moonslav59

He was on his way to a career best OPS in '24, before the injury, and maybe they figure inflation.

So, he's owed about $32M per year and worth about $34.5M/yr.

Sox OPS vs LHPs 2024 1.179 O'Neall (156 PAs) GONE .941 Refsnyder (145) Some think he should/might be bumped. .897 Romy (130) Mayb not get a chance in '25 .877 Wong (152) May not repeat this in '25 .772 Jansen (43) GONE .758 Casas (61) Should see more time in '25 (Bregman .712 w HOU) .686 Devers (230) Seems like an outlier .665 Duran (230) Stilla FT'er .603 Raafela (152) Reverse splits .565 Yoshida (108) Was okay in '23 .532 Abreu (67) May not get a chance to play FT .532 DHam (50) Should not start vs LHPs 2023-2024 Returning Players Only: .886 Refsnyder .879 Romy .794 Casas .749 Devers .721 Wong (Bregman .704) .680 Duran .669 Yoshida .619 Grissom .610 Rafaela .573 Story .539 DHam .494 Abreu 2022-2024 .910 Ref .879 Romy .772 Casas .746 Devers .743 Story (Bregman .704) .694 Wong .669 Yoshida .650 Duran .539 DHam .514 Abreu

There are examples of winning without a top closer, but with the Sox... Foulke Papelbon Uehara Kimbrel

I like the 4 set-up men more than the 3, with one closing. I also think it takes a special kind of pitchers to handle getting that last out of the game, even if it is vs the 9 guy not the #2 or 4 guy.

Agreed. There are parts I felt, "uh-oh," but others it seemed like he was not going to go to war over this. The past regime promised him "long term 3B," and that was 2 years ago. I think that was the plan, until Bregman entered the picture, but that doesn't really change Devers' perspective.

This seems a bit encouraging.

1B Devers & Casas (DH when not playing 1B) 2B Campbell (DHam-Romy platoon, if Campbell starts 2025 off the 40 and in AAA) SS Story (with Mayer or Rafaela as the sub) 3B Bregman (near GG quality is the obvious choice, to me.)

Devers does not strike me as a prolonged pouter. I doubt he escalates this to demand a trade. Suck it up, dude, and do what's best for the team. I hope he asks to try 1B before being relegated to DH. I think he can do better than the worst defensive 1Bman in MLB, Casas.

We just signed Bregman. The plan was for Devers to play 3B, before the signing. Yes, they should have talked to him, when the signing became imminent, but when was that? I'm not surprised he's upset, especially in light of his comment that he felt he was good on D, last year, and that surprises me. He's gotta know Bregman is much better on D, even if he thinks he's been "good." Maybe, he'll come around, but I'm not so sure upsetting him with the question, before we knew Bregman was joining the team was the better idea. Chances are, he'd have had the same reaction, so what's the difference, unless it convinced us not to sign Bregman?

You never mentioned Ref getting worse. He can hit .800 and likely still be better than Campbell or Anthony v LHPs, and certainly ebtter than his real squeezers: Rafaela, Abreu and Yoshida. He only gets squeezed, legitimately, if he's hitting under what Abreu, Rafaela and Yoshida are hitting vs LHPs, and over a few months. This is a pretty far-fetched scenario, IMO. It was not mentioned, before, so I view it as moving the goalposts.

We really don't need this sort of drama. Raffy needs to read the room.

It's easy to just say, "Tell him he can put on a 1Bman's mitt or play DH, or both. You have no choice." In reality, I'm not sure how much of an issue this would create. I don't see the "happy-go-lucky" Devers as a pouter, but I'm also not sure I'd want to try and find out. We are a much better team with Bregman at 3B, and in some ways, it smooths the path for Campbell at 2B rather than the OF, of gasp.... SS. I'd try hard to explain to him that he might think he's good on D, but 29 other 3Bman are better, including Bregman, who is top 5. Maybe don't tell him he sucks on D, but that Bregman is one of the best and is a longtime proven vet, who deserves to play his natural position, too. If he remains adamant, maybe we need to ask what he'd do, if we force him to 1B or DH. How he responds might matter.

Shoulda asked before signing Bregman.

What a mess.

