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Fan_since_Boggs

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Everything posted by Fan_since_Boggs

  1. Fan_since_Boggs
    I don't know who I dislike more, JD Martinez for reasons that are pretty self-explanatory, or Dave Dombrowski for not moving on and finding someone else for the DH spot next year. Clearly, when Dombrowski develops a fixation for a player, he can't be moved off that player, and this would explain the overpay in some of his prior deals, especially the Sale trade.
  2. Fan_since_Boggs
    Looks like word is getting around on Clint Frazier. The Yankees tried to dump him on the Pirates for Cole and the Pirates found the Astros offer to be more attractive. The Red Sox could have put together an offer with more minor league talent, but I suspect the Pirates wanted major league ready talent based on what they received from the Astros. As such, I'm not sure if the Red Sox/Pirates matched up very well.
  3. Fan_since_Boggs
    http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sd-sp-padres-hire-cameron-fangraphs-research-development-20180110-story.html I figured this would happen sooner or later. I was hoping the Red Sox would be the organization to hire Cameron but he is probably too analytical for Dombrowski's tastes.
  4. Fan_since_Boggs
    Martinez is clearly a better offensive player Bruce, but if you can save around 100 million by signing Bruce, I'm very open to the idea. They are the same age--I also like the idea of a 3 year commitment to Bruce versus a 5 or 6 year commitment to Martinez. There really isn't a lot downside to Bruce's contract. When he declines due to age, he will be long gone. A Bruce and Hanley platoon at DH might be good enough for 2018 and then next year that 100 million saved goes toward Machado or Harper. I also wonder if Martinez is really a "winning" player. He isn't satisfied with 120 million, or whatever lucrative offer is out there, and instead wants 180 million and is willing to skip part of spring training to get the contract he wants. An organization might not want to pursue players like that--it creates a culture that is arguably antithetical to winning. Of course, Dombrowski will sign Martinez even if he has to overpay. He has overpaid for pretty much every asset he has acquired (as Red Sox President) and so why stop now.....
  5. Fan_since_Boggs
    Instead of waiting around for JD Martinez, signing Bruce for the DH role wouldn't have been a terrible plan B strategy. 3 years, only 39 million, no long term commitment, a contract that can easily be moved. In contrast, JD Martinez wants 5 or 6 years with a lot more money. Once again, Dombrowski fails to impress in his decision making. He appears to get fixated on certain players and must have those players even if an overpay is necessary. True, he hasn't overpaid for Martinez yet, but if there is a better bargain on the market why not take it and say goodbye to the Martinez negotiations? Such a move would also put the Red Sox in a better position to spend on Machado or Harper next year.
  6. Fan_since_Boggs
    He might not get in. The voters will have to decide if he really failed that test or if that info was incorrect. If he really failed the test, they should keep him out. But Ortiz's candidacy is an issue for several reasons--the DH thing too. To be sure, he won't make it in his first year of eligibility. He will be a controversial candidate. Manny might not even get enough support to make the ballot the second time. That's the key for me--getting these guys off the ballot ASAP so that we don't have to talk about it every year (I think that happened to R.Palmerio). Bonds and Clemons were always in that grey area because they were great players prior to juicing. In fact, they would both be in the HOF if they didn't cheat the game. Of course, take away steroids and Bonds doesn't turn into Babe Ruth at the age of 35 (and wouldn't be the all time HR leader) and Clemons would have fewer Cy Youngs, and so keeping them out is now the only acceptable course of action.
  7. Fan_since_Boggs
    Interesting: J.Beeks had better Triple A ratios last year than C.Adams. True, Adams is one year younger than Beeks, but still..... And Beeks doesn't get all that much attention. True, Beeks is 5'11, and doesn't have the big body that scouts look for, but Adams is 6'1, thus he has no Roy Halladay or Roger Clemons body either. At best, Adams is a future middle of the rotation starter. He is no ace in him at all. Admittedly, those guys are rare, but trading Cole for a future middle of the rotation starter (at best) along with Frazier, a guy who has never produced at a high level in the minor leagues? Can Brian Cashman stop trying to squeeze the life out of the small markets and at least offer something fair? If the Pirates can't get Torres, and it sounds like they can't, they have to at least get Andjujar. Due to position scarcity, you take the infielder over the corner outfielder.
