harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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The Rays already have a better defensive catcher in Mike Zunino: http://fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp ... who in last year’s down season posted 1.5 fWAR to the negative 0.8 fWAR posted by Christian Vazquez. Zunino’s 2017 fWAR of 3.7 nearly triples the 1.3 career fWAR of Vazquez, who is older than Zunino.
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FanGraphs posts its Red Sox prospect list: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-26-prospects-boston-red-sox/
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Madison Bumgarner is a 29-year-old with a one-year commitment at a $12 million salary while Dallas Keuchel is a 31-year-old with a projected four-year, $82 million contract. Risks abound.
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The Rays might be reluctant to trade five years of lefthander Jose Alvarado and take on salary in the form of a three-year commitment to a backup catcher.
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Don't shortchange the Seattle Mariners: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
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And conversely, if the Yankee first basemen outperform the Red Sox first-baggers, moonslav clearly wears the rose-colored glasses. I simply cited a source with no obvious bias.
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The debate of two fans with hometown biases.
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For what it's worth, Steamer projects that Luke Voit and Greg Bird will combine for 1.9 fWAR in 2019: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=9&lg=all&players=0 … while Steve Pearce and Mitch Moreland combine for 1.7 fWAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0
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Only one negative regression? That's optimistic. I'll take the over.
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You’re not a Seattle Mariner fan. Not that you want to be.😁
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To be precise, the cost-conscious Tampa Bay Rays traded two-plus years of Alex Colome and four months of Denard Span (who had a net $8 million remaining on his contract) to Seattle for Andrew Moore and Tommy Romero. Despite six years of team control, Moore was a post-prospect who had recorded five quality MLB starts the previous season. Romero posted a 2.95 ERA in 25 starts last year as a 20-year-old in Single A. The more recent trade of Colome netted four years of catcher Omar Narvaez, who posted 2.1 fWAR last year in only 97 games. Bobby Dalbec and Darwinzon Hernandez are the sixth- and seventh-ranked* prospects in a bottom-third farm system. They have limited trade value. * according to MLB.com Prospect Watch. SoxProspects rank Hernandez No. 4 and Dalbec No. 5.
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How do Bobby Dalbec and Darwinzon Hernandez land a "relief stud"?
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Clearly not. Last year the Red Sox finished a distant, distant last in fWAR from the catcher position: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 ... 22nd in fWAR at second base: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 ... and 27th in fWAR from third base: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Nevertheless the Red Sox were clearly superior enough at other positions to coast to a World Series title.
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A Milwaukee blogger eyes Xander Bogaerts: https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/1/2/18165287/milwaukee-brewers-trade-target-xander-bogaerts-boston-red-sox
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It’s not a big deal but Seattle is nearly 800 miles closer to Tokyo than San Diego is. I suspect Yusei Kikuchi consulted with many Japanese players about their experience in Seattle. At the top of the list might be Ichiro, who now works in the Mariner front office. This Seattle fan is posting from San Diego today.
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Perhaps this post epitomizes the New York attitude that Yusei Kikuchi wants to avoid. Or not.😀
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The Mariners aren’t tanking. The media have mischaracterized the strategy as rebuilding. The situation reminds me of 2000 after the Mariners lost Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez within a two-year period. The Mariners may exceed low expectations in 2019 ... or not.
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I doubt Wade Miley will settle for a minor league contract this offseason.
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Milwaukee reliever Corey Knebel is a three-years-younger former All Star with a 0.90 ERA and 0.50 WHIP in the postseason. In his only remaining year of team control Holt will likely fall between the negative 0.9 fWAR he posted in 2017 and the 1.4 fWAR he posted in 2018. In his first arbitration season Knebel will likely fall between the 2.7 fWAR he posted in 2017 and the 1.0 fWAR he posted in 2018. The NL Central champion Brewers overcame a shaky starting rotation with a stellar bullpen. I doubt Milwaukee will break that up.
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Years of team control aside, I question whether a utility player would land a closer from a division champion that returns most key players from a 96-win club. https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-milwaukee-brewers/
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Here is an interesting look at WAR, run differential and won/loss records: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins
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Blake Swihart and Brian Johnson may not have great value but I could see the Orioles having some interest in four years of Swihart with a projected 2019 salary of $1.1 million and five years of Johnson.
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Whom could the Red Sox offer for Baltimore reliever Mychal Givens, who remains under team control for three seasons with a projected 2019 salary of $2 million? Steamer projects the 28-year-old Givens, whose fastball averages 95 mph, with 29 saves in 2019 despite relieving for the woeful Orioles: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10430&position=P https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/givenmy01.shtml Two sources currently list Givens as the Baltimore closer: http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=bal https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-baltimore-orioles Likewise, Arizona closer Archie Bradley remains under team control for three seasons with a projected 2019 salary of $2 million. Steamer projects the 26-year-old Bradley with 25 saves in 2019: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12918&position=P The Diamondbacks could turn the closer duties over to 35-year-old Yoshihisa Hirano. Of course, Los Angeles Angel reliever Ty Buttrey could fit the bill: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14719&position=P
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The CBS Sports fantasy baseball website projects Red Sox reliever Ryan Brasier with a 1.56 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 35 saves in 2019. That's optimistic. FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Brasier with 28 and 34 saves, respectively, each with a 3.93 ERA: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5615&position=P Marcel projects Brasier with a 3.43 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and only one save: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brasiry01.shtml
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To be precise, David Price is 33 years old, Steven Wright 34 and Ryan Brasier 31 (Price and Brazier share an August 26 birthday while Wright celebrates four days later). Rick Porcello turns 30 years old this week and Chris Sale turns 30 in March.