harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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Would a projection be realistic if it fell 50-75 points lower than those from the established publicly available services? Reliance on those services helps avoid the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
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Who is cherry-picking in this thread? A first post cited Rafael Devers’ career OPS and his significantly higher OPS over the past two seasons. Not all agree. The ZiPS projection of an .887 OPS is higher than the OPS projections from FanGraphs, Steamer and Marcel.
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Corrected. Thank you.
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FanGraphs, Steamer, ZiPS and Marcel are likely familiar with the “bell curve into prime years” in projecting Rafael Devers with 2023 OPS of .871, .854, .888 and .851, respectively. Nothing wrong with optimism … or an optimistic thread.
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Rafael Devers has a career OPS+ of .854, including an OPS+ of .885 over the past two seasons. Is this a realistic thread?
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Seattle returns seven starters who made multiple starts last season without being sidelined with an injury. All seven pitchers are at least two years younger than Chris Sale, James Paxton and Corey Kluber. The Mariner staff should not rely on continued health but it should be an interesting season.
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ZiPS currently projects the Red Sox with a last-place finish in the AL East: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-start-of-spring-zips-projected-standings-american-league/
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Well stated, Bellhorn04.
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Calm questioning critique is good. Vitriolic personal attacks are not. IMHO
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Perhaps a bit of both. FanGraphs projects regression for, among others, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Cal Raleigh in their age 26, 25 and 26 seasons after the trio posted fWAR of 3.2, 3.0 and 4.2 last year (the latter two in partial MLB seasons).
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The latest FanGraphs WAR projections have the Red Sox fourth in the American League East, just ahead of the Seattle Mariners, who are projected fourth in the American League West: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=9 In the projections the Red Sox edge over the Mariners comes entirely in projected pitching WAR. Surprising.
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The Red Sox offseason has been puzzling. No one has been blamed but this “realistic” thread invites responses to the posted optimism.
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FWIW Roster Resource lists Nick Pivetta as the No. 3 starter for the Red Sox: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox Other projections have Pivetta as the No. 3 or No. 2 starter for the Sox: https://soxprospects.com/future.htm https://sports.yahoo.com/red-sox-2023-opening-day-175000054.html https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/red-sox-2023-opening-day-roster-projection-lineup-rotation-and-bullpen By how much, if at all, will 26-year-old Garrett Whitlock exceed the 82.1 innings the righthander tossed last year across three levels? Whitlock made only nine starts with his remaining work coming out of the bullpen.
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Many teams have up to 15 prospective starters of the Chris Murphy/Josh Winckowski promise.
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On The Athletic's Top 100 prospect list Keith Law ranks Marcelo Mayer No. 11, Ceddanne Rafaela No. 37, Triston Casas No. 40 and Miguel Bleis No. 72: https://theathletic.com/4132943/2023/01/30/top-100-mlb-prospects-2023-keith-law/?source=pulsenewsletter&campaign=6026672 Subscription required.
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Indeed. Justus Sheffield was the centerpiece of Seattle's trade of James Paxton to the Yankees in November 2018. Last November the Mariners traded Erik Swanson, a lesser piece in the Paxton trade, to Toronto for one year of outfielder Teoscar Hernandez.
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Justus Sheffield cleared waivers and was outrighted to Seattle’s Triple A Tacoma roster.
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The trick would be to find a player with negative trade value who would not require a slot on the 40-man roster. Does that player exist?
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Chaim Bloom talks about the decision to designate Matt Barnes for assignment: https://nesn.com/2023/01/chaim-bloom-explains-difficult-decision-for-red-sox-to-dfa-matt-barnes/
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FWIW Baseball Trade Values assign Matt Barnes a negative trade value of $7.8 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/7632/ Perhaps the Red Sox can find a trade of bad contracts.
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What do the departures of Matt Barnes and Josh Taylor mean for the Red Sox bullpen?
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Matt Barnes is owed $8.375 million this year so a trade might be tough to negotiate. The Barnes extension was a "highway robbery steal": . https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20141-Barnes-extended?p=1401762&viewfull=1#post1401762
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On second thought, perhaps the Royals did not have a dire need for a lefthanded reliever with Aroldis Chapman and Amir Garrett already in the bullpen.
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The Kansas City Royals needed a lefthanded reliever after losing Gabe Speier to the Seattle Mariners on waivers in November. FanGraphs projects Aldalberto Mondesi with 1.2 WAR and a wRC+ of 84 in 117 games this year: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/adalberto-mondesi/13769/stats?position=SS Mondesi will be paid $3.045 million in his final year of team control.
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It takes only two suitors to keep the bidding going: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/which-teams-make-the-most-sense-for-elvis-andrus.htmlAdalberto Mondesí Adalberto Mondesí it is!