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FanGraphs columnist Jay Jaffe expects the Mariners to extend a qualifying offer that Mitch Haniger will accept: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-11-4-22/ An astute Seattle fan projects this 2023 Mariner lineup (with 2023 age, career OBP, career OPS+ and single-season high in home runs): LF Michael Conforto L (30), .356 OBP, 124 OPS+, 33 HR 1B Ty France R (28), .348 OBP, 122 OPS+, 20 HR CF Julio Rodriguez R (22), .345 OBP, 147 OPS+, 28 HR RF Joey Gallo L (29), .325 OBP, 109 OPS+, 41 HR 3B Eugenio Suarez R (31), .334 OBP, 111 OPS+, 49 HR C Cal Raleigh S (26), .268 OBP, 101 OPS+, 27 HR DH Mitch Haniger R (32), .335 OBP, 123 OPS+, 39 HR SS J.P. Crawford L (28), .333 OBP, 95 OPS+, 9 HR 2B Gleyber Torres R (26), .331 OBP, 114 OPS+, 38 HR No new long-term contracts; no outside free agents with qualifying offers.

In interview with a Seattle radio station, ESPN columnist Jon Morosi mentioned Joey Gallo as a player who could potentially benefit from new restrictions on defensive shifts: https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1687763/morosi-mariners-free-agent-bats-targets-2022/ This Seattle fan has Joey Gallo batting cleanup for the 2023 Mariners.

Like the Seattle Mariners, who traded Pablo Lopez and three others to Miami for David Phelps, and Freddy Peralta and two others to Milwaukee for Adam Lind. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lopezpa01.shtml#all_transactions_other https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peralfr01.shtml#all_transactions_other

The Over the Monster analysis on German Marquez: https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/11/1/23433397/the-red-sox-should-target-rockies-pitcher-german-marquez-in-a-trade-this-offseason

That's why the quantity of quality prospects is important. The Seattle Mariners have graduated a slew of Top 100 prospects over the past few years with disappointing results from Jarred Kelenic, Evan White, Justus Sheffield, Justin Dunn, Taylor Trammell and in the last two years 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis. Yet the promising Mariner future is built around graduated prospects Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby, Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert and Matt Brash. Not all top prospects work out.

The Seattle Mariners were not on the list despite Aaron Judge's reported positive interaction this year with Julio Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr.: Aaron Judge, Julio Rodríguez exchange signed gear WWW.MLB.COM SEATTLE -- Julio Rodríguez was about to duck from the home dugout into the batting cage to take more swings as he works his way back from a right wrist contusion. But first, he said: “We’re about to make a trade.” Say what? The Trade Deadline has passed? No, it Seattle fans should be careful what they wish for in an expensive, long-term contract.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Phillips Valdez, who is a month older than Seattle righthander Luis Castillo, did not earn a mention today in The Athletic's analysis of Seattle's Rule 5 and 40-man roster decisions: https://theathletic.com/3740190/2022/10/31/seattle-mariners-40-man-roster-decisions/ Subscription required.

The staff at The Athletic lists the Red Sox among six potential landing spots for top free agent Aaron Judge: https://theathletic.com/3742516/2022/10/31/aaron-judge-free-agent-destinations/ Subscription required but here is an excerpt:

But, but, but ... Baseball Trade Values approved a trade of five years of 26-year-old Jarren Duran, who posted a negative 0.4 fWAR this year, and four years of 27-year-old Bobby Dalbec, who posted a negative 0.1 fWAR this season, to Seattle for six years of 23-year-old righthander Emerson Hancock, the No. 6 pick in the 2020 draft: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-105381/ Hancock dropped from Top 100 prospect lists this year despite striking out the side in his one-inning appearance at the Futures Game: MLB Gameday: AL Futures 6, NL Futures 4 Final Score (07/16/2022) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for AL Futures vs. NL Futures at Dodger Stadium This year Hancock posted an ERA of 3.75 in 21 starts at Double A Arkansas and is expected to make his MLB debut in 2023: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hancoc000eme Needless to say, Seattle isn't making that trade for disappointing post-prospects who play positions where the Mariners this year fielded All Stars who remain under team control for years.

If the choice is between Brandon Nimmo at five years, $100 million (qualifying offer) and Joey Gallo at two years, $25 million (no qualifying offer), the latter might be the better option. But the Mariners already have a center fielder. From a Seattle forum: https://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7432&sid=f03862a4eefac7aad120e4554e0f8560&start=40#p214116

FWIW in 2021 Joey Gallo posted 4.2 fWAR in 153 games while Brandon Nimmo, who is eight months older than Gallo, posted 3.3 fWAR in 92 games. Nimmo will be rewarded for his fine 2022 season and Gallo punished for his disappointing 2022 season but the contract difference might not be proportionate to their respective values.

Not to answer for the beloved moonslav and notin, but the answer is: YES.