If Raffy becomes a dick ab out this, he will lose a lot of my respect, which has been bountiful, over the years. He's gotta know he is not good on D, and Bregman is excellent.

Well, after you moved the goalposts to an entirely different scenario, yes. I still doubt he gets squeezed, even if he struggles for a month or two, and everyone else is raking.

True, but my tendency is to focus on our weakest link on paper and hope we can upgrade. To me it is closer, followed by Catcher defense and then a true big RHB. (Bregman has great Fenway numbers and a lot of other qualities, but he has struggled v LHPs, recently.) I think we are good enough to challenge for a playoff slot, as is. I could see us finishing with the second best record in the AL- maybe best, with great health and a confluence of good years by nearly everyone, but I could also see us finishing out of the playoffs. Hell, some projections have us last in the ALE, even after adding Bregman. It seems, to me, we have attempted to open the window for 2025. We have added a ton of money for 2025 and 2025, alone, especially if you consider Bregman could opt out. Buehler, Chapman, Bregman, Wilson add up to a boatload of cash. Gio, Hendriks & Ref have one year left and add up to a considerable total of cash. Why not take one more step to help increase the odds we make a run for it in '25? Trade for a closer or big bat/good glove catcher and set ourselves up as a top 2-3 favorite in the AL and maybe top 5 in MLB? Maybe, I'm being a homer in thinking we are 1 -2 players away from being that highly favored, but my gut says we are. (BTW, my gut has been wrong more than right, even for winning seasons like 2013 and 2021.)

Of course, if Ref is doing worse and someone else is doing better, who would be against a swap-out? I think Ref has earned a long leash vs LHPs, though. As I pointed out, Ref need not be squeezed, even if Campbell and Anthony are playing FT. He'd need to be beat out by Yoshida, Abreu or Rafaela, and none seem likely to be mashing lefties better than Ref, even if Ref slips to .800 or maybe even .750 or below. Romy can and should be squeezed, if Campbell becomes the FT 2Bman. I have no issue, there, even if Campbell begins his career with reverse splits. He needs to play FT or be in AAA. I don't see us juggling Campbell between 2B and the OF, just to get Romy time at 2B vs LHPs, but if Anthony is still in AAA, and we decide to play Bregman at 3B FT, I could see this: 2B: Campbell v R/ Romy v L LF: Duran v R/Ref v L CF: Rafaela v R/Duran v L RF: Abreu v R/Campbell v L This assumes Romy is still mashing lefties through ST'ing and makes the 26. This may very well not happen.

Agreed. We could end up "cycling" through 3-4 pitchers and still not find one that does well enough. Each one that fails means we are losing winnable games, and we cannot afford too many of those and still make the playoffs. IMO, the 4 candidates for closer, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten and Whitlock, all would look like very nice set-up men, and having 4 is a luxury not many teams have. Using one as a closer, lessens that number to 3 and forces Wink or Wilson into a higher leverage role than I like. The problem is, I don't really see Robertson or Finnegan as a sure solution, either. They would just make it 5 guys trying out for the closer role, not 4. 5 is better than 4, and it would add one more quality set-up man and squeeze out our #8 RP'er, but we really need to trade for a lockdown closer to get one, at this point. I see the odds of that happening as less than 1%, before opening day. Maybe we get one at the deadline, if it's not too late, by then.

There is room for Ref, Campbell and Anthony vs LHPs: 2B: Campbell LF: Refsnyder CF: Duran RF: Anthony (Abreu and Rafaela sit vs LHPs.) Bregman at 3B and Devers/Casas share 1B/DH. No squeeze needed.

Why squeeze the 13th best batter vs LHPs since 2022? Why does it matter that he almost retired? Romy, I can see, as 2024 could have just been a fluke, and our IF is crowded. However, Bregman does not have great splits vs LHPs. That being said, I do not bench Bregman to play Romy. If Campbell is on the 26, he should play FT, but he could play 2B vs RHPs and OF vs LHPs, to allow Romy to play, but that would squeeze Ref out of his slot, so no. I do NOT have an issue with Campbell playing over Romy, but if Campbell is in AAA, I'd go with DHam-Romy at 2B, Bregman at 3B, Casas/Devers at 1B/DH and Ref in the OF vs LHPs as Abreu sits. Ref should not be squeezed.

