moonslav59

Tell me you or anyone disagrees: (Maybe not in this order) 1. Pitching 2. Pitching 3. Pitching 4. Catcher and corner IF defense 5. RHB

You are doing a great job. Relax. Although Sox fans can be brutal, we generally aren't towards people not in charge of the Sox.

Bello might be considered a number 3, too. I agree, we need an ace most of all, but we could also use another Bello or Pivetta or a "3 type SP'er."

We know where we need help.

I've always felt a line-up is better with a mix of batting styles that includes some "aggressive -type" batters. We have Devers and Rafaela. Other batters may K, too much, but I would not call them free swingers. Maybe they can help Rafaela improve his discipline, but sometimes trying to tweak a batter's whole syle can backfire.

No doubt, Bloom failed on his drafting of pitching, but the idea of drafting the best available player has a wide following among GMs. It's sad to say that maybe his best pitching choices was not trading Houck or Crawford and trading for Pivetta and Wink, along with the Rule 5 pick of Whitlock. I will say, draft picks often take 3-6 years to make an impact, so the jury may still be out. His drafts rounds: 2020 (only 4 picks total): 4 Wu-Yelland, 5 Drohan 2021: 4 E R-C looks promising, 8 Dobbins & Guerrero, too. 2022: 3 Rogers, 5 Dean, 6 Hoppe, 10 I Coffey and 12 Mullins all look like long shots. 2023: 4 Duffy, 5 Early, 9 Wehunt and 14 Ingrassia look faw away. IFAs: Paez & Nunez "21, Portes '22 (traded away by Brez) & Cohen, C Lee & A Bates in '23 and in 2024, D Reyes looks promising. Overall, these were Bloom's major and decent+ additions to the Sox pitching system (farm + MLB) Pivetta, Wink & Robles (trade) Whitlock (Rule 5) Kelly, Bernardino, Schreiber (MiLB FA/Waivers) FA: Jansen, martin, Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Paxton was okay for $10M This list is not impressive, at all.

Outstanding post, Max. 100% spot on. Certainly, paying so much of our spending budget on players not giving us much value, if anything is a major reason for our lack of success. That is on the GM/CBO's. Not spending enough is the other major reason and that is on JH & Co. It has really been a tag team event since and including DD's final year with the Sox. Here is a look at some of the failed big contracts by year, starting with 2019 (in $millions): 31 Price began his steep decline, 21 Porcello had a god-awful season, 17 Nate (5.99 ERA in just 12 GS), 15 Pedey (nada) and 15 Sale (4.40 in 25 GS) In some ways, the 2019 saw the biggest waste of big money contracts over a long period of time... more than any year of Bloom, Brez and maybe even Ben & Theo. 2020 was a total disaster and was Sale's first extension year (25.6M and 0 GS). Even JD 22M hit .680. 17 Nate did okay but missed 25% of his starts. 14 Pedey gave nada, 8 ERod sat out the year. The 6.5 spent on Martin Perez pales when compared to those listed ahead of him, but was still a bad choice by Bloom. 2021 was the feather in Bloom's cap, but in reality, we still saw a lot of wasted salary, including the $10M Bloom paid Richards and 5.5 on Perez. We also saw... 25.6 on 9 starts by Sale and 8.3 on ERod's 4.74 ERA. The others pulled their weight, so this was one of the better years for least amount of sunken cost, and it's no fluke, we did well. 2022 saw another 25.6 wasted on Sale's 2 GS. 17 Nate did okay but missed 12 GS, 23.3 on Story missed, badly (Bloom,) 22 JD was down at .790. The $12M spent on JBJ and 7 on Kike hurt, as well. The 9 Barnes extension fell apart mid season. (Bloom did okay with the Wacha, Hill, Strahm and Renfroe deals) 2023 saw yet another letdown by 25.6 Sale w only 20 GS and a not-so-great 4.30 ERA. 23.3 on Story was another year missed. Bloom's 18 on Yoshida, 10 on Kluber and 10 on Kike were near or total busts. (Bloom did okay with themis to lower deals like 16 Jansen, 11 Turner, 7.5 Martin & 7 Duvall. 2024 saw a frighteningly low amount of additions, especially large ones. Brez's 19.5 on Gio was a complete wiff. Paying 17 for Sale to win the Cy Young w ATL was worse than a total bust. 23.3 on Story (Bloom) was yet another wasted year. 18 on Yoshi looked a little better, but he missed time and still has not earned his contract for 2024, alone. 16 on Jansen was okay, 7.5 on Martin was not. (Only the 6 paid for O'Neill and 1 for Criswell worked out well.) 5 Hendriks gave us zero for 2024. I'm not going to total all this up, but it has been a huge percentage of our budget.

