Fan_since_Boggs

The thing about Brentz: I don't really like his bat against right handed pitching. I see him as a platoon guy. I would need to think about Travis and Barfield. Obviously, Travis is already on the 40 man. If Hanley goes on the DL, I would probably go with the defensive upgrade (Lin or Marrero).

Great piece. His transition to AA has been seamless and that is a tough jump for many players. He has turned himself into an exciting prospect not far from the major leagues.

Speaking of time off: Hanley Ramirez, Red Sox first baseman, exited Friday's walk-off win over White Sox with oblique soreness http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/08/hanley_ramirez_red_sox_first_b.html As I argue in another thread, I think Dombrowski made a mistake in not trading for L.Duda. But that shipped has sailed. If the Red Sox put Hanley on the DL, they would have a few options. (1) Call up Brentz. (2) Call up Lin or Marrero, start Lin or Marrero at SS and give Bogaerts some time off in the DH spot. This would improve the Red Sox defense. Alternatively, the Red Sox could alternate Lin or Marrero at 3b, SS, 2b, and, in turn, rotate Devers, Bogaerts, and Nunez in the DH spot. Again, the defense gets better with Lin or Marrero in there.

I read this somewhere and it made me want to puke: As much as I hate to say it, unless Hanley spends significant time on the DL, it looks like the Red Sox will have to pay him in 2019. Just another dreadful contract decision by Ben Cherrington. But Dombrowski deserves blame too if he lets the option vest. I think Dombrowski blew an opportunity to cheaply acquire L.Duda, a guy who could take at bats away from Hanley this year and keep that option from vesting. Hanley's OPS+ is once again hovering around the 100 mark, which is totally unacceptable. In the meantime, L.Duda, who was having a strong season with the Mets (127 OPS+) is doing really well with the Rays. I suppose the Red Sox could look for a left handed bat (DH type) in the offseason and platoon that player with Hanley. That would keep the option from vesting.

I highly doubt 2020 will be a rebuilding year because the Red Sox's will still have excellent position players, e.g., Devers, Chavis, Bradley, Betts, Benintendi. True, the starting staff is very much a question mark. But I suspect the Red Sox will pull off some kind of combination of: (1) signing a top free agent starter (while I have the Red Sox signing Hosmer, I don't have them investing resources in the likes of B.Harper or M.Machado or any other significant free agent). (2) There is a good chance the Red Sox will develop a very good starter (Groome, hopefully) along with some middle of the rotation types. When you combine (1) and (2), the Red Sox will have sufficient starting pitching to compete for a championship in 2020. Jackie Bradley will be thirty years old in 2020, one of the older starting position players on the projected 2020 Red Sox roster. He will be a free agent after 2020. I wonder if the Red Sox already have his 2021 replacement in Cole Brannen. I have no idea who replaces Bogaerts at SS in 2020, but since Bogaerts isn't all that great anyway (a below average glove, in particular), I don't see his loss as a major detriment for 2020 team.

Clint Frazier is stumbling. His batting average is down to .243. He has 4 walks and 30 strikeouts in 103 at bats. This is all more in line with his minor league numbers. Time to send him down before the Yankees ruin whatever confidence he has left. I would have traded Frazier, perhaps in a deal for J.Quintana. I think the Yankees will regret acquiring Gray over Quintana. With that said, the Yankees don't beat an offer of Eloy Jimenez without including Torres.

