harmony

In light of the near-perfect game today by Atlanta righthander Julio Teheran, I thought I would compare the relative merits of the 25-year-old starter and top Red Sox prospect Yoan Moncada. In 2012 Teheran was a Top 5 prospect when he was four months older than Moncada was this year when Moncada was a Top 5 to 7 prospect, according to rankings at Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. Teheran made his MLB debut at age 20, 100 days, while Moncada at age 21, 23 days, has yet to play above the High A level. In February 2014 the Braves signed Teheran to a six-year, $32.4 million contract with a 2020 option for a seventh year at a net $11 million. In February 2015, the Red Sox signed Moncada to a $31.5 million bonus (and incurred a penalty of a similar amount). The Red Sox reportedly are paying out the bonus in three annual installments. Moncada would remain under team control through 2023 if the Sox call him up for good in midseason 2017. Barring Super Two status, Moncada would have three years at the league minimum and three arbitration seasons. Teheran is a somewhat established commodity while Moncada is the promising but unproven prospect that Teheran once was. I suspect the Atlanta Braves would not trade Teheran straight up for Moncada in a starting-pitcher market that may overheat if it has not already.

I was listening to the Seattle radio broadcast on Saturday and the Mariner broadcasters were noting -- not complaining, but noting -- that the homeplate umpire called balls on two of Adrian Sampson's pitches in the middle of the strike zone. In the sixth inning today, the first two pitches to Jackie Bradley were strikes, according to MLB.com Gameday, but the umpire called each a ball. The calls did not lead to Red Sox runs. Today's umpires probably are no worse at calling balls and strikes than were their predecessors over the past century-plus, but modern technology gives fans more ammunition to complain.

Why would the Brewers take on $25 million more in obligations to trade a productive player for four disappointments? Under the fWAR conversion, Ryan Braun has been valued at $30.6 million since the start of the 2015 season. Over the same period, Pablo Sandoval has been valued at a negative $17.4 million, Rusney Castillo $4.9 million, Henry Owens $2.8 million and Brian Johnson $100,000. Braun barely earns more than Sandoval over the next three seasons. Milwaukee should not be a dumping ground. I assume you were joking.

I can understand why a Red Sox fan would be pleased with the selection of Jason Groome but I questioned the suggestions that the lefthander would be in Boston "in 2-4 years." I humbly provided the MLB experience of all high school pitchers taken in the previous four MLB drafts. Groome faces long odds of pitching at the MLB level within four years. But again I understand why a Red Sox fan would be pleased with the Groome pick just as this Seattle fan is pleased with the Mariners' selection of college outfielder Kyle Lewis with the preceding pick at No. 11. As Groome dropped from No. 1 in the MLB.com draft projection to the No. 12 pick, Lewis dropped from No. 3 to the No. 11 pick: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=draft Whereas Groome dropped in part because of signability issues, Lewis apparently had no signability issues, inking at slot value and taking batting practice at Safeco Field before Saturday evening's game. Perhaps Lewis dropped because of talent issues, but Lewis, who succeeded Andrew Benintendi as Baseball America's College Player of the Year, still drew rave reviews on draft day. Prospect guru Jim Callis of MLB.com wrote: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/183086774/mlb-draft-pick-by-pick-selections-analysis The Red Sox face an interesting task of signing Groome, who significantly increased his leverage by committing to a junior college instead of to Vanderbilt. Groome will demand top dollar that will far exceed the slot amount at No. 12. If the Sox don't meet his demands Groome will play a year at the junior college and return to next year's draft. If the Red Sox meet his demands the Sox will need to reduce their offers to other draft picks or face substantial penalties. I don't doubt that teams with higher draft picks were scared off by Groome's anticipated demands and his option to re-enter next year's draft. I offer this not because I think Seattle drafted a better player than Boston did. I offer this because although I am pleased with the Mariners' pick I am not making any outlandish projections. Let's hope that someday Groome and Lewis are teammates on the American League All Star Team ... but that's a hope, not a projection.

Fans naturally get excited about their team's draft picks and prospects but the statistics suggest that only a minority become productive MLB players. Four years from now we should judge the progression of Jason Groome (and the four high school pitchers taken ahead on the lefthander in this year's draft).

http://highschoolsports.nj.com/news/article/7832549342102810772/has-jason-groome-fallen-out-of-the-top-5-picks-in-the-mlb-draft/

None of the high school pitchers taken in the first rounds of the 2013, 2014 and 2015 drafts has made an MLB appearance to date. Jose Berrios and Lance McCullers are the only high school pitchers from the first round of the 2012 draft who have made MLB debuts. We should temper our expectations for Jason Groome, who was passed over by 11 clubs for a variety of reasons (some not talent-related).

