5GoldGlovesOF,75

Don: Bloom Consigliere: O'Halloran Mouthpiece (lawyer): Kennedy Capos: Romero, Scott, Ferreira Chaffeur/Bodyguard: Cora Soldiers: 40-man strong

Here is an interesting article Bloom wrote while still in college that was posted on another chat site: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/2475/evaluating-a-rod-is-he-worth-the-money-in-todays-market/ It's about the top-paid player in 2003 -- ARod -- and discusses his gargantuan contract in terms of value and production. Bloom analyzes and compares other star players and concludes that ARod's consistency is actually a worthy investment that can't be replaced. Hopefully, Bloom still uses such metrics when making a decision on the Mookster...

i'm not worried about Benintendi making the adjustments to be a good player going forward. But his bat slowed down last year. It seemed like he was always fouling back the first pitch and in more 0-2 holes than anyone; he got a lot of called strikes just off the outside corner, no matter who the ump was... it made me wonder if he bitched too loudly at some blue and all the umps were backing up their bro. When he first came up he had a quicker pull swing but pitchers have adjusted by throwing more crap away and maybe he was looking oppo too much. More Ks and less BBs mean it's time to change back. The easiest way to snap a slump used to be to just try to hit it back up the middle, but Benny got burned a lot by shifts doing that, so it was a very frustrating year.

I appreciate the breakdown of the comps but in no way are they predictive of a breakdown in Betts. Puckett's eyes would be bad luck for a player of any height. Raines may have lost an edge getting hooked on recreational drugs. People may have been smaller in Morgan's century, but he was known as Little Joe and also hands-down the best MLBer for an entire decade. To go back even further, Willie Mays -- listed as 5'10, 170 -- posted 58.5 WAR from age 33 through the end of his career. I'm not saying Betts is another Mays, but some professional writers have made those 5-tool, boyish-enthusiasm comps; when I first saw Mookie's swing, with his inhumanly quick wrists, I actually thought Aaron... and The Hammer was another player without huge muscles who starred a long, long time. Mays and Aaron were small compared to contemporaries like Frank Robinson, McCovey, Stargell, etc. Why can't Betts be another Mays or Aaron, not in pure slugging, but longevity? Granted, Trout is built like a linebacker and you'd think he'd be more durable, but he's been hurt the past two years, as have Stanton and Judge. Maybe body types aren't as important in projections as a player's make-up and pedigree. Maybe wiry sinew is more supple than bulk. Before he was a star, the Sox held a spring training athletic competition where they split one side of the roster vs. another -- I remember reading all these guys with rings (Papi, Pedey, etc.) wanted to be on Betts' team, because he was such a better all-around athlete. I think every team accepts the fact that when they sign someone long term that they're actually paying for the first two-thirds of a contract (hopefully). Boston can't possibly replace Betts, and the only thing they know for sure is that they have him now. Generational talent doesn't grow on a farm (team, ha), and the Sox got lucky with a 5th round pick. If they trade him, someone else will get lucky.

Thread speculation here and elsewhere of Bloom getting hired as maybe the guy assigned to trade Betts is stressful. To help both the Red Sox and Boston fans ease their concerns about the aging effects of "undersized" and "speed" players, here are total b-WARs and yearly averages for the prime 27-32 ages of recent Hall of Famers listed under 5 foot, 10 inches in height: Tim Raines 26.4, 4.4; Pudge Rodriguez 28.3, 4.7; Kirby Puckett 31.1, 5.2; Joe Morgan 53.4, 8.9. Also included is Dustin Pedroia 31.7, 5.3; Irod and Pedey weren't feared base-stealers (though Pedroia actually swiped more bags than Puckett), but both made their livings with quick feet. There is absolutely no reason to expect Mookie Betts' overall value not to average between 4.5 and 5 WAR for the next six seasons, which would give him a career total commensurate with the average outfielder enshrined in Cooperstown. Open the vaults and pay this future Hall of Famer through his prime!

