oldtimer

I agree that we have fallen behind clubs like the Jays, Astros and Yankees and are just barely competitive with the Rays and Orioles. We have a big hill to climb in 2023 and with Sale iffy and possibly losing 5 to free agency, it might just be more than we can expect, especially if the goal is to get below the tax line. If I was Bloom, I would try boost the teams competitiveness in 2023 and splurge in 2024. Guys like Casas, Bellow and Rafaela might give us an infusion of low cost enthusiastic talent that can be built on. I would look to emulate the Astros or Braves by locking up quality players and putting players at every position who play solid defense and can hit. We definitely need pitching and that is where we should spend the bulk of our available money this offseason.

I'm glad that you aren't the GM.

It doesn't help much to be fast if a player has a low on base percentage. With teams going with 12 position players, I would think they would be reluctant to use one position for pinch running. That said, Turner is the best of both worlds, hitting and speed along with excellent defense. That's why he would be very expensive if he could be pried loose from the west coast.

Maybe the Sox will go in the direction of resetting the payroll in 2023, particularly if they can't or won't resign Bogey. In that case they could go low cost and bring up some of our prospects early and supplement that with a veteran and use the money saved on pitching across the board. Such a solution would include Casas, Rafaela and perhaps Mayer as our players of the future, supplemented with perhaps a Trey Mancini as a veteran presence. It is a far out idea but since in 2023 we are unlikely to be fully competitive anyway a reset makes some sense. Go for pitching to supplement the Sox pitching staff which has some quality but needs additional depth.

So if we are able to resign Bogey at around $25Mil for 5 years, then our field players look like: Devers 3rd Bogey SS Story 2nd Casas 1st Verdugo LF Hernandez CF Impact Player RF (Could this be Rafaela)? McGuire C Impact Player DH Arroyo Util IF Hosmer Util !st Refsnyder Util OF Wong BU C Pretty Expensive group and not fully competitive with the Jays, Astros and Yankees who will also try to improve. May have to avoid paying big for a DH but we need both power hitting and depth. It is also a concern with the 162 game grind whether we have the depth available on thee 40 man as Rafaela and Casas appear to be the only two field players in the minors that are likely to make the jump in 2023. I hope the experiment with Dalbec and Codero is over.

We have talked about the need to have a productive farm system. To do that, we need to draft well (lot of competition there), we need to develop our raw talent and perhaps we need to trade players who are either near decline or off of a top but unlikely repeatable year, and by doing so acquire developmental talent. The better teams are able to promote a few low cost but higher potential players each year to supplement it's core players. The core players are subject to the wear and team of the 162 game season and all teams suffer injuries so the farm is an important part of the depth equation. The Sox haven't done well in this area in the past and with Bloom we see farm improvement but the verdict is out. Let's wait and see what he does to strengthen the core and how well the improved farm produces the needed depth and energy players in 2023.

A variation of the old joke. Bloom was hired to take over the Rex Sox as GM. Dombrowski, who was stepping down met with him privately and presented him with three numbered envelopes. “Open these if you run into serious trouble,” he said. Well, three months later win totals were still way down and Bloom was catching a lot of heat. He began to panic but then he remembered the envelopes. He went to his drawer and took out the first envelope. The message read, “Blame your predecessor.” Bloom called a press conference and explained that Dombrowski had left him with a real mess and it was taking a bit longer to clean it up than expected, but everything was on the right track. Satisfied with his comments, the press – and Fans – responded positively. Another 3 months went by and the Sox continued to struggle. Having learned from his previous experience, Bloom quickly opened the second envelope. The message read, “Reorganize.” So he traded key people, brought up rookies and cut costs everywhere he could. This he did and the Fans, and the press, were hopeful about his efforts. Three months passed and the Sox were clearly worse than before. Bloom had to figure out how to get through another series of severe criticisms. Boom went to his office, closed the door and opened the third envelope. The message said, “Prepare three envelopes.”

We certainly are getting a look at how far the Sox are behind the AL East during the series against the Jays this weekend. Lack of pitching, poor hitting and generally poor field play. Obviously we can't put the same guys on the field and expect better in 2023. Just as obviously, we are limited by budget and prospects available to only be able to improve and close part of the gap in 2023. Bloom and the front office will be judged by how much forward progress we can make.

I believe the pessimism stems from our last place finish, where we were not competitive with the AL East teams. Others got better while we were worse. Yes we had injuries but so did other teams. Rather than debate what happened last year, we need to be looking at the possibilities of making a major turnaround inn 2023. We still are carrying Sale and people rightly are questioning the probability of him returning to anything near Ace level. We will have Bello and Casas as hopeful additions, but we will lose JD and possibly Bogey along with potential loss of Eovaldi and Wacha. It leaves Bloom with a lot to do in the starting pitching area. There is a depth need in thee RP area and some position player areas. Possibly SS, RF, DH. There is a lot to do and we can't just go with average players and expect to gain competitiveness, we need impact players and that means spending. Since we had a real chance of resetting in 2022 and didn't, now the question is whether JH will ask Bloom to reset in 2023, limiting the money available to make major acquisitions. Bloom will need to be a miracle man to return us to real contention in 2023. I would be satisfied if we could at least see a significant improvement with a plan to get us back to top tier in 2024 or 2025.

