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Hugh2

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Everything posted by Hugh2

  1. Hugh2
    There has, I do not remember where I've read it. I've seen it at least in one place maybe more. Fangraphs, BA, Baseball Prospectus, I'll have to look it up, it would be nice to post. I hope I can remember to do so next week. It's my birthday today and I just don't have the ambition to look that deeply into it now. I'll probably spend 5 minutes on google after this seeing what I can find but after that it's work work work and then the wife is taking me and the family to Orlando for a week. But if someone else doesn't have it I'll try to look it up at some point. Remember, there's always an exception to the rule. I'm sure there's plenty of athletic 6'5" guys who fall off a cliff after 30 and little guys who play into their late 30's. Heck if Altuve can put together a few more good seasons he will have defied those odds.
  2. Hugh2
    I remember a long time ago when both Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts were very young players (call it 2014) someone was asked who is the better player between Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. I forgot who the scout was and what the platform was, it might have been baseball America or pipeline. But his opinion at the time was that some scouts viewed Betts as the better player now, but saw Bogaerts as the better career. At 5-9, 180 Betts isn't a good bet to be performing in the second 1/2 of his contract. Smaller players tend to hit a cliff sooner and decline faster. I loved Mookie, and would have stood by keeping him here, but I understand the decision. Recently, I've been trying to face another reality about the Mookie trade that I think a lot of Boston fans don't want to consider. Mookie didn't want to resign here, he wanted to go to free agency and get paid (like 99% of other players) and the Sox knew it, so they got something for him.
  3. Hugh2
    Maybe him and Sale can piggyback. Combined they can be a shutdown ace going deeper than they otherwise could alone. Half joking.
  4. Hugh2
    I really have no clue what I’m talking about here and this is 100% conjecture but I’m starting to wonder if he’s pitched SOOO well that they’ve delayed stretching him out so they don’t have to shut him down down the stretch.
  5. Hugh2
    To reiterate my point with less words, Whitlock is not really a pen arm and never has been. They’re nursing him at the MLB level so they can keep him.
  6. Hugh2
    This isn’t like the time when they tried converting Bard into a starter, he had subpar control and no third pitch and it ruined him. Whitlock has always been a starter and is only being used in this role because the Sox have to. They will begin to stretch him out next spring. His stuff is legit, and he’s 1000x more valuable as a starter. His stuff has taken a noticeable tick up post surgery. The fastball is better, and his change up improved a whole grade. He now has 3 plus pitches, and has started to improve his slider as well. I can’t wait to see him throw 7 shut out inning vs the Yankees in 2022. 😜
  7. Hugh2
    Groomed trade value absolutely skyrockets if he can just stay healthy for a year. If he does that, we might even want to keep him.
  8. Hugh2
    I always thought Houck was Barnes 2.0. A guy who might start if he can add a pitch to his arsenal and harness his command. Barnes failed as a starter, I’m very happy he’s owning the closer role. I’m not saying the Sox should give up on Tanner just yet as a starter. But he has the stuff to be a late inning reliever too.
  9. Hugh2
    If you can pitch in the majors there’s a clear path to the majors no matter what team you’re on. Who knows why he wants to go to Boston. He might just want to go to a great competitive organization that can pay him one day. Boston is the best organization in the top of the draft. If your New York Yankees sucked ass like Boston did I could see him trying to go to NY too.
  10. Hugh2
    Who knows, he could just be trying to get more money from a team in front of Boston if they draft him. Hypothetically Boston could offer as much as Pitt but it would blow up our whole draft.
  11. Hugh2
    I think it proves that no one is sure thing.
  12. Hugh2
    Exactly. If you're the team drafting Leiter you show him what happened to Aiken, he lost 2.5 million and fell 17 spots. Appel shot up 7 spots and made millions more, if you're Leiter and his agent that's your example.
  13. Hugh2
    Heck Pitt can go as low as 6.4 million with the first pick. They could easily be shopping the first pick to see who is willing to take 6.4 million, which is below the Sox slot value of 6.6 million. Again, hypothetically you can sign a guy for the above slot too.
