oldtimer

Do you establish what a player is worth by what some team is willing to pay him or based on what he is likely to deliver to the team in some measure of value over time? I don't believe Devers is worth $400 million for 14 years. It could just be that teams are committing suicide with these expensive and high risk long term contracts. If the Sox aren't willing to go in the direction of high states long term contracts, then they need to be honest and trade Devers at the beginning of the season. Will it still be possible in todays market to extend young high potential players to long term contracts. If so, maybe that is the way to go. Get some star quality players and fill in with competent major leaguers. If that is what Bloom is thinking, then it's worth a try.

Good. The temptation to resign him was there but we should be looking elsewhere.

I agree that it was a bad mistake not to reset last season making it a necessity to reset in the 2023 season, given that they probably understood Bogey was going. No amount of spending in the off season would realistically make the team competitive in the 2023 season without jeopardizing the team's longer term future. I now doubt that they can keep Devers as he can get a big contract from a playoff caliber team in the offseason. I believe Moon has opined that it might be better to trade Devers and look to 2024 as the year to make a splash. Given where we are at this point, aiming for 2024 does make the most sense, but the Sox front office should be honest with the fan base that the plan has now changed to aim for 2024 and later. Keeping our best young prospects would be a sign that the plan is for 2024 and later. Will Bloom survive another poor result in 2023 and the trade or failure to sign Devers? Stay tuned.

Here is a related thought on how to develop a consistently competitive team through trades and the draft. It's not a novel thought as some teams seem to practice the approach now. 1. Teams need a few stars bolstered with quality players throughout to be competitive. Having stars reach free agency approximately when they reach peak performance and then paying them exorbitant very long term contracts seems to be where the market is headed. That approach requires almost unlimited budgets to fill in rosters with other quality players. You may get a few great years but then the stars are likely to decline and the team has to swallow many years of non performing contracts. 2. An alternative to this is to draft and trade wisely for young players with high potential. When some show the potential to be stars go ahead and extend them to long term attractive contracts that those players are likely to accept. Set the length of contract to extend a couple of years beyond their expected peak performance years. The risk is that they may not become stars but instead just good quality players. If they do become star quality and the market blows up, as it is now, trade them for other star potential prospects around the time of their peak performance. 3. Approach 2 may well be less costly, allowing the surrounding players to be of higher quality so the team becomes consistently competitive.

We may be better at run prevention but run production means guys like Casas, Yoshida, Story and Hernandez have to perform. You take the optimistic view on that possibility. I hope you are right.

Houston extended key contracts earlier and it paid off. They made wise decisions.

We scored 4.54 runs/game last year, which was down near the bottom of the AL. With Bogey and JDM gone and a rookie at 1st base we may well perform worse in 2023. Bloom needs to spend the remaining budget wisely to pick up both a near the top of the rotation starting pitcher and a right handed power hitter (outfield) to avoid remaining in the AL cellar.

My view is that with the loss of Bogey and JDM plus the uncertainty in the starting pitching area, we are somewhat less competitive than we were last season. Bloom is making noises about still being very active soliciting trades. As fans, we can talk until we are blue in the face but realistically we just have to await Bloom's moves, if any His reputation as a GM is at stake in the coming period before the start of Spring Training. Resetting this year while making measurable improvement may be all we can hope for this year.

ouch!

Would Bogey and one more star have made the team competitive in 2023? Probably not, but it would have hamstrung the Sox down the line. I still look at Houston, who try to extend their best players, but when that doesn't work as in Correa, they find an alternative and they are good at developing from within. They seem to be competitive every year.

Senga would be a good start although I wonder about a 7 year deal that has been talked about. He is 29 now and has some wear and tear. Senga and a right handed power hitting outfielder would be even better. What we do about SS could impact any outfield options, particularly if we are lucky enough to get Senga.

Signing Correa for a year or two at $35 mil would use almost all of our resources needed for pitching. No doubt his bat and glove would help but it's not the answer if we are truly looking to make this team consistently competitive.

No way anyone should have given Bogey a 280 mil 11 year contract. It would have been thee wrong move for the Sox. One can argue that we did a poor job on extension talks earlier on but Bloom did the right thing by not matching the Padres offer.

So now we have Jansen and Yoshida and a couple of fairly competent relievers and 40 million to spend. Senga is out there and we need at least another outfielder (right handed) and have to fill in at shortstop. If we bring Rafaela up, we will have the most diminutive outfield in the league. Let's not pick any fights. The Bogey loss is a sa one, but I doubt we would ever match the Padres offer. Have to move onward now.

I would not have done the contract. It makes no sense for a team striving to improve since it limits what could be done to bring in additional talent. Since Devers and Bogaerts are reportedly friends, I expect he will look for and get more than the Sox will offer and be gone after 2023. I look at the WS champs and ask myself if they would have done the Bogaerts contract. I doubt that as they certainly look for value when they spend. Bogey is an excellent player but certainly won't be for 11 years.

We still went over the spending ceiling but got very little return on investment. The situation was not handled wisely.

Evidence to date, Hoy Park and Joely Rodriquez. Let's see what happens although Bogaerts needs to be settled before we really know what we have for needs and how much money is vailable.

We will see what Turkeys Bloom will come up with for the 2023 season.

Devers did make a substantial improvement in DWAR last season and that may be part of a positive trend. Still not great defensively, but better.

Makes you wonder if something is wrong with him.

With a last place finish in 2022 and a lot of holes to fill with good but not great money to spend, I still recommend resetting in 2023. Any FA signings should be those who will remain with the club for at least 3 years unless of course they are very inexpensive and can fill a hole pitching or in the lineup for a year. I would exclude very expensive older FA's since even with them we will probably not be competitive at the highest level. A guy like Verlander is still capable but not right for us at this time.

The Dalbec experiment has failed after being pursued for far too long. Let's move on.

You have two CFs and no right RF. I assume one of the two would play right. I can't imagine Hosmer/Dalbec as our DH's. Surely we could do better. It all will hinge on what we do with Bogaerts. Until that is settled, there is not much meaningful that can be done at least with the field players as we won't know our budget flexibility nor if we need to go after a talented SS. If we have set aside a budget for pitching, we can move there although what FA's would markedly improve the staff? I don't see great alternatives.

Fans tend to want their players to be paid the market rate, however many large contracts have a risk factor that often limits the team's overall performance. Bogaerts is a very good player but certainly Bloom will have to assess how to structure his and other salaries such that he can put a competitive team on the field year after year. Both the AAV and the risk associated with diminishing performances over the length of these long contracts is a subject that Kimmi has reacted to in the past. The Astros were WS champs this year and have consistently been very competitive. They have been great at developing pitching and smart about signing players. Correa is a top notch shortstop but they let him go when his contract demand were enough to hamstring the budgetary requirements of the team. They got Pena as a low cost replacement. They have great pitching across the board, excellent defense and enough hitting to be competitive based of their pitching and defense. Their offense came primarily from their lineup positions 1 through 6 with Brantley being injured. The Sox management needs to look closely to see if they can structure our team going forward to emulate what the Astros have done.[/b]

What do fans really think about giving Bogaerts a contract equivalent to his perceived value. (8 years at $225 millions). Haven't heard from Kimmi on this one as yet.