Maybe 6th to 12th, if I had to guess.
I don't think JH will ever spend like a handful of maniac owners are, now. 6th might be tops, unless some of these big spenders start wanting to reset.
No doubt, the big cut to the budget for 2024 sucks. I think we all are unhappy with this turn, but look at this selected group of team spending over the last few years, and determine where the biggest changes were made. (Hint: it's not cuts to the Sox budget.)
'24 Team 2021
308M NYM 201
307M NYY 205
250 HOU 194
245 PHI 197
232 TEX 96
230 ATL 153
228 LAD 265
227 CHC 144
226 TOR 150
197 SFG 172
183 BOS 187
I'm not defending the fact that we are not spending more, each year, but we are spending about the same, while others have even doubled their spending in 3 years (TEX) or gone up by 40-50% (NYM, NYY, ATL, CHC, TOR.)
That's 5 teams that have spent at absurd or near absurdly higher levels than just 3 years ago. I don't expect JH to match their absurdity.
He could, however, spend more. He could spend up to the tax line and go over by a little, every other year or 2 years in a row, from time to time. (He has done that in the past, and has often pulled back on spending to reset, sometimes staying under the line for a couple years.)
The tax line is $237, this year. Spenind $236M would place the Sox 5th. $226 would place us 9th. $198M would bump us up one slot, overtaking SFG for 10th.
The big unknown is what we will do in 2025 or 2026. Nobody knows.