harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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FanGraphs currently places the Red Sox postseason chances at 75.1 percent: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds ... while FiveThirtyEight places the Sox chances at 56 percent: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/
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The Red Sox were 16-11 (.593) in May, but only 2-5 against the Houston Astros and New York Yankees. Their remaining 14-6 record came against teams that on average are on pace for 70-win seasons. The Red Sox schedule so far has not been particularly difficult: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos ... with a combined 30 games remaining against the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, who each are currently at least 15 games above .500. A challenge awaits the Red Sox.
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In May the Red Sox are 16-10 (.615) against teams that collectively have a weighted* .481 winning percentage so far this year. * the six games agains the 37-20 Houston Astros are weighted three times as much as the two games against the 28-27 Colorado Rockies. The weighted opponents' winning percentage without the Astros games would be .429, or a 70-win pace for a 162-game season
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Of the nine blown saves, the Red Sox won two of those games (Matt Barnes vs. Tampa Bay on April 20 and Heath Hembree vs. Toronto on May 22). https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA201904200.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR201905220.shtml
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Wait ... it ain't over till it's over for the Seattle Mariners?
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The Red Sox remain a half game up on the Cleveland Guardians (but tied in the loss column) and tied overall with the Oakland Athletics. It should be an interesting race to the postseason.
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The Red Sox have had a relatively easy schedule to date: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos ... but must face the Yankees and Rays a combined 29 games the rest of the season, including 13 straight in late July and early August: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2019-schedule-scores.shtml
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For what it's worth, FiveThirtyEight projects the Red Sox at 61-46 (.570) the rest of the season while FanGraphs has the Sox at 63-44 (.585): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
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Hey! Gerson Bautista was later traded for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano. To be precise, the New York Mets traded Bautista, Justin Dunn, Jarred Kelenic, Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak to the Seattle Mariners for Diaz, Cano and cash.
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Addision Reed came with only three months of team control when the Red Sox acquired the reliever from the Mets on July 31, 2017, for Stephen Nogosek, Gerson Bautista and Jamie Callahan: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reedad01.shtml#all_transactions_other Adam Conley comes with three years of team control beyond this season. Brandon Kintzler came with a year and two months of team control on July 31, 2018, when the Cubs acquired the reliever from the Washington Nationals for Jhon Romero.
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Notin deserves respect on this forum for being realistic. Bobby Dalbec has posted a .241/.362/.456/.817 line in 188 plate appearances at Double A this year as the thirdbaseman approaches his 24th birthday in a month: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa857701&position=3B FanGraphs lists Dalbec's future value at only 40+.
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I doubt the 25-29 Los Angeles Angels, who are not expected to contend this year, would trade for a nearly 31-year-old utility player with a .125/.222/.125/.347 line over 27 plate appearances in his final year of team control.
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Jenrry Mejia has a 6.75 ERA over his past 10 appearances at Pawtucket: http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=516769#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL Still I have yet to cut Mejia (or Ryan Brasier) from my fantasy roster.
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Where does Dustin Pedroia rank in Red Sox history?
harmony replied to StephenCurry30's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Dustin Pedroia ranks seventh among Red Sox position players in career bWAR: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/leaders_bat_50.shtml Pedrioa's career bWAR of 51.7 is topped by only three Red Sox pitchers: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/leaders_pitch_50.shtml -
Neither the Red Sox nor the Yankees have played a particularly difficult schedule to date this season: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos
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Travis Shaw had seasons of 3.9 and 4.1 bWAR (and 3.5 and 3.6 fWAR) in Milwaukee. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shawtr01.shtml https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11982&position=3B
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The Red Sox, who stranded six runners, were 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position. The Astros, who stranded eight runners, were 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position. MLB Gameday: Red Sox 3, Astros 4 Final Score (05/24/2019) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Red Sox vs. Astros at Minute Maid Park
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Kansas City lefthander Danny Duffy is signed through 2021 with about $41 million left on his contract: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duffyda01.shtml#all_br-salaries
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I suspect games against the Astros and Yankees matter the most.
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Through first 26 MLB games: WM 106 PA, .314/.340/.559/.898. 14 R, 6 HR, 22 RBI MC 113 PA, .296/.389/.592/.981, 17 R, 9 HR, 24 RBI Objectivity is a heavy cross to bear. Because specific team needs, my fantasy team does not have role for Michael Chavis but I can't find a taker in a trade despite intense marketing.
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The New Yorker article was referenced in the book I recommended: The Only Rule Is It Has to Work, by Ben Lindbergh and Ben Miller.
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The Red Sox may well contend again but the Sox have played only 14 of 47 games against teams that qualified for the 2018 postseason (and half of those 14 games have come against an Oakland club that had stumbled out of the gate this year). The Red Sox are a difficult team to forecast.
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On April 17 Kimmi asked that I come back in a month when I posted the postseason odds for the Red Sox. I can't seem to track down those posts, but ... The Red Sox postseason chances have gone from 50.7 percent on April 17 to 76.7 percent today at FanGraphs and from 50 percent on April 15 to 65 percent today at FiveThirtyEight: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2019-05-20&dateDelta= https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ The preseason Red Sox numbers were 90.3 percent at FanGraphs and 76 percent at FiveThirtyEight.
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Kimmi, in the discussion of old school versus analytics, I highly recommend The Only Rule Is It Has To Work: Our Wild Experiment Building a New Kind of Baseball Team by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller, the former editor in chief and current editor in chief at Baseball Prospectus. The stat geeks were given nearly full rein to make personnel and strategy decisions for the Sonoma team one year in an independent California league. The read is quite entertaining on top of being informative.
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I may complete the NCAA trifecta as my daughter’s university hosts a D2 Regional this weekend. Today I’m not sure I can make it from a 3:30 pm college game to the 7 pm Padre game.