Fan_since_Boggs
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Everything posted by Fan_since_Boggs
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Or non-tender. I think the Red Sox are likely to sign E.Hosmer especially if their 2017 season ends with a whimper. They need more hitting, they like two way players, Hanley can't play first full time, Travis isn't a serious option. Hosmer will only be 28 going into the 2018 season--the Red Sox will be comfortable with a 4-5 year contract. The Red Sox can go over the luxury tax next year. They have Devers at 3b, Benintendi in LF, and so they aren't going to fill those positions via free agency. NEXT YEAR: 1b- Hosmer 2b- Pedroia SS- Bogaerts 3b- Devers C- Vazquez/Swihart LF- Benintendi platoon with Brentz or Castillo CF- Bradley RF- Betts DH- Hanley PLEASE REMIND ME: What will Hosmer cost the Red Sox in terms of draft compensation? Not a first round pick, correct? But I think a second or third, if I'm not mistaken. To be sure, the Royals will make Hosmer a qualifying offer.
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We wouldn't have T.Houck if we signed E.Encarncion. Moreover, we would probably be over the luxury tax. But include me in the unimpressed category when it comes to Dombrowski. All he did was (1) trade stud prospects for stars, but anyone can do that. A kid in high school could do that. (2) Trading T.Shaw was a massive blunder, the kind of move that Dombrowski was supposedly too shrewd to make. (3) I'm still waiting for Dombrowski to swing a deal comparable to the shrewd Cashman acquisitions of Chapman, Castro, and Didi.
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It is hard to understand why Dombrowski didn't acquire Duda. I realize some members of this forum do not like Duda, but Duda has a better OPS+ this year than any of the Red Sox's hitters. Moreover, to make matters worse, the Red Sox starting 1b is in a huge slump with a .396 OPS in the month of July. The Red Sox could have acquired Duda without giving up a top prospect. Like or hate him, Duda would have provided some kind of offensive upgrade for the Red Sox.
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I read somewhere that his velocity is down. Can anyone confirm?
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I'm not sure where you are getting this from but Baseball Reference currently has Bogaerts with a 1.2 WAR. If we project that out for the rest of the season, maybe he finishes with a 2.0 WAR? The problem with Bogaerts, and the reason it won't make sense to sign him long term, concerns his defense. This is the second year in a row where he is giving up more runs than saving (defensively). Sure, he may start producing again offensively, but his defense at SS is always going to cut into his overall value as a player. Can you picture what his defense at SS is going to be like at age 30? That is why I wouldn't sign him to a long term extension. Also, does anyone know why Bogaerts WAR is higher at Fangraphs than Baseball Reference? Does Fangraphs calculate defense into WAR?
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I would replace Price with B.Johnson. It sounds like the Red Sox are gong with Fister. I think the Red Sox could win a championship without Price but they would need guys like Rodriquez and Porcello to step up. In the playoffs, the Red Sox might need a Madison Bumgarner-like performance from Chris Sale, but Sale might have that in him. . . .
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Alonso's hitting in June & July is a definite source of concern. I liked Duda the best--three months with just about a .900 OPS or better. A slower July, but he can get going again. He has been a very streaker hitter in the past and maybe the Red Sox could ride one of his hot streaks. I thought he was worth the risk and asking price. I guess the Red Sox are going to stick with Moreland.
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Definitely. Small market teams will sometimes platoon two guys in one spot and get really good production out of it. The production might be worth 15 million and yet they are playing both players league minimum. The Rays are good at finding bargains like that.
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Ken Rosenthal: Kind of interesting that he mentions Bruce and Granderson but not Duda. I would prefer Duda out of the 3 Mets players.
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Interesting comp. He could be the right handed version of Brandon Moss. Corner outfielders who are very productive against LHP usually stick around in the majors for a few years in a platoon situation. They have value. Kind of like Jonny Gomes.
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I'm intrigued by Lin--he could be a starting SS in the future. His defense is already there, just needs to demonstrate more consistency with the bat. For me, trading Bogaerts is out of the question for now. The Red Sox would be trading him at his lowest value. But it is worth noting that Bogaerts' defense at SS isn't all that great and might get worse over the next few years. In a few years, it might be time to move Bogaerts off of SS especially if his offense doesn't make up for his defensive inadequacies. Could Lin replace him? Lin has more of a traditional SS body. Bogaerts' body might get too big.
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Young is 33 (will be 34 in Sept), isn't hitting lefties this year, and is a washed up piece of crap. Brentz made adjustments (isn't the same hitter as last year) and is raking against lefties (over 1.000 OPS against lefties in AAA). I'm not sure why it is taking the Red Sox so long to make this move; though, as someone pointed out, Brentz probably gets called up in Sept when the rosters expand and will be given a shot to replace Young at that time. I would make the move now since we are fighting for the division and need to improve offensive output against lefties.
