harmony

It's all good.

Was that necessary?:) Diverse opinions are welcome here.

I lost interest after the Denver Broncos attained the "ultimate goal" in consecutive years. Perhaps I am fortunate that my life lacks a success void yearning to be filled vicariously by the onfield success of my favorite sports team. My happiness does not correlate with the wins and losses of the Seattle Mariners. Generalizations have little value but ... Red Sox fans tend to be visceral while Mariner fans tend to be cerebral. Sox fans revel in the instant joy of a win or a World Series title while Mariner fans tend to be problem-solvers entranced by the troubles of their favorite franchise. It's probably no coincidence that Dave Cameron and Jeff Sullivan went from amateur bloggers for the Mariners to managing editors at FanGraphs to jobs in the front offices of two MLB teams.

Maybe within my lifetime ... maybe not. I was a hardcore Denver Broncos fan for 20 years but lost interest after the Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls in the late 1990s. I don't follow the NFL at all these days. Sometimes it's the journey, not the destination.

You're on a roll despite your improper grammar but Seattle fans take minor solace that six Mariner prospects are ranked above the top Red Sox prospect at MLB Prospect Watch: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects The Red Sox and Mariners entered this season with contrasting goals.

Last night in the 95th game of the season the Red Sox lost at home to the Blue Jays to fall to 51-44. In the 95th game of the 2012 season the Red Sox lost at home to the Blue Jays to fall to 48-47. It could be worse.

For the first time in recent memory FanGraphs has dropped the Red Sox postseason chances below 50 percent (at 48.9): https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds ... while FiveThirtyEight has the Sox postseason chances at 33 percent: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

Could Andrew Cashner be trade bait if the Red Sox struggle in the eight or nine games against the Rays and Yankees leading up to the July 31 trade deadline? If so, could the Red Sox get more back in a trade than the Sox gave up in the July 13 trade for Cashner?

Jackie Bradley Jr.'s OPS+ went from 49 in 423 plate appearances in 2014 to 119 in 255 plate appearances in 2015. Mookie Betts' OPS+ went from 108 in 2017 to 185 in 2018 to 124 this year. Stats sometimes fluctuate year to year.

In the "old days" -- perhaps eight years ago -- the trained observers made the defensive assessments on each play. Today those calls are made by Statcast and similar devices that precisely track, among other things, the angle and velocity of the ball as well as the position of the player. For better or worse, technology has taken over the game. I recommend the new book The MVP Machine: How Baseball's New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/07/building-the-next-babe-ruth/590641/

https://library.fangraphs.com/the-beginners-guide-to-replacement-level/

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/replacement-level/

FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 53.3 percent chance of advancing to the postseason while FiveThirtyEight has the Sox chances at 38 percent: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ An exciting finish indeed.

A fan's assessment of a player's defensive abilities can be based on several sources, including televised coverage of that player, accompanied by biased commentary from that team's announcers. I don't watch much television but my favorite team's radio announcers offer laudatory off-cuff defensive commentary on a particular play although that player's overall defensive metrics are not flattering.

Anecdotal citation to Jackie Bradley Jr. does not undermine the value of Big Data. Last year Jackie Bradley Jr. was left off the ballots of four of the 10 Fielding Bible panelists voting on the top defensive center fielder: http://fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp Bradley's highest rankings came from Bill James and Peter Gammons, who each have Red Sox connections.

Big Data will exploit those who rely on their anecdotal evidence.

How does Andrew Cashner comp with another tall veteran righthanded Texan born in 1986: Homer Bailey, whom the Kansas City Royals reportedly have traded to the Oakland Athletics? Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Cashner with rest-of-season WAR of 0.7 and 0.5 in 12 starts and Bailey with rest-of-season WAR of 0.4 and 0.5 in 11 starts. ZiPS projects Cashner with a rest-of-season WAR of 0.6 in 11 starts but offers no projection for Bailey. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8782&position=P https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8362&position=P Cashner cost the Red Sox two distant 17-year-old prospects from Venezuela. Bailey cost the Athletics a 2017 first-round draft pick who has floundered (out of George M. Steinbrenner High School and the University of South Florida). Kevin Merrell was Oakland's 17th-ranked prospect at MLB Prospect Watch and its 20th-ranked prospect at FanGraphs. The Red Sox reportedly will pay Cashner $1.58 million for the remainder of the season while Oakland will pay Bailey a prorated portion of the league minimum of $555,000 (with the Los Angeles Dodgers picking up the balance of Bailey's 2019 salary of $23 million).

Correction made. 😟

FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 58.2 percent chance of advancing to the postseason while FiveThirtyEight has the Sox chances at 46 percent: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ Red Sox fans could be in for an exciting finish.

The trade was a good one for the Red Sox but ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Andrew Cashner with rest-of-season ERA of 5.05. 4.99 and 5.02: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8782&position=P

The trade was a good one for the Red Sox but ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Andrew Cashner with rest-of-season WAR of 5.05. 4.99 and 5.02: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8782&position=P

ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project rest-of-season WAR of 1.2, 1.1 and 1.2 for Rick Porcello and 0.6, 0.6 and 0.7 for Andrew Cashner: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=P https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8782&position=P

For what it's worth, this year Andrew Cashner has posted 1.8 fWAR in 17 starts: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8782&position=P Eduardo Rodriguez has posted 1.7 fWAR in 19 starts and Rick Porcello 1.3 fWAR in 18 starts: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=3&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddat According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Cashner has a complicated contract: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/baltimore-orioles/ It would be interesting to learn how the teams split up the obligations.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/red-sox-acquire-andrew-cashner.html ... according to MLB Trade Rumors.