moonslav59

Indeed, but again, Martin is not a closer and Pivetta will likely triple his IP in AUG & SEP, and this was all based on Nick doing well over the next 6 weeks.

It was 1st on my list. Again, we were talking as if we were going to trade and be sellers. It's hard to imagine you not knowing that.

True, and I have not called him a bust, either.

A lot of Sox fans at Cincy, including our good luck charm, Thunder.

Like Millar, Papelbon, Gomes and Manny.

Just win, baby!

Exactly, and hence this debate about Rafaela and Bello, who were both extended before knowing much for sure.

I wasn't calling him a bust. I was actually wondering, if we might trade for him.

I have agreed on this pint. It looks like none will be traded, unless it's a sideways move ML'er for ML'er in a higher need area. I don't see Pivetta, Jansen or Martin being traded. O'Neill probably won't be either, since he bats RH'd. We were just talking theoretical trade value in 6 weeks.

Agreed, and it depends on the other team needs, but if you go by fWAR which tolts heavily to more IP as having more value, Pivetta might be worth more.

I think the idea was to have extended him 2-3 years ago, maybe to age 32 or 33, at a less cost than he will get now.

Was 2023 a fluke for RHB Zack Gelof? He's really struggling, this year.

Good thing players don't make the trades.

Agreed, but not many of us were clamouring for those a couple years or more ago.

With so many teams in the playoff hunt, many need dependable SP'ers, and would jump at a SP'er with a 4.05 ERA since 2013 (110 ERA+) 4.09 FIP 1.13 WHIP Take a look at some rotations of contending teams. I'm not saying he'd net us a top 5 or 10 prospect, but I think he would bring back more than some seem to think he will. I do agree that Martin is a better pitcher, but he has some concerns, and not just about age decline, and he is not a closer. Pivetta can easily triple the IP Martin will et over the last 2 months of 2024. That has real value.

I'm not sure how many teams have a SP with an ERA+ of 103 (Pivetta's with the Sox) and a 4.24 FIP as their 4-5 SP'er. For many teams, these numbers beat their #3 SP'er. From 2023-2024 (27 GS and 22 RP games,) he has an ERA+ of 110 and an FIP of 4.09 (ERA 4.04.) That is worth something to many teams in contention and short a SP'er or two. From July 8 to today, there are 76 pitchers with 130+ IP. Here is where Nick ranks: 5th in K-BB% at 25.2% (just below Sale by 0.1%) 9th in xFIP at 3.13 (one of your favorite stats) 22nd in ERA- at 83 (just ahead of Gallen and Crawford) 26th in ERA at 3.63 31st in FIP at 3.78 (same as Crawford) 39th in fWAR at 2.2 My point was also about having a good 5-6 next starts to bring back his value, and not about his last few starts since returning from the IL.

I totally agree. If Cora leaves over money, I'm jumping on the anti-JH bandwagon.

This isn't about what others have gotten: your point was that if he hits .750, it would be an overpay. It would not, IMO. While the amount of errors he has made is frightening, the amount of plays he has made that maybe nobody or precious few would even make in their dreams numbers was more than 9. He's still listed as being a +4 OAA in CF. I tend to think he will get a grip on the errors, over time, and maybe playing less SS would help him improve in CF, but I guess we will have to agree to disagree on CR.

Yes, he'd be a good platoon guy with Valdez and or DHam. I agreed and still do.

Try re-reading my post. I said WE would eat 75-85%, meaning the other team 15-25%. If they get wink, they'd pay 25-35%. How is that 50% more?

.750 with his D, an overpay? I strongly disagree, especially as we know prices are going up and up. I'd say .700-.725 is worth it. His ability to play CF and SS well is of great value.

It won't be easy replacing Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and O'Neill's production at the same cost they were in 2024, but it should not take a lot more money to do so. Of course, with the bad luck/skills our GMs have had on spending, it's no sure bet we can spend double those 4 cost and even break even. One of the best parts about our upcoming budget is the lack of major arb raises in 2025. Many of our best players are still pre-arb, thanks to the significant farm infusion over the past 3 years (thanks DD and Bloom.) Nothing is for certain on these kids continuing to do well or the expected infusion of more top prospects onto the 26 and 40, but it sure looks better than it did in 2020, or even last year. IMO, JH is going to have to spend, and likely large and long on one or two players in the next 1-2 years, if we are going to have a real chance at being a top 3-4 team, again. If not, we will have to count on Brez being a genius to get us over the hump. We can't look at our roster and future roster and assume 100% health and continued growth for a big chunk of our players. It seems natural to expect some step backs, next year from some of these kids doing very well, this year. To me, our everyday players look set. We have depth at just about every position, except 1B. In some cases, counting top prospects in the mix, we go 3-4 deep. I do not think we can assume our pitching staff can keep this up without some major additions, and there don't seem to be a lot of top pitching prospects banging on the 26 man door. (Perales is out for over a year, and maybe Fitts is our best hope.) Losing Pivetta, Jansen and Martin will hurt. I'm not sure Pivetta has gotten the credit he deserves for being the most reliable and durable pitchers this team has had since we traded for him in 2020. He has not been great, and even was not very good for some stretches, but he took the ball every 5 days and gave the team a chance to win in a big chunk of his starts. While the team has mostly sucked, since Pivetta joined, the teams W-L record is 47-45 in his starts.

He's been at a .722 clip, the last 3 years, and his power dropped in these years, too. I'm not sure that is what we need, but he does kill lefties, so maybe he fits the need. A platoon with Valdez or DHam might work well. I'm thinking, if we are buyers, we'd look for SP'er depth, so we don't need any more pen games. With Campbell, Wink and Hendriks (Aug 1st?) around, maybe we don't look to add a pen arm. A lot can happen between now and then, and our needs could change, but as of now, I'd say they are: 1. SP (a solid #3 type or better would be ideal, but perhaps too costly for Brez to get) 2. RHB who plays 2B or SS 3. SP depth Trading a LHB OF for a RHB might be a possibility, but nobody wants to see Abreu or Duran dealt away.

Well, the Rafaela extension is looking better, now, than it was a month ago. Bello needs to have a summer like 2023 to bring up the talk on him.

I'm thinking it will take us eating 75-85% of the contract for there to be a taker. Now, maybe we include Winckowski and get a team to pay 25-35%.