Alex Mayes

Andrew Bailey, former coach of the San Francisco Giants, has been tasked with returning the Red Sox pitching staff to prominence. The hiring of Andrew Bailey helped signal a change of guard with Red Sox pitching. Dave Bush was okay at best, and when looking at the successful pitchers that he could get nothing out of (I’m looking at you, Ryan Brasier) it was obvious that there was a disconnect somewhere in the pitcher's meetings and routines. The tandem of Bailey and Craig Breslow gave hope to the Sox faithful that maybe a focus on pitching was on the day one agenda. Although the second half of this season has been filled with once-reliable starters sprinting past their career innings high and bullpen implosion after bullpen implosion, there’s a reason for hope going into the 2025 season. We are looking at the season numbers, and we can see that despite the second-half issues, Bailey’s impact has been profound on the staff. With 22 games left in the season, there’s room for these numbers to change, but overall, we see positive growth from Dave Bush's last year to Andrew Bailey's first year. While there are some declines in performance, notably the drop in K/9 and WAR, BABIP is down, and the ERA has improved even with the second-half numbers factored in. To at least some degree, the Bailey lab is working. This led me to examine Bailey’s first two years as a pitching coach with the San Francisco Giants courtesy of FanGraphs' stat library. Although one was the COVID-shortened 2020 season, I was hoping the data from those two seasons could help provide the blueprint for the 2025 season in Boston. Taking into account a 60-game season in 2020, if we compare the 2019 pre-Bailey numbers to that season, we notice a decrease in WAR and an increase in ERA, K/9, and BB/9. However, from 2020 to 2021, the Giants had one of the best baseball pitching staffs, sporting a 22 WAR, a massively improved ERA, a lower BB/9, and a higher K/9. This shows that when surrounded by pitchers who buy into the system, there have been some rumblings of certain guys in the pen not fully believing in Bailey’s system. When given an entire off-season with a rotation intact, Bailey can indeed make magic on the pitching mound. Keeping in mind that the Sox went into the season with Lucas Giolito projected to be the actual number one pitcher of the staff, Tanner Houck fighting for a rotation spot, Brayan Bello stepping up into his brand new contract, and Garrett Whitlock being shuttled from the rotation to the pen. Back between injuries, it is no real surprise that Bailey's plans for the season went off the rails before the season could even get underway. Give him time to work his magic fully, he picked the Red Sox job over higher-profile offers for a reason. He sees something with the Red Sox pitching staff and believes reinforcements are coming. No one expected Houck to take a giant leap forward this season and force the conversation that his name should be in the rotation for as long as he is in Boston, but imagine this step with a healthy Giolito to help anchor the rotation. Looking at the blueprint, the future of the pitching staff looks bright with Andrew Bailey at the helm. As long as Craig Breslow is allowed to deal from Boston's prospect capital for young, controllable arms and Bailey has an entire offseason program to work his magic with the arms currently in the rotation, there’s reason to be optimistic about the future of this staff coming along at the same time the young core finally reaches the majors together. Hopefully, that paves the way back to AL East titles and World Series championships for many years to come. View full article

From the moment he signed to reports that Chaim Bloom wasn’t comfortable with the deal after it was signed, Trevor Story has been a hot-button issue within Red Sox fandom. There was some excitement when Trevor Story's deal was announced, even though the contract length looked maybe a year or two too long, and there were concerns about Story's numbers outside of Colorado. Writing about those feels like beating a dead horse, though. He’s here, and with how quickly news went from "we will see him with a full offseason to prepare for 2025" to "he could be here in September," it suddenly begs the question: how does he fit into a crowded infield for the remainder of this season and through the end of his contract in 2027, assuming his club option for 2028 is not picked up? Story’s base stats since he signed with the Red Sox don’t offer a full overview of what type of player he is. In 2022, the first year of the deal, he suited up for 94 games and hit .238 while battling hand and foot injuries throughout the season. In 2023, Tommy John's surgery limited him to just 43 games, in which he hit .203. Finally, this year, Story was on the field for eight games before a diving play resulted in a fracture to the glenoid in his left shoulder that required surgery. The typical timeline for recovery from such an injury is around six months. Before his deal in Boston, he was considered a top shortstop in the game. Many middle infielders have stepped up in the wake of Story’s injury. Notably, David Hamilton is manning a middle infield spot while Ceddanne Rafaela has been shuttled between center and shortstop. Add Vaughn Grissom, who is hanging out in Worcester, and Romy Gonzalez. You suddenly find yourself with multiple options for two positions, not counting Marcelo Mayer or Kristian Campbell, who could be pushing for a roster spot in spring training next year. So where will this leave Trevor Story when he can return from his shoulder injury? If that is this season, you can’t put him at DH. His numbers from the last two seasons prove that Story’s best offering to this club is on the defensive side of the ball. The easy answer is to play him at his natural position, shortstop, and allow Ceddanne to shift back to his platinum glove position in center. However, it’s not easy because of his poor offensive performance. As long as Tyler O’Neill stays healthy enough to trot out to right field most days of the week, keeping Ceddanne at shortstop through the end of the season makes the most sense. Given this, Trevor Story should be used in a second-base platoon split with David Hamilton. Traditionally, Story has hit left-handed pitchers better than right-handed pitchers, so allowing him to platoon with Hamilton would play to his strengths while allowing him to ease back into the grind of the rest of the major league season. Beyond the end of this year, though, where Trevor Story fits on this roster is even cloudier. An aging shortstop who has noticeably lost offensive firepower and has questions surrounding his arm strength doesn’t fit with the emerging young core the Red Sox currently have. Designating him for assignment is out of the question, and his trade market during the offseason is currently non-existent. However, allowing him to platoon second and showcase that he still has some value in the trade market is, I think, the current plan here. If Story can get back on the field this season and prove he’s still got something left in the tank, there will be suitors. Not a lot, but some. The Red Sox will have to eat a chunk of that salary, which they should be okay with doing, to move on from a player who no longer fits the team's timeline. Who would those interested teams be? It's hard to predict this early in the process, but someone somewhere should be willing to take on Trevor Story at a discounted rate. Should those phone calls start coming in, Craig Breslow would be crazy not to answer them. View full article