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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. I am not sure sure signing the versatile Baez is thumbing one's nose at Mayer and the 2024 roster, which Mayer might not even be part of considering he will still only be 21 years old at the time...
  2. A simple plan 1. Trade for CL Lou Trivino with Oakland. Trivino has a surplus value on BTV of $1.1mill, which gives plenty of options. 3B/2B Hudson Potts ($2.4mill) looks like an overpay, but I'd be surprised if Oakland went for it. Maybe LHP Chris Murphy ($2.1mill) would get the deal done. Trivino make $923K last off-season, so let's put his first year arb salary around $2mill. 2. Sign Cesar Hernandez for 2B. Hernandez has a Gold Glove on his resume, and has shown the ability to bat just about anywhere, and is consistenly in the 2-3 fWAR range. Last year, he signed for 1 yr / $5mill. 2 yrs / $16mill might be enough. Not sure how Hernandez missed to the top 50 free agent list on MLBTR. 3. Sign a SP. I'll go with Jon Gray, coming off a rough 2020-21 in Colorado where he made $6mill. I am horrible at guessing free agenmt deals. so I can go with the MLBTR prediction of 4 years / $56mill. 4. Trade for a SP using Jarren Duran (BTV surprlus value - $23.2 mill). Some intriguing matches include Northeastern alum Aaron Civale ($21.6 mill) and Sox legacy Cal Quantrill ($21.2 mill). Not sure about how Cleveland feels about moving a SP, but it's not unheard of for them and their OF is full of questions. Neither Civale nor Quantrill is arbitration-eligible until next season. 5. Non-tender Plawecki and Austin Davis Obviously, the biggest obstacle is the Cleveland trade, which BTV accepts but Cleveland probably doesn't. Dealing Duran to Oakland for someone like Sean Manaea is much more likely. Manaea is inhis last year of arbitration elgibility and will command a lot more than Civale or Quantrill, but he can easily be fit in here. C: Vazquez 1B: Dalbec (and eventually Casas) 2B: C Hernandez 3B: Devers SS: Bogaerts LF: Verdugo CF: E Hernandez RF: Renfroe DH: Martinez SP: Sale, Eovaldi, Gray, Manaea/Civale/Quantrill, Pivetta BP: Trivino, Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Sawamura, D Hernandez BN: C Wong, Arroyo, Locastro, and a placeholder for Casas, probably Arauz. Added cost from trades/free agents: ~$25mill (plus Manaea). Should come in under whatever the budget is...
  3. I was talking about July of 2020. Sure we did not have Whitlock back then, but the WAPM foresaw it ...
  4. While I don't think a pre-emptive move for the SS position if Bogaerts leaves is a bad thing, it is also possibly very unnecessary. When Bogaerts hits the market next off-season, if the Sox cannot bring him back, the other shortstops that might be available include Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Tim Anderson is another, but he has a $12.5mill team option that is very likely to be exercised...
  5. I did state that acquiring Seager would lessen their interest in Olson, as he is the left-handed hitter they desperately need to replace Rizzo. I also suspect Torres might consider terminating his lease in the Bronx, and I suppose he might be part of a package for Oakland, either going directly there (extremely unlikely) or to a third team to get an enticing prospect (more likely, although probably not to Boston despite the fit). BTV doesn't give him much surplus value ($10.8mill), but he also does carry some name value and it's not like 2021 is representative of his entire career. Maybe something like Yankees get: Matt Olson (from A's), SS Yolbert Sanchez (from White Sox) White Sox get: Gleyber Torres (from Yankees) A's get: SS Oswald Pereza (from Yankees), OF Yoeklis Cespedes (from White Sox, younger brother of Yoenis), RHP Luis Gil (from Yankees) BTV accepts it, and it clears up the Yankee infield problem you mentioned. It also makes some sense for all three teams, with the possibility that some players like Yolbert Sanchez can be substituted for by any of a bunch of others...
  6. Unlike Schwarber, JD, etc. Baez can actually flash some serious leather. He is a very good player. And despite his overt affections displayed to the Mets' fans, he is probably going to re-sign there. Apparently, he and Lindor are BFF's going back to when both were drafted in the same first round. Of course, the dust has recently settled in the Mets' front office, and we will have to see how Billy Eppler feels about Baez to make this a reality...
  7. We may also stop talking about Mayer by then. I know Bloom has to consider the future when making deals, but he probably shouldn't build the 2022 roster around players who graduated high school in 2021...
  8. Oh I would never have expected anything from you to be founded.
  9. Yes, I blatantly plagiarized the sentiments I have been expressing since, like, July...
  10. For a closer? It is. It's not quite Liam Hendricks level, but that is a lot of money for a 60 inning pitcher. Also bear in mind signing Raisel Iglesias would cost the Sox a draft pick. I don't see Bloom giving up a draft pick for a closer...