Refsnyder has been a top 20 batter vs LHPs for3 years and has been our best batter vs LHPs over that time. If he does not play, he is being squeezed, by someone. IMO, we have room to play Anthony and Ref, as Abreu sits vs LHPs. Duran would be the 3rd OF'er. I would not play Rafaela over Ref vs LHPs. If we let Yoshida DH FT rather than use Ref vs LHPs, Yoshida would be squeezing Ref. If Devers and or Casas play DH, then Ref has to play OF vs LHPs. He does not need to be squeezed, and he should not be benched v lefties. Only 12 batters in all of MLB have a higher OPS vs LHPs and more PAs than Ref since 2022. None are on the Sox team. Benching him makes us worse. Tell me how it doesn't? Romy's 2024 could very well be a fluke, so I agree, it may not really be a squeeze, if Campbell starts over him, but if Romy's 2024 numbers vs lefties was not a fluke, it's hard to expect Campbell to beat his numbers. He can, but maybe not, and we'd be seeing a drop in numbers vs LHPs, if he does not. Romy hit .879 vs LHPs in 2024. His 130 PAs vs LHPs placed 7th on the team, so it's not like he made a major impact in '24, but he was one of our best batters vs lefties, and he is facing a benching or demotion.

The claim of "closer by committee" was not really ever the reality. The reality was we had a sucky closer. I was at that opening day game in Tampa in '03, when Chad Fox imploded. The next game, Howry blew the save in the 8th, but that was not in a "closer" role. The game went 16, and Brandon Lyon pitched the last 3 innings to get the win- again, no real closer role occured in that game, unless they yanked Lyon after 2 IP. (There were not many RP options.) Game 3: Chad Fox got the save. Game 6: Fox came into the 1-1 game in the 9th and got the loss. Game 12 was the next save situation, but it was Wake in a 2 IP situation. I guess you could call this part of some committee set-up, but so far, it was Chad Fox or long men getting the save chances. Same with game 13, where Timlin pitched 2 innings, blew the save, but got the win, when the Sox scored in the bottom of the 9th. Game 14 was a switch. Fox pitched the 8th (got the win) and Lyon pitched the 9th for the save. To me, this was the first evidence of a "committee." in action not words. Game 18 saw Timlin pitch the final 2 innings for the save. I guess you could call these 2-3 IP saves a "committee," but this was not really the traditional closer role. Game 20: It was Fox, again for a 1 IP closer save. Game 23: Fox for a 1.1 IP save. Game 25: Fox with a BS, and later in extra innings, Jason Shiell got the save. Game 27: Fox was available, but they went with Lyon, who let 2 runners on base, so Embree came in for the last out and the save. This game was when the switch was made, and looked like a hodge-podge "committee" type set-up. Lyon became the closer. Game 28: Lyon with the save. Game 32 : Lyon blew the save and got the loss. 34, 36 & 38: Lyon save 42: Timlin blew the game in the 8th and Lyon got racked in the 9th. 45: Lyon saves v NYY 52: Lyon got the loss in 1.1 IP (Sox score 5 in the 8th and 9th to tie v NYY) 60: Lyon pitched 2 IP and got the win, but Timlin pitched the 9th for the save, as the Sox scored 2 in the top of the 9th. 62: Lyon got the loss after coming in in a tie game in the 9th. 65 & 69: Lyon saves 71: Lyon got the win 72: extra innings- Shiell BS and then Seanez BS 74: Timlin save 77: Lyon 2 IP save 80; Lyon BS (4 runs) 81: Lyon save in 11th 82: Kim save (lyon unavailable) 83; Lyon BS in 1.1 IP & Timlin loss 87: Kim BS 88: KIm save and becomes the FT closer. I see 2003 as not a "closer by committee," ever. It was Chad Fox, who failed. Then, it was Lyon, who failed. Then Kim won the job and held it the rest of the year.

Why wait to midseason? The window has been opened, and we are spending big on several one year or opt-out year deals. While depth is a great thing to have, especially on a team known for having so many injuries, we have so much duplicated value that I feel we can afford to risk trading some depth to fix our weakest areas: 1. Closer 2. Catcher (mostly on defense) A nice big RHB catcher would be a dream come true.