harmony

In his "bad" 2008-17 contract, Alex Rodriguez posted fWAR valued at $202.1 million, or 73.5 percent of the $275 million contract. In the first three years of his Boston contract David Price has posted fWAR valued at only $69.9 million, or 77.7 percent of his $90 million salary to date. Price will need to post fWAR valued at about $90 million over the final four years of his contract to attain 73.5 percent of his $217 million contract. Rodriguez helped the Yankees to a World Series title in the second year of that contract while Price helped the Red Sox to a World Series title in the third year of his contract. I suspect the contracts are similarly unattractive.

Robinson Cano signed his contract with Seattle in December 2013. In 2013 Billy Butler and Eric Young Jr. each posted 1.0 fWAR, valued by FanGraphs at $7.6 million and $7.1 million, respectively, due to rounding: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&page=4_30

This Seattle fan dislikes long-term contracts and was livid when the Mariners signed Robinson Cano to a 10-year contract in December 2013. Nevertheless Cano exceeded expectations with 20.7 fWAR, valued at $163.7 million, over his five seasons in Seattle. Cano's not to blame for the Mariners' postseason drought. David Price's World Series redemption does not compensate for his otherwise underwhelming performance. Bless those emotions that result in irrational valuations. I doubt the Price's World Series heroics enhanced his value any more than Mookie Betts' disappointing postseason production diminished his value.

FanGraphs separates out the fWAR and valuation for each year and it's clear that the system adjusts for the fluctuations in WAR value. For example, an fWAR was worth 7.94 when Mookie Betts posted 4.8 fWAR in 2015, 8.02 when he posted 8.2 fWAR in 2016, 8.08 when he posted 5.3 fWAR in 2017 and 7.99 when he posted 10.4 fWAR this year: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13611&position=OF#value

I suspect the Red Sox were expecting David Price to post an annual 5.1 fWAR that the lefthander averaged in the six previous seasons instead of the 2.9 fWAR Price has averaged in three seasons with the Sox. One player dropped off more than the other.

With only 8.7 fWAR, valued at $69.9 million (while being paid $90 million), in the first three years of his seven-year contract, David Price is not on pace to even meet the 20.7 fWAR, valued at $163.7 million, that Robinson Cano has already posted in the first five years of his contract. Cano could retire tomorrow and probably still outproduce what Price will post over seven years. Steamer projects 2019 WAR of 3.1 for Price and 3.5 for Cano. Injury concerns have hounded Price more than Cano. Cano has not fallen off much from the cited peak five years in New York, but I would note that Cano posted an OPS+ of 126 in nine seasons with the Yankees and an OPS+ of 129 in five seasons with the Mariners.

To be precise, Seattle paid Robinson Cano about $108 million over five years because of his unpaid 80-day suspension this season. When Cano signed his contract five years ago the $24 million annual salary was near the highest in baseball. This year 16 players earned a higher salary than Cano, who in only 80 games this season posted an fWAR higher than eight of those 16 players. Steamer currently projects Cano with a 2019 WAR of 3.5, which this year was valued at about $28 million. Cano's contract has five years and $120 million left (with the Mariners paying $20 million of that). David Price has four years and $127 million left after the lefthander posted only 8.7 fWAR, valued at $69.9 million, over the first three years of the contract. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2018&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Steamer currently projects Price with a 2019 WAR of 3.1, which this year was valued around $24 million. Cano never caught a sniff of the postseason with the Mariners while Price was a World Series hero but moonslav59 perhaps confuses which contract has been "not too good, so far" and which one has been "decent, so far."

True. For what it's worth, the three Red Sox catchers have a combined 15 MLB seasons (including partial seasons) but only one has a season with more than 322 plate appearances (Christian Vazquez 345 in 2017). Each has only one season with a batting average above .270 and each has a career batting average below .260. For the record: I am not a big fan of catcher Omar Narvaez.

