harmony

Years of team control aside, I question whether a utility player would land a closer from a division champion that returns most key players from a 96-win club. https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-milwaukee-brewers/

Here is an interesting look at WAR, run differential and won/loss records: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins

Blake Swihart and Brian Johnson may not have great value but I could see the Orioles having some interest in four years of Swihart with a projected 2019 salary of $1.1 million and five years of Johnson.

Whom could the Red Sox offer for Baltimore reliever Mychal Givens, who remains under team control for three seasons with a projected 2019 salary of $2 million? Steamer projects the 28-year-old Givens, whose fastball averages 95 mph, with 29 saves in 2019 despite relieving for the woeful Orioles: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10430&position=P https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/givenmy01.shtml Two sources currently list Givens as the Baltimore closer: http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=bal https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-baltimore-orioles Likewise, Arizona closer Archie Bradley remains under team control for three seasons with a projected 2019 salary of $2 million. Steamer projects the 26-year-old Bradley with 25 saves in 2019: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12918&position=P The Diamondbacks could turn the closer duties over to 35-year-old Yoshihisa Hirano. Of course, Los Angeles Angel reliever Ty Buttrey could fit the bill: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14719&position=P

The CBS Sports fantasy baseball website projects Red Sox reliever Ryan Brasier with a 1.56 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 35 saves in 2019. That's optimistic. FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Brasier with 28 and 34 saves, respectively, each with a 3.93 ERA: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5615&position=P Marcel projects Brasier with a 3.43 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and only one save: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brasiry01.shtml

To be precise, David Price is 33 years old, Steven Wright 34 and Ryan Brasier 31 (Price and Brazier share an August 26 birthday while Wright celebrates four days later). Rick Porcello turns 30 years old this week and Chris Sale turns 30 in March.

Did Rafael Devers improve between his age 20 and age 21 seasons? I will not be surprised if Devers improves but wide range of outcomes are possible. I offered the comparison to show the remarkable similarities (despite the age difference). I initially drew no conclusion but when prompted I wrote that I would prefer Rafael Devers over Will Middlebrooks after their first two respectively MLB seasons.

A fearless prognosticator is a foolish prognosticator.:)

That's one of the reasons I would prefer Rafael Devers over Will Middlebrooks (at the end of their respective second MLB seasons).

I doubt the Red Sox will place Rafael Devers on the shelf for three years to make an age-appropriate comparison. Devers will sink or swim as a young player who posted 0.8 fWAR and a wRC+ of 110 in 58 games of his age 20 season and 1.0 fWAR and a wRC+ of 90 in 121 games of his age 21 season. Expectations should be tempered as Devers could get better, worse or remain about the same.

Steamer has an optimistic 2019 projection for Rafael Devers. After he posted 1.7 fWAR in his first 730 plate appearances over 179 games, Devers is projected with 2.5 WAR, a .270/.328/.476/.804 line and a wRC+ of 111 in 522 plate appearances over 130 games in 2019: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17350&position=3B Marcel is less bullish with a 2019 projection of a .257/.318/.451/.769 line in 469 plate appearances: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml

I would rather have Rafael Devers, although he remains under team control only through his age 26 season, perhaps short of the conventional prime years. Their strikeout rates in their first two seasons were remarkably similar: each fell one strikeout short of averaging precisely one strikeout per game.

Compare the cumulative slash lines for these Red Sox third basemen at the end of their second MLB seasons: WM 169 G, 660 PA, .254/.294/.462/.756, 168 SO, OPS+ 102 RD 179 G, 730 PA, .254/.311/.449/.760, 178 SO, OPS+ 100

https://www.pinstripealley.com/2018/12/20/18150976/yankees-red-sox-david-robertson-rivalry-rumors

Jason Varitek's wife apparently teased in a tweet within the last hour:

It's clear from the rankings that Steamer selected a single closer for each team to the exclusion of other candidates. I like that Steamer projects 34 saves for newly acquired Seattle reliever Anthony Swarzak and only 33 saves for Edwin Diaz, who was traded with Robinson Cano for Swarzak and others. If I were a betting person (I'm not), I would take the under on the saves projections for Ryan Brasier and Swarzak.:)

For what it's worth, Steamer projects Ryan Brasier with 34 saves in 2019: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=8,d Good news for my fantasy team.:)

En route to an ERA of 6.50, Erasmo Ramirez posted a quality start in only one of his 10 starts in 2018: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=ramirer02&t=p&year=2018

But under a rules change, Rusney Castillo's salary would still count for luxury tax purposes if he were added to the 40-man roster and then later dropped: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/01/boston_red_soxs_rusney_castill_13.html

The Red Sox reportedly sign 31-year-old righthander Zach Putnam to a minor league contract:

Steamer and other pubically available systems publish their projections, which can be compared and contrasted for validity and reliability year to year. Unlike the anonymous internet poster who can virtually bury his or her projections.

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each outfielder, projects Rusney Castillo with a 2019 WAR of 0.6: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d I question whether Castillo would be a regular in many outfields.

Little known? Erasmo Ramirez and Nick Franklin were the key characters in this quirky book about the 2010 Clinton LumberKings of the Class A Midwest League: https://www.npr.org/2013/05/09/180279940/farm-team-saga-class-a-hits-it-out-of-the-park I like the Ramirez signing for the Red Sox.

Problem solved: The Red Sox reportedly sign righthander Erasmo Ramirez to a minor league contract: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirer02.shtml

In 2017 Matt Moore's 1.0 fWAR was valued at $7.7 million: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1890&position=P#value