notin
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Everything posted by notin
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I'm not so sure they track it live...
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It gives a probability for each play affecting the outcome of the game. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/wpa/
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True. Although thanks to his OCD, he made his at-bats so long it was easy to forget when he only saw one pitch...
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Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020
notin replied to Fan_since_Boggs's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
In fact, addressing the cliffs seems to have been an issue with Sox fans. Back in 2009, Epstein talked about the farm system having a "bridge year". And many fans decided foolishly he was talking about the MLB team and how he wasn't going to try and spend heavily on a premium product. This despite making John Lackey the then-highest paid pitcher in team history. But a lot of people, most of whom seemed to post on BDC, thought he was throwing away the season when he was addressing a minor league cliff.... -
Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020
notin replied to Fan_since_Boggs's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
And they will have one next year or the year after. Cliffs come and go. Before 2004, the following Sox players were due for free agency: Pedro, Lowe, Varitek, Nixon, and Nomar (who was dealt, but his replacement, Orlando Cabrera, was also a pending free agent). That's 3 key starters and two of their top starting pitchers. and I think there were some other names that elude me right now. (And Tim Wakefield, who was on that annual auto-renewal plan.) The farm system was pretty bland, as we had not replenished it with the awesome 2005 draft yet. (We did have Pedroia and Lester, both in A ball, as well as a few other less notable future major leaguers.) Yet by 2007, three years later, there they were. Back on top. A lot can happen in 3 years,,, -
B-R tracks all of that in their box scores as WPa (Win Probability Added)...
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Conversely, Mike Greenwell rarely saw a first pitch he didn't like, regardless of the type. Ditto Jody Reed. Of course, Reed was nowhere near the hitter Greenwell was...
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But sometimes the baserunning blunders are acceptable, especially the ones that are from aggressiveness for a team lacking punch. Moreland getting thrown out at third (despite it being the first out) didn't look like a blunder to me. If Moreland draws that throw like he did, it guarantees Betts scores, which is important in the 14th inning. I know the speedy Betts likely beats it anyway, but a non-throw eliminates any sort of freak miscues like Betts stumbling. In that situation, the single run was more important than worrying about a big inning. At least at the time.
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You lost heart one inning after a 3-run ninth? I know a lot of people have complained about the Sox offense this year, but this team has been about as deadly against closers as any Sox team in a long time....
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One of the biggest mistakes impatient hitters make when trying to learn patience and discipline is simply taking more pitches. The end result is often increased strikeouts with little to no improvement in walks...
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His recent performance has been so good, he might price himself out of a utility role. ..
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Even recently, he's been below .330 in two of the last three years. Nunez has been a plus offensively in several ways, but OBP is not likely to remain one. Of course he his normal OBP isn't so bad I'd call it a detriment either...
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Interestingly, Freddy Garcia was in the rotations of both the 2003 Mariners and the 2005 White Sox...
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A .760 OPS is a pretty decent guess, although the help from Fenway could also be offset somewhat by his aging over the next few years. As it was pointed out, money talks. So when Nunez hits the market, a safe bet he will want as much money and playing time for as long as possible. The Sox could use him to replace Moreland with minimal juggling, but will they? How much will they spend for him and for how long? It's not anything I can answer
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I would actually disagree with that. Bill James was a baseball outsider whose ideas were used by MLB teams before he was hired in Boston . And current Cardinals GM Mike Hirsh was originally hired by St. Louis because of a paper he wrote (and submitted to all 30 teams) about the importance of first round draft picks. But these are rare, and while S5 admits to have been joking, I've seen numerous other posters over the years who seemingly truly believed the Sox.read their message boards for ideas, which defies a lot of odds and is a bit silly
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I would agree Nunez is better than those guys, but I also think he isn't as good as he has been so far for Boston, where he is looking like one of the best mid-season acquisitions this team has made in a long time...
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Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020
notin replied to Fan_since_Boggs's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Eh. We were in their position last year.... -
It The Sox and no one affiliated with them reads this message board. There are literally thousands of message boards throughout the internet dedicated to the Boston Red Sox and reading through them for good ideas is not only a full time job for a large team of people, but also not worth it since there are far more posts suggesting the Sox trade Castillo, Price, Brentz and Swihart for Giancarlo Stanton...
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The Sox aren't signing Nunez, who has been very open about his desire to return to San Francisco. And for the money he is likely to want, it's a bit pricey for a utility player. Especially when the Sox might have Holt, Hernandez, Lin, and maybe even Swihart in similar roles already. ..
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And health. The 2005 White Sox got over an unheard of 150 starts from their opening day rotation. ...
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Astros have a very good rotation on paper, but they have also had their share of injuries in it...
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If he keeps pitching like this, it will be very expensive to keep him. Mike Pelfrey had a much worse career, had one rather boringly average season, and landed a $30mill deal. And now no one wants him except on a minors contract. ..
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Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020
notin replied to Fan_since_Boggs's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
To draw an analogy from current events, predicting what a team will look like in 3 years is like trying to accurately predict the path of a hurricane. While you may get an idea of the approximate path, a lot can and will happen over the next 3 years. -
Sure it is. A -5.1 UZR/150 isn't good. However he hss 39 games under his belt, roughly 10% of what you need for an accurate statistical assessment. His defense could easily end up measuring out quite well even if he doesn't improve as a player. Conversely his offense over time may not stay at tjis elite statistical level as well...
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The May deadline wasn't a prediction but rather a statement about my level of faith in Farrell. I think it would take an extremely poor start next April to oust him that quickly.. But by same token I also strongly believe it will take an equally poor finish for him to be gone before next year. I'm not even all that confident a sweep in the post-season would be enough.