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Let's say the Red Sox don't make any more trades. I'm trying to figure out how this all fits together. (1) Release/trade C.Young and promote B.Brentz (2) Activate E.Nunez and demote B.Holt Against RHP: Nunez (rotate: 2b, SS, 3b, LF, RF, DH) Benintendi (LF) Pedroia (2b) Betts (RF) Ramirez (DH) Bradley (CF) Bogaerts (SS) Moreland (1b) Devers (3b) Vazquez © Against LHP: Nunez (DH) Pedroia (2b) Betts (RF) Ramirez (1b) Bradley (CF) Brentz (LF) Bogaerts (SS) Vazquez © Devers (3b) Nunez plays everyday as the leadoff hitter; Nunez is the super utility guy against RHP giving a day of rest to one of the starters in the lineup; when Nunez plays LF, Benintendi shifts to CF, giving Bradley a day off. Devers starts against LHP (I want the extra HR power in the lineup).
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He now has a 1.4 WAR on the year. If he keeps trending in this direction, he will soon be at replacement level. Does anyone have a link to Devers' HR? I didn't see it. I would promote Lin, activate Nunez, and demote Holt, place Bogaerts on the DL. (1) People are saying that Nunez should get some playing time at SS, but he is a poor defensive SS and I wouldn't want him there for a stretch of games. (2) I would promote Lin and play him at SS while Bogaerts is on the DL. (3) I could be wrong, but I think Holt has an option. I would like to see Holt hit in AAA before giving him major league at-bats. (3) Nunez essentially replaces Holt as the super-utility guy, plays just about every day, and bats leadoff, moving Betts to the middle of the order.
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Bogaerts has a 1.4 WAR. Stunning. Are we even going to get a 2 WAR out of this guy this year? Watching him play this season is kind of like watching the movie, Titanic. Off to a good start, but then the beautiful ship sinks into the deep blue sea.
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7/25 Devers @ Mariners
Fan_since_Boggs replied to mvp 78's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
I'm not big on bunting, but when your offense is slumping, and you have guys on first and second with no outs, you have to bunt there. Moreland, Young (the guy who hit for Moreland and didn't get the runners over) can't bunt? Marrero can't bunt? If no one can bunt, the Red Sox have to add someone to the bench who can play some "small ball." -
The offense needs a spark and so I like Nunez leadoff while moving Betts to cleanup, thereby giving the Red Sox a much improved presence in the middle of the order.
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My guess is Rutledge--the guy belongs in an independent baseball league. Moreover, they have plenty of infielders, Marrero, Lin, Holt, and now Nunez. edit: JasonBay beat me to it.
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I'm expecting Nunez to bat leadoff, with Betts moving to the middle of the batting order, probably clean up. Nunez doesn't have great OBP, but he makes contact and can run.
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(1) Promote Brentz. (It is amazing to think that the Red Sox are not hitting HRs and have a guy in AAA who is crushing LHP--one HR every 10 at-bat. How long will the organization continue to ignore Brentz's power surge?). Send down Marrero, or, better yet, demote Holt to AAA (he might have an option left). (2) M.Chavis and J.Callahan to the Mets for L.Duda and A.Reed. I would be willing to add a third player to the deal. (3) Place M.Moreland on DL Against RHP Betts RF Benintendi LF Pedroia 2b Duda 1b Ramirez DH Bradley CF Bogaerts SS Devers 3b Vazquez C Against LHP Betts RF Young DH Pedroia 2b Ramirez 1b Bradley CF Brentz LF Bogaerts SS Devers 3b Vazquez C
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2017 Season General Discussion Thread
Fan_since_Boggs replied to Northern Star's topic in Other Baseball
Moncada struck out 4 times today. Went 1 for 5. Moncada's strikeouts are something to watch, probably the most problematic aspect of his game. -
I wouldn't either and so I've changed my mind on that matter, but I agree with Eric Van's assessment of Moreland and the need to acquire a starting 1b. I don't trust Moreland the rest of the way and he probably needs a stint on the DL. They are terrible with the bats. But I think you live with this now and address it in the off-season. Promote Devers, trade for a starting 1b (Alonso, Duda), and hope that Bogaerts, Benintendi have better months ahead. The catcher position will continue to be a black hole on offense.
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EricVan on Mitch Moreland and the injury impacting his numbers. The fact that the hardness of his contact has cratered suggests the injury did have an impact on Moreland's numbers. The point I would emphasize is that even when he fully recovers, his hitting mechanics might be so out of whack that the slump will continue. If that is the case, and it might prove be the case, you have to trade for someone, find another starting 1b. L.Duda and Y.Alonso are better than an injured M.Moreland.
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Eric Van, a sabermetric guy who used to work for the Red Sox (posts on soxprospects.com) is against trading for a catcher. This is what he says:
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Doubtful if you look at his pre-injury versus post-injury numbers. I don't believe in coincidences. The injury cut into Moreland's production and there is no guarantee that he will ever get going again this season. As such, the Red Sox need to make a trade for a first baseman, even if that player is Duda or Alonso. EDIT: Here's the info: Convinced?
