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Everything posted by notin
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I think they moved him figuring they’re probably not going to get their IP from him, and someone had to go to fit a SP who can into the budget. But they clearly liked Grissom as well, and had to pay more cash to get him in return. Of course it didn’t help that they will get 0 IP from the guy they expected to provide 150-180 IP…
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Or just play DeJong since his best attribute isn’t his bat…
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Adding another starter would have been nice for Boston. I’ve repeatedly listed some MLB vet talent that settled for MiLB deals. No idea why Boston just avoided them all. Let me explain my point. An MLB season is about 1450 innings. A good goal for a team is to have the rotation pitch 800-850 innings, leaving the remaining IP for the bullpen. Sale in recent years has not been much for innings, with about 150 from 2029 thru 2023. If the Sox counted on Sale, and he only pitched 40 IP, they have fewer arms to handle that remaining 760-810 IP. The Braves, as shown by the 13 names listed previously, have many more arms to pick up that difference…
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Sale obviously makes the Sox that much better. But they simply couldn’t count on him. Giolito looked worse in every way but one - he has had superior durability to Sale. I suspect that was the goal here…
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At the beginning of the year, they had Strider, Fried, Morton, Lopez, Sale, Elder, Waldrep, Dodd, Vines, Smith-Shawver, Schwellenbach, Ynoa, and Winans. Their system is also working quite well for Reynaldo Lopez. That’s 13 starting pitchers. Who are the Sox top 13?
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I’m not asking how it works for the Braves’ overall won-loss record, just how it affects an individual pitcher’s performance and health. Is it better for ann individual pitcher? Does it somewhat mitigate the risk of injury? Or does it exacerbate it?
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Yes. His numbers as cited do include some bad luck, which isn’t hard to find. His BABIP is ridiculously low. He’s below league average BABIP for both groundballs and line drives. His expected slugging is low, as he has yet to show any power. That isn’t likely a luck factor. Could be related to his flu recovery. Could be he’s just not much of a power hitter…
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Huh? It didn’t matter who else Atalanta gives additional rest to. Charlie Morton also gets some. The point is Atlanta can do this because unlike Boston, they have multiple starting pitchers in the majors and ready to step in from the minors. Heck the Braves had a former MLB All Star on the AAA staff to start the season. If Sale was in Boston, would he be handled the same? Or would he be pitching with less rest more often?
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Well if he had chosen instead to gain the extra day with Dr. Sam Beckett, he might never have leapt home in time for first pitch…
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The Sox could not accommodate him similarly. We scrimp and scrounge to get a 5 man rotation. By the way, Bellhorn, this is what I have been talking about saying Atlanta was in a better position to accommodate Sale…
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Acquire a SS (DeJong?) Put Rafaela in CF. Move Duran to LF. Move O’Neill to RF. Abreu can be used as the 4th OF to give each a regularly scheduled Cora Break. Or he could be demoted to play more. Refsnyder moves to a RHH DH role in a platoon with Yoshida.
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No, those are built on a foundation of luck…
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Anything expected, like xBA, xOPS, etc…
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I didn’t come to that conclusion. Batting runs are a function of wOBA against league and park factors, among other things like position, etc. In order to accommodate luck, it would need an expected component, like xwOBA, xBABIP. Basically something that uses an expected outcome over an actual outcome, as this is how luck is included. I can’t find any such reference. https://library.fangraphs.com/war/war-position-players/
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I don’t think luck is factored into fWAR…
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He might not contribute this year. Luckily a few guys who couldn’t contribute last year have stepped up…
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Of course Max keeps pointing out the Braves are giving Sale additional rest days. I can’t find evidence of that despite his slightly lower GS. But if that is the case in Atlanta, it should change the narrative here, since Boston doesn’t have the starter depth to accommodate him the same way…
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No one says Grissom is a guarantee. But plenty have said we don’t need him anymore because Story, Hamilton, Mayer, Valdez, etc. Of course that same cast of characters was here before Grissom and kept us all guessing then.
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Depth is a good thing. Not sure why so many fans think it isn’t…
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Plus Yoshida is coming off his JD Drew Moment...
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I still don't hate Grissom. I get why the Sox wanted to move on from Sale and get a more reliable pitcher. I get why Atlanta took a chance on him. I get why Grissom made sense in this trade from each side's perspective. It is annoying that nothing worked out for Boston...
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The Sox are riding some offensive hot streaks from this crowd. Rafaela is decent at SS, but leaves room for improvement there. Valdez couldn't catch a cold if he was naked in Norway. Hamilton is simply not passing as a shortstop. Grissom might not be the answer, at least not in 2024. But there is definitely a question worth asking here. This is why I think the sox need a good defensive SS (Paul DeJong?) to lock down the infield. Valdez can be demoted. Dalbec DFAd.
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There is a good chance one or two of them stop contributing. Hamilton has not hit for a while. Valdez is certainly far from a guarantee. At what point do we start recognizing these guys plus Rafaela might not be the new version of Whitaker and Trammell?
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It is a bit amazing to me how many people think Grissom is no longer needed, because 2b and SS will be filled by a cast of characters who were question marks as recently as May or are currently in the same prospect boat Grissom is in...
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Bello hasn't been horrible. He's just been worse than the unextended Houck and Crawford...
