moonslav59

While Houck has experiences some "arm fatigue," and both he and Crawford had a tough stretch for a few weeks this summer, I think it is important to point out a few numbers: MLB Leaders in... IP: 15th Crawford (179.1) and 16th Houck (178.2)/ 54th Bello (158.1) & 79th Pivetta (139) 90 Pitchers with 130+ IP fWAR: 13th Houck (3.9) 61st Crawford & Bello (1.9) 66th Pivetta 1.8 ERA: 16th Houck (3.12) 66. Crawford (4.17) 69. Pivetta (4.21) 78. Bello (4.49) SIERA: 10. Pivetta 3.31, 30. Houck 3.74, 552. Crawford 4.09, 6. Bello 4.14, TEAM: 16th ERA at 4.05, but 10th in ERA- at 95 and xFIP and xFIP- 8th in K/BB at 2.98 T11th with NYY at 15.0 fWAR. 10th in xFIP (4.01) ahead of BAL (4.02) & NYY (4.11)

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Highest winning % by Sox teams since 2018: .568 2021 (92 wins) .539 2019 (84 wins) .503 2024 (on pace for 81-82 wins) .481 2022 & 2023 .400 2020 (short season) Note: we were at .438 in 2014 and .481 in 2015.

It should be best overall record and the team with the best one half record (1st or 2nd.)

Houck has the 5th best GB% among SP'ers. (Bello is 6th.) I do think it should help, if Story can stay healthy and anyone but EValdez plays at 2B. Most innings at 2B 462 EValdez (-8 OAA, -6 DRS, 0.9 UZR/150)) 266 DHam (+3 OAA, +8 DRS, -8.1 UZR/150) 206 Grissom (-2 OAA, +1 DRS, -4.7) 130 Romy G (-3 OAA, -2 DRS, -20.7) Team: -9 OAA, somehow a +1 DRS and -2.9 UZR/150. Some mix of Story, mayer, Campbell and DHam/Grissom at 2B only should be a major improvement.

He knew he had to add pitching. There was going to be an everyday player roster crunch in December, or whenever the Rule 5 protectees need to be named. My guess is Yorke would still have been protected, but due to the middle infield bottle neck and Mayer & Campbell looking better than Yorke, he decided to save someone else from being cut or kept off the 40, so we could have a better pitcher in Priester over someone like Shugart or whoever gets DFA;d this fall.

I thought the same thing watching the game, last night. It looked like a totally different team out there.

The arm fatigue is worrisome, but it was encouraging to see him at about 180 IP. He is 16th in IP, now. He is 5 IP from top 10 in MLB.

Even if he continues a 20+ SB & 20 HR/650 PA pace with a .650 OPS? (.650 is .070 from the league norm.)

I think he saw Yorke as a Rule 5 guy who was bottle-necked, and he felt he'd make the deal in July not at roster crunch time in November. It also helped to balance the everyday vs pitcher warp. I do not think it means Priester is handed a slot on the 13 MLB staff.

I agree about just being marginally better. The fact that the Rays and Jays got worse does not make us better. I know a lot can go wrong, going forward and some will. I have been suggesting 2-3 major pitching additions need to be made, so I do not think that is a sign of ignoring the reality that this team is deeply flawed. It is. No sugar coating. Thinking the D will improve, based on the return of Story is fraught with risk and a high probability of a major letdown, although Mayer & Campbell offer more depth.

We were also 4-2 v KCR, 4-3 vs SEA and 2-1 vs PHI & Cubs. It wasn't a good year.

I'm not sure how positive, if any, it is, but I'd like to finish above TBR and not finishing last is better than finishing last. This has nothing to do with JH. I know it has been a sham, but that does not mean I have to lie to myself and say we don't look better, now, than we did from 2022-2023. We are better, and our extended future looks way brighter than even the last 2 years of the DD era. This isn't being a JH apologist by saying the truth.

Another chance to get hurt. No thanks.

I agree. I do think we have to be happy with the amount of prospects that impressed being more than the amount that disappointed us. We did trade away a lot of bubble prospects, which lessened our depth, but we also saw some astounding jumps by a few prospects, namely Campbell, Arias, Jh Garcia, Valera, Early and Mullins and to some extent Meidroth, Romero, Dobbins and Penrod. I also like our draft more and more as time goes by.

Good point, but the next two worse teams were in the NL.

Again, I am not predicting: I am suggesting. I also do not believe Brez is happy with the 13 man staff as is, even counting on Gio to replace Pivetta, Hendriks to replace Jansen, Whitlock to replace Martin and Fulmer to replace L Garica, Sims and Chase Anderson. While the numbers may add up, the talent level is up for debate, and staying even with the 2024 staff is not a winning strategy or a goal I think Brez would choose. He may be forced to choose, if the budget is harsh. I don't think he willingly chooses to do rest on his last winter moves, only. I think he is smarter than that. It won't be his choice to do very little.

We had Dugo for one more year, so that part was a push, except that O'Neill did way better than Dugo. The rest of the trade is Robertson & Santos for Fitts, Weissert and Judice. (Some say we may get a comp pick by offering O'Neill a QO and he turns it down, but I don't see it.)