Late last month in Seattle, the Minnesota Twins swept the Mariners, who at 33-26 are currently only one game behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card standings (the Mariners also have been swept at home by the Angels and the Athletics, two more clubs with losing records). Baseball is a funny game. The Red Sox are better than the Twins yet I would be surprised if the Sox sweep ... but anything is possible.

We don't know whether Henry Owens, Brian Johnson and/or Michael Kopech were in play in negotiations, if the Red Sox took part in negotiations at all. The body of stats might be comparable, but Owens. Johnson and Kopech each have recent concerns that Erik Johnson may lack. I suspect the Padres discussed a James Shields trade with many clubs and decided that the White Sox deal was the best ... and perhaps the Red Sox were neither interested in Shields nor willing to include Owens, Johnson or Kopech in a package. A Sox rotation of David Price, Rick Porcello, Steven Wright, Eduardo Rodriguez and Clay Buchholz/Joe Kelly might be enough despite the likely frustrations.

The Red Sox remain in good shape in their bid for a postseason berth: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx#ALE

San Diego is not a dumping ground. With his negative 0.2 fWAR and negative 0.7 bWAR this year and about $1.8 million left on his 2016 salary, Joe Kelly comes with two and 2/3 years of team control. I suspect the Padres would rather take their chances with Erik Johnson and his five and 2/3 years of team control.

Red Sox right fielder Jose Tartabull started that game-ending double play: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHA/CHA196708271.shtml Scroll to the bottom. Carl Yastrzemski hit two homers en route to a share of the 1967 American League home run title with my childhood hero, Harmon Killianbrew. The Sox closed out the season with two wins over my Minnesota Twins to erase a one-game deficit and claim the AL crown.

Perhaps but I suspect the Padres wanted an immediate replacement for James Shields in the San Diego rotation. Brian Johnson and Henry Owens may be too broken right now to fill that role. Or not.

I suspect a comparable Red Sox offer would have been Matt Barnes and 17-year-old outfield prospect Albert Guaimaro, whom the Sox signed out of Venezuela last July. However, the Padres probably wanted a pitcher who could immediately replace James Shields in their rotation. Barnes would be unlikely to make a prompt transition from the bullpen to a starting rotation. Although they're different types of righthanders, Matt Barnes and Erik Johnson are similar in age, size, MLB service, career fWAR, and college, draft and prospect-ranking pedigree.

Although they're different types of righthanders, Matt Barnes and Erik Johnson are similar in age, size, MLB service, and college, draft and prospect-ranking pedigree.

It may come down to what team offers the best "middling prospects." I suspect the Padres would prefer quality prospects over salary relief but will likely look at a combination of both.

Melvin Upton has been valued at 2.5 fWAR ($20.2 million) in 143 games since the start of the 2015 season. Upton has far more value than Rusney Castillo, whose costly contract should be of no interest to the San Diego Padres.

Here is a link to the box score and play-by-play: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN199106280.shtml

The MLS season overlaps with the MLB season. The atmosphere is incredible at the home games of the reigning MLS champion Portland Timbers. Soccer is the talk of the lunchroom at work in Portland. No one talks about baseball anymore.

I suspect the Padres would gladly take Melvin Upton out of the equation if the Red Sox would remove Rusney Castillo.

Perhaps you're underrating Melvin Upton, who has been valued at 2.6 fWAR ($20.3 million) in 142 games over the last two seasons. The Padres could be taking a significant step down to a disappointing Rusney Castillo, who over more years is owed more money as he approaches his 29th birthday next month. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5015&position=OF#value

To be precise, Rich Hill signed with Oakland on November 20, David Price signed with Boston on December 4 and the Red Sox traded Wade Miley on December 7. I don't doubt the Red Sox wanted to hold off until their pursuit of Price was completed. I'm still surprised that three days after the Price signing the Sox traded away their 2015 leader in starts, innings and wins.

Seattle is 8-3 in Wade Miley's 11 starts despite the lefthander's dismal 5.85 ERA. Whatever.

For what it's worth, last year the Seattle Sounders of Major League Soccer had an average attendance of 44,247 while the Seattle Mariners this year are averaging 26,637 per game. The Portland Timbers and Vancouver Whitecaps filled their stadiums last year with averages of 21,144 and 20,408, respectively. The New England Revolution averaged 16,681 last year.

After trailing 12-2 the Mariners scored five runs in the sixth inning and nine more with two outs in the seventh to take a 16-12 lead. The Padres narrowed the score to 16-13 in the bottom of the seventh.