moonslav59

This week's games: 1 ORE v MD 2 GA at 16 Ole Miss 3 Ohio St v Purdue 4 Miami at GA Tech 5 Texas v FL 6 Tenn v MS St 6 Penn St v WA 9 ND v FL St 9 BYU at UT 12 Boise St v Nevada 13 AL at 14 LSU 18 Army at No Texas IN is off.

He was saying his post was a joke about discriminating against women, since there are none in MLB.

This post is not meant to support any opinion that our pitching staff does not need some major additions, this winter. IT DOES and in a BAD WAY! The one area where I think we can be a plus, is with ML depth, assuming we add 3-4 quality pitchers and move others down in the depth chart to places where they can be a plus and not a big question mark. Rotation: Houck enters the first of 3 arb seasons. One could view him as a reason why now is the start of a 3 year window that could go longer. Bello is signed for 5 more years with a team option 6th year. Crawford is year one arb, like Houck, but he has 4 arb years. That's a pretty decent core 3, but none are sure aces, and 2 could be viewed as 4/5 types. Gio has one year left, but his salary should make replacing him, seemless or even easy to upgrade. Criswell might have been a flash, but offers nice looking depth. Fitts, Priester and Dobbins should be able to provide nice depth, even if just 1-2 come through. To me, we need a #1 or two solid #2/3 types. Long Relief (perhaps spot starters): Those who don't start from the above group could fill this role, like Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins or even Crawford or Bello, if we add a starter or two, of someone like Fitts replaces of of the expected 5 starters, Of course, an injury is almost certain, so we should not plan on any of these guys as pen depth. That leaves Whitlock (2 years signed.) He could really thrive in this role or a short relief, high leverage role. Winckowski can also be a decent long man. I think we need to assume Mata is gone, since he is out of options. Short Relief: Whitlock, Slaten and Hendriks could all be fighting for the closer and top set-up slots on the 2025 roster, but I feel we need to fill the closer slot with a roster addition. These three would all be decent set-up men, and if we could use Whitlock for 2-3 inning relief situations and Hendriks & Slaten as the top 2 set-up men, our pen could be a plus. Add two quality pen arms, like Scott & Hoffman, and our pen could be a clear plus. Closer: Scott. Set-up: Hoffman, Hendriks & Slaten. Long man/high leverage: Whitlock and maybe Wink. That's a pretty solid 5-6 pen core. Relief Depth: Here is where we really gain by adding 2 RP'ers and 1-2 SP'ers. The pitchers we have, all get pushed down 1-4 slots, where their roles fit better to their skill levels. Houck becomes a #2 not a #1, and so on... More importantly, a SP'er or two gets pushed to SP'er depth or the pen gets lengthened, and our current closer becomes our set up guy, and so on. We could have a very long list, and our AAA pen could look a lot like our 2024 ML pen. If 6-7 of our pen is filled with pitchers mentioned above, including 3-4 outside additions, we can choose 1-2 from this list to fill the 7 and or 8 slot in the pen. The rest are minor league depth: Fulmer, Bernardino, Weissert, I Campbell, Booser Kelly, Guerrero, Penrod, Shugart (SP depth used in the pen: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins) This looks like decent SP and RP depth, even if 2 guys are on the IL.