  8. Fan_since_Boggs
    I agree. I thought the Giants were interested but they acquired Longoria and are now likely targeting a more modest corner outfielder, maybe a LHB too. The Angels signed J.Upton for around 100 million, that is a really good comp for Martinez. I'm hoping the Red Sox get him for around that amount.
  9. Fan_since_Boggs
    This why B.Cherrington will likely never get another chance to be a GM. No owner in his right mind is ever going to give Cherrington control of baseball operations again.
  10. Fan_since_Boggs
    If you accept the assumption that Frazier is nothing more than a 4th outfielder (my position), then you are really only giving up C.Adams for Cole, since 4th outfielders are fungible. C.Adams isn't good enough to lead a package for Cole IMO. In the first place, Adams is 6'1, kind of small for a starter. Let's face it, scouts love the big body, big guy, when it comes to projecting starting pitchers--they love the Curt Schilling and Roger Clemons bodies and Adams doesn't have that. Adams numbers in AAA are OK, but his ratios aren't dominant. I like Adams, just saying he isn't good enough to lead a package for Cole, an established major league starter with big time stuff. Maybe there is a compromise deal to be made, like Adams and Florial for Cole or Adams and Andjujar for Cole. My suspicion is that Cashman is pretty determined to trade Frazier, dump him on someone else.
  11. Fan_since_Boggs
    (1) I would never put Adams in the same category as Kopech. Adams is interesting, but doesn't have Kopech's upside. Kopech's upside has increased over the last year, but his upside was huge even when the Red Sox traded him for Sale--this is why so many posters on soxprospects.com flipped out when they traded Kopech. (2) I agree that Torres and Adams together are too much for Cole. However, I think the Pirates are right in asking for a package built around Torres. I think Torres and a lesser piece are fair value for Cole, whereas Frazier and Adams together are a joke of an offer. The kind of offer that only a scumbag like Brian Cashman would put together.
  12. Fan_since_Boggs
    I thought this at first too. But, (1) it doesn't make sense to move sideways--improve the lineup (Martinez) while weakening the OF defense (trading Bradley) and I'm sure Dombrowski can figure this out. (2) It doesn't make sense to move sideways while holding on to a guy (Hanley) who has no role on the team beyond 2018 (the Red Sox are not letting the option vest). Hanley's days as a Red Sox are clearly numbered. Hanley played himself into a backup role last season. He is getting older, can't stay healthy, his skills have declined, and he isn't much of a factor at the plate anymore (95 OPS+ last year). He isn't going to be the starting DH as that would likely mean his option would vest and the Red Sox don't want that to happen. The only question for Hanley is: does he stick around this year as a bench player and get a few ABs at first base (when Moreland sits against a lefty) and a few ABs at DH?
  13. Fan_since_Boggs
    Interesting. The Yankees were trying to dump C.Frazier on the Pirates for Cole. Apparently, Cashman has finally figured out that Frazier was more hype than prospect. Unfortunately for Cashman, it appears the Pirates have figured this out too. They don't want Frazier--they want Torres for Cole, which would actually be a fair deal for both sides. But Cashman doesn't make a trade unless he can rip off the other team (the ethics of a degenerate) and so it sounds like this is going nowhere. I know some people disagree with my assessment of Frazier, but look over his numbers--he lacks elite production at every level and was completely overwhelmed at the major league level last season (84 OPS+). We are talking about a guy who is going to turn 24 years old in the upcoming season. At some point, you have to put up big numbers to prove you are a big time prospect. Frazier never has.