It really has been a big kick in the gut of Sox Nation. When you look at as a one-two gut punch with the Betts trade, it sickens me. We'd be 2-3 games up in the WC race and breathing down BAL's neck for 2nd in the division. Visiting this thread should have a health warning attached to it.

#1 Georgia just barely beat Kentucky 13-12!

He did not help, but this all started when we let Kimbrel & Kelly go with no replacements, and the budget, especially on big ticket pitchers was slashed and slashed. IMO, there is no doubt JH caused the pitching issues we face now. Also, here are some interesting numbers that cast doubt on the claims that are pitching is getting worse: Team fWAR Pitching by year: since 2017: 23.2 '17 18.5 '18 16.5 '19 (a massive 3 yr decline of 6.7) 20.4 '21 (under Bloom was better than '18 & '19) 10.1 '22 (an unforgivable and horrible cliff dive by JH & BLOOM) 13.7 '23 13.9 '24 (projected) So, a 6.7 decline in DD's last 3 yrs and a 2.8 decline in Bloom's 4 yrs (16.5 to 13.7 in 2023.) Now, we got so horrible in 2020 (0.1) and then very good in 2021, that the drop from 2021 to 2024 is almost as bad as DD's 3 year drop. (20.4 to 13.9 under Brez, or a 6.5 drop.) One can see it as cherry-picking to point out our improvement since the terrible 2022 season (10.1 to 13.9 and a 3.8 fWAR gain.) I also want to point to defense NOT pitching. SIERA is a metric used to like FIP, or in other words, taking the defense out of the ERA. 3.77 2017 3.72 2018 (Best in 10 yrs) 4.24 2019 (Restgate & no K & K) 4.58 Covid year (Year 1 under Bloom: No Sale or ERod) Now watch... 4.00 '21 (Bloom's second year and better than 2019- Bloom.) 3.98 '22 (So, maybe not so bad pitching, afterall- Bloom.) 4.10 '23 (got worse, but still better than '19-Bloom) 3.94 '24 (best year since 2018- BREZ) I gotta think the 3.94 shows improvement, but when you see the drop off over the last 4 months, that becomes questionable. 2024's ERA- of 96 is the best since 2018. (2019 was 97 and 2023 was 100.) Another stat that shows improvement, Please don't take this to mean I am content with our pitching "improvement." I'm not at all. I'm only highlighting how the defense is a major cause of our decline in run prevention, while our pitching needed to be improved by way more than it was. I'm hopeful that a healthy Story can make a big improvement in 2025, as he would also push Rafaela to more playing time in CF (or even 2B.) I think our 2B defense will improve with Campbell and DHam taking over the most innings on D from E Valdez- one of the worst defensive 2Bman I have ever seen. C, 3B and 1B need improvement, bigtime, but I doubt we add anyone or shift these guys around to new positions in 2025. 1

It's hard to know, if the SEA GM covets any of our bats we can afford to part with. If they insist on Anthony or Campbell, we may have to cave in. They may not even like Casas or Abreu. They may not want Yoshi at $3M a year. It's just hard to know. If JH wasn't such a miser, we could take on salary dumps like Haniger and or Garver, not because we want or need them, but just to lessen the return value demanded by SEA. Both are also RHBs and offer some hope of a bounce back season in '25. (Garver could serves as a 3rd string catcher, too.) Who knows, maybe they really want someone like DHam or Rafaela, but I doubt it. We have a lot to offer, and they have 5 really good SP'ers. Seems like a fit, to me.

Hard to disagree. I will say this... Signing Story and letting Bogey walk was an effort to improve the defense. Signing Jansen and Martin was a good strategy, 2 years back. Signing Gio was the largest contract given to a SP'er since the Sale & Nate contracts prior to 2019. (That's not saying much, but it was a better attempt than the $5-10M/1 deals offered to new blood pitchers every winter since 2017. I'm in no way defending JH & Co. Gio was way too little, especially in light of trading away Sale and the loss of 19 starts Paxton had in 2023. We added Slaten, Weissert and I Campbell along with Criswell, and thought that was enough. The absurdity is overwhelming.

Boy, MIN is playing like crap. They sure gave other teams a shot at the dance. Too bad, we dropped the ball, and two teams are now between us and MIN. Still, a sliver of hope... 78-70 MIN 76-73 DET -2.5 75-73 SEA (Tied in the 8th) -3.0 pending game 75-74 BOS -3.5

We all agree on this- a rarity on this site.

