5GoldGlovesOF,75

Bloom had Cron in Tampa in 2018 -- he hit 30 homers, then right after the season was allowed to be taken off waivers by the Twins. I found that curious to say the least... if it was a salary dump, Minnesota more than doubled his pay this past year. Not every baseball move makes sense to fans, though we hope they're all part of a plan. Corey Dickerson was another; All-Star in Tampa in '17, traded that winter for Daniel Hudson, who was then released at the end of Spring Training. Orlando Cabrera, acquired at the deadline in '04, was a superior upgrade for Nomar at shortstop, a solid hitter and cheerleader/handshaker in the dugout. I loved it after Gm 7 in NY when he held up four fingers on one hand and an empty fist on the other to the crowd. What compelled the Sox to immediately replace OC with Renteria, a guy who couldn't hack it in Boston? No sportswriter or talk show personality has ever sufficiently explained the move. I suspect some know the truth and can't/won't divulge. Something was up, because Cabrera then played for seven different teams for the last seven years of his career. But including the Sox, five of them went to the playoffs with him as a regular. Guy was a winner.

Or with next year's rules, maybe Bloom stockpiles 8 mid-level starters to go only 3 or 4 three innings apiece, with two each working every four days in a consistent rotation, and a four-man pen, with two guys splitting the 8th and 9th every other day. Starters would target one time through the order, go all out and never have to pace themselves, with close to the usual days of rest in between. Sooner or later, though, the MLB has to modify the official scoring of how a starter is eligible to be credited with a victory (like Moon points out, the only staffs left in the bigs where starters go five anymore are in the World Series).

"Relief Pitching will be exactly like 2019. cheap, cheap, and cheap. i expect C-BOOM to pull the trigger on a number of dirt cheap, lightning in a bottle, bounceback type signings for RPing." I totally agree. As Moon said, almost all the big name relievers on the last market sucked. Last offseason reporters were all touting the Yankees' as the architects of the greatest bullpen in history, but I couldn't see it. They basically replaced Robertson with Ottavino. Chapman, Britton, Kahnle, Green -- all had better campaigns before this year. In the past, the all-time best bullpens were anchored by the all-time best closers: Rivera, with lefty-righty set-up men like Stanton and Jeff Nelson... or Eckerlsy, with Honeycutt and Gene Nelson. Eck had one year with more saves than base-runners allowed; that'll get it done. Lately, very few arms don't wear out by season's end, necessitating bullpen depth where quantity supersedes quality. Maybe the trend changes with the new three-batter minimum.

Maybe baseball fans -- and even Red Sox fans, insulated in the Nation -- don't really fully realize the rare opportunity ahead of Betts. Based on Mookie's first six years of production, on the eve of his prime, we may just witness a free agent who is worth and actually earns one of the top contracts in baseball. His next half dozen seasons may turn out comparable to the best signings in history; maybe not Bonds or Maddux, but think Manny Ramirez, who accumulated 29.6 b-WAR in his first six Boston years at ages 29-34. Most would acknowledge Manny as the Sox' all-time big-money free agent signing, and in those first six years he averaged 4.9 WAR, which resulted in All-Star selections and AL MVP votes every season. Does anyone here think it's unreasonable to expect Mookie Betts -- who averaged 7 WAR for six years from ages 21-26 -- to earn at least 4.9 WAR for the next six? The problem as I see it isn't whether Mookie will be worth the investment. For those worried about his body size, I previously listed recent Hall of Famers considered short of stature and their WAR through their prime years; Mookie is on target for at least comparable Hall of Fame production. One player that didn't sustain stardom through his prime -- and someone with whom Betts was compared early on -- is Andrew McCutcheon. Injuries were surely a factor, but we don't if his training and lifestyle habits were similar to Mookie's. Here's the issue: Sox management has continually alluded to the uncertainty of whether Betts wants to stay in Boston. Henry yesterday said one of the factors is "where Mookie wants to play — for the long term." Not for how much... Such words seem consistent with Kennedy's from months past: "If Mookie wants to play here, we will pay him." Unless the front office is posturing in negotiation-mode (and is prepared for their best offer to fall short of someone else's max bid) then this case may really be beyond their control. That's where Bloom's connections at all levels of the industry will make the best of the situation...

