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Everything posted by notin
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It looks like the only debate is - is not spending heavily at closer the only way to build a bullpen? Right now, the Sox de facto closer is Barnes. It’s only January 7, so a lot can happen over the next 80 days. But if Barnes closes and they backfill his set up role with a good pitcher who doesn’t cost $15mill, is that necessarily the death nail of this team? Dombrowski does and always has valued the rotation over the bullpen, which may not agree with Cora’s managing style. So the question is- has Dombrowski learned his lesson from his Detroit days? We are talking about a GM who once entered the postseason with the three then-most recent AL Cy Young winners (Scherzer, Verlander, Price) and another future Cy Young winner (Porcello), but his closer was 39yo Joe Nathan. Is that what you really still expect from Dombrowski?
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If both teams offer 2/$24, then why does he choose setting up in New York over closing in Boston? And if the Yankees sign him, will it be an obstacle in the pursuit of Machado?..
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Maybe for Ottavino? Not for Kimbrel. Now maybe Kimbrel comes back on a 1year / $18-20 mill deal, assuming Henry allows the expense as long as it doesn’t hamper a reset (if the budget constraints are real)...
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The only real difference than is Span. The prospects dealt by the Mariners were weak, to be kindMoore was ranked 8th in the Mariners farm in mid-season 2017 by some and Romero was outside the top 20 of what was also a bottom third farm system. And citing their post-trade accomplishments doesn’t change what their status at the time of deal was. It’s not like improving is something limited to Mariner minor leaguers. Actually predicting a trade like this is difficult, but plenty of deals are made because GMs often value players differently than fans and scouting organizations. The Sox do lack the prospects to add major pieces, but could certainly add a reliever similar to Smith (who, again, has only one year of control left) using some combination of players like Chavis, Dalbec and Hernandez, whose status has apparently risen with his recent AFL success.
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It’s not a fallacy; it’s a hypothesis. It is very likely he is working on a budget and trying to win in 2019 without leaving an impossible situation in 2020 and beyond. If he was simply on it for 2019 and had a blank checkbook, why are the most notable additions to the bullpen to date two guys named Colten Brewer and Domingo Tapia?
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Keeping 2020 in mind is NOT the same as resting on laurels, andd the fact that so many key players are free agents after 2019 is more of a reason to keep 2020 in mind than it is to just worry about it later. My guess is Dombrowski plans on having a job then, too. If the goal was solely 2019, why Eovaldi over Kimbrel? Eovaldi was only with the Sox for 12 starts and 54 IP - hardly numbers one would associate with a core starting pitcher. The answer very likely he was brought back with not only 2019 in mind, but also 2020 and beyond, as Sale and Porcello could both depart. Kimbrel might return still. But not with a contract that Dombrowski figures to hamper his ability to re-sign Betts or whoever. I do think he knows what he’s doing and his plan isn’t simply 2019 and then “see what happens.” Because he knows that if the team sucks in 2020, no one will say “Yeah but we won it all in 2018, so it’s ok.” Just like no one said it about Cherington in 2014...
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They spent well. But you really can’t argue that Sandoval and Pedroia are major obstacles towards putting a 25 man roster together for a good GM. DD is tasked with putting together the best 25 man roster he can and has a budget of $208mill. Do you think he’s capable or not?
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As a fan, you have the luxury of saying “Forget 2020! Go for it now!! Strike while the iron is hot!! And all those other cliches!!” But my point is DD would be negligent in his job to act in such a manner. Not only is thinking about 2020 and beyond part of his job, really, so is thinking about July, 2019. Injuries are inevitable. Leaving yourself unprepared for this is foolish...
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So we’re the Astros, Guardians, Yankees, and Dodgers. Per baseball-reference, the only team in MLB with a payroll over $202mill was the Red Sox. Let’s not pretend that the Orioles are the destined result for any team spending under $208mill...