Indeed. If we find out SEA has no interest in Yoshi, even with cash, then work on something else to pry a pitcher from them. Abreu and Grissom/DHam will not be nearly enough. It would likely take Casas or a top 4 prospect as the centerpiece. I'm willing to do that, if need be. I'm thinking Yoshi is not desired, even at a low cost, so Casas might be our best option. harmony does not think they'd want Mayer, and Anthony or Campbell fill needs we have. SEA has a great catcher, so I doubt Teel is a big want. Casas and Abreu for Miller might work. Casas, Abreu and Yoshi for Miller, Haniger and Garver might work.

Think of it this way, would you be happy, if the Sox signed a FA Castillo for $21.6M x 3 years? I know I would be. He does turn 32 and may have been showing signs of decline, but he still worth it, IMO. If I were the GM of SEA and had to trade a pitcher to improve the offense, I'd keep the other 4 and trade Castillo for offense. Then, take the money saved to add another bat via free agency. Taking back salary kind of defeats that aspect of the idea, but if you can get two bats for him, then it may be worth it.

ND won 66-7 over Purdue, who is not a good team. Steve Angeli went 6 for 9 for 100 yrds and 2 TDs. We had two 100 yards runners: Love & leonard. Price ran for 86 yards on 8 carries. The ground game was a mega mismatch: 362 yards to 38 for Purdue. LSU barely beat South Carolina and Missouri sneaked by 24th ranked BC. It doesn't look like any major shake-ups, this week. It kinda sucks in college football, when your team has an early season loss, especially to a bad team.

I'm loving it. The articles are great. It seems like they fuel more discussion and seem unbiased and factual. The only thing I dislike, and it's no big deal, is it seems harder to find the most recent posts than the last format, especially when the game thread is in full use. I have to find the game thread category, click on it, then click on the game, then the latest post. I'm not sure this is something that needs to be fixed. It's a minor inconvenience for me. I'd like to say, kudos to you and your writers for taking this on. Great job!

I conceded the improvement might just be "incremental" and that better than crap cans still be crappy, but how quickly can a new management team turn around a whole system? My point was that the farm additions of Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Slaten and Wink were better than the previous 5 or more years. The incoming farm infusion for the end of 2024 and into the start of 2026, looks better than it has looked in many years (Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Sandlin, Guerrero and maybe a couple others.) The longer range pitchers are almost total speculation, but we have more promising pitchers than we have in this group for maybe 10 years. I'm fine with calling it incremental. I'm first in line to say we need vast improvement. I am encouraged by drafting more pitchers and drafting them higher than past years as a sign we are trying, anyway. After drafting Montgomery, who almost everyone thinks was a lock-solid pick, we spent our bonus money as such: $2.0M Tolle (2nd pick) $1.25M Cason (8th pick) $700K Neely (3rd) $400K Clarke (5th) $300K Aita (6th) That's ober $4.6M on pitchers 2 through 8 picks and just $750K on non pitchers (Ehrhard 4th and Turner 7th) That looks like s hift, to me. It may not work, but the effort looks pretty clear, to me. (Now, if Cason turns out to not be a pitcher, the numbers shift to $2M for batters and $2.4 for pitchers.)

I love this article, and I'm a fan or Rafaela, who still liked the extension we gave him. While I do agree than an OF of Duran-Anthony and Abreu looks better, on paper, I'd modify it to put Rafaela in CF and Anthony in RF vs LHPs. To piggyback on the point about the short-coming of Yoshida at DH, I'd much prefer to see this alignment: LF: Duran (Ref/Abreu) CF: Rafaela (Duran/Anthony) RF: Anthony (Abreu/Ref in short RF parks, only) DH: Abreu-Ref platoon. Sit Rafaela vs some or many tough RHPs and maybe DH E Valdez, if he's on the 26 and go with the OF suggested in many games with RH'd SP'ers. Vs LHPs, Rafaela is playing over Abreu in 100% of the games.

Pointing out that our offense is doing very well is not misleading, though. We all know there is more to winning than good hitting. Perhaps, Sox fans know this more than any other city's fanbase. Our offense has also done poorly in situations like with RISP and with Men on Base and high leverage situations, but we both agree those types of stats are not a sustainable thing or a skillset. It's not misleading to point out really bad defense and a pitching staff in steep decline from the first few weeks of 2024 is the main reason we are only at .500, either. Good hitting, average pitching and horrible D puts us at about .500. It is what it is.