If the MLB still uses the superball, then 30-homer guys won't be hard to find at various prices and ages. Low budget teams like the Rays -- or frugal-minded Bloom clubs -- might rather rotate several players at DH, where cumulative production may be part of a plan. Boras' case will undoubtedly be that JD is arguably the best in baseball at his position. Who's better? Cruz... not the parrot or Kris Davis... Vogelbach made the All-Star team and walks a lot, but hit a hundred points lower. Martinez can't keep himself from flailing at sliders down and away, but he still has a solid approach, great work habits and impacts the batting order in positive ways on and off the field, talking hitting and helping teammates improve. JD is making a hundred million dollars in a city with devoted fan attendance and a management committed to competing, but if he wants to work somewhere with warmer weather for a few mil more, then we'll thank him for his service and -- like many others before him -- see him after retirement when he comes back for events and reunions in the best place he ever played...

Those are reasonable incremental evaluations (based on estimates of contributions on the field, I assume, with peaks at the front and decline at the end of the contract). Let's say Betts' production is worth top of the pay-scale the next four years, with a few top-fives in WAR and MVP voting; if any of those campaigns result in another world title, I wonder how much additional off-field value can be factored in as the face -- and back (sales of #50 uniforms and t-shirts) -- of the franchise?

This post isn't exactly written to defend Dombrowski, but something I've been thinking about a long time: the unpredictable performances of acquired established relievers. Most of us didn't mind letting Kimbrel and Kelly walk, but were concerned DD didn't replace them with "names". Ottavino could have been had and kept out of pinstripes...he had a solid regular season but a bad post, and now he gets to face New York fans and press for two more years. DD was notorious for neglecting the pen in Detroit ("DavidOrtizDavidOrtiz") but upon reflection, it's not like he didn't try here. Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg were total busts but both had really good seasons for other clubs the year before he traded for them; there was actually an article written on one site using analytics that cited Thornburg as a sleeper power arm that GMs should target. Addison Reed was ok for half a season. Kimbrel was great but then a great risk, and let go just in time. Kelly was a converted MLB starter. But such fluctuations have been a pattern for at least a decade, as the pitiful history of relief recruits began before Dombro, with three crap trades for All-Star closers who were worthless in Boston: Andrew Bailey, Mark Melancon and Joel Hanrahan. If there's a lesson in such deals whose results are so mercurial, maybe it's don't swap position players for bullpen arms that tend to burn out quickly under modern usage (for example, keep the likes of Reddick, Lowrie, Travis Shaw, Dubon, etc). I am intrigued to see how Bloom alters the pitching staff. The best trade deadline pick-up this summer was the Rays getting Nick Anderson from Miami. Tampa gave up Ryne Stanek, which I thought odd since he was their number one opener; at best, the deal seemed like a wash. But maybe it makes more sense to target a young arm to fill a specific need by offering up another young arm (which won't weaken position player depth). The Rays also pulled this off with Boston in '18, giving up Eovaldi for Beeks. Stay tuned...

This is a great point: the Unsolved Mystery of 2019, way more because of its short- and long-term effects than rewarding Pearce or Eovaldi (who was the second most sought-after starter behind Corbin). Fans, media and officials from other clubs have been skeptical since the Sale signing. No doubt management was encouraged if not infatuated with his dominance in the final frame of the 2018 season. It is hard to believe, however, that an entire front office was equal parts hopeful that it was legit and fearful that if they didn't extend it would cost treasure chests more if they waited. It's obviously their job to know way more about baseball than any of us... there had to be debate about this contract. After the World Series, considering Sale's late-season burn-outs at the end of '17 and '18, I actually figured that his future may be as a closer. After all, Kimbrel was a heart-attack in the postseason and Cora had already replaced him with Sale in Game 7. Other star starters had converted in the past, like Eckersly and Smoltz, and for the argument that big money is too much for relievers, didn't the whole modern game revolve around bullpens? Maybe, hopefully, the new three-batter minimum changes things...