There is a common belief among many fans that the Red Sox have a 3 year window (beginning in 2017) to win a championship. After the three year window is up (in 2020), the Red Sox will need to rebuild. However, I don’t agree with this assessment. Let’s take a look at the Red Sox in 2020. One important piece of info: I believe the Red Sox are going to sign Hosmer for 1b after the 2017 season. I will operate on that assumption (I have taken a conservative approach in saying that Hosmer will be the only major free agent acquisition for the Red Sox over the next three years). Also, I’m not going to address the bullpen due to the extreme amount of volatility among relievers. It is virtually impossible to predict the Red Sox bullpen in 2020. 2020 Red Sox – position players: 1b: Hosmer (30 years old) 2b: Pedroia (36 years old) SS: ??? 3b: Devers (3 years from now he will still be a young guy!) C: Vazquez (still under 30) LF: Benintendi (26 years old) CF: Bradley (final year of arbitration) RF: Betts (final year of arbitration – will still be under 30 years old) DH: Chavis (he will be around 25 years old) NOTES: Bogaerts is a free agent after the 2019 season. I wouldn’t resign him--his defense at SS isn't good enough. Top international prospect Daniel Flores © will turn 20 in 2020 and will likely be a year or two away from replacing Vazquez. This doesn’t seem like a rebuilding team to me. At this point, Hosmer and Betts should still be really good. Benintendi, Chavis, and Devers will hopefully be stars. The Red Sox will need solid depth behind the 36 year old Pedroia, but maybe he can age gracefully, kind of like Ben Zobrist. 2020 Red Sox Starting Staff: David Price (34 years old, I doubt he opts out) E.Rodriguez (27 years old—arbitration year) ??? ??? ??? NOTES: C.Sale is a free agent after 2019. R.Porcello is a free agent after 2019. While the Red Sox have stability with their position players for many years to come, their 2020 rotation is very much an unknown. But guess what? Dombrowski knows this too and that is why the Red Sox have been so aggressive in drafting starting pitching: Jay Groome, Tanner Houck, Alex Scherff. B.Mata could be another piece to the puzzle. These guys will be ready around 2020, just when the Red Sox need them. I would expect Dombrowski to aggressively pursue starting pitching in the 2018 draft as well. If the Red Sox organization can produce starting pitching, something they have struggled to do in recent years, there is no reason to rebuild in 2020. Instead, the Red Sox will go full speed ahead after another championship. The drafting and developing of starting pitching will be crucial to the process of sustaining success when the three year window is up.

Eric Van on Brentz as the Red Sox's 4th outfielder next year (and the need to place him on the 40 man roster this year): I have Brentz AND Castillo making the Red Sox 25 man roster next year, but the Red Sox don't need two backup outfielders. The Red Sox don't seem interested in increasing their versatility, i.e., give Brentz some work at 1b and Castillo some work at 3b. Brentz will cost league minimum and so is a bargain next year for the Red Sox. As a CF, Castillo has played well enough to earn a major league role. I'm starting to like the idea of trading Castillo in the offseason with the Red Sox subsidizing a portion of his contract. There are several teams in MLB that have a black hole in CF and could use someone like Castillo. From 2018 to 2020, the Red Sox owe Castillo 35.5 million. If the Red Sox subsidize, say, half that amount, can they find a team that would be willing to pay Castillo 17 million over 3 years (in other words, 5-6 million per year for 3 years--that doesn't seem like an impossible scenario)?

He has done a great job cutting down on his K's.

Groome -- 6 ip, 1 hit, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 k's. NICE! Brentz with another HR. This guy should be in Boston starting in LF against lefties.

I would rather have Groome, Mata, and Chavis than Fowler, Mateo, and Kaprielian. But Dombrowski was never going to offer that for Gray.

Interesting. I suppose passing on Hosmer and giving the 1b job to Chavis would save the organization millions of dollars. I prefer the strategy of signing Hosmer and using Chavis as Ramirez's replacement in 2019. I'm not sure about Travis' future. I don't see him hitting enough to ever be the starting 1b for the Red Sox, but he probably has a future in MLB in some capacity, perhaps as a part-time player.

Strong games for Chavis (3 for 4 with HR) and first round pick Houck (3 IP, 0 BB, 4 K, 0 Hits, 0 ER). Chavis is really making some noise. He is only 21 years old and has an OPS above 900 in AA. I'm glad the Red Sox didn't move him at the trade deadline.

Small sample size but Devers has looked good in comparison to Moncada, who is hitting .105 and striking out too much. Moreover, Devers is 1 or 2 years younger than Moncada. I remember news came out (Gammons, I think) when Moncada was still in the Red Sox system that some people within the Red Sox organization believed Devers was the better prospect.

A weird and interesting trade for both teams. The A's got back a lot of talent, but two of the prospects are injured. A high risk, high reward trade for the A's. But there are injury and durability concerns with S.Gray too and so including two injured prospects seems apropos in many ways. Mateo is a guy I left for dead but he has revived his career in double A, supposedly made a change to his leg kick. He has the ability to be an impact player at the major league level. A better trade for Beane than the J.Donaldson disaster.