I think the CWS really brings the AL down. I'm not sure having the weakest teams in specifically the 6th slot is all that meaningful. Anyway, this year, there can be no sub .500 team in the playoffs. 82-80 is the lowest possible record for the WC3 team in the AL. (87-75 in the NL.) The NL does have 6 of the top 8 records in MLB, so I'm not disagreeing they look better. To cherry- pick on the bottom end, the NL has 6 of the worst 11 teams. The AL has 8 of the middle 11 teams. (if top tier=8 teams/ bottom tier = 11 teams) AL has 10 of the top (and mediocre) 19 teams. All 19 teams are at .500 or better. It is interesting that we speak of parity, and 6 teams are below a .442 win %, and 10 teams are under .484. If SFG wins 3 of 5, we'll have 20 teams at .500 or better and just 10 below .500.

No miracle is happening, this year, but it is interesting that we got to 5 games left and are not eliminated, mathematically. 82-74 DET & KCR 81-75 MIN -1.0 81-76 SEA -1.5 79-78 BOS -3.5 (needing to pass 3 teams) 78-78 TBR -4.0 There is nothing to be happy about when missing the playoffs in any given season, and 3 in a row really sucks. I do see an improved 26 man roster. A vastly improved 40 man roster, and the 5 prospects that are ML ready and not on the 40 offer great hopes.

No matter what we do, you'll find something.

The Wow was just how bad all of the top 3 levels looked and how much turnover, much via promotions from lower farm levels, occurred under Brez in just 10 months. Agreed, the biggest WOW was losing Sale. Second biggest was getting one year of Gio, not 2. I do think some overlook the O'Neill and Dugo trades. We basically traded 1 year of a problem-child Dugo plus two fringy RP'ers for O'Neill, Fitts, Weissert and Judice. Maybe not WOW, but pretty damn good. The Slaten deal looks very good/promising. The I Campbell and Sandlin deals are pending. The Criswell depth signing looks way better than the $20M Bloom spent on Kluber and Richards and maybe equals the $10M spent on Paxton, or the $7M spent on Wacha or the $5M spent on Hill. Given the budget he had, there were not many options. Some other ones, like signing Monty were good no's by Brez.

I mentioned Gio, but not Whitlock. Gio may not be ready by opening day. We lose... Pivetta 139 IP (4th most by 40 IP over Criswell) Jansen 55 IP- almost all high leverage Martin 41 IP - also almost all high leverage 35 IP from Garcia, Sims and Paxton and 52 from Anderson. There is room on the 13 for Gio, Whitlock, Hendriks and Fulmer, as well as at least 2 major additions. We have enough guys with options for there to be no 26 man roster crunch. We need AAA pitching depth, so adding 2-3 more ML roster pitchers accomplishes that by attrition. The opening day 13 pitchers could (not will) look like this: SP1. Houck SP2. __ Add__ SP3. Bello SP4. Crawford SP5. Fitts/Priester (replaced by Gio when healthy) SP6/Long Relief (RP4 & 5): Criswell & Whitlock Closer: Hendriks Set-Up: __Add__ Set-Up: Slaten RP6. Fulmer RP7. Winckowski RP8/AAA depth: Bernardino/Penrod/Fitts/Priester/Guerrero/Weissert/ ICampbell/Kelly/Booser AAA SP depth: (Fitts and or Priester) Dobbins, Gambrell, I Coffey, Wikelman, Drohan and maybe Sandlin

I can't imagine Brez thinking replacing Pivetta, Jansen and Martin with Gio, Hendriks, Fulmer and Fitts/Priester will be enough. Of course, JH might restrict his budget, so much, he has little choice, but JH would have to demand a massive budget cut from '24 to '25 for his hands to be that tied. He's also have to demand no top prospect trades, which he might do, but we could also trade Abreu and DHam. While this would not be considered "heavy lifting," it could make measurable improvements to the pitching staff and then one signing, even if for 1/3 or 1/2 of what Pivetta, Jansen, Martin and O'Neill made combined would be close to a heavy lifting signing. I think he will add a #3 type SP'er. I'm hoping top end. I think he adds a very solid set up man, like maybe Sewald. Maybe some more depth additions like Criswell (not Anderson, hopefully.) That could be it. He almost has to trade an OF'er, even if Ref retires. Brez made a lot of moves. On another thread I listed the 2023 end of season rosters, and the turnover was stunning. Now, that he has had a year to do his evaluations on who we got, I think some major changes happen. Likely not what I expect, but at least 2 bold moves.

I have no way of knowing if Rafaela will ever improve enough to be even close to what JBJ was for those 6 years. He's already had a few years to try and learn better discipline. We know they worked with him on this at every level, and it backfired to the point where I think they gave up trying and just resigned themselves to the fact that this is who he is and maybe he can find ways to get enough hits, a decent amount of homers and then steal some bases to a level where his great defense pulls him to a net plus. I don't know if that ever happens, because I doubt he ever "learns" strike zone discipline. There is a very long list of free-swinger flame outs. Bell a I looked at just how few plus offensive players had high K rates, and I found a few with 4:1 or 5:1 ratios, maybe a couple with 6:1, and no peers at 9:1. His K rate is scary as hell, and I have deep concerns he never improves, but he just turned 24. I never judge a guy on just his last 4-6 weeks. Hardly any player ever just repeats a 6 weeks stretch, over and over. I don't expect great improvement, but most players do improve after 24 and up to 27 or 28- some even later. I doubt he makes it to 27 or 28, if he stays like he's been the last few weeks, but why assume this is him? All through his minor league career, we heard the same thing, then watched him have hot streaks after hot streaks, enough time to turn his numbers into decent to good territory. He did it in the bigs, too, and was once at a point where his OPS was at the league average, after a sizable sample size. He's struggling, now, and I understand why he's getting kicked around while down. I'm just saying I'm not joining in with a kick.