notin

The only point would be that is not necessarily the best path going forward. Especially since there is no Scherzer-type in the pending free agent class...

His similarity to Betts does not end with his multi-faceted stellar play. Franco also comes from a baseball family, as his uncles are Erick and Willy Aybar. Tampa might be able to look him up through his arb years and maybe buy out a year or two of free agency, at which time Franco will be 27-28 and still be able to cash in heaviy in free agency...

And those same pundits glowered over Lars Anderson. I prefer the Spx keep Casas and debut him in MLB some time next season. But I also know there is a chacne is is far from the special player we are being told he is, regardless of the hype he is getting now. And I think you might be rewriting a little history based on subsequent events if you think Casas is more highly-regarded than Benintendi was, since AB was the #1 overall prospect on both BA and MLB.com. And he didn't get that ranking based on his defense...

But he was incredible at age 31. If he was a free agent after posting a 2.22 ERA in 186 IP at 31 years old, what kind of deal would that get him today? And would the remainder of his career have justified it?

Interestingly, it was after that suspension that he posted a .941 OPS in AAA at age 22...

I'd say no on Lester, who was probably closer to the Tim Hudson/Roy Oswalt type of pitcher - very good but not heading to Cooperstown. Price probably had an outside shot when he was 30-31, but he was a borderline case...

YEs, but the issue is most pitchers don't do that. And usually the ones who do are not the same. Even Pedro Martinez posted a 3.54 ERA after his age 30 season and a 3.87 after his age 31 season. Certainly not bad, but worth $30mill? The problem is rarely the age 31 and 32 seasons. It's the age 34+ seasons. Keeping my Pedro example, after age 33 his ERA was 4.58. So with these longer deals for star pitchers, you have to hope they pay for themselves by about age 34 or so. because at some point, those pitchers will perform much worse while getting paid the same. (This is often why those contracts are heavily backloaded - they pay the pitcher less to build a better team around him while he is still good.) Scherzer was not the benchmark here, and was very much the rarest of cases...

That also sounds like a scouting report for Jon Signleton. Remember him? Stud Phillies' prospect ranked 4 times by BA, and posted a .941 OPS in AAA at 22. The Phillies dealt him to Houston as part of a package for Hunter Pence. Singleton was then given a huge extension by the Astros before he ever played a single game. He went on to post a .621 OPS in Houston in 420 PA over 2 years and was demoted and spent the next few seasons as a highly-paid minor league 1B who never played in MLB after age 23 and whom retired by age 29. This all went down a few years ago, but Singleton is actually still only 30 years old. Moral: There are no surefire regulars in the minors. I think the Sox should give Casas a chance, but I also think he is tradeable in the right deal. Lars Anderson isn't the only slugging 1B prospect in MLB to turn into a flop at the next level...

I assumed they meant Scherzer, not Greinke

Technically, he had said same incentive this season, but I can cut him some slack given his horrific health in 2020...

To me, a QO for ERod is an obvious move. I have my issues with him, but if the worst case scenario is he gets overpriced for a single season, I think the benefits far outweigh the risks...

Schwarber's bat will play well on any team, which does make him tough. At a minimum, I hope he is a fallback option for Boston if they are targetting a Semien/Baez type. I expect him to be the cheapr plan, and obvious reasons to bring him back are highlighted by his success and the team's succes with him here. If the Sox do not go for Semien or Baez and instead simply sign or extend Schwarber, I would certainly not complain. Unless it is some insane 7 year deal (alought Schwarber is far more likely to maintain his value for 7 years than, say, Gausman or Stroman. And possibly even Semien or Baez)..

He will very likely get paid. Possibly by his current employer, as they might be losing one $30mill pitcher to free agency in Kershaw. The wrinkle in this plan is Trevor Bauer, whom they clearly do not want, but also has a player option for $40mill. Obviously, the Dodgers would like to void that deal, but that gets into an area I have no idea about...

Agreed. I still think the best option might start with discussing the arbitration eligibles in Oakland. They will definitely be moving at least one of Montas, Bassitt and Manaea and possibly moving multiple starters simply for financial reasons...

Well, Ortiz was abour 4 years younger at the time and had about 800 fewer career PA's. And Schwarber also came to Boston already in proud possession of a World Series ring as he was in a lineup with former MVP Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Willson Contreras. Being in a good lineup is not something new to Schwarber like it was for Ortiz...

I will say his drafting certainly worked better than it has for previous clubs, which was nice. But as Sox GM, he also seems to come into an absolutely perfect situation. Cherington was constantly reducing budget before he could spend anything, and building upa farm system. DD stepped into a team witha very talented young core in Bogaerts/Betts/Bradley/Benintendi and a loaded farm system and handed a check book with a higher balance than any previous GM in team history. His predecessor was not allowed to sign pitchers over 30 and had to trade away a starting player just to accommodate Cody Ross. Cody Ross?!?!? And then he gets replaced by a guy who is allowed to drop a payroll equal to the GNP of Kiribati...

It really comes down to - should the Sox spend this off-season to fill a potential shortstop vacancy in 2023 or a potential DH vacancy in 2023? The DH position is typically the easier one to fill, but there are arguments for both sides....

And do what with Dalbec, whose OPS was over .900 since mid-June? They could re-sign him, but 1B might not be enough of a priority to justify him over the 2b/SS/Bogaerts situation. Schwarber is having a career year, although a normal season from him at the plate is actually still very good. One thing to his credit is, he certainly plays a lot for a player normally associated with a sketchy injury history. THere are certainly reasons to bring him back, but the big question to me is - is he the best option going forward? Are the Sox better off filling actual potential gaps or just re-arranging the bats they want? There is also the possibility that Schwarber prefers playing the OF or simply prefers not being a DH (and maybe prefers the NL?) But while it is a consideration, I can't really speak to that matter for him...

I think a QO for ERod makes a ton of sense. The Sox have two returning SP next season. If ERod accepts, they have 3. If he declines, they can still sign him, and possibly for less since he his market will shrink slightly. And if they fail, then they get a late first round pick. What is the downside here? And this is coming for someone who is not exactly enamored with ERod...

Iglesias might even be available ona minor league deal. He was released from a one year $3.5 mill contract this year, and is now a year older. He might have added something with his performance down the stretch for the Sox, but he is also one year older and is not the player teams used to pay to play stellar defense. I still think Semien/Baez type makes sense for the Sox. Both have plenty of experience at 2B and can play that position for one season until the Bogaerts situation is resolved. If Bogaerts extends or chooses not to opt out, then status quo going forward. If X leaves, Semien/Baez can return to SS and then the Sox try to fill 2B again, and possibly Jeter Downs can get himself back on track. Or they look externally if he doesn't. Either way, it buys a year to fill 2B. Arroyo lacks the durability to start every day but is a terrific bench option who has experience at 2b/3B/SS. His experience at 1B need never be repeated. But his presence makes it tough to justify a major league contract for Iglesias. Despite his massive slam last night, Schwarber is probably gone. JD has a year left. The Sox have Dalbec and Casas for 1B. And the OF is already too crowded with players under control for next season...

No sport should adopt the 2-2-1-1-1 format. The 2-3-2 is perfect. Each team has a benefit. The purpose of the location schedule is not to give one team an advantage. Why not a simple 4-3?

No Joe Kelly subplot?!?

.. unless he gets hurt.

Care to revisit?

Probably not much. He’ll probably attend the hearing with his MVP trophy…