It's not a strategy. I am recommending we add 3-4 solid pitchers to our staff- maybe even 5, which is more than many suggest. I have always advocated quality over quantity as a "strategy," so this is not my chosen method. I am just pointing out that the quantity of pitching prospects showing some "hope" is high that I think it's been in a very long time, and that this is not a bad thing. I am also aware that guys like Houck and Crawford were once considered "hopes" more than sure bet quality pitching prospects. Back then, we have very little quality and quantity, and I am seeing improvement, even if just incremental. Soxprospects.com top ranked pitchers: NOV '22: 6 Mata, 8 Walter, 10 Perales, 12 Wikelman, 13 Murphy, 19 E R-C, 22 Seabold, 23 Ward, 25 German, 26 Drohan, 27 Kelly NOV '20: 3 Mata, 7 Houck, 8 Ward, 9 Seabold, 10 Aldo Ramirez, 11 Song, 12 Groome, 18 Murphy NOV '18: 3 Groome, 5 DHern, 7 Mata, 10 Feltman, 12 Shawaryn, 16 Lakins NOV '16: 4 Groome, 5 Kopech, 8 Johnson, 16 Raudea, 17 TBall, 19 Shawaryn NOV '14: 2 Owens, 5 ERod, 6 Johnson, 7 Barnes, 9 Ranaudo, 11 TBall, 14 Kopech, 19 Stanki NOV '12: 2 Barnes, 4 Webster,, 8 Owens, 10 D Britton, 11 Workman, 13 Johnson, 14 A Wilson, 15 Ranaudo, 19 Pimental, 20 P Light Granted, better than crap can still be crap or pretty crappy, but how quickly do you think a farm pitching staff can be significantly improved? I think the in-home pitchers we have added over the last 5 years are better than the previous 5+ yrs: Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Bello, Wink, Salten and others. I think the ML ready or near ML ready pitching prospects are better now than in the last 10+ years: Priester, Fitts, Dobbins, Guerrero, Penrod, Sandlin and others like Wikelman/Gambrell/Rogers/Mata/Murphy/Hoppe/I Coffey. I think the pitching pipeline that is more than 1.5 years away is also better or more promising than it has been in over 10 years: Perales, Monegro, Tolle, E R-C, Valera, Cason, Early, Mullins, Paez, D Reyes, Neely, Wehunt, Bastardo, Clarke, Tygart, Dean, Carlson, I, too, wish we had a better pitching pipeline but it is better or improving in all 3 areas I broke down, and I think Brez and Bailey are rightly focusing on it. In less than a year, they added Fitts, Priester, Slaten, Sandlin, Judice and way more pitchers drafted than years beforehand. Draft slots on pitchers: 2024: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8 (paid 3rd biggest bonus) 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18 & 20 (6 in top 10 and 11 in top 16) 2023: 4, 5 (after 2 comp picks in 4th) 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, 16, 1, 20 (4 in top 10 and 7 in top 16) 2022: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20 (6 in top 10 and 10 in 16) 2021: 4 in top 10 and 6 in 16 2020: #3 and #4 out of 4 losts total. 2019: 5 in 10 & 9 in 16 2018: 3 in 10 (6, 7 & 8) and 7 in 16 2017: 5 in 10 and 8 in 16. This was the last year, we seemed to focus highly on pitching: 1B Kopech, 3 Cosart, 4 McAvoy, 7 Reilly, 9 Steen. I still think 2024 tops 2017.

The Sox have apparently pre-empted their Rule 5 protection choices by adding several players to the 40 before the 2024 season ends. Fiits, Guerrero and now Penrod, who I viewed a sa bubble protectee. My view of possible Rule 5 protectees to come: 3 Locks: Dobbins, Fulmer, Monegro 3 Possible: Jh Garcia (I'd protect him.) Gambrell, Liu 6 Long Shots: Bastardo, Castro, Jordan, Hickey, Sikes, Troye I think we add 4 to the 40 with Jh Garcia being the 4th. With 7 FAs coming off the 40 (not counting 60 Day IL Paxton) and 6 IL palyers needing to be added (Gio, Hendriks, Whitlock, Mata, Murphy & I Campbell,) we will need to DFA or trade 3 to make room for the 4. I think these might be the 3: 1. Shugart 2. Gasper 3. Horn or Sogard, Murphy, Booser or Mata I don't see a roster crunch, until we add our 3rd or 4th FA, and even then, it does not seem to be a big issue. We might also trade 2 for 1 or one for a non 40 prospect.

It's a big assumption to count on JH seeing it as a "ton of room." You and I agree there should be a ton of room, but I've thought that for several years, now, and it never turns out that way. Our biggest spending winters were offset by our biggest contracts lost: Betts 1/2 Price and Porcello in 2020. We added a lot of contracts in 2022, but lost Pedey & JBJ. The winter before 2023 was a joke. We lost JD and Nate plus Kike, Wacha, Hill & Strahm. This past summer saw a net drop in payroll, despite adding Gio & O'Neill.