More Mookie (I've revised the numbers and corrected some of my math) from Baseball-Reference: Betts averaged 7 WAR for his first six seasons at ages 21-26 (including 2.3 in only 52 games at age 21) for a total of 42. If he averages 4.6 WAR for the next six seasons for ages 27-32 -- in what is considered a ballplayer's prime -- Mookie will accumulate 27.6 WAR and have a career total of 69.6. For comparison, here are the top three Red Sox products of the expansion era, with their WAR averages and totals for ages 27-32: Yaz avg. 7.45 x 6 = 44.7; Boggs avg. 7.55 x 6 = 45.3; Fisk avg. 4.2 x 6 = 25.2. All three earned a lot more WAR after that for many more years en route to the Hall of Fame. After age 32, Yaz played 11 more years, Boggs played 9 more, Fisk played 13 more. Baseball-Reference lists the following WAR averages for HOF outfielders: LF 65.5, CF 71.1, RF 71.5... if Mookie Betts averages 4.6 WAR for ages 27-32 he will have 69.6. He will already be worthy of a bronze plaque; a status that took his esteemed predecessors an entire decade more of playing time to achieve...

That's a great compare and contrast, Moonslav59. Injuries derailed Pedey's borderline Cooperstown chances, but he is a good comp as the second best player Boston has drafted and developed this century so far. For another stat of perspective, Mookie's b-WAR in his 6 years is 42, close to Pedroia's 51.7 in 14 years (11 as a regular)... and really close to actual Hall of Famer Jim Rice's 47.7 in 16. Here's a list of other homegrown (in my lifetime) Red Sox and their career b-WAR and years of service, with Boston years in parenthesis: Yaz 96.4 (23+), Boggs 91.4 in 18 (11), Fisk 68.5 in 24 (11), Evans 67.1 in 20 (19), Reggie Smith 64.6 in 17 (8), Lynn 50.2 in 17 (7), Burks 49.8 in 18 (7), and Nomar 44.2 in 14 (9). There's also Bagwell 79.9 in 15 (0). It's not a stretch to see where Betts is headed historically... if he continues to play at a high level for another six years through age 33 and accumulates 30 more WAR -- an average of 5 WAR per season -- he'll be in the 70+ range. Every guy on the list over 68 is a Hall of Famer.

Sanchez' catching is the big detriment. It's just not championship caliber. Defense wins titles, a fact that sometimes escapes website evaluators when they rank playoff opponents position-by-position. Sanchez always gets the edge at catcher, purely as a hitter, but ask any pitcher what matter most and they'll never mention a bat or even an arm that guns down runners; it's receiving and game-calling. I think I wrote somewhere else that there's a reason the Yankees always look better vs. the Red Sox when Romine catches.

Shaugnessy wrote today that the Yankees might be in play for JD. Just what they need, another righthanded DH with a below-average glove... If that happens, I hope the Sox don't replace him with the Parrot.

I used to think of Rickey Henderson as the ultimate mercenary, but gained more respect for him when he kept playing a few more years on Independent League teams after the bigs. He refused to hang them up, like a lot of us amateurs stumbling around in adult leagues until our bodies won't let us anymore. On a tangent, one aspect of Mookie's pending departure that may be overlooked is fans wondering why... Like, who wouldn't want to stay -- very wealthy, that is -- in a place where everyone loves you, and your team is always dedicated to trying to win championships? But maybe Betts and his family are just thinking: been there/done that, won an MVP and a title, and now it's time for a new challenge. More importantly, they're from the South, and maybe think a return to warm weather is overdue (and maybe career-prolonging... as I age, I certainly understand not wanting to play in New England where Spring is now a myth). Atlanta and St. Louis wouldn't have the same media crunch as Boston, but the money and adoration would still be rock-star sufficient...