Good points. Miscommunication defines humanity, especially in this age of email and texts devoid of eye contact, facial expression and intonation (except for uppercase letters or generic acronyms and emojis). But those same devices make it impossible not to save or record any business plan to refer back to; gone are the days when owners can shake on a trade of Ted Williams for Joe DiMaggio and then call it off the next morning when they sober up. No matter what, in pro sports, at least, GMs and managers understand they're "hired to be fired", and than an owner's nod ultimately implies, "This better work or else..."

Good point. I think some posters or lurkers here are understandably concerned Henry may eventually lose his own interest (no pun intended). His words were inconsistent and contradictory last season: in early spring, he talked about how important it was to lock up Sale, citing his leadership (barking in the dugout during the WS), regretting the Lester negotiations, etc... then by mid-summer Henry didn't want to add payroll, most likely nixed any deadline deals, and by fall was saying he had disagreed with DD's plans since right after the WS celebration. I am intrigued to see Bloom's plans for the new pitching rule of 2020: the three-batter minimun. Finding or developing pitchers with more longevity would seem to be a priority, whether it's adding a lot of guys with starting experience or stretching out young relievers. Bloom may be leaving Tampa just in time, because one thing's for sure: Cash won't be allowed to go lefty-righty every nine innings anymore.

"It seems a shame to waste this talent." Right on. We have to trust that management understands this and even has formulas for windows for how long to go for it and the potential profits of more titles vs. investments, etc. It's also why astute Yankee fans are keeping their fingers crossed that a guy like Betts is traded. As a Sox fan, I would love it if New York dealt Judge for a haul of prospects that combined have a 99% chance of never replacing his value... because we all know that Judge is the one Yankee most likely to produce an MVP season and lead his club to a title.

Bloom's strengths, as pointed out by others here, include locating, acquiring and stockpiling young affordable arms. As for the Big Three, maybe Sale and Price have peaked, with injuries and age taking their toll. But no matter how much Yankee fans hope they're done, a bounce-back from at least one wouldn't be shocking. We're talking about the AL's top two winners from 2012-18: Price 102, Sale 99; the latter also had the lowest ERA 2.91 and led in Ks. The number one project for new coaches has to be Eovaldi, who returned from surgery throwing 100 with a 95 cutter and still got knocked around. I'd argue he was the Sox' most consistent and even most valuable player for the entire postseason in '18. Price threw three great games in a row -- his best in a Boston uniform -- so it's easy to forget he got crushed by NY and had a bad first start vs Houston. Eovaldi was great in any role, but his game in New York was the turning point. Two days after Judge played Sinatra in Fenway, Nate walked into Yankee Stadium in a tied series, with rabid fans hanging and banging over the walls, and was lights out. He has potential Cy Young stuff, and if the right teachers can help him, may turn out to be the best signing of any Sox starter. Remember, the runners-up in the bidding for Eovaldi were the Astros... and they seem to know their pitchers.

I'd say it's worth it. No matter how the offseason goes with position player contracts, Bloom's main focus has to be pitching; a specialty of his with the Rays. The Red Sox need to change the culture of a pitching staff that nibbles, goes to full counts on every batter, and leads the league in bases on balls (like they did this year). They need more guys like Urquidy, the Astros' World Series hero, hurlers who work fast and throw strikes. It just makes for a better product -- on the field, keeping the defense on its toes -- and off the field, keeping fans awake, alert and ultimately tuned in.

I'm sworn to secrecy. As for the friends of ours in the offices of Fenway... soon, it will be time to settle all family business.

