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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Hey, they had good luck with the last Abreu!
  2. moonslav59
    They probably get a better offer. Would you offer? Abreu, Arias and Dobbins or Abreu, DHam and Fitts
  3. moonslav59
    Assuming Pivetta takes the QO, here might be the start of our 2025 AAV budget: $150 on 13 players: 29.1 Devers, 23.3 Story, 21.0 Pivetta, 19.3 Giolito, 18.0 Yoshida, 9.2 Bello, 6.3 Rafaela, 5 Hendriks, ~4.7 Whitlock, 4.5 Houck (arb 1), ~4.3 Duran (arb 1), ~3.0 Crawford (arb 1), 2.1 Refsnyder +$20M Benefits and bonus pool, $11M Pre-arb majors and $3M minors on 40. $184M TOTAL The CBT line is $244M in 2025, leaving us about $60M "under." Did I miss anything? I doubt we do this: $21M x 2 Nate Eovaldi $15M x 4 Tanner Scott $11M x 3 Carlos Estevez
  4. moonslav59
    Per soxprospects.com... After posting an 8-for-20 week, Brooks Brannon is hitting .333 with a .875 OPS this fall. and Enmanuel Valdéz hit his first home run as part of a 2-for-10 week with the Estrellas. He drew two walks and struck out three times as his triple slash moved to .149/.216/.213.
  5. moonslav59
    Actively continuing the sham.
  6. moonslav59
    Too unproven to give a big package. Abreu, DHam and Dobbins?
  7. moonslav59
    "Active" making losing bids.
  8. moonslav59
    Agreed, and his value with a QO attached drops, a little on the open market, whereas, we have the inside edge on getting him to take a longer offer at lower AAV, if that's what we want (and him, too.)
  9. moonslav59
    It was going to be $21M or $0 for Pivetta, so the QO takes $21M from the winter budget. It's a one year deal, so it's not as simple as just comparing to FAs who sign for $19-21M AAV for several year. Our winter budget can be a pretty hefty one, even if we stay under the tax line, but I do think there will be some set parameters on new spending. All signings or offers like this are "either or."
  10. moonslav59
    Nov 19: Players accept or reject QO, set 40 man roster (protect Rule 5 players) Nov 22: Tender contracts to arb-eligible players Dec 10: MLB Draft Lottery Dec 11: Rule 5 draft Jan 10: Players/teams exchange arb numbers Jan 15: Int'l signing period begins Jan 27: arb hearings begin (end Feb 14) Feb 20: ST'ing begins
  11. moonslav59
    What worries me is that JH, Brez & Co. views it this way and thinks Gio is a #2 or #3. Two 2's and three 3's might be seen as a decent rotation. I like to divide all MLB SP'ers into 5 categories (1-30, 31-60 and so on...,) but you have to set the IP at 70 to get a sample size of 150 SP'ers in 2024. According to fWAR... 14. Houck (a solid #1) T64. Bello (a top end #3) T70. Crawford (mid level #3) T76 Pivetta (middle of the pack #3.) Gio was T #111 in 2023 (a #4) and #75 in 2022 (a solid #3.) I really hope we sign or add a #1. Houck should be a decent #2. Bello, Crawford, Gio and Pivetta can all be a #3 or #4 and one would be a good #5 and the other, pretty good depth. Criswell, Fitts, priester and Dobbins can be nice AAA depth, and Whit & Wink can spot start, if needed.
  12. moonslav59
    Assuming there is a set and limited budget, this winter, this deal only hurts, if we could have got a better pitcher for the same money. Right now, we can see that Manaea and Severino got the same deal, so until we see who accepts and doesn't and at what FAs sign for, it's hard to know how this deal compares. I'd rather we bring Pivetta back than no rotation additions or someone like Martin Perez, but that's not saying too much. I also wonder, if this signing prevents us from signing Tanner Scott, then that would be a major ding.
  13. moonslav59
    If Pivetta can finish in 5th place in the Cy Young Award in '25, I'll be happy and see the comp with Porcello as pretty valid.
  14. moonslav59
    I agree, and although it's nice having rotation depth, with several 3-4-5 types, we NEED a #1, or a solid #2 at worst. I fear this is it for the rotation, and maybe we go hard to fix the pen. That is no easy task. Adding Hendriks & Fulmer is barely a blip, and doesn't come near replacing Jansen & Martin. We need at least 2 major pen additions, with one being LH'd.
  15. moonslav59
    Two ways to look at this Q: 1. Would we be better without Pivetta? (Probably no.) 2. Keeping Pivetta is just keeping status quo on a .500 team. (Yes)
  16. moonslav59
    2023-2024 HR/9 1.21 Bello (61st out of 112) 1.47 Crawford (89th) 1.59 Pivetta (100th) All three are bottom half 250+ IP. (Houck is 0.79 and 12th out of 112 pitchers with 200+ IP)
  17. moonslav59
    I'm not so sure, but certainly the return would be very minimal. 20-24 teams would not even think about it.
  18. moonslav59
    That's a good way to say it.
  19. moonslav59
    Bell mentioned the Porcello comp, and I like it. I will say, Nick has had some pretty long stretches of pitching very well, maybe noy Cy Young well, but pretty damn good and for pretty damn long- just not a full season. 20 GS run in '22: 3.62 (3.73 FIP) .677 OPS Against (3.85/4.04 over 25 games) 29 Gms (8GS) in '23 (May 24 to end of '23) 3.14/3.33 (.600 OPS Against) 16 GS to start '24: 3.81/3.54 (.668 OPS Against) None of these streaks are Cy Young worthy, but I'm not sure Porcello had any runs like that before his Cy Young year. (Note: I'm not predicting a great year.)
  20. moonslav59
    Not small, but not as big as a "bad to mediocre" pitcher might put up. If there are 150 pitchers in a rotation in MLB, at any given time, 52 is a pretty decent number. His ERA+ and ERA- show he is mediocre to better, not to the worse. I think some posters forget just how bad most pitchers are. I'd say at least 60% are worse than Pivetta. That's not great, but it's also not "bad." I egt the point, though: to win, we need better than 5 Pivettas.
  21. moonslav59
    Ted also played before they added the bullpen in RF at Fenway. This might have helped his BA but hurt his HR totals.
  22. moonslav59
    He had a 103 ERA+ with the Sox, career and in 2014. That means he was better than average. I don't get the bad part of "bad to mediocre." (He had a 108 ERA+ from 2023-2024.) Only 52 pitchers had more IP than Pivetta, since 2023. His 93 ERA- beats Pablo Lopez, Nola, Manaea, Bassitt, Cease & kikuchi. It's almost as good as Bryce Miller, Nate and Castillo. One could argue he's better than mediocre.
  23. moonslav59
    Certainly, the high K rate hurts anyone's production, and it seemed to hurt his, this year, more than the norm, but the guy had a good O and S, despite the high Ks. Here are some more numbers: The team had a .746 OPS with Men on Base: O'Neil was second on the team at .820 (4th if you lower the PAs to include Yoshi & Ref.) He was 5th in PAs with Men on Base and 5th in RBI w Men on Base. The team was .744 w RISP, and O'Neill was first at .866 (50 points ahead of #2 Yoshida.) He was 7th in PAs w RISP and 7th in RBI w RISP. He should have had more RBIs. The K's were part of the reason.
  24. moonslav59
    It's not too late to get Nick to accept an extension at something like $35M/2 or $48M/3.
  25. moonslav59
    Severino got a QO, too, so that tells you something. The Athletic projected Nick Martinez would get $13.3M x 3, and he got a QO, too.
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