Per Overthemonster folk
About two months ago, the Red Sox fanbase was up in arms after a season-opening series sweep at the hands of the laughing stock of baseball, the Baltimore Orioles. It was then that I put a moratorium on TAKES until Memorial Day, an unofficial checkpoint in the baseball season where we stop shouting “small sample size!” and are forced to take a closer look at the scenarios playing out around the league. Now that Memorial Day has come and gone, it’s due time to unleash some hot takes.
The Leadoff Spot
Getting mad about lineup construction is a rite of passage for a baseball fan. Even though the emphasis on lineup construction and efficiency has gone the way of the dodo in our broader baseball community due to the realization of how minuscule the advantage of an optimal lineup is compared to what most teams do nowadays, it’s something incredibly easy that can reap benefits for teams like the Sox that are playing on the margins.
The average leadoff hitter in baseball this year has a .336 OBP with a 113 wRC+. The Red Sox, who sit sixth in team non-pitcher wRC+ with a 110 mark, are 26th in leadoff OBP and 21st in leadoff wRC+. Enrique Hernández and his .291 OBP are not the solution to that problem. The Sox are a top-heavy offensive team and do a good job of bunching their best hitters together to ensure the best chance of stringing together hits in order to score runs in bunches with Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Rafael Devers in the middle of the lineup. That said, I don’t see how having someone with a sub-.300 OBP in the leadoff spot is helping, and/or how Verdugo wouldn’t be a better fit for the role.
My take is that Hernández should be shuffled to the bottom half of the order while everyone else above him is bumped up one spot with Verdugo manning the leadoff spot.
Mathematically it's impossible for Kike to get more plate appearances with lineup of Verdugo, JD, Xander, Devers, Renfroe, Kike versus Kike, Verdugo, JD, Xander,Devers and Renfroe. Just first grade math. But if batting order doesn't matter why don't we just put the group 6-9 in batting order?