to hurt Duran's value too much to lose out on.

I think Duran is expendable because he's a good player with one great season, not a great player with a bunch of good seasons. Again, 2024 was the only year in his career that he was a net-positive in the outfield, and even in his absolute best year, his bat was only 30% above average (at least according to wRC+). That's still an extremely valuable player who shouldn't be dealt for peanuts, but the second-best catching prospect in baseball and a pitcher who has been downright elite prior to this year is not peanuts. Yes, he's a steadying force in the lineup right now, and he's very important to what the Red Sox do at this moment. But pitching is a far bigger need, and like you said, if a No. 2 starter becomes available (which I am of the opinion Cease is), I think you have to make that deal. Also, I'm of the opinion Rafaela has to be in center field everyday. No more messing around with him at second. You don't see the Cubs push PCA anywhere else. Rafaela an elite defender in center and should be treated as such.

None of these are proposals. These are what historical precedent suggests players will be worth. I am sorry that they don't fit your bias, "Duran Is The Man", but that's just the price of doing business in baseball. Of course, Clase is now off the table. Other closers will see their price adjust accordingly.

If he's really willing to grease the wheels on this thing, and assuming the Red Sox still have a jersey leftover from Smoky Joe, "Simeon Wood" wouldn't even need new stitching.

My favorite part of being the interim managing editor/site manager here is that I get to post stuff like this and the only consequence is all of you calling me a moron. Truly a gift I don't take for granted.

This is just perfect. The Red Sox need pitching. The Twins need a long-term left fielder. I'm sure you can see where I'm going with this.