Don: Bloom Consigliere: O'Halloran Mouthpiece (lawyer): Kennedy Capos: Romero, Scott, Ferreira Chaffeur/Bodyguard: Cora Soldiers: 40-man strong

Here is an interesting article Bloom wrote while still in college that was posted on another chat site: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/2475/evaluating-a-rod-is-he-worth-the-money-in-todays-market/ It's about the top-paid player in 2003 -- ARod -- and discusses his gargantuan contract in terms of value and production. Bloom analyzes and compares other star players and concludes that ARod's consistency is actually a worthy investment that can't be replaced. Hopefully, Bloom still uses such metrics when making a decision on the Mookster...

i'm not worried about Benintendi making the adjustments to be a good player going forward. But his bat slowed down last year. It seemed like he was always fouling back the first pitch and in more 0-2 holes than anyone; he got a lot of called strikes just off the outside corner, no matter who the ump was... it made me wonder if he bitched too loudly at some blue and all the umps were backing up their bro. When he first came up he had a quicker pull swing but pitchers have adjusted by throwing more crap away and maybe he was looking oppo too much. More Ks and less BBs mean it's time to change back. The easiest way to snap a slump used to be to just try to hit it back up the middle, but Benny got burned a lot by shifts doing that, so it was a very frustrating year.

I appreciate the breakdown of the comps but in no way are they predictive of a breakdown in Betts. Puckett's eyes would be bad luck for a player of any height. Raines may have lost an edge getting hooked on recreational drugs. People may have been smaller in Morgan's century, but he was known as Little Joe and also hands-down the best MLBer for an entire decade. To go back even further, Willie Mays -- listed as 5'10, 170 -- posted 58.5 WAR from age 33 through the end of his career. I'm not saying Betts is another Mays, but some professional writers have made those 5-tool, boyish-enthusiasm comps; when I first saw Mookie's swing, with his inhumanly quick wrists, I actually thought Aaron... and The Hammer was another player without huge muscles who starred a long, long time. Mays and Aaron were small compared to contemporaries like Frank Robinson, McCovey, Stargell, etc. Why can't Betts be another Mays or Aaron, not in pure slugging, but longevity? Granted, Trout is built like a linebacker and you'd think he'd be more durable, but he's been hurt the past two years, as have Stanton and Judge. Maybe body types aren't as important in projections as a player's make-up and pedigree. Maybe wiry sinew is more supple than bulk. Before he was a star, the Sox held a spring training athletic competition where they split one side of the roster vs. another -- I remember reading all these guys with rings (Papi, Pedey, etc.) wanted to be on Betts' team, because he was such a better all-around athlete. I think every team accepts the fact that when they sign someone long term that they're actually paying for the first two-thirds of a contract (hopefully). Boston can't possibly replace Betts, and the only thing they know for sure is that they have him now. Generational talent doesn't grow on a farm (team, ha), and the Sox got lucky with a 5th round pick. If they trade him, someone else will get lucky.

Thread speculation here and elsewhere of Bloom getting hired as maybe the guy assigned to trade Betts is stressful. To help both the Red Sox and Boston fans ease their concerns about the aging effects of "undersized" and "speed" players, here are total b-WARs and yearly averages for the prime 27-32 ages of recent Hall of Famers listed under 5 foot, 10 inches in height: Tim Raines 26.4, 4.4; Pudge Rodriguez 28.3, 4.7; Kirby Puckett 31.1, 5.2; Joe Morgan 53.4, 8.9. Also included is Dustin Pedroia 31.7, 5.3; Irod and Pedey weren't feared base-stealers (though Pedroia actually swiped more bags than Puckett), but both made their livings with quick feet. There is absolutely no reason to expect Mookie Betts' overall value not to average between 4.5 and 5 WAR for the next six seasons, which would give him a career total commensurate with the average outfielder enshrined in Cooperstown. Open the vaults and pay this future Hall of Famer through his prime!