  14. Fan_since_Boggs
    Agreed. And if he acts up in any way, due to the fact that the Red Sox seem to be planning to keep the option from vesting, you simply release him. Thus, Hanley has an incentive to be on his best behavior; otherwise he gets released and since his career is almost over anyway, he isn't going to get many more opportunities. I predicted last season that the Red Sox might release Hanley in the offseason if they could do it without being responsible for the 2019 option. If Brentz shows he can play 1b in spring training, or if the Red Sox can sign a righty bat to platoon with Moreland, the chances of releasing Hanley go up. In addition, they don't even need Hanley for depth purposes--they have Chavis waiting in the wings for that. But this is all contingent on the Red Sox signing JD Martinez, and I'm assuming they will sign him. In a sense, a year of JD Martinez kind of pays for itself. You could start Hanley and let the option vest for 2019 or you could sign JD Martinez and stop Hanley's option from vesting, giving that 2019 option money to JD Martinez instead.
  15. Fan_since_Boggs
    Trade Bogaerts and his 10 million dollar salary and replace him with free agent Machado who will be making around 25 million per year and the Red Sox will have added 15 million to the 2019 payroll. That's doable for 2019. The Red Sox have a lot of money coming off the books after that (to afford Machado long term). 2019 lineup could look like this: 1b: Moreland 2b: Pedroia SS: Machado 3b: Devers C: Vazquez LF: Benintendi CF: Bradley RF: Betts DH: JD Martinez
  16. Fan_since_Boggs
    Ramirez is a sunk cost in that he is owed 22 million in 2018, the Red Sox can't trade him, he is worthless (-0.3 WAR) as a player, and I don't believe he will show signs of improvement. Thus, the Red Sox could release Ramirez tomorrow and such a move wouldn't have a negative impact on the 2018 Red Sox. You could easily replace Hanley at a fraction of the cost. As far as 2019 goes, I agree the Red Sox cannot possibly allow the option to vest. The Red Sox have already paid him a fortune and he sucks as a player.
  17. Fan_since_Boggs
    My updated lineup (assuming the Red Sox sign Martinez for DH): Betts RF Benintendi LF Martinez DH Moreland/Ramirez 1b Devers 3b Bogaerts SS Bradley CF Hernandez 2b Vazquez C
  18. Fan_since_Boggs
    But Moreland might be a moveable contract after this year. Hanley is basically a sunk cost--the Red Sox must take such measures as to make sure he isn't a sunk cost next year as well. We saw last year that the Red Sox prefer sitting Moreland against lefties. They will play Hanley against lefties, assuming they sign Martinez for DH. I doubt the Red Sox are going to sign JD Martinez and then turn around and weaken their OF defense (trade Bradley) in order to secure a starting DH spot for a sunk cost like Hanley Ramirez. Hanley played himself into a platoon role last season.
  19. Fan_since_Boggs
    Love this move--it puts them in a better position to compete for Machado & Harper; whereas signing Hosmer would make it harder. I could see the Red Sox signing JD Martinez and platooning Ramirez with Moreland at 1b. I'm guessing the Red Sox are pretty serious about not letting Hanley's option vest. The only thing is L.Morrison--how much does he end up getting and should the Red Sox have signed him instead of Moreland? Then again, maybe Morrison gets more than Moreland and thus the Red Sox went with the cheaper option. It'll be interesting to see what happens with L.Morrison. 1b: Moreland/Ramirez 2b: Hernandez SS: Bogaerts 3b: Devers C: Vazquez LF: Benintendi CF: Bradley RF: Betts DH: Martinez lineup: Betts Benintendi Martinez Moreland/Ramirez Devers Bogaerts Bradley Hernandez Vazquez
  20. Fan_since_Boggs
    To be sure, he can't be any worse than Chris Young 2017 version. If they can stick with Young, even though he was toast, they can give Brentz an opportunity.