How soon do we think Ceddanne will make the 26 man? He may well be an exciting player and a low cost one at that. I get the impression from the reports, he is knocking on the door of making the team sometime during 2023. It looks like he could be a CF or RF candidate. If so, we should be careful about giving long term contracts to other outfielders. I think Kike's is a one year for $10 mil. Based on his offensive performance this year I wonder if that was a wise move.

Casas is > Dalbec and it is helping the Sox be more competitive.

Casas had a hit and two walks. One for two. Continues to be encouraging.

Turner would be great should Bogey prove to be impossible but that would mean commiting at least $25 mil for a significant period.

When we consider Duran and Downs didn't live up to ML standards, we may have the real thing with Casas.

I would like to consider the length of contracts as a part of any deal. Also, we need to remember that Devers will need to be signed to a large and fairly long term contract shortly as well. I would go with Bogey for 5 years at $25. I also would consider Story for SS should the Bogey deal prove impossible. I would move Kike into 2nd for next year and look to add a right fielder who could handle center or right. Nimmo fits that description well and we can use Pham for another year in left and Verdugo in right. Alternatively, we have a low cost candidate for CF knocking on the door in Ceddanne but then could still use Nimmo in right and Verdugo in Left with Pham a Util OF/DH player. Is there enough money to cover Devers, Bogey, Story and Nimmo? we still have Sales contract and will need another front line starter and some quality FP's?

I still believe a lot will hinge on what the Sox do about signing Bogey. If we can't resign him, they we have the option of Story at short then Kike could be either CF or 2nd base. The latter approach would require both a CF be signed and the use of Pham (if resigned) and Verdugo for the other spots. We could use Arroyo and Pham as quality utility players and pickup a RF instead while playing Verdugo in left. Moon has been talking about our #3 prospect, who might be the next big thing. He has CF potential and may make Duran expendable. Of course we need pitching and it remains to be seen if either Sale or Paxton will be factors in 2023.

Casas appears more advanced then I surmised. He could well be are starting first baseman out of 2023 spring training. He has a better glove than Dalbec and a much better glove than Cordero. and has better plate discipline than any of our current options. Maybe we will make adjustments to our 40 man accordingly. No doubt he will have his struggles, as they all do but it does provide some hope for 2023 and beyond.

One ought to consider the moves not made as well. Sitting on ones hands while positions grossly underperform is also something to score a GM's effectiveness.

It's been a tough year. They find a lot of ways to lose. Sloppy baseball with too many errors, bad base running, we know about pitching issues and too many guys declining at the plate. Obviously we need better pitching, but also a more focused team that plays consistently with less errors and better base running. We need to jettison the guys that can't put up major league offensive numbers. We stayed way too long with those that couldn't. Let's get guys who are excellent at their positions and limit the number of flexible position guys who are only average at their positions. Moon is somewhat optimistic for 2023 but I am from Missouri on this team and have to be shown that Bloom, Cora and the front office has what it takes to make the hard decisions going forward. Bloom was lauded for resigning Kike for $10M, but I wonder if he might have done better with the money. If this is evidence of the type of moves Bloom will make, it is not the kind that sells me n his approach. Saying that, I still know that there is money to spend and if it is used wisely we may yet field a competitive team in 2023.

I am not that optimistic for 2023 and think that until the situation is settled with Bogey and Devers other decisions are secondary. I don't know what constraints were on him this year but I look at some of the decisions and the results, I don't think he can be afforded high marks. The inability to resolve the first base problems and the poor approach to the RF problem. I also wonder at his continual dumpster diving for the BP. I also wonder why so many red sox players declined in 2022. Some of that has to fall on Cora. He of course presided over the team in 2021 where the performances were much better. Will Bloom and Cora make the hard decisions needed to move this team forward? Will JH encourage them to do so? Like I say,, I am not that optimistic.

Let's hope Dalbec will not be on our 40 man next year. He is a AAA wonder only.

Ultimately it comes down to record. We are what the record says we are and we are that way as a result of decisions made by the front office. We don't know the exact circumstances that Bloom faced when going through offseason meetings and at the trade deadline but we can guess from the lack of positive movement. There should be money for 2023 and beyond for Bloom to allocate. There will be no excuses next season. either we see a major improvement of I would guess the Bloom will be off the Red Rose (Sox).

I am all for letting Casas getting exposure to ML pitching for the rest of 2022 but I think he may well start in AAA next season as he works on his hitting. If that is true, the Sox will need to start a player at first for some period of 2023, not named Casas, Hosmer can field but has become a weak hitter. Do they experiment with Arroyo or go out and get a solid right hand first baseman who can platoon with Casas and also DH? As Moon is frequently postulating, do they trade Casas low and just get a full time ist baseman? I am for the first alternative as Casas is still projected to become a long term answer at first base.

So because our tacticians in the front office managed to go over the CBT, we will have to lose two picks in the draft if we sign a FA who has been made a QO. Bloom couldn't decide whether to add or subtract so got us the penalty for our last place team. Nice Going.

Just a thought about what we might have done this season. Hunter Renfroe 250 BA with 25 HR and Kyle Schwaber 213 BA with 39 HR.