harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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Before Thursday's game FanGraphs gave the Red Sox a 45.2 percent chance of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds ... while after the game FiveThirtyEight listed the Red Sox postseason chances at 26 percent: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/
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I do not have a Baseball America subscription. And thank you, jacksonianmarch, for the link to the Baseball Prospectus midseason rankings (with Seattle prospects at No. 13, No. 39 and No. 42).
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Even in the likely event Rick Porcello does not return, the Red Sox will owe Chris Sale and David Price a combined $62 million in 2020. This website lists Sale with a surplus value of $17.2 million and Price with a negative value of $44.8 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
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The $67.25 million in combined 2019 salaries for David Price, Rick Porcello and Chris Sale exceeds Tampa Bay's Opening Day payroll of $60.1 million. Sale's salary jumps from $15 million this year to $30 million next year.
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Zack Greinke pitched well in four postseasons for the big-market Los Angeles Dodgers: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml
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In hindsight a year from now Red Sox fans may appreciate today's inaction. Or not.
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Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto likely approached many teams, including the Red Sox, about Roenis Elias and Hunter Strickland but probably settled on the best offer. On a sidenote, my fantasy team with Strickland applauded the trade of Elias because Strickland likely would be elevated to the closer's role in Seattle. The fortunes were reversed moments later when the Mariners traded Strickland to the same Nationals club.
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What if no "legit" reliever is available "at a reasonable cost"?
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Former Red Sox farmhand Mauricio Dubon reportedly to the Giants in a "significant" trade:
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Perhaps a potential Wild Card berth is not enough incentive to trade assets for a short-term gain. The saying that "anything can happen" in the postseason is true: the season can end with a World Series title ... or with a blowout loss in the Wild Card play-in game.
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Zack Wheeler ($9.8 million) would fit.
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According to this website, Andrew Benintendi has $58.6 million in surplus value and Edwin Diaz $47.3 million in surplus value: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
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This trade simulator gives that trade proposal $55.6 million in surplus value to the Red Sox and $29.2 million in surplus value to the Mets: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
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This trade simulator gives that trade proposal $152.5 million in surplus value on one side and $63.7 million in surplus value on the other side: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ Guess which side gets what.
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Have the Mets offered Edwin Diaz? Or have the Mets simply fielded inquiries about Diaz?
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This trade simulator gives surplus values of $47.3 million for Edwin Diaz, $12.1 million for Michael Chavis and $13.2 million for Bobby Dalbec: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
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FWIW, this trade simulator gives a trade of Andrew Benintendi and Ryan Brasier for Edwin Diaz and Zack Wheeler precisely $58.5 million in surplus value on each side: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
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According to this trade simulator, Edwin Diaz and Xander Bogaerts have the same surplus value around $47 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ In contrast Bobby Dalbec has a surplus value of $13.2 million. In the proposed trade of Dalbec, Jason Groome, Denyi Reyes and another player for Diaz, Zack Wheeler and Dominic Smith, the trade simulator gives the former trio $18 million in surplus value and the latter trio $66.8 million in surplus value. To even out the value the other player would need to be Andrew Benintendi ($58.6 million in surplus value).
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Any thoughts on nonrental Seattle relievers Anthony Bass, with a 2019 salary of $950,000, and Hunter Strickland, with a 2019 salary of $1.3 million? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bassan01.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strichu01.shtml In return the Mariners would likely ask for less than your much-maligned:) Juan Then, the 19-year-old righthander whom the Yankees traded for Edwin Encarnacion. Then, whose start I will witness this evening, has a 2.81 ERA, 18 strikeouts, three walks and a .196 BAA in 16 innings despite a rough debut with the Everett AquaSox of the short-season Class A Northwest League.
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Seattle relievers Anthony Bass and Hunter Strickland pitched scoreless, hitless, walkless innings Sunday as the Mariners completed a four-game sweep of the lowly Tigers: MLB Gameday: Tigers 2, Mariners 3 Final Score (07/28/2019) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Tigers vs. Mariners at T-Mobile Park
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17 Trade Deadline proposals for contenders WWW.MLB.COM Astros president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow last week outlined his Trade Deadline wish list: Catcher, starting pitcher, left-handed reliever. Really, Jeff? Is that all? How about we throw in a weekend in Maui? Meanwhile, his Dodgers counterpart, Andrew Friedman, said he intended to be aggressive as usual before adding
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According to this trade simulator, under that proposal the Red Sox would receive $66.4 million in value and the Mets $25.6 million in value: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ That's more than a tad lopsided.
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The New York Mets reportedly may package starter Zack Wheeler and closer Edwin Diaz in a trade: https://nypost.com/2019/07/27/mets-may-make-zack-wheeler-edwin-diaz-a-deadline-package/
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If Boston can get Syndergaard you must empty farm
harmony replied to Swiharts Ghost's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
That proposal does not pass the smell test at this trade simulator: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ -
Instead the Red Sox signed righthander Nathan Eovaldi, with a career ERA+ of 95, to a four-year, $68 million contract. While the Trade Simulator's net value of a negative $400,000 for Hunter Strickland is surprising, that negative value pales in comparison to Eovaldi's negative value of $26.6 million. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ BTW, in July 2009 the Red Sox traded Strickland and infielder Argenis Diaz for nine days of Adam LaRoche, who was then traded for Casey Kotchman.