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Everything posted by notin
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Regardless of how you feel about it, nothing you have said provides any evidence that "clutch" is a repeatable skill...
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Of course September pennant races also involve facing minor league call ups, who do pitch in high leverage games, especially if the manager is Bruce Bochy. And let's not discount high leverage April games, where pitchers are fresher and wins can negate tight September pennant races. You know the saying. And I'm willing to bet no onr here ever watched a three run walk off home run snd thought "Big deal. Its only April. " But if you try to whittle clutch opportunities down to important September games, you find sample sizes get so small, one or two big hits might be all it takes to get the reputation. Is that what it takes?
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When you start insisting only players/athletes can understand clutch, you're devolving this whole argument back into a completely untrue but oft-repeated "the people on here who played the game believe in clutch but the people who didn't say it doesn't exist " counterargument. You don't need to havr played baseball to appreciate it. Just like you don't have to have appeared in s movie to appreciate it. No one ever denied players do have clutch moments and come through in the clutch. The question on the table is about clutch hitters ' hitters who can ELEVATE their performance in key situations. Ortiz is the most obvious example, but did he ever perform BETTER in clutch situations than he did in non-clutch ones? He was a flat out great hitter in any circumstance, and found homself in many key situations over his career. While we all remember many big moments he came through, we also forget about (or dismiss or excuse) the ones he didn't. And his success rate in big "clutch" situations appears to have been the same as other ones. True or false?
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baseball-reference.com Under "Splits"
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See. That type of split is typically he evidence I want to see, but in reverse. Abad looks like a good argument for choke...
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Well, first of all, it's narrow-minded to assume sports and athletes are the only people who deal with high pressure situations. But even then, success in high pressure once doesn't prove the ability to excel in high pressure repeatedly...
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Which is why I've never liked post-season stats as evidence of clutch or choke. They're too small and often spread out over too many years. I prefer in- season stuff like high leverage and late and close...
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Curses! There was still another way!
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Homerism much? The Guardians are equally capable of sweeping the Yankees as they are the Twins.
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First of all, I don't think anyone needs to have played the game (or been a decent athlete) to understand the concept of high pressure moments. In fact, I could argue those who play the game have their opinion swayed by their own experiences. "Pressure" itself becomes a subjective concept. No one ever denied certain hit and moments are "clutch." But what we frequently forget is, especially in baseball, there is always more than one person involved. Back to Mueller, was his hit really "clutch" or was that a choke moment for Mariano Rivera? And while no one likes to think of Rivera as anything but a post-season fountain of ice water (despite his being the only pitcher in MLB history to lose the lead and game in the ninth inning of game 7 of the World Series), so he couldn't have choked? Right? But what about Dave Henderson? Again, a massive clutch moment. But was Henderson clutch or did Donnie Moore choke? How do you draw that line? If you believe Moore choked, it certainly has to somewhat refute the argument that Henderson was able to "step up his game" in a high pressure moment...
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Every time someone has one of those "there's only one way to win," reality frequently proves there was another. The only axiom that holds true all the time would be - the only way the Sox win is if they score more runs than the Astros three times...
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I get it, but slumps, unlike injuries, can also end without reason. I like his chances better if it's just a slump. Everyone has them..
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But is every at-bat? Fans loved Jacoby Ellsbury for the 2007 WS MVP due to his team leading batting average. But the reality is, he as a non-factor for the first two games. And with the Sox up 2-0, he put up a 4-hit game that carried his series stats in a game the Sox won 10-5. Was he really a clutch performer?
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He certainly had one of the best post-seasons back in 1986, along with Spike Owen. Barrett also had one of the worst for the Sox in 1988. Of course, this all operates on the theory that every at-bat and IP in the post-season is a clutch situation. Barrett had a career OPS of .684. His OPS in Late and Close situations was .681. His OPS in High Leverage was .694. Shouldn't high leverage and late and close be clutch opportunities as well? He hit almost exactly the same, and the same size is significantly greater than looking at one two week stretch from a 10 year career...
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I don't think anyone doubts that, But from my observations and every bit of data I have gone over, those players are equally better in "non-clutch" situations as well, and their performance is typically about the same. With the game on the line, I would prefer to have David Ortiz up over, say, Brock Holt. But to be honest, I'd rather see Ortiz hit than Holt even if the game wasn't on the line...
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That's not a catch-22; that's just an unsupported belief. It doesn't make you're wrong. But it does mean actually trying to use data to justify your opinion is difficult and potentially impossible...
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I'd rather it was a slump. Slumps end. Injuries can linger on forever...
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I played high school ball with a couple of pitchers who played minor league ball (one in the Sox org, one for the Braves) but never made the majors. I had no delusions about hitting them even back then...
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Hodgson went to LSU. and your point is spot on. Even the worst professional athletes are light years talent-wise when compared to nearly everyone else...
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Makes sense. He could also hit a baseball longer than most pros
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Which was hardly unreasonable in March, given how hittable Kimbrel was last year and that Smith and Thornburg were AWOL..
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A huge factor there is bullpen. Look at the Sox crazy record in extra innings games. And how many extra innings road wins this team has....
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That is hopefully how Farrell is thinking. Maybe not the home-road splits per se, but some logic where his pitchers have had or should have an advantage...
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And expectations rear their ugly head. Porcello pitched worse than expected. Fister pitched better than expected. Therefore Fister must be better than Porcello. But the reality is Porcello has still pitched better than Fister.
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No 8 man pen? I prefer that to the 5 man bench..