More Mookie (I've revised the numbers and corrected some of my math) from Baseball-Reference: Betts averaged 7 WAR for his first six seasons at ages 21-26 (including 2.3 in only 52 games at age 21) for a total of 42. If he averages 4.6 WAR for the next six seasons for ages 27-32 -- in what is considered a ballplayer's prime -- Mookie will accumulate 27.6 WAR and have a career total of 69.6. For comparison, here are the top three Red Sox products of the expansion era, with their WAR averages and totals for ages 27-32: Yaz avg. 7.45 x 6 = 44.7; Boggs avg. 7.55 x 6 = 45.3; Fisk avg. 4.2 x 6 = 25.2. All three earned a lot more WAR after that for many more years en route to the Hall of Fame. After age 32, Yaz played 11 more years, Boggs played 9 more, Fisk played 13 more. Baseball-Reference lists the following WAR averages for HOF outfielders: LF 65.5, CF 71.1, RF 71.5... if Mookie Betts averages 4.6 WAR for ages 27-32 he will have 69.6. He will already be worthy of a bronze plaque; a status that took his esteemed predecessors an entire decade more of playing time to achieve...

That's a great compare and contrast, Moonslav59. Injuries derailed Pedey's borderline Cooperstown chances, but he is a good comp as the second best player Boston has drafted and developed this century so far. For another stat of perspective, Mookie's b-WAR in his 6 years is 42, close to Pedroia's 51.7 in 14 years (11 as a regular)... and really close to actual Hall of Famer Jim Rice's 47.7 in 16. Here's a list of other homegrown (in my lifetime) Red Sox and their career b-WAR and years of service, with Boston years in parenthesis: Yaz 96.4 (23+), Boggs 91.4 in 18 (11), Fisk 68.5 in 24 (11), Evans 67.1 in 20 (19), Reggie Smith 64.6 in 17 (8), Lynn 50.2 in 17 (7), Burks 49.8 in 18 (7), and Nomar 44.2 in 14 (9). There's also Bagwell 79.9 in 15 (0). It's not a stretch to see where Betts is headed historically... if he continues to play at a high level for another six years through age 33 and accumulates 30 more WAR -- an average of 5 WAR per season -- he'll be in the 70+ range. Every guy on the list over 68 is a Hall of Famer.

Sanchez' catching is the big detriment. It's just not championship caliber. Defense wins titles, a fact that sometimes escapes website evaluators when they rank playoff opponents position-by-position. Sanchez always gets the edge at catcher, purely as a hitter, but ask any pitcher what matter most and they'll never mention a bat or even an arm that guns down runners; it's receiving and game-calling. I think I wrote somewhere else that there's a reason the Yankees always look better vs. the Red Sox when Romine catches.

Shaugnessy wrote today that the Yankees might be in play for JD. Just what they need, another righthanded DH with a below-average glove... If that happens, I hope the Sox don't replace him with the Parrot.

I used to think of Rickey Henderson as the ultimate mercenary, but gained more respect for him when he kept playing a few more years on Independent League teams after the bigs. He refused to hang them up, like a lot of us amateurs stumbling around in adult leagues until our bodies won't let us anymore. On a tangent, one aspect of Mookie's pending departure that may be overlooked is fans wondering why... Like, who wouldn't want to stay -- very wealthy, that is -- in a place where everyone loves you, and your team is always dedicated to trying to win championships? But maybe Betts and his family are just thinking: been there/done that, won an MVP and a title, and now it's time for a new challenge. More importantly, they're from the South, and maybe think a return to warm weather is overdue (and maybe career-prolonging... as I age, I certainly understand not wanting to play in New England where Spring is now a myth). Atlanta and St. Louis wouldn't have the same media crunch as Boston, but the money and adoration would still be rock-star sufficient...

Gm 7, 'O3: I remember standing there in my living room (couldn't sit still) when the bottom of the 8th began, saying, "He shouldn't even be out there"; after the last out in the 7th, Pedro had walked off the mound tapping his heart and pointing to the stars, like he always did when his day was done. Martinez was gallant, but it was he who made those pitches and lost that lead. Pedro also threw the 6-inning no-hitter in relief while injured to win the '99 ALDS and then outpitched Clemens in the ALCS. If we really want to talk about luck - or close calls -- how did the Yankees not score the pennant-winning run in the 13th of Gm 5 in '04 when Wakefield was bouncing knucklers past Varitek?