In our community here at Talk Sox, there seems to be something of a divide between the writers and the readers (which is a good thing! Dissenting opinion is healthy [when respectful]!). There are some on either side of the fence that agree with the others, but, effectively, the divide boils down to your opinion on Jarren Duran, and what you think the Red Sox should do with him at the trade deadline. The writers seem to agree that Boston should trade Duran over the next few days for some pitching help, while the readers generally have come to the consensus that the left fielder is far too valuable to deal for anything less than a monster haul. From the information available to us, it seems Craig Breslow and the front office agree with the readers. The team reportedly declined an offer from the San Diego Padres of SP Dylan Cease, C Ethan Salas and another prospect (not SS Leo de Vries). I'll share some opinions on this decision below (spoiler alert: I think it's a joke that the team said no to this), but first, we need to dive into Duran's profile and find out where the disconnect is. First, let's rewind the clock a year and remember the magical season that was 2024. Ranking in the 95th percentile or higher in all three facets of the game—baserunning, hitting, and fielding—Duran emerged as an elite center fielder who could do it all. He slashed .285/.342/.492 good for a 130 wRC+ and 6.8 fWAR. That production earned him his lone All-Star nod and an eight-place finish in AL MVP voting. Of course, leading the league in plate appearances, at-bats, doubles, and triples helped the cause, as did his career-high 21 home runs, 34 stolen bases, and 10 Outs Above Average (23 DRS) in over 1,400 innings in the outfield. By all accounts, he was a superstar in 2024, a true franchise-caliber building block who could do it all. If you disagree with that point, this conversation can't even really get off the ground. In the same vein, that also means Duran's trade value was at its absolute peak this past offseason. Having just turned 28 with four years of team control remaining as a Super Two player, he could have been the second-most prized trade candidate on the winter market, just after current Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet. Instead, Boston didn't really even entertain the idea of trading Duran, keeping him as a core member of the lineup ahead of the 2025 season. And so we arrive to the here and now. With the team's "Big Three" prospects all getting some amount of regular playing time in the majors and Rafael Devers traded, the roster looks a lot different than it did even four months ago in spring training, but Duran remains a constant. Having jumped around the lineup but primarily hitting leadoff (drawing 378 at-bats out of the top spot in the order this season), Duran has spent practically all his time in left field this season while ceding center to Ceddanne Rafaela. That position switch is a good place to start when analyzing Duran's current trade value. Much has been made about his declining defensive value, and for good reason. After playing like a Gold Glover last year, he's been worth -3 OAA (five DRS) in the outfield this year, about 90% of which has come in left field. That's been a fine trade-off for the Sox, since Rafaela ranks seventh in MLB in OAA (13) and will be locked in a brawl with Denzel Clarke for the AL Gold Glove in center this season, but Duran is clearly struggling with the dimensions of Fenway. It's also important to note that last season was the only one in Duran's career that he graded out as a positive defender. Looking at his offensive profile, Duran has also declined in most phases this season. After slicing his strikeout rate by nearly three percent last year, Duran is right back at his career average of 24.3% in 2025. The exact same story rings true for his ISO (.183), wRC+ (109), and wOBA (.333). He's hardly a one-hit wonder, but unless you really, really believe that his 2024 season was the baseline and that this season and all others in his career are abnormalities, the 2025 version of Duran is more or less who he is as a ballplayer. So, that begs the question, is this version of Duran as valuable as the Red Sox seem to be treating him as? Going back to that Padres offer, I want to go on the record and say: If Breslow actually rejected that deal, he needs to pack his things. I'm struggling to believe that report, since that's one of the best rental arms on the market plus a top-30 prospect in baseball (who, admittedly, is struggling with some injuries this year) and more, all for an outfielder with 3.5 years of team control remaining. Yes, Cease isn't having his best year and is due to be a free agent, and Salas (despite resounding praise for his glove work) hasn't yet proven he can hit at the highest levels of the minors. But the story with Cease is the exact same as Duran—tremendous prior production despite a meager campaign this time around—and Salas is a teenager in Double-A who fills a massive need on the roster (backup catcher with a tremendous glove) that projects to be something special down the line (and, if Carlos Narvaez proves to be immovable from the starting catcher position, Salas could have become a Kyle Teel-esque trade asset). I believe that a big reason why the writers are pro-trading Duran is the current state of the roster. Roman Anthony is in the big leagues and should be playing everyday; Rafaela has already monopolized center field in his breakout season and is signed to an eight-year deal; Wilyer Abreu is providing practically equivalent production to Duran (115 wRC+) and is nearly three years younger, cheaper, and has an extra year of team control remaining. That's all three outfield spots covered for the long-term, two of which are held down by left-handed batters. It's a sign of great organizations to be able to trade from a position of strength, and the Red Sox certainly profile as that in the outfield, especially with Jhostynxon Garcia and James Tibbs III roaming around in the upper levels of the farm system. There just isn't enough space for everyone, and stashing Duran at designated hitter as a hybrid fourth outfielder like the Cubs have been doing with Seiya Suzuki this year feels like a mismanagement of resources, especially since keeping that DH spot open is valuable if a bat-first option becomes available in a contending season. Of course, the counter to this is that Duran's value isn't at its peak right now, and trading him away for less than he may be worth is poor decision-making. Indeed, his exit velocity (92.2 mph on average, 88th percentile) and bat speed (74.5 mph, 84th percentile) remain special and portend more offensive output in the future, which is already coming to pass. He's turned the jets on in July, posting a .292/.395/.615 slash line to go along with a 172 wRC+ and 13.5% walk rate. That's even better than what he was doing last year, and a feather in the cap of those who remain adamant that the Red Sox find a way to keep all four outfielders (plus Masataka Yoshida) on their roster. Ultimately, banking on Duran to keep up his recent pace and rediscover his 2024 form feels like an exercise in futility. That's not to say it can't happen—his July performance certainly suggests otherwise—but losing this extra half-season of team control after the deadline might as well make the point moot. The Padres are trying to acquire Duran right now because they have a need in left field this year when they want to compete for a World Series title. What's to say they'll be this aggressive over the offseason, when they could fill that roster spot with a free agent or another trade target? And what's to say the Red Sox, who need pitching right now because they clearly fancy themselves as contenders this year, will be able to get a better offer than the Cease-led package when Duran is 29 and potentially staring down three expensive arbitration years? From my perspective, it feels like the Red Sox are trying too hard to have their cake and eat it too. You can't pursue great starting pitching at the deadline while calling yourself a buyer only to turn down an offer for one (plus a top prospect) that involves dealing a player at slightly sub-optimal value from your organization's strongest position. I get the obsession—last year was really special—but I don't like the mixed messaging. Either you want to win at all costs, or you build for the future. Unless the front office is convinced a soon-to-be 30-year-old outfielder is part of the team's long-term plans, holding onto Duran with a vice grip right now doesn't convince me the Red Sox know their own path forward. View full article

"Don't expect a trade while his value is as its lowest". From the final paragraph. Also, he's only going to get more expensive and is about to turn 30. Roster spots are valuable in and of themselves, especially with so many prospects close to the majors (and thus needing a 40-man spot). If the Sox can get something for him now and don't believe in his future, better than waiting to DFA him when he costs more in a year.

Excuse me while I geek out over this pitching matchup.

The Red Sox are clinging to their postseason hopes at the start of the second half. Can they swing the tide in their favor at the trade deadline? View full video