harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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For what it's worth, Steamer projects that Luke Voit and Greg Bird will combine for 1.9 fWAR in 2019: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=9&lg=all&players=0 … while Steve Pearce and Mitch Moreland combine for 1.7 fWAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0
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Only one negative regression? That's optimistic. I'll take the over.
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You’re not a Seattle Mariner fan. Not that you want to be.😁
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To be precise, the cost-conscious Tampa Bay Rays traded two-plus years of Alex Colome and four months of Denard Span (who had a net $8 million remaining on his contract) to Seattle for Andrew Moore and Tommy Romero. Despite six years of team control, Moore was a post-prospect who had recorded five quality MLB starts the previous season. Romero posted a 2.95 ERA in 25 starts last year as a 20-year-old in Single A. The more recent trade of Colome netted four years of catcher Omar Narvaez, who posted 2.1 fWAR last year in only 97 games. Bobby Dalbec and Darwinzon Hernandez are the sixth- and seventh-ranked* prospects in a bottom-third farm system. They have limited trade value. * according to MLB.com Prospect Watch. SoxProspects rank Hernandez No. 4 and Dalbec No. 5.
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How do Bobby Dalbec and Darwinzon Hernandez land a "relief stud"?
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Clearly not. Last year the Red Sox finished a distant, distant last in fWAR from the catcher position: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 ... 22nd in fWAR at second base: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 ... and 27th in fWAR from third base: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Nevertheless the Red Sox were clearly superior enough at other positions to coast to a World Series title.
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A Milwaukee blogger eyes Xander Bogaerts: https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/1/2/18165287/milwaukee-brewers-trade-target-xander-bogaerts-boston-red-sox
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It’s not a big deal but Seattle is nearly 800 miles closer to Tokyo than San Diego is. I suspect Yusei Kikuchi consulted with many Japanese players about their experience in Seattle. At the top of the list might be Ichiro, who now works in the Mariner front office. This Seattle fan is posting from San Diego today.
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Perhaps this post epitomizes the New York attitude that Yusei Kikuchi wants to avoid. Or not.😀
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The Mariners aren’t tanking. The media have mischaracterized the strategy as rebuilding. The situation reminds me of 2000 after the Mariners lost Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez within a two-year period. The Mariners may exceed low expectations in 2019 ... or not.
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I doubt Wade Miley will settle for a minor league contract this offseason.
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Milwaukee reliever Corey Knebel is a three-years-younger former All Star with a 0.90 ERA and 0.50 WHIP in the postseason. In his only remaining year of team control Holt will likely fall between the negative 0.9 fWAR he posted in 2017 and the 1.4 fWAR he posted in 2018. In his first arbitration season Knebel will likely fall between the 2.7 fWAR he posted in 2017 and the 1.0 fWAR he posted in 2018. The NL Central champion Brewers overcame a shaky starting rotation with a stellar bullpen. I doubt Milwaukee will break that up.
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Years of team control aside, I question whether a utility player would land a closer from a division champion that returns most key players from a 96-win club. https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-milwaukee-brewers/
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Here is an interesting look at WAR, run differential and won/loss records: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins
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Blake Swihart and Brian Johnson may not have great value but I could see the Orioles having some interest in four years of Swihart with a projected 2019 salary of $1.1 million and five years of Johnson.
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Whom could the Red Sox offer for Baltimore reliever Mychal Givens, who remains under team control for three seasons with a projected 2019 salary of $2 million? Steamer projects the 28-year-old Givens, whose fastball averages 95 mph, with 29 saves in 2019 despite relieving for the woeful Orioles: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10430&position=P https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/givenmy01.shtml Two sources currently list Givens as the Baltimore closer: http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=bal https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-baltimore-orioles Likewise, Arizona closer Archie Bradley remains under team control for three seasons with a projected 2019 salary of $2 million. Steamer projects the 26-year-old Bradley with 25 saves in 2019: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12918&position=P The Diamondbacks could turn the closer duties over to 35-year-old Yoshihisa Hirano. Of course, Los Angeles Angel reliever Ty Buttrey could fit the bill: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14719&position=P
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The CBS Sports fantasy baseball website projects Red Sox reliever Ryan Brasier with a 1.56 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 35 saves in 2019. That's optimistic. FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Brasier with 28 and 34 saves, respectively, each with a 3.93 ERA: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5615&position=P Marcel projects Brasier with a 3.43 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and only one save: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brasiry01.shtml
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To be precise, David Price is 33 years old, Steven Wright 34 and Ryan Brasier 31 (Price and Brazier share an August 26 birthday while Wright celebrates four days later). Rick Porcello turns 30 years old this week and Chris Sale turns 30 in March.
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Did Rafael Devers improve between his age 20 and age 21 seasons? I will not be surprised if Devers improves but wide range of outcomes are possible. I offered the comparison to show the remarkable similarities (despite the age difference). I initially drew no conclusion but when prompted I wrote that I would prefer Rafael Devers over Will Middlebrooks after their first two respectively MLB seasons.
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A fearless prognosticator is a foolish prognosticator.:)
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That's one of the reasons I would prefer Rafael Devers over Will Middlebrooks (at the end of their respective second MLB seasons).
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I doubt the Red Sox will place Rafael Devers on the shelf for three years to make an age-appropriate comparison. Devers will sink or swim as a young player who posted 0.8 fWAR and a wRC+ of 110 in 58 games of his age 20 season and 1.0 fWAR and a wRC+ of 90 in 121 games of his age 21 season. Expectations should be tempered as Devers could get better, worse or remain about the same.
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Steamer has an optimistic 2019 projection for Rafael Devers. After he posted 1.7 fWAR in his first 730 plate appearances over 179 games, Devers is projected with 2.5 WAR, a .270/.328/.476/.804 line and a wRC+ of 111 in 522 plate appearances over 130 games in 2019: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17350&position=3B Marcel is less bullish with a 2019 projection of a .257/.318/.451/.769 line in 469 plate appearances: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml
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I would rather have Rafael Devers, although he remains under team control only through his age 26 season, perhaps short of the conventional prime years. Their strikeout rates in their first two seasons were remarkably similar: each fell one strikeout short of averaging precisely one strikeout per game.
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Compare the cumulative slash lines for these Red Sox third basemen at the end of their second MLB seasons: WM 169 G, 660 PA, .254/.294/.462/.756, 168 SO, OPS+ 102 RD 179 G, 730 PA, .254/.311/.449/.760, 178 SO, OPS+ 100