Here's a free agent comp: Jacoby Ellsbury and Brandon Nimmo, lefthand-hitting center fielders who entered free agency after their age 29 seasons. When the Yankees signed Ellsbury to a seven-year, $153 million contract in December 2013 Ellsbury had posted 22.2 fWAR/21.4 bWAR in 715 games, including 4.6 fWAR/5.8 bWAR in 134 games the previous season. Nimmo has posted 17.9 fWAR/17.6 bWAR in 608 games, including 5.4 fWAR/5.0 bWAR in 151 games this year. Products of the High Plains, Ellsbury was the 23rd pick of the 2005 draft out of college while Nimmo was the 13th pick of the 2011 draft out of high school. Will Nimmo approach the years and/or dollars of the Ellsbury contract?

On comp for Triston Casas might be Seattle first baseman Evan White, who in November 2019 signed a six-year, $24 million extension having never played above Double A. White, who was 23 years old, was ranked in the 50-60 range on the following year's Top 100 prospect lists. Casas, who turns 23 in January, entered this season ranked No. 19, No. 16 and No. 44 at the major services. White was coming off a season with a 132 wRC+ at Double A Arkansas while Casas is coming off a season of a 127 wRC+ at Triple A Worcester before his respectable debut with the Red Sox. Their career minor league lines: EW 262 G, 1131 PA, .288/.356/.477/.833 TC 284 G, 1210 PA, .269/.374/.485/.858 White was the 17th pick of the 2017 draft out of college while Casas was the 26th pick of the 2018 draft out of high school. White, at 6-3, 219 pounds, bats right but throws left while Casas, at 6-4, 252 pounds, bats left and throws right. The White extension has not turned out well for the Mariners as the 2020 Gold Glove winner has posted a negative 0.6 fWAR/bWAR in 84 MLB games. Therein lies the risk in signing a young player to an extension. Casas may have All Star potential but fans should be prepared for a wide range of outcomes.

Debates over Tim Anderson's value can be exhausting: https://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7435&start=30#p213989

Last offseason Matthew Boyd, who is two years younger than James Paxton, signed a one-year, $5.2 million contract with the San Francisco Giants, taking a pay cut after the Detroit Tigers non-tendered the lefthander coming off an injury-shortened 2021 season of a 3.89 ERA in 15 starts. The Giants knew Boyd would not be available on Opening Day and at the trade deadline traded an unused Boyd to the Seattle Mariners, who deployed Boyd as a reliever. Boyd is now a free agent and might prefer a team with multiple openings in its starting rotation. Or not.

That's why Chris Archer provided the closest comp.

Idiom: Throw good money after bad. The Seattle Mariners in 2021 paid James Paxton $8.25 million to pitch 1.1 innings at a 6.75 ERA. The Boston Red Sox turned around and guaranteed Paxton $10 million in 2022 when the lefthander pitched no MLB innings. Paxton remains well-regarded in Seattle as a former MLB player but his active days may be over.

FWIW James Paxton has expressed his support for the MLBPA:

Last offseason righthander Chris Archer, who is the same age as James Paxton, landed a one-year, $3.5 million contract. Archer had pitched only 19.1 MLB innings over the two previous seasons. Archer had posted a career fWAR of 20.2 (bWAR 13.6) while Paxton has a career fWAR of 17.4 (bWAR 12.6). Other comparable one-year contracts for starting pitchers last offseason:* Drew Smyly $4.25 million Martin Perez $4 million Rich Hill $5 million Dylan Bundy $5 million * according to MLB Trade Rumors Transaction Tracker: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/transactiontracker

No argument with that point.

James Paxton, who turns 34 years old next weekend, has pitched 21.2 innings over the last three MLB seasons (20.1 in 2020, 1.1 in 2021 and 0 in 2022)* As a point of reference, the durable Rick Porcello, who is the same age as the fragile Paxton, has pitched 59 MLB innings over that period. From a strictly financial standpoint, Paxton should exercise a $4 million player option. However, Paxton may prefer to try out for a contender. * this year in the rookie-level Florida Complex League, Paxton recorded two outs before exiting with a lat injury

Brock Holt, the Red Sox representative at the 2015 All Star Game, has announced his retirement: https://www.instagram.com/reel/CkOWqTNLXbZ/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=de86e132-b265-49ab-b3b6-96f2a99ef1c9 The Red Sox released Holt six days after hiring Chaim Bloom to be chief baseball officer. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/holtbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral#all_transactions_other

FWIW Xander Bogaerts is a year younger than Robinson Cano was in December 2013 when the Seattle Mariners signed Cano to a 10-year, $240 million contract. At the time Cano had posted 35.8 fWAR in 1,374 games with the Yankees while Bogaerts has posted 34.2 fWAR in 1,264 games with the Red Sox. Interesting comp of middle infielders from the American League East.

In the same piece at The Athletic Bowden lists the Mariners as the best fit for shortstop Xander Bogaerts: An excerpt: Bowden projects Bogaerts with a seven-year, $196 million contract.