harmony
-
Posts
6,313 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Boston Red Sox Videos
2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking
Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
News
2026 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by harmony
-
Did Rafael Devers improve between his age 20 and age 21 seasons? I will not be surprised if Devers improves but wide range of outcomes are possible. I offered the comparison to show the remarkable similarities (despite the age difference). I initially drew no conclusion but when prompted I wrote that I would prefer Rafael Devers over Will Middlebrooks after their first two respectively MLB seasons.
-
A fearless prognosticator is a foolish prognosticator.:)
-
That's one of the reasons I would prefer Rafael Devers over Will Middlebrooks (at the end of their respective second MLB seasons).
-
I doubt the Red Sox will place Rafael Devers on the shelf for three years to make an age-appropriate comparison. Devers will sink or swim as a young player who posted 0.8 fWAR and a wRC+ of 110 in 58 games of his age 20 season and 1.0 fWAR and a wRC+ of 90 in 121 games of his age 21 season. Expectations should be tempered as Devers could get better, worse or remain about the same.
-
Steamer has an optimistic 2019 projection for Rafael Devers. After he posted 1.7 fWAR in his first 730 plate appearances over 179 games, Devers is projected with 2.5 WAR, a .270/.328/.476/.804 line and a wRC+ of 111 in 522 plate appearances over 130 games in 2019: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17350&position=3B Marcel is less bullish with a 2019 projection of a .257/.318/.451/.769 line in 469 plate appearances: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml
-
I would rather have Rafael Devers, although he remains under team control only through his age 26 season, perhaps short of the conventional prime years. Their strikeout rates in their first two seasons were remarkably similar: each fell one strikeout short of averaging precisely one strikeout per game.
-
Compare the cumulative slash lines for these Red Sox third basemen at the end of their second MLB seasons: WM 169 G, 660 PA, .254/.294/.462/.756, 168 SO, OPS+ 102 RD 179 G, 730 PA, .254/.311/.449/.760, 178 SO, OPS+ 100
-
https://www.pinstripealley.com/2018/12/20/18150976/yankees-red-sox-david-robertson-rivalry-rumors
-
Jason Varitek's wife apparently teased in a tweet within the last hour:
-
It's clear from the rankings that Steamer selected a single closer for each team to the exclusion of other candidates. I like that Steamer projects 34 saves for newly acquired Seattle reliever Anthony Swarzak and only 33 saves for Edwin Diaz, who was traded with Robinson Cano for Swarzak and others. If I were a betting person (I'm not), I would take the under on the saves projections for Ryan Brasier and Swarzak.:)
-
For what it's worth, Steamer projects Ryan Brasier with 34 saves in 2019: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=8,d Good news for my fantasy team.:)
-
En route to an ERA of 6.50, Erasmo Ramirez posted a quality start in only one of his 10 starts in 2018: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=ramirer02&t=p&year=2018
-
But under a rules change, Rusney Castillo's salary would still count for luxury tax purposes if he were added to the 40-man roster and then later dropped: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/01/boston_red_soxs_rusney_castill_13.html
-
The Red Sox reportedly sign 31-year-old righthander Zach Putnam to a minor league contract:
-
Steamer and other pubically available systems publish their projections, which can be compared and contrasted for validity and reliability year to year. Unlike the anonymous internet poster who can virtually bury his or her projections.
-
Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each outfielder, projects Rusney Castillo with a 2019 WAR of 0.6: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d I question whether Castillo would be a regular in many outfields.
-
Little known? Erasmo Ramirez and Nick Franklin were the key characters in this quirky book about the 2010 Clinton LumberKings of the Class A Midwest League: https://www.npr.org/2013/05/09/180279940/farm-team-saga-class-a-hits-it-out-of-the-park I like the Ramirez signing for the Red Sox.
-
Problem solved: The Red Sox reportedly sign righthander Erasmo Ramirez to a minor league contract: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirer02.shtml
-
In 2017 Matt Moore's 1.0 fWAR was valued at $7.7 million: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1890&position=P#value
-
In his "bad" 2008-17 contract, Alex Rodriguez posted fWAR valued at $202.1 million, or 73.5 percent of the $275 million contract. In the first three years of his Boston contract David Price has posted fWAR valued at only $69.9 million, or 77.7 percent of his $90 million salary to date. Price will need to post fWAR valued at about $90 million over the final four years of his contract to attain 73.5 percent of his $217 million contract. Rodriguez helped the Yankees to a World Series title in the second year of that contract while Price helped the Red Sox to a World Series title in the third year of his contract. I suspect the contracts are similarly unattractive.
-
Robinson Cano signed his contract with Seattle in December 2013. In 2013 Billy Butler and Eric Young Jr. each posted 1.0 fWAR, valued by FanGraphs at $7.6 million and $7.1 million, respectively, due to rounding: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&page=4_30
-
This Seattle fan dislikes long-term contracts and was livid when the Mariners signed Robinson Cano to a 10-year contract in December 2013. Nevertheless Cano exceeded expectations with 20.7 fWAR, valued at $163.7 million, over his five seasons in Seattle. Cano's not to blame for the Mariners' postseason drought. David Price's World Series redemption does not compensate for his otherwise underwhelming performance. Bless those emotions that result in irrational valuations. I doubt the Price's World Series heroics enhanced his value any more than Mookie Betts' disappointing postseason production diminished his value.
-
FanGraphs separates out the fWAR and valuation for each year and it's clear that the system adjusts for the fluctuations in WAR value. For example, an fWAR was worth 7.94 when Mookie Betts posted 4.8 fWAR in 2015, 8.02 when he posted 8.2 fWAR in 2016, 8.08 when he posted 5.3 fWAR in 2017 and 7.99 when he posted 10.4 fWAR this year: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13611&position=OF#value
-
I suspect the Red Sox were expecting David Price to post an annual 5.1 fWAR that the lefthander averaged in the six previous seasons instead of the 2.9 fWAR Price has averaged in three seasons with the Sox. One player dropped off more than the other.
-
With only 8.7 fWAR, valued at $69.9 million (while being paid $90 million), in the first three years of his seven-year contract, David Price is not on pace to even meet the 20.7 fWAR, valued at $163.7 million, that Robinson Cano has already posted in the first five years of his contract. Cano could retire tomorrow and probably still outproduce what Price will post over seven years. Steamer projects 2019 WAR of 3.1 for Price and 3.5 for Cano. Injury concerns have hounded Price more than Cano. Cano has not fallen off much from the cited peak five years in New York, but I would note that Cano posted an OPS+ of 126 in nine seasons with the Yankees and an OPS+ of 129 in five seasons with the Mariners.