  21. Fan_since_Boggs
    OK, let's say that that one player the Red Sox are focused on is JD Martinez. Let's say the Red Sox sign him (for around J.Upton money) and L.Morrison. (1) The Red Sox wouldn't give up any draft picks. (2) The Red Sox would have the extra depth to block H.Ramirez's option. (3) The organization can handle one big contract (JD Martinez), maintaining enough flexibility for the Machado & Harper sweepstakes in next year's free agency. (4) As far as the lineup goes, I like the idea of giving Bradley a chance at leadoff with the hope that the spot will augment Bradley's OBP skills (increase his walk totals). 1b: Morrison/Ramirez 2b: Hernandez SS: Bogaerts 3b: Devers LF: Benintendi CF: Bradley RF: Betts DH: Martinez C: Vazquez Lineup: Bradley Betts Benintendi Martinez Morrison/Ramirez Devers Bogaerts Hernandez Vazquez
  22. Fan_since_Boggs
    Weird comment by Dombrowski -- not sure what he means. I'm inclined to think that he is focused on Hosmer. The Red Sox have an immediate opening at 1b, whereas they don't have an immediate OF spot for JD Martinez. Hanley is pretty much locked into the DH spot (I presume). I like the idea of moving Betts to second base as that would allow the Red Sox to go all in on B.Harper next year, but there is no news on Betts moving and so I doubt it happens. I read that some see T.Frazier as a 2b. That's a possibility for the Red Sox. On the other hand, Frazier at 2b, Bogaerts at SS, and Devers at 3b is weak infield defense. I think Devers will get better defensively, but Frazier will probably struggle at 2b and Bogaerts is a second rate defender. Chavis played in the Arizona league. Did the Red Sox even take a look at him at 2b? My understanding is that he alternated between 1b and 3b. Just read this post on another forum--thought it made sense--a good comparison for JD Martinez--let's hope Dombrowski doesn't overpay:
  23. Fan_since_Boggs
    Good luck finding a high level replacement for Pedroia. In trading Moncada, the Red Sox solved one problem (no ace) and created another problem (no future 2b). That's what you call bad decision-making by the GM. I would offer E.Rodriguez (maybe the Orioles want him back) and Bogaerts for Machado. Supposedly, the Orioles want 2 controllable starters for Machado, but they might only be able to get one. Sign L.Morrison for 1b. Sign a platoon partner for Hanley at DH: maybe Duda. 1b: Morrison 2b: Hernandez SS: Machoado 3b: Devers C: Vazquez LF: Benintendi CF: Bradley Jr RF: Betts DH: Duda/Hanley Forget Hosmer and JD Martinez. Instead, add offense by upgrading a middle infield position and get ready to resign Machado after the season.
  24. Fan_since_Boggs
    I don't think highly of Leon at all. Sale's excellence has nothing to do with Leon IMO. Leon is a fringy MLB player. He will probably be the starting catcher on the Long Island Ducks in a few years. If the Red Sox don't trade Bradley Jr., do they have a spot for JD Martinez? I don't see it. (1) You don't want Hanley in the field--he should be the DH, or at least a part time DH. (2) The Red Sox might need the DH spot for Pedroia in the long run. The Red Sox were pursuing Ozuna--what does that mean? I would think that Bradley is indeed on the trade market. If Bradley wasn't on the trade market, what would they do with Ozuna? The Red Sox need a 1b, keep DH open for Hanley and perhaps Pedroia long term, and they may decide to trade Bradley, move Benintendi to center, and bring in a LF bat (perhaps JD Martinez). I'm assuming the initial reports regarding Bradley being on the trade market were correct.
  25. Fan_since_Boggs
    I guess it all comes down to championships. Theo made some awful moves, but he delivered two championships and so he gets a pass in many ways. Dombrowski has to deliver a championship or his tenure will be viewed as a failure (mostly).
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