Gm 7, 'O3: I remember standing there in my living room (couldn't sit still) when the bottom of the 8th began, saying, "He shouldn't even be out there"; after the last out in the 7th, Pedro had walked off the mound tapping his heart and pointing to the stars, like he always did when his day was done. Martinez was gallant, but it was he who made those pitches and lost that lead. Pedro also threw the 6-inning no-hitter in relief while injured to win the '99 ALDS and then outpitched Clemens in the ALCS. If we really want to talk about luck - or close calls -- how did the Yankees not score the pennant-winning run in the 13th of Gm 5 in '04 when Wakefield was bouncing knucklers past Varitek?

No one wants to lose Betts for nothing, which is basically what we'd get if he walks after 2020. He always praises the team, city and region, but has never said he wants to stay in Boston or even that he'd like to stay. This could be Mookie's strategy to prevent any notions of a home-town discount. Or, it could be a message to other suitors that they'd better pony up because the Sox are still in play (even if they're not). I think management already has a plan A, B and C ready for JD, JBJ and Betts, no matter who they label "GM". The new guy's responsibility will be to follow those plans and use his/her connections around baseball to maximize the returns of any deal, with pitching a priority. Any Betts swap needs to be a haul, with MLB-ready prospects coming back, or it will still look and feel like nothing more than the compensatory draft pick Boston would get if he signs elsewhere. Otherwise, the Sox would be better off keeping their superstar for another entire season. I just don't have any confidence at all that if they trade him that he would be willing to immediately re-sign. No player sent packing by a club ever comes back in his prime. The only example I can think of is Chapman (and now Yankee fans will always have that image of him smiling after he lost the pennant).

This makes sense to most -- rational or diehard (can we be both?) -- fans, but perhaps not so much to younger fans that idolize Mookie or even casual fans who can only identify the nickname and not name many other players. A lot of them comprise families who can only afford to attend one or two games a year at Fenway or may or may not tune in to NESN or WEEI. This part of fandom -- in a pastime of waning interest -- can't be dismissed, as it represents a potential fanbase of generations to come in a region of five states and beyond.

Agreed. The Red Sox product would take a serious hit, especially after a disappointing season followed by increased ticket prices. The only remote way a Betts trade will work -- in the offseason or at the trade deadline -- is if the PR machine can go public with a gigantic offer refused by Mookie, and somehow get him on record saying he just wants to play somewhere else. And then the Sox will also have to find a trade partner willing to overpay with major league ready prospects. Anything less will be unacceptable by fandom. The Nation will not accept a rebuild at the cost of its superstar player in his prime.

While not a fan of either team, I don't classify as an impartial observer, as I was a Red Sox fan naturally rooting for the Astros. The Yankee bats went cold, true, but Houston's were worse: Astros' failure with RISP bordering on 'historic' WWW.MLB.COM The Astros had the best offense in the Majors this year, leading in batting average (.274), on-base percentage (.352), slugging percentage (.495), lowest strikeout rate (18.2%), highest walk rate (10.1%), Weighted On-Base Average (.355) and wRC+ (125), and that's actually underselling it a bit. They weren't just the best offense Two walkoff HRs were just clutch enough to take the pennant, but the offensive difference for the winners may have just come down to fortune or timing -- having more men on base for more of their dingers. The Astros really beat NY on D and on the bases, with moments like Correa throwing out DJ, and several key plays in the finale. Judge played great in right, Didi was good, but otherwise... And the Yanks may have to admit winning a ring is unlikely with Sanchez behind the dish. At least against Boston, NY always seems better with Romine catching (this is coming from a fan who also thinks Vazquez is overrated defensively).

The Twins always lose to NY, but this year I think were exposed as one of the most suspect 100-win teams in history; either that, or they won one of the worst divisions of all-time. Minny: 52-18 .743 vs. Chi/KC/Det and the other two last place teams, Baltimore and Seattle...and then 49-46 .516 vs. the rest of their schedule. I still can't believe they started Dobnak in Gm 2 in freaking Yankee Stadium. Odorizzi had a career year, was their ace and made the All-Star team... and they were afraid to pitch him in the Bronx in a must-win game? After the two blowouts, if the Twins somehow won two games at home, they'd have to go back to NY for the finale and start... Dobnak?