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While the contracts of Panda and Pedroia certainly can be a hindrance, you’re still asking Dombrowski to put together a winning team with the other $208million, and DD should be able to do that if he is a good GM. Most of MLB manages to pull off putting together a team with much less..,
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It’s not a nothing offer. Hernandez’ stock rose with his AFL performance. Smith has one year left on his contract. If you compare Smith to Alex Colome performance-wise, he’s about the same pitcher (4.1 fWAR the in 3 seasons prior). In the past 18 months, Colome has been traded twice, once for Andrew Moore and Tommy Romero and once for Omar Navarez. The trade to Seattle was when he still had 2 years left...
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The same way Andrew Moore and Tommy Romero did? Smith has been worth 4.1 fWAR over the past 3 seasons, the exact same amount Alex Colome was worth in the three seasons prior to his trade to Seattle. The difference is Smith, unlike Colome, has only one year left on his current contract...
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Per rotoworld, the Giants plan on making reliever Will Smith available once the closer market thins out. Smith is a relief stud. If the Sox can score Smith (for Dalbec and Hernandez?) and sign, say, Kelvin Herrera, how would that make people feel about this bullpen?
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Give it a try and see if it says “42”...
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Most of the opinions on Kimbrel were from former scout and front office executive Keith Law, whose opinions on Kimbrel run completely opposite yours (and, so as not to single you out, probably a very large number of fans as well). You might think Tomase, who’s written some strange things in his day, might be of his rocker. I could agree with that plenty of times. But Keith Law typically knows what he is talking about...
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I have to defend Dombrowski here. His job does involve looking at 2020 NOW. Not in 2020. Now! It may not be popular with the fans, but that is the cold, hard reality of his job. And that won’t change just because fans don’t like it. As the saying goes “Don’t listen to the people in the stands, or else you’ll wind up sitting with them.”...
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Like my thoughts, this assumes Grandal works really cheap...
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That might be reality. But teams do things like that all the time. Just because the Sox are among the biggest spenders doesn’t make them immune to budgets. The Dodgers also made a deal this off-season to unload salary. They’re notorious big spenders as well...
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Here’s the thing. There are at least two other teams with no closer and a big wallet - the Cubs and the Angels. And then there’s always those teams with closers who just want more in the bullpen. If DD can spend, I would think he’d have his guy by now. Waiting out Martinez only worked last year because no one else got involved. But in this closer market, there are too many other teams making calls. Waiting this out is doing nothing. There are still thee chairs left and two closers to sit down in this game of reverse musical chairs. Which makes me think - DD doesn’t want those big name multiyear guys. One year deals? (Herrera and/or Allen?) Maybe. Trades? Also important- see who is this year’s Moustakas - you know, will there be a guy who turned down a QO and still can’t get better offers than 1year $6mill. I think DD is hoping it’s Yasmani Grandal...
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Have you asked her about the meaning of life?
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Health. They’re not all injury prone types to miss 3 months each. But they do have their share of accident prone types who might miss a few weeks. There’s also a chance of them being susceptible more so to right handed pitching with that righty heavy lineup, but I’m not overly convinced. Machado-Judge-Stanton isn’t going to be a breeze for RHP. But also - they don’t have Machado yet. Have they even made an offer?
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I disagree. Eovaldi had had enough issues in the past that would have made me hesitant about guaranteeing $68mill to a pitcher whose only thrown 235 IP in the last 3 years combined. I could see going after Keuchel over a closer if starter was the goal. But I think spending $17mill AAV on Eovaldi when for $20mill you can have Kelly and Miller seemed a little wishful. Pearce isa WS hero, so it did make bringing him back palatable. But if the budget was the issue, why not let Chavis handle the RHH 1b role?
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And, let’s be real here, the fans, too.,,
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IfAlexa says so, then clearly there is no plan...
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U I think Dombrowski - like most GMs - values trying for a sustainable run of excellence over two quick titles. The attention span of most (all) fans is pretty short, and no matter how many times they hear about one title this year being enough to make them happy, we all know it isn’t to be believed. The Sox could win the World Series in2019, but if the 2020 team sucks, no one will mention 2019. Remember on BDC some fans complaining “this team hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2004 World Series!!”. That was in the preseason of 2007!!