With Pivetta, Jansen and Martin about to depart, our pitching staff got worse but much younger and cheaper. Those three cost $33M in 2024 ($31M on CBT.) That may not seem a like a huge number, but when you figure Gio at $19.25M did not even pitch in 2024, the rest of the 2024 pitching staff that actually pitched combined for a fraction of those 3's cost. (Hendriks and Fulmer did not pitch, either and Whitlock started just 4 games.) Now, if we do little to replace their value, both in terms of their skill value and their financial cost, we will not see an improved staff. Gio, Hendriks, Fulmer plus more of Whitlock, does not seem nearly enough to cancel out the big 3 losses. In some ways, Pivetta has been our most dependable and productive SP'er since 2021. One major reason for that is that one year signings and young pitchers not in the rotation since 2021, but the fact is, he has been the closest thing to a dependable SP'er we've had in over 5 years. Jansen and Martin have been light years better than the next best RP'er in the last 5-6 seasons- easily. These losses CANNOT be taken lightly. One of my biggest fears is that the Sox upper brass has convinced themselves that Gio, Whitlock, Hendriks and Fulmer can come close to replacing what we lost. The way I see it, even if we assume they can come close, and we SHOULD NOT, we'd still just be back at status quo and a .500 team, at best. Even the very best teams look to improve their team on paper, every year. We need to double their efforts. Before any additions, our pitching budget is very low (AAV listed) : $19.25M x 1 Giolito $9,2M x 5 Bello (w option for 2030) $5M x 1 Hendriks $4.7M x 2 Whitlock 1st ARB Year: Houck and Crawford (Only Wink is arb eligible for 2026.) There is no excuse for not spending on pitching. When you see what we paid for Jansen plus Martin, paying for Tanner Scott should be very reasonable. (The Athletic projects $

Trade for Pablo Lopez, sign Martinez, Scott and Hoffman, add a decent defensive catcher, and wait for the kids to steal some FT jobs from this opening day roster (assuming Abreu, Arias and Dobbins for Lopez.) C: __add__ & Wong (Teel?) 1B: Casas (Devers, if Campbell, Meidroth or Grissom to 3B) 2B: Grissom-DHam platoon (Campbell) SS: Story, Romy (Mayer) 3B: Devers (Campbell or Meidroth) LF: Duran-Refsnyder CF: Rafaela-Duran (Campbell) RF: Anthony (Campbell) DH: Yoshida-Refsnyder (E Valdez) SP: Lopez, Houck, Martinez, Bello, Gio-Crawford (Fitts, Priester, Criswell) RP: Scott, Hoffman, Hendriks, Whitlock, Slaten, Crawford, Criswell, Fulmer/Fitts/Guerrero/Wink/Bernardino/Weissert/Penrod/I Campbell/Kelly Call me a homer, but to me, this looks real good. Plus, it's not so expensive that it seems undoable. AAV: $18.4 Lopez, $15.2M Scott, $11.3M Martinez, $9.1M Hoffman = under $55M If we can dump Yoshida and save $7M a year, the total AAV add would be about $47M, which would be under the tax line.

With Pivetta, Jansen and Martin about to depart, our pitching staff got worse but much younger and cheaper. Those three cost $33M in 2024 ($31M on CBT.) That may not seem a like a huge number, but when you figure Gio at $19.25M did not even pitch in 2024, the rest of the 2024 pitching staff that actually pitched combined for a fraction of those 3's cost. (Hendriks and Fulmer did not pitch, either and Whitlock started just 4 games.) Now, if we do little to replace their value, both in terms of their skill value and their financial cost, we will not see an improved staff. Gio, Hendriks, Fulmer plus more of Whitlock, does not seem nearly enough to cancel out the big 3 losses. In some ways, Pivetta has been our most dependable and productive SP'er since 2021. One major reason for that is that one year signings and young pitchers not in the rotation since 2021, but the fact is, he has been the closest thing to a dependable SP'er we've had in over 5 years. Jansen and Martin have been light years better than the next best RP'er in the last 5-6 seasons- easily. These losses CANNOT be taken lightly. One of my biggest fears is that the Sox upper brass has convinced themselves that Gio, Whitlock, Hendriks and Fulmer can come close to replacing what we lost. The way I see it, even if we assume they can come close, and we SHOULD NOT, we'd still just be back at status quo and a .500 team, at best. Even the very best teams look to improve their team on paper, every year. We need to double their efforts. Before any additions, our pitching budget is very low (AAV listed) : $19.25M x 1 Giolito $9,2M x 5 Bello (w option for 2030) $5M x 1 Hendriks $4.7M x 2 Whitlock 1st ARB Year: Houck and Crawford (Only Wink is arb eligible for 2026.) There is no excuse for not spending on pitching. When you see what we paid for Jansen plus Martin, paying for Tanner Scott should be very reasonable. (The Athletic projects $15M x 4, a smaller AAV than Jansen, alone.) Signing Scott plus Estevez ($11M AAV projected) or Hoffman ($9M AAV) should be doable. If we do nothing to add to the rotation, we simply MUST bolster the pen in a BOLD way. I'd feel a lot better adding a second tier SP'ers, if we take care of the pen, as I suggested we do, above. (Projected cost) Nick Martinez ($13.3M x 3) J Quintana ($14M x 2) Kikuchi ($14M x 3) Wacha ($18 x 3) Nate ($21 x 2) Flaherty or Manaea ($22.5M x 3) Many here might feel Scott, Hoffman and Nick Martinez is asking for .500, again, but I think this might be just enough to get us to the playoffs with a chance to do more. Make a trade, like Abreu, DHam & Dobbins for Pablo Lopez, and I think we can say we are pretty close to the same level of any other AL team, before we see what they add.

Good thread, Bell. So many 4-3 WS losses really helps the overall record. We've never lost a WS by even a 2-4 record. That is pretty amazing. We are 16-3 in our last 4 WS. Combined there is not enough losses for even one series loss.

Maybe not the Pirates, but we are already near or under the halfway mark, depending on who you use as a source. Bottom 10 tier is where I think a couple posters think we are headed. I am answering the couple posters who are saying we will be cutting the budget, like it's a done deal. My position is, we don't know, and that I am not expecting an increase. JH's trend has been to go up and down. It went up in '21 and '22 (yes from a massive down in '20.) I'm not sure why some are so sure it will keep going down. The rankings aspect does depend on what other teams do. I'm not sure many of the bottom 10 teams are going to start spending big, all of a sudden, so I'm not so sure we can or will keep dropping, unless JH does "keep cutting." I'm still holding onto a hope that someday JH spends big, again, but I doubt it is this winter, and I won't be surprised if he never does again. The outlays made for Story, Yoshida and Devers can be seen as encouraging, in terms of a willingness to spend on single players, but within the context of what we lost, it barely a drop in the bucket. Here is what has changed. Back in 2017 & 2018, we had a bunch of young and low cost players filling the roster, and some high-priced players filling the gaps. We knew the young players would be reaching their big paydays, and some sort of day of reckoning was going to happen. The young player spigot ran dry between Devers and Houck, but DD was able to use some over-hyped prospects to fill other gaps via key trades. After 2018, the dynamic changed, more quickly than almost all of us thought it would. The prospect pipeline began to help, some, but we had too many holes to fill. I think JH saw this and felt like the amount of spending needed to get us back to glory, quickly was just too much. The 2021 season might have made him think he didn't need to spend to be "good enough" to keep fans happy. Now, I see a solid young foundation at the ML level, with very few players even just starting their arb years. The situation is actually quite remarkable, in this sense. The next "day of reckoning is more than 3 years away, in terms of players on the 26, now. Couple this with a top 2-3 farm system in all of MLB, and I find it hard to imagine this not being viewed as a window opening. IMO, it can begin in 2025, with just 3 targeted additions that could be expensive or if we fill 1-2 slots by trade, costly in terms of advanced future outlooks. It really is crucial for JH to allow spending and or big trades to happen, again. When and if he does is the million dollar question. We may be able to get close with just minimal investment and shrewd management, but I think we all feel something bold needs to be done to get us over the top. Almost all our past rings took something bold, with maybe 2013 being the exception... maybe. I hope JH realizes how close we are, and that windows rarely stay open as long as we hope they do. To me, the time is NOW. With JH, the question is... "How Soon Is Now?"

He WAS "elite. He's not anymore. DRS" +9 in '20 and +11 in '21, then +1, -1, +1 OAA: +4, +4, 2, 0 -3 2020-2021: +20 DRS, +7 OAA, +9.9 UZR/150 2022-2024: +1 DRS (not elite) -2 OAA (negative) +0.3 UZR/150 (not elite) The 3 year sample size is large enough to see that he is NO LONGER elite. He's barely plus. (2023-2024 is 0 DRS and -4 OAA)

Well, 32 GS for 3 years in a row is nice. ERA+ of 114 since 2020 (3.70 ERA and 3.48 FIP) 1.165 WHIP 10 Ks per 9 4.2 K/BB 13th in fWAR. Is that a number one, to you. Top 20 in FIP and xFIP His 89 ERA- is better than Nola, Kirby & Gilbert and just a little worse than Nate & Rodon This guy is for real. He's only 28 (Turns 29 in June.)

Could be. Adding Kikuchi, or Flaherty plus Nick Martinez & Scott should get us to above .500 and into the playoffs, but knowing our luck, we'll be at .500 again. I would say ... Kikuchi> Pivetta Martinez > the scrub pen games Scott> 2024 Jansen Hendriks> 2024 Martin Gio might push someone to the pen. Story > Rafaela at SS Anthony, Campbell, Mayer and others > what we had in 2024. I think adding 3 like this is about the minimum we could do to make me have hope for 2025.

#11 Iowa St looks like they are out of the running, losing to Texas Tech. #10 Texas A & M lost to So Carolina 44-20.. #11 Clemson lost to Louisville 33-21 #13 Indiana stayed undefeated an should be in the top 12, this week. #17 K St lost to HOU #18 Pitt lost 48-11 to #20 SMU. The new rankings might be... 1. Oregon, 2. Ohio St. 3. Georgia, 4. Miami, 5. Texas, 6. Tenn, 7. BYU, 8. Penn St. 9. Notre Dame 10. Indiana 9-0 11. Alabama 6-2 12. Boise St 7-1 13. Ole Miss 7-2 14.. SMU 8-1 15. LSU 6-2 16. Army 8-0

Cots has us almost $80M under the tax line, but they have not been so accurate, of late. If the number is $80M, Soto and Burnes might come to that. If Brez was given $70-75M to spend, according to the projected contracts by The Athletic, we could do wonders. Here are but a few examples: A) 29 Fried, 16 O'Neill, 15 Scott, 11 Estevez B) 42 Soto, 18 Wacha, 15 Scott C) 21 Nate, 18 Wacha, 15 Scott, 9 Hoffman, 9 C Holmes D) 21 Nate, 15 Scott, 13 N Martinez, 11 Estevez, 9 Hoffman Then,,, I woke up. I asked at $40-45M and now $70-75M, what if it's $30-35M? 15 Scott , 13 N Martinez, $9M Hoffman (OK, that's $37M)

Getting JH to sign just one of these two is likely impossible.

I was assuming the Abreu+DHam for Lopez deal, involved us paying full price.

#4 Ohio St beat #3 Penn St, but Penn St should still be in the top 12. #5 MIA keeps rolling over bad to mediocre teams. #15 Boise St keeps hanging around, winning today and are at 7-1. #19 Ole Miss crushed Arkansas at Ark. #21 Army went to 8-0, and if the finish undefeated, if might be hard to keep them out of the top 12. (They play ND and Navy.) Maybe we see an upset in a late game. ND has the day off.

I think MIN can get better than Abreu + DHam from some other team. I'm not sure adding Wink or Priester, or even Fitts will be a better offer than they get, elsewhere, but am not onboard with giving up Campbell, Mayer or Anthony for Lopez. I'd have to think hard about Teel, but maybe any two from Arias, Bleis and Cespedes might work. Would you give Abreu & Arias for Lopez?

While I really like The Dugo for Fitts (and others) and Yorke for Priester trades, I think we need to look for higher level young pitching that who they are. I doubt we part with Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Teel or Monty, and I'm not sure Arias, Cespedes, Bleis and Jh Garcia, even if combined can bring back what we need. Better than Fitts or Priester? Probably, but not a #2 or 3. Pitchers like Pablo Lopez, Gausman or Luis Castillo might need less of a return package, due to their contracts, but with an assumed tight budget for Brez, this winter, I'm not sure we can make their contracts fit. Most are cheaper than a FA would cost, now, but not by a lot. It might look better to keep the kids and just sign a tier two SP'er like Martinez, Flaherty or Kikuchi. I like the idea of trading for an ace and spending the FA money on Scott or Estevez plus another good one like Hoffman, Holmes or ____.

I'd even add to the Pablo trade to get him. Offer their choice from Wink, Mata, Shugart, Wikelman or maybe even penrod, Kelly, I Campbell or Weissert. Word is they are also considering trading one of their arb pitchers (Ober or Ryan.) I'd work hard to nab Pablo and one of them, and would then consider trading Mayer or Campbell to make it happen.

If our winter budget is limited, as most of us expect it will be, and we need 3-4 kep additions, we could use Abreu, DHam and maybe Wink to add complimentary pieces like a catcher and a decent RP'er. This allows the FA money to be spent on 2 players, not 4. Maybe we can sign Scott and Martinez and see what the best is we can get for Abreu and DHam, leaving us with this: SP: Houck, Martinez, Bello, Crawford, Gio & Criswell SP/RP (AAA: Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Gambrell, I Coffey, Drohan, Wikelman, AA Sandlin) RP: Scott, Hendriks, Whitlock, Slaten, __trade__, Fulmer, Guerrero (AAA: Penrod, Bernardino, Weissert, I Campbell, Kelly, Booser, Shugart, Kwiat.) C: __trade__, Wong (AAA: Teel) 1B: Casas (AAA: Gasper/Jordan) 2B: Grissom, E Valdez (AAA: Campbell, Sogard) SS: Story, Romy (AAA: Mayer) 3B: Devers (AAA: Meidroth) LF: Duran v R/ Ref v L (AA: Castro) CF: Rafaela v R/ Duran v L (AA: Jh Garcia) RF: Anthony (AA: Sikes) DH: Yoshida/Ref if not in LF (AAA: Hickey/Jordan) We can platoon Ref in LF or DH, or a little of both. We can wait until someone goes on the 60 Day, to add Campbell or Mayer to the 40 and 26. We can start with EValdez in AAA and have Sogard or someone else as #26. I think, even trading Abreu and Dham and not replacing O'Neill, still leaves us with enough quality and depth at every position, assuming Story and Mayer are not hurt, at the same time.

Who do you sign, if the winter budget is $40-45M?

The one year aspect is hard to ignore.

I think Nick Martinez realizes this is the time to get years and dollars. I think he, along with maybe Flaherty and Kikuchi might be in our price range, and if we do get Scott, we won't be spending real big on a SP'er. (Maybe a trade for a cheaper one?)

Crochet is risky, but worth the pursuit. My beef is the 2 years of team control and not a long record of success. MLB is full of one year wonders that go nowhere, fast. Crochet missed 2022 due to injury and could easily join the revolving door of Sox failed additions, although he sure looks better than Gio, Richards, Kluber and others did, at the times we added them. However, Kluber looked okay for one year, too, plus he had a great history from years before. Gio might have sucked at the end of 2023, but he did have several years of success, compare to one from Crochet. Crochet doe not even have a minor league record to look at. He basically went from college to MLB, right out of the gate (12 IP in minors.) His college career was just 132 IP with a 4.38 ERA. Don't get me wrong, I'd like Crochet in our 2025 rotation, but he is a risk, for sure.