I almost said I wish we had a number one pick to use on a pitcher like Strasburg or Cole, but don't think we'd enjoy the season that would get us there. The Sox highest-picked pitcher was a bust at No. 7, but it should be noted that Houston's path to power wasn't flawless, either. They had three straight Number Ones and whiffed on two of them -- hurlers who never made the majors; Correa was the other. The Stros were also bad enough to get a No. 2: Bregman (who the Sox drafted way lower a few years before), No. 5: Tucker, and No. 11: Springer.

Jose awful, man. How about: remember Luke Voit? (I know he had a hernia, but it sure didn't look like he had a postseason spot in the NY lineup, with DJ at first and the big money guys at DH...)

I'm not sure about first for JD. I'd say it's a more important position than left field, in that in involves many more chances, with almost all geared towards securing potential outs, many of which should be automatic outs that a team can't afford to risk. A good first baseman needs soft hands and nimble feet, and has to make quality relays or feeds to other bases. Infielders or catchers seem to be the best at transitioning over to first. They could try him out over there in ST -- he is a professional athlete, after all. But no team at any level from T-ball on up can keep a liability at first base.

Ha, great line, made me laugh. A month before Devers' call-up I went to watch him play a double A game in Hartford. He hit a rising line drive out of the park that probably didn't stop until it landed on a barge in the Connecticut River (small city) and wound up in some southern port. I've seen high fly homers there from future big leaguers like Vlad Jr and Biggio, but nothing scorched like Devers'. He was the one guy I didn't want to see DD deal.

He has to go, first order of business... Sonny (John Henry): "Price sold out Eck, that stronz. I don't want to see him no more. I want you to make that first thing on your list, understand?" Clemenza (new GM): "Understood."

It's almost seems lately as if someone upstairs is preventing Cashman from committing the big bucks to marquee free agents. I thought for sure the Yanks would've signed Machado or Harper, though the former would've made more sense in that they could've dealt Andujar for pitching depth. Do you think George would've opened the purse for either? Or at least make both Cole and Strasburg offers they can't refuse? I'm pretty convinced DD wasn't allowed to make any deals at the last deadline (esp. after Henry's quote, "We're not looking to add payroll"). Standing pat just isn't in DD's nature, and a surplus third base prospect like Dalbec surely could've netted someone like Hudson, the new closer for the NL champs.

Great question, and I can only surmise the answer is the usual for non-contenders in the stretch run to hunting and fishing season (or golf or sitting on the couch): to prevent the free-agent clock from ticking a year early on prospects. When Owings suddenly appeared and Cora instantly batted him leadoff, it looked like he was playing him to spite DD, like, "Really, this is what you're giving me? Then this is what you've got."

Both might be decent late-inning defensive replacements for a roster that can carry them, but neither is a starter for contenders. Bradley's better all-around comp is Pillar, who makes about half as much -- both averaged just under 3 WAR the past five years -- and his peak in on-field value and contractual value may be Kiermaier, who averaged around 4 WAR the past six years and can make up to 13 mil by 2023... all are around 30 years old but have trended down to about 2 WAR the past couple years (JBJ has a slightly higher OPS). Finding a cheaper replacement with approximate value won't be easy, unless a non-bridge team is confident they have a youngster with break-out potential ready-for-primetime...

JBJ may be the Red Sox best defensive centerfielder ever or at least in a hundred years. Before Bradley, Fred Lynn was the best I ever saw. Both were more spectacular and could throw much better than Ellsbury, Crisp, Damon, etc. I never saw Jimmy Piersall play, but HOFer Tris Speaker averaged 15 errors per in his Boston seasons. Maybe if the MLB continues to use the dejuiced ball from this postseason, then more batters will lower their launch angles, and guys like Bradley can improve their all-around game by spraying line drives all over the field. JBJ is always better when he goes oppo... (such an approach usually ignites his hot streaks, according to Remy and Eck).