  11. I am imagining a much simpler plan for free agency - three free agents. The Sox are likely to sign one starting pitcher. I would add Matz to the list not because I think he is a good fit, but because the rumors are already out there. I would also add Martin Perez, again, not because I think he fits, but Bloom has already signed him twice. Other candidates are probably pitchers like Jon Gray (who is now 5th in fWAR among free agent starters since 2018, behind Verlander, Kershaw, Gausman and Stroman), Jakob Junis (long shot who has been limited to about 65 IP in the last 2 seasons due to injuries, and therefore might be willing to sign a short term low money deal), and Matt Boyd (not a free agent, but is a non-tender candidate in Detroit). I expect a RP to be signed. But not a conventional closer, because Bloom ahs a history of building bullpens using interchangeable parts for that role. With one (or hopefully both) or Houck and Whitlock in the bullpen, someone like Archie Bradley might be a solid fit. Mychal Givens is among the leaders for free agent RP since 2018, along with Ryan Tepera. Another name I keep on the list is Hansel Robles, since he has expressed interest (although I should note that it's not exactly uncommon for players to expres interest in staying with their current team during the timeframe when that's the only team they can legally negotiate with). Graveman is another name, but he might be pricing himself out of the Sox range with his uncharacteristically stellar season. He also has a long injury history, although a lot of that damage was when he was trying to be a starter. I expect a 2B. Cesar Hernandez is the headliner here, IMO. Semien is a name linked to Boston going back to last year, and his QO might be less of an issue given that Bogaerts has already voiced his desire to exercise his opt-out. I like Eduardo Escobar as a hitter, but not as a fielder, although repeated shifting strategies have lessened the need for defense at 2B. Jonathan Villar has some potential, but at the end of the day, he also strikes me as a best-case scenario for the future of Jarren Duran. I think another pitcher is acquired via trade, probably involving Duran, who has no place to play, is MLB-ready, not getting younger, and makes the league minimum, which maximizes his appeal around the league...
  12. i will wager one of any body part that I have two (or more) of that the Sox do not sign 5 free agents to Major League deals....
  13. And no longer battle-tested...
  14. I think two names often overlooked at 2B that won't command $200-300mill are Eduardo Escobar and Jonathan Villar. Neither are going to win a Gold Glove (and maybe both will look like they are fielding with one instead), but both have pros and cons that make them intriguing candidates. I liked the Taylor idea but I think the QO is a deal-breaker for the Sox. The incredibly underrated and often underappreciated Cesar Hernandez is another very interesting 2B candidate. Last year, he signed a 1 year $5mill deal, which seems pretty light for a reigning Gold Glover.
  15. If the Sox non-tender him, it is probably to free up the 40 man space, which means Wong might be the backup. Sure, we once traded Leon to get Plawecki, but this is just re-arranging backup catchers and is about as low of an impact as trades get...
  16. There is no trade market for Plawecki. Every team has at least one Plawecki on their 40-man already, and if they want another, free agency always carries a few who can be had for less than $2mill...
  17. Well, if he is dealt, the $7 mill price tag is part of the deal. We all make trade proposals based on our own feelings about players. But when the deal is based on the strategy of "we need to get rid of this guy," we enter some flawed territory thinking his is movable at all. And salary dumping is certainly a good reason to unload a player that can be outside his abilities, but the Sox are typically a team positioned to take advantage of salary-dumping as opposed to engage in it. Mookie Betts trade notwithstanding...
  18. I still think there is a possibility Plawecki is non-tendered. It might come down to what's more valuable. 1. Plawecki as a $2-2.5mill backup catcher? 2. Or the 40 man roster spot?
  19. If Vaz is the weak link you promote him as being, why would any other team be interested?
  20. Here is the thing about the Angels - their biggest problem over the past several seasons has been injured pitchers. So to fix this problem, they are looking at a guy with 2 IP in the past two seasons?
  21. If the Yankees sign Corey Seager, Olson becomes less of a priority, especially since they still have Luke Voit lumbering around the clubhouse. Until then, certainly I epxect the Yankees to be linked. But now that we have seen Detroit make a move, i would suspect the offensively-challenged Tigers to be linked to Olson as well, especially given their poor performances from the first basemen last off-season. (Superstar prospect Spencer Torkelson might have to move to DH.) The Brewers are another team that could clearly use Olson, but unlike the Tigers and the Yankees, the cupboard below the MLB team is pretty barren. If the Yankees make Jasson Dominguez untouchable (which might be a deal-breaker), BTV accepts a package of Oswald Peraza, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt (or another aof a few names). Detroit could offer Tarik Skubal and Akil Baddoo, which BTV accepts. And probably better fits the A's needs Milwaukee could offer Luis Urias (who has regained some of his lost luster) and 2021 first-rounder Sal Frelick. Urias plus Bryce Turang is an overpay per BTV, but probably more realistic. Although overall, it doesn't make me all waarn and fuzzy...
  22. I actually fully expected you to be either flabbered or gasted, but not the combination of the two...
  23. But then signing big name free agents really doesn't guarantee anything either. If it did, one might think the Angels would make the post-season once in a while.
  24. It is possible, but I think it might be a bit risky from the Sox to put both Whitlock and Houck in the rotation. I prefer neither, but I do believe at least one will make the jump. In their brief careers, both have shown to be elite relievers while questions remain about them as starters. Moving both to the rotation not only raises those questions but also might raise questions about whoever replaces them in the bullpen. While certainly sometimes the answer to these questions is a resounding "f*** yes!", I still like the idea of simply not having those questions at all...
  25. I remember Lugo actually having a pretty good World Series at the plate. Of course, I also remember him committing the error that might have cost Schilling a perfect game, as that was the only runner to reach from the first 27 hitters Schilling faced before he lost the no-hitter with 2 outs in the ninth on a clean single by leadoff hitter Shannon Stewart. I wasn't as down on Lugo as many, but there were both bad and good memories of his time with Boston. He was also once traded to the Cardinals for 1B Chris Duncan (son of legendary Cardinal pitching coach Dave Duncan). Sadly, neither player from that trade is still with us. And I liked all the tweets by players lime Will Middlebrooks talking about how he worked with the young infielders in the Sox system. Lugo had his struggles with the Sox, but he clearly will be missed by many...
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