You're right. I don't know where that last sentence came from--call it a brain fart. But my other point stands: Votto will make 100 million from ages 36 to 39. Disaster. The Red Sox can sign Hosmer without paying 100 million for his worst seasons.

In 2 out of the last 3 years, Hosmer has had an OPS+ over 120. I agree that Votto has had a tremendous career, and I like Votto very much, but we are comparing a player who will be 28 at the start of the 2018 season (Hosmer) to a player who will be 34 at the start of the 2018 season (Votto). Moreover, the Red Sox can probably sign Hosmer without paying him 25 million each year for his age 36, 37, 38, and 39 seasons. The Votto contract is absurd--he is due 100 million from age 36 to 39. Also, over the last 4 years, Votto has had only one year with a WAR above 4.3. His days of 6+ WARs are over.

I'm starting to think this too. And if B.Beane is going to trade S.Gray at a lower than normal price, why not get involved in the bidding? See if you can build a package around Groome. Gray is signed for two more seasons and so he fits perfectly into the Red Sox window. And, as we know, you can never have enough starting pitching and Price might be headed for TJ surgery as early as next season.

I've heard Hosmer is a leader. He bats left-handed. Hosmer is a perfect fit in so many ways. If they sign Hosmer, the Red Sox wouldn't have much more to do beyond that. Perhaps find a new manager.... 1b Hosmer 2b Pedroia SS Bogaerts 3b Devers C Vazquez LF Benintendi CF Bradley RF Betts DH Hanley Bench: Brentz Castillo Swihart Marrero (out of options, helps recruit E.Hosmer) SP Sale Price Porcello Pomeranz Rodriguez Johnson (out of options) Wright BP Kimbrel Barnes Kelly Smith Hembree Workman Scott nontender candidates: Thornburg Holt Ross AAA depth (on 40 man roster) M.Hernandez (one option remaining) H.Velaquez H.Owens (one option remaining) T.Lin B.Taylor A.Maddox K.Martin J.Beeks J.Callahan The Red Sox could use a LH bench bat, a guy who will get some playing time at DH to keep Hanley's dreadful option from vesting. Alternatively, the Red Sox could use Hanley's DH spot to occasionally rest some guys, and get Castillo & Marrero some playing time in the field, putting the regular starter at the DH spot.

Which hitter do you have in mind?

Why would the Red Sox even go near J.Votto when they can sign 27 year old (turns 28 in Oct) E.Hosmer in the offseason?

It is my understanding that Bruce is really lousy at 1b. He has played a total of 10 games at the position throughout his career. The Mets took a look at him at 1b this year and he was bad. With that said, they could DH Bruce and play Hanley at 1b but I doubt the Red Sox have any interest in doing that. To be frank, L.Duda made more sense--he has much more experience at 1b and his power numbers are better than Bruce's this year. Since the Red Sox weren't interested in Duda, I imagine they have even less interest in Bruce. My best guess: on Monday, the Red Sox will trade M.Chavis and J.Callahan to the Mets for rental, A.Reed. This will be another Red Sox overpay and so it fits perfectly into Dombrowski's trade philosophy. If I'm Dombrowski, I would shift my attention to S.Gray and would offer a package around Groome. Gray is signed for two more years beyond this one and there are plenty of unknowns with the Red Sox starting staff beyond C.Sale. Gray fits into the Red Sox 3 year "go for it" window. After the three years are up, time to rebuild.

Or we will get A.Reed from the Mets for Groome and Chavis. Our general manager, with the $400.00 hair cut, would absolutely jump at that deal.

If they signed EE, they wouldn't be able to sign Hosmer in the offseason. EE is pretty much one-dimensional, DH is his best spot and the Red Sox already have Hanley. They prefer two way players like Hosmer. If they signed EE, no Houck, over luxury tax, and no Hosmer in the offseason. Passing on EE was the right move. If the Red Sox signed EE, they would spend two years (maybe 3) managing two DHs--Hanley and EE. Good luck with that.

Another disappointing start from Rodriguez. They need him to get his act together. Moreland 0 for 2; in the meantime, Duda hits his first HR with the Rays. Good job, Dave.