  14. Hugh2
    His Leverage is he's a sophomore, he can go back to college and go into the draft two more times. If he falls to 2 or 3 he can say he was good enough to go 1-1 and that's the money he wants. Guys often sign for below, and above their bonus slot. The Pirates slot at #1 is 8.4 million, they can easily take someone willing to cut a deal and sign someone for 7 million if they wanted. Pittsburgh could be trying to low ball Leiter too. Now the difference isn't that much. There is precedent for this. Brady Aiken was drafted 1-1 overall in 2014 and did not sign because he wanted more money. He could easily be bluffing and asking for more money, this is all negotiating. But I agree, It's risky, and a team could easily call his bluff. But if the Sox draft him, he's not starting in 2022, I'd put my money on late 2023.
  15. Hugh2
    Duran might be the future outfield over Wilson, but there's plenty of reason to believe that right now...Wilson might be the better option. Maybe not in August, or next spring, but right now he might get the call first.
  16. Hugh2
    If Mayer, Leiter, and Davis are gone at 4 and Lawlar is on the board you have to think House will be in play too. I know Watson has come on lately and some mock drafts have put him as high as #2 but I haven't heard anyone connecting him to the Red Sox. I'd like to say Rocker, who was heavily connected to the Sox earlier but there has not been any real talk about him going to Boston lately, it could just be other names attached to the Sox because they're doing their due diligence but I think he's still a possibility at #4. I'm very hot and cold on Rocker, one moment I love him and the next I want the Sox to pass. I won't be upset if he's the pick. Leiter falling to the Sox, I wonder how much of that is him supposedly pricing himself out and down to Boston? there's a scenario where he falls there no matter what, but I can easily see a team calling Jacks Leiters bluff and drafting him at #1-3. That's a real possibility.
  17. Hugh2
    Agreed 100%
  18. Hugh2
    All the data showing a “drop” in Sox pitchers spin rates actually in some circumstances are showing an increase in other pitches. Where we’ve seen drops they’ve been around 1% or less. That’s insignificant.
  19. Hugh2
    Yeah well I’ll believe my own eyes over Chad Jennings. The data doesn’t seem to support the narrative. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/nick-pivetta-601713?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
  20. Hugh2
    A lot of what happens 2-4 can change depending on what Pitt does at #1. And this draft is unique in that there’s not a clear cut #1 consensus pick at the top.
  21. Hugh2
    I do think Davis is a candidate for #1 but I don’t think he’s the clear cut best player in the draft. Teams don’t draft for need at the top like that. Also remember both Texas and Pitts have been heavily linked to both Mayer/Lawlar. But in the spirit of conversation if Davis,Leiter, and Mayer are off the board I’d be happy with House or Lawlar.
  22. Hugh2
    I can post a link later, but you can look up pitcher spin rates. It does not look like the drop-off in performance was related to a drop in spin rate as there has not been a drop in the spin rate for Boston pitchers. All-day on WEEI they're saying this is bad news because it means they really suck. I see it as the opposite, that means everything they did before was honest too (it would seem). This gives me confidence that they're just in a bad stretch right now and I expect them to improve. The pitching may have been overperforming up until recently, but they're also not this bad.
  23. Hugh2
    I don't think the actual goal is to save money. But rather increase the amount of money they can spend on other picks. You can go 5% over your bonus pool and only have to pay a tax on that 5% overage, but if you go any higher then you start to lose 1st round picks. If a team can save 2 million at the top and throw split the money up in later rounds they can grab talent that fell there because of money issues and get a higher talent than that pick commands. Personally, I don't think the Sox are going to save money, maybe a few hundred thousand but they're not looking to cut a deal outside the consensus top 6-8.
  24. Hugh2
    KG: Word is Leiter is trying to price himself down to Boston and wants to land there. Word is that Boston would love that as well. Thus, a match made in heaven. EL: Yup.
  25. Hugh2
    I probably have a different definition of "bust" than most. I'd consider Colon more of an underwhelming pick.
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