harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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The prospect rankings apparently were meaningful on this forum back when the Red Sox were highly ranked.
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If Nathan Eovaldi were healthy enough to post a modest 1.0 fWAR this year, then his three-year stats might be meaningful. But at this point the righthander needs to prove that he's not broken (and we all hope Eovaldi is not broken).
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All six of those starters posted at least 1.0 fWAR in 2018, not the negative 0.3 fWAR posted this year by Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi needs to prove he is healthy enough to post a positive fWAR.
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Garrett Richards provides evidence why most teams would not offer a roughly 30-year-old injury-prone starter upwards of $5 million a year.
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It was a courtesy by this journalist-turned-attorney who abhors errors and appreciates corrections.
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Christopher Smith made the correction on Sunday after an email exchange with a harmonious poster who notified Smith of the error.
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Christopher Smith of masslive.com weighs in on the Red Sox payroll: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2019/10/boston-red-sox-likely-to-cut-payroll-at-non-tender-deadline-with-701m-projected-for-salary-arbitration-players.html
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Last offseason shortly after his 31st birthday in February, Brett Anderson signed a one-year, $1.5 million contract with the Oakland Athletics after posting 2.9 fWAR in his four previous injury-plagued seasons, including 0.9 fWAR in 2018. Nathan Eovaldi turns 30 in February after posting only 2.6 fWAR over the past four seasons, including a negative 0.3 fWAR this year.
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How much would a team pay an injury-prone starter who turns 30 in February after posting only 2.6 fWAR over the past four seasons, including a negative 0.3 fWAR this year?
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According to this website, David Price has a negative value of $69.9 million with $96 million remaining on his contract while Nathan Eovaldi has a negative value of $42.7 million with $51 million remaining on his contract: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
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In each of the next three years will Chris Sale, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi be better or worse than the combined 5.6 fWAR the trio posted in 2019?
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Bobby Dalbec, who is a few weeks older than Michael Chavis, has played only 30 games above Double A, posting a .257/.301/.478/.779 line and a wRC+ of 91 in 123 plate appearances at Pawtucket with 29 strikeouts and only five walks. Dalbec fared much better with a wRC+ of 143 in 439 plate appearances as a league-average-age player at Double A this year but has a Future Value of only 50 at MLB Prospect Watch and 45 at FanGraphs.
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MLB Trade Rumors projects 2020 arbitration salaries for 12 Red Sox players, including Jackie Bradley Jr. at $11 million, Eduardo Rodriguez at $9.5 million and Andrew Benintendi at $4.9 million: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html
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Coming off an 89-win season in 2018, the Seattle Mariners traded away reigning All Stars Edwin Diaz and Jean Segura, plus James Paxton and Mike Zunino, while letting All Star Nelson Cruz enter free agency. The jury remains out after a 94-loss season, but the Mariners apparently were not content with the pending mediocrity.
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According to this website, Eduardo Rodriguez has a surplus value of $37.6 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ Taylor Trammel, Luis Patino and Dustin May -- the 28th-, 30th- and 32nd-ranked prospects at MLB Prospects -- have surplus values of $42.2 million, $45.6 million and $54.7 million, according to that website. Carter Kieboom, the 20th-ranked prospect, has a surplus value of $76.5 million. Heliot Ramos, the 50th-ranked prospect, is listed with a surplus value of $28.7 million.
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The Boston Globe's Alex Speier weighs in on the possibility of a Mookie Betts trade: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/10/07/someone-gotta-assessing-trade-value-mookie-betts/JoTYwAy6YSjjOU6mBWUNFN/story.html?et_rid=1739401789&s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter
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Note these stats for the Age 22 seasons of two players: Player A 748 PA, 123 R, 213 H, 42 HR, 124 RBI, 46 SB, .310/.360/.560/.919, OPS+ 136 Player B 702 PA, 129 R, 201 H, 32 HR, 115 RBI, 8 SB, .311/.361/.555/.916, OPS+ 133 Player A is Alex Rodriguez and Player B is Rafael Devers. That's elite company.
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Like the Red Sox, the San Francisco Giants advanced to the postseason four times this decade. The Giants, however, but came away with three World Series titles.
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This website suggests that Mookie Betts has $40.1 million in surplus value and Anthony Rizzo $27 million in surplus value: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ Warm regards, The Cooler
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MLB Trade Rumors weighs in: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/looking-for-a-match-in-a-mookie-betts-trade.html#comments
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Those three teams had the advantage of playing in an American League East division that finished with a cumulative regular-season record under .500 at 404-406 (.499). The Minnesota Twins had the advantage of playing in an American League Central division with a cumulative regular-season record of 372-436 (.460). None of those clubs played in the powerful American League West with its cumulative regular-season record of 422-388 (.521). In its team ratings, one website has the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers as the clear top teams with Yankees third, the Athletics fifth, the Rays eighth, the Twins 10th and the Red Sox 11th: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/
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Over the past two seasons the "surprising" Oakland Athletics have won more regular-season games than the Red Sox despite Boston's 108 wins in 2018. Over that period the Tampa Bay Rays have won six fewer regular-season games than the Sox. But the World Series flag flies in Boston.
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The Red Sox will have the 17th pick in the June 2020 draft: 2020 Draft order set WWW.MLB.COM For the second time in three years, the Tigers own the No. 1 pick in the Draft. After taking right-hander Casey Mize with the first selection in 2018, Detroit is on the clock for 2020. Detroit lost a Major League-high 114 games, the second-most in the franchise's 119-season history, to ... the fourth-highest pick since the Sox took David Murphy with the No. 17 pick of the 2003 draft: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=BOS&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round The three higher picks were Trey Ball (No. 7 in 2013), Andrew Benintendi (No. 7 in 2015) and Jay Groome (No. 12 in 2016). Other No. 17 picks for the Red Sox included Rick Asadoorian in 1999 and John Curtice in 1997.
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According to one website, Manuel Margot and Logan Allen currently have surplus values of $26.2 million and $15.4 million, respectively: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ To date Margot has posted 4.3 fWAR, valued at $34.7 million, while Allen has posted a rounded-down 0.0 fWAR, valued at $200,000: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14712&position=OF https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=18555&position=P
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Boston lefthander Eduardo Rodriguez earned $4.3 million this season in his second year of arbitration and remains under team control for two more arbitration seasons: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodried05.shtml