moonslav59

Let's see if losing Soto to free agency has the same outcome.

Yup, another winter sham.

The Pedro trade was a big part of that. The Manny signing was a clear sign we wanted to win. I agree.

Hope is not a projection.

I feel the same. Great job on building up the rotation and rotation depth, but nothing, everywhere else. Even the rotation was built on pitchers returning from injury and a trade for 2 years of a really good pitcher, recently converted to a SP'er.

Our 3B depth sucked, but I think our depth was fine, last year. Houck was slated to be our 6th starter, before Gio went down. Criswell did very well as our 7th SP. DHam and Romy did way better than E Vadlez /Grissom/Reyes, who started the season at 2B. Rafaela helped stabilize the SS position in a way Kike never could. Abreu emerged as a solid platoon player with plus D. We had to go outside the system to get Dom Smith, so we did suck at 1B depth (Dalbec), too. Our pen depth struggled, especially down the stretch, but overall, I do not think our depth was worse than most teams: we just needed it, a lot. It's hard for any team to replace a Devers.

Those three injuries hurt, and maybe Gio's, too, but I don't think we had way more injuries than other teams, and we had less than the Dodgers. It looks like our hopes for 2025 rest on health, once again. It was all about Sale for 3-4 years, Story for 2-3 years and ongoing, and now Devers, Casas, Whit and others.

It seems like the pen is the best way to get talent without giving up 5-8 year deals and $100M plus. I thought the Jansen and Martin signings signalled the Sox recognized that as a way to improve the team on the cheap and without long commitments. (We ended up paying Jansen and Martin more AAV than Scott got, but they were just two 2 year commitments and not one 4-5 year commitment.)

They were looking to save about $40-45M with the Astros trade, so if any deal comes close to that, they might listen. Taking on a $54M Yoshida deal would mean we'd have to pay off his whole deal and pay $40M for Arenado (STL pays $20M). That makes zero sense for the Sox. However, if the bottom line is what this is mostly about for STL, they could add Contreras, who is owed exactly what Yoshida is owed, and we could accept Arenado's full deal, saving STL $20M more, or accept the $20M and give them less young talent, in return for Contreras. Yoshida, Fitts and Cespedes for Contreras and Arenado & $15M cash. (STL saves $45M and we pay enough to stay under the tax line) of Yoshida and Cespedes for Contreras and Arenado w no cash. (STL saves $60M) We pay $18 to Contreras, not Yoshida and Arenado's full boat- what COL pays.

I did not say my list is what will happen- only that I see these areas as our weakest ones. I think Narvaez is a plus on D, and he has shown some power in the minors (about 20 Hrs per 550.) He has an okay OBP in the minors, but that is not something that always translates to the bigs. Our best hope is, the new coaches help Wong improve on D, and he shows his decent offense, when compared to only catchers was not a fluke. Realistically, we may sign Grichuk and someone like Finnegan or Beeks.

Grichuk. Career: .833 v LHPs and about the same as Bregman v RHPs at .737. 2024: .914 v l/ .801 v R 2023: .995 v L/ .694 v R 2022: .926/.620 He might cost 5-10% of what Bregman gets.

Bregman's splits: .795 OPS since 2020 (122 OPS+) He has reverse splits since 2020: .746 v LHPs .817 v RHP Sox players to possibly be replaced by Bregman in the line-up: (v L/vR) Yoshida: .669/ .810 (Bregman is about 80 pys better v LHPs and about the same vs RHP, but we can platoon Ref with Yoshida and get better results than Bregman.) Rafaela .610/ .684 (Bregman is much better in both splits) Casas (if traded) .772/.846 (Casas has been better in both splits)

Bregman is not a great solution to the RHB need. He would help, but not by a lot. If we end up trading Casas to make room for him, it is essentially a loss on offense (even vs LHPs and a loss vs RHPs.) If we bench Yoshida (Devers and or Casas to DH) we will gain vs LHPs but lose vsRHPs. If we move Yoshida/Ref to LF, then Bregman's bat would essentially be replacing an OF'ers bat, most likely Rafaela's, and that would be a plus vs LHPs and RHPs. (We'd probably see an Abreu-Rafaela platoon in RF.)

I have adding a catcher pretty high on my top priority list: 1. Lock down closer 2T. Catcher who can play D and not be bad on O. (Wong is good on O/ Narvaez is good on D.) 2T. RHB 4. 3B Defense 5. 1B Defense

Our SS depth is pretty weak, at least for 2025 and probably 2026. Arias and Romero offer far-away hopes, but DHam, Grissom and Romy are not season-long fill-in types at SS. It would likely be Rafaela, again. Unless we add an OF'er or Yoshida-Ref get shoved into LF after a Bragman addition at 3B, we'd need Anthony promoted to make that happen. (Not a bad idea.) While Rafaela did not look all that good on D at SS, he wasn't horrible and could grow into the position, if allowed to play there FT. He's not the ideal bridge SS for 1-2 years. Again, it comes down to Story's health on a Mayer trade. I hear yah. I might be willing to risk it. I'm not sure Campbell could win the SS job, either. We need a closer, and JH is being stingy. He did pay aged Jansen and Martin $25M a year x 2, but refused to pay Scott $19M x 4.

The Cardinals were willing to send $15-20 million to the Astros as part of the deal to help pay down Arenado’s salary, sources said. The eight-time All-Star is set to earn $74 million over the next three years, though the Rockies are on the hook for $10 million as part of their 2021 trade with the Cardinals, while $12 million of the deal is deferred, bringing the present-day value of what he is owed to roughly $60 million. The money the Cardinals were willing to include would have brought the Astros’ commitment down to roughly $40-45 million over three years. So, if we pay $15 the $54M owed Yoshida, STL pays Yoshida $39M, instead of Arenado $60M. That certainly does not save them $40-45M, but $21M is a lot. Essentially, we'd be paying Arenado $75M/3, but after subtracting Yