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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Very true. We could do worse, next year w RISP. I'm not so sure the Fewway advantage on offense is a great as some might think it is. The Sox are ranked 3rd in AWAY OPS (.755) and 1oth in HOME OPS (.747.) The pitching shows the opposite. The xFIP is nearly identical (4.02 H and 4.00 H,) but ERA shows that Fenway matters: 4.30 ERA at HOME (23rd) and 3.96 AWAY (10th.) RUNS Allowed: 379 Home/ 327 Away RUNS Scored: 341 Home/ 355 Away Total: 720 Home/ 692 Away To me, it's not just the OPS numbers: it's how many good hitters we have, despite many having issues vs LHPs. The Yanks lead MLB in OPS by 8 points and are 3rd in runs scored. Looking at how unbalanced their line-up is, that surprises me more than how few runs we have scored with our OPS. The Yanks have 11 batters with 220+ PAs. Judge (1.147) and Soto (.981) carry the whole team, by themselves. Stanton (.770 in 423 PAs) and Wells (.760 in 374) are pretty good. The rest suck: I guess .697 by Torres is the new low-end "average hitter) .668 Cabrera .664 Volpe (3rd in PAs on Yanks) .657 Dugo (4th in PAs) .656 Trevino .617 Rizzo .527 LeMahieu Had we hit better with RISP, we'd have jumped a few teams in runs scored: 822 AZ 747 NYY 742 LAD 727 BAL 726 MIL 725 PHI 716 SDP 710 BOS (We are 17 runs scored away from 4th best. NYY are 22 runs away from 7th.)
  2. moonslav59
    That's over a third of the season. If we go 6-7, we end up 81-81. If we play .400 ball to end the season (5-8), we go 80-82. 78 wins is still in play, but I hope we can do better than 3-10, and not so we can say "we improved," but just to end the season felling better about this team and how we feel going forward.
  3. moonslav59
    He hasn't really had an extended time to find a groove, but I agree with your point. His D has been great, but for too short a time, and it messed up our plans at other positions by trying to cover SS without just going cheap. (BTW, we did try Sogard a tiny bit in '24 and Chang for 33 games in '23.) The year Story played the most, we still had Bogey, so Story played 2B. He's passed the time to earn his keep, but he can still earn his 2025 and 2026 salaries, and to me, that would greatly improve our team in many areas. RHB: check SS Defense: check Improved 2B Defense: check (no more DHam & Romy at SS but more at 2B over EValdez/Reyes.) Improved OF Defense: check (Rafaela in CF more often and Duran in LF more often.) A team should never have so much riding on one player, and a big part of why we have come up short, the last 3 years, is because of Story missing so much time, and hitting .650, when he does play.
  4. moonslav59
    I'm not sure how high a risk of giving up Yorke was. I guess they said the same about Bagwell. I just saw too many middle infielders ahead of Yorke.
  5. moonslav59
    My bad
  6. moonslav59
    Too many bad weeks in a row.
  7. moonslav59
    It might take a 6 game win streak to even have a shot. I'm not seeing that, but stranger things have happened, like the 3 biggest NFL Faves, lost outright, today.
  8. moonslav59
    No love for Elmer Rodriguez? (Or, IFA D Reyes?)
  9. moonslav59
    He's not getting a QO. He's probably not getting what I said was the most he might get, this winter. If we somehow traded Abreu and Yoshida, I might make him a FA offer, but not a QO.
  10. moonslav59
    The final grade is years away, but it sure does not look good.
  11. moonslav59
    I don't think the viewed Story as just a "dime-a-dozen defensive SS." From 2018-2021, Story had the 24th best fWAR at 14.9. (Bogey was at 16.3.) His .880 OPS was also 24th, while Bogey was 15th at .894. People like to point to his COL Home advantage, and he did have one, but Bogey had a home advantage, too. Road OPS 2018-2021: 4. Betts .903 5. JD M .890 10. Devers .849 12. Bogey .838 32. Stor y .761 (was not bad, at all.) The injury, and the fact that we knew about it, was the worst part of the signing. Had he been healthy and hit ,750 on teh road and .790 at Fenway, the signing would not have been bad, and that might have been close to the expected floor for his O.
  12. moonslav59
    He may get a $25M/2 year deal somewhere, but not with BOS, who has Anthony banging on the door of a team that already has an OF of Duran-Rafaela-Abreu with Campbell able to play OF, too. (Ref may not retire.)
  13. moonslav59
    I seriously doubt he gets a QO. He won't even get a $15M/1 or $27M/2 offer from anyone.
  14. moonslav59
    We sure need some pen arms for 2025.
  15. moonslav59
    He's been a beast, despite the lower than expected rbi total. He's had some big hits and come up short quite a bit, too. We will need to find a way to bet lefties, next year w/o him.
  16. moonslav59
    You are assuming both Whit & Fulmer are healthy. I could also see Whit used in short relief, but more often.
  17. moonslav59
    That he is. It was a risky trade, but even if Yorke truns out to be good, he may never have gotten a chance with the Sox and a middle infield of Story, Mayer, Campbell, DHam, Grissom, and later Arias and others. I hope we see more trades like this one.
  18. moonslav59
    Great post. I will say that Houck had horrific numbers after 4-5 IP or 75 pitches, too. I hope we finally decide to keep Whit in the pen, all year.
  19. moonslav59
    Crawford need to solve the HR issue, if he is going to be a successful SP'er, going forward. I'd prefer him in the pen for 2025, as the co-long man with Whitlock, but I fully realize that ain't happenin'.
  20. moonslav59
    Top 3 of the biggest favorites, today, all lost their games, outright!
  21. moonslav59
    We have done very well in this one area: 1 year stints by an OF'er: 2024: O'Neill .254 31 61 (.888) 2023: Duvall .247 21 58 (.834) in just 353 PAs (Off year in 2022.) 2021: Renfroe .259 31 96 (.816) 2020: Pillar (traded after 126 PAs) .274 4 13 (.795)
  22. moonslav59
    I know Tyler O'Neill is not under team control for 2025, but we do need to think about how we replace the best RHB on the team- a team that really struggles vs LHPs. As of now, he is tied with Devers for the Sox lead in OPS at .891. He leads the team in HRs (31 to 28 over Devers.) Much has been said about his unusual RBI total of 61, but can we get by without adding another RH'd bat from outside the system? On top of this, Refsnyer, a top 30 OPS vs LHPs batter in MLB over the last 2-3 years is saying he may retire. Maybe Campbell of the return of Story can make up for O'Neill's loss. Maybe the LHB, Anthony, can do well enough v LHPs to help us forget about O'Neill's loss. Let's see,,,
  23. moonslav59
    Priester went just 3.1 IP, today with Woo. 63 pitches. 2H, 2ER, 3BB, 2K. It's the bottom of the 9th and Woo has 3 hits. Anthony is 0-2 w 2BB. Grissom 1-3. No Teel or Campbell. POR lost 4-0, but Blden pitched well: 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 2BB, 6K. The bats got 3 hits: Hickey, Jordan & Jh Garica. Hickey & Garcia also drew a BB.
  24. moonslav59
    Tell me you or anyone disagrees: (Maybe not in this order) 1. Pitching 2. Pitching 3. Pitching 4. Catcher and corner IF defense 5. RHB
  25. moonslav59
    You are doing a great job. Relax. Although Sox fans can be brutal, we generally aren't towards people not in charge of the Sox.
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