Omar Narvaez? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/narvaom01.shtml

Steamer projects 2019 WAR of 0.1 in 31 games for Blake Swihart and 0.0 in 18 innings for Brian Johnson. Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for each starting pitcher and 450 plate appearances for each catcher, projects 2019 WAR of 0.7 for Johnson and 0.2 for Swihart. Steamer projects Zach Wheeler with 2.7 WAR in 171 innings while Steamer600 projects 2.8 WAR. Steamer600 projects the following 2019 WAR for Met catchers: Travis d'Arnaud 1.9, Kevin Plawecki 1.8, Patrick Mazeika 1.4 and Tomas Nido 0.7. https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=25&lg=all&players=0 Steamer600 projects 2019 WAR of 1.4 for Christian Vazquez and 0.8 for Sandy Leon.

As someone whose work has value, I respect copyright laws and other protections of intellectual property. And I don't have a subscription to The Athletic.

At least the offseason is fun.

This much is free:

More from Chad Jennings at The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/708795/2018/12/11/financial-pressures-loom-so-yes-red-sox-will-consider-trades-of-key-players/

I thought Red Sox fans might enjoy these video highlights of the 20-inning Red Sox win over the Seattle Pilots in 1969: And another Red Sox/Pilot game from 1969: Enjoy.

The Red Sox reportedly are willing to talk about trades of Rick Porcello, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr.:

Blake Swihart has an OPS+ of 82 in 597 MLB plate appearances, including an OPS+ of 66 in 214 plate appearances over the past two seasons: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml With his career wRC+ of 83, Steamer projects Swihart with a 2019 wRC+ of 75: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

The Red Sox missed out on another Venezuelan catcher, switch-hitting Jose Lobaton, who this week signed a minor league contract with the Seattle Mariners: :)

For what it's worth, Steamer has the following 2019 projections for Red Sox starters: Chris Sale, 32 GS, 202 IP, 2.76 ERA, 6.6 WAR David Price, 32 GS, 194 IP, 3.94 ERA, 3.5 WAR Nathan Eovaldi, 29 GS, 152 IP, 3.89 ERA, 2.8 WAR Rick Porcello, 32 GS, 191 IP, 4.24 ERA, 2.6 WAR Eduardo Rodriguez, 19 GS, 136 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.9 WAR https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

Not that this Seattle fan particularly cares either.

In an ideal world a good trade benefits each side. This could be a good trade. Thoughts shared elsewhere: Isolated on Edwin Diaz, Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak, the reported blockbuster represents a classic sell-high, buy-low for the Seattle Mariners. This year Diaz posted 3.5 fWAR, Bruce 0.1 fWAR and Swarzak a negative 0.4 fWAR. In 2017 Diaz posted 1.0 fWAR, Bruce 2.6 fWAR and Swarzak 2.2 fWAR. Bruce and Swarzak are owed a combined $37 million: Bruce $29 million over two years and Swarzak $8 million in 2019 only. In 2017 Bruce and Swarzak combined for 4.8 fWAR, valued at $38.1 million, in a single season. Given their ages, Diaz and the others may be on different trajectories. Nevertheless Bruce and Swarzak may be more than sunken costs for the Mariners.

Zane Smith, whom I covered as a small-town sportswriter when the lefthander was in high school: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithza01.shtml Smith posted a negative 0.6 bWAR (but a 2.4 fWAR) in his only season with the Red Sox. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1012218&position=P

When I was an Iowa high schooler in the early 1970s we had a girls basketball star named Fonda Dicks: https://sites.google.com/site/iahsaasports/iowa-high-schools/current-high-schools/moravia/moravia-girls-basketball

Robinson Cano is owed $120 million over five years, Jay Bruce $29 million over two years and Anthony Swarzak $8 million over one year. To get the net annual cost of Cano down to $5 million to $10 million, the Mariners would need to send the Mets between $33 million and $58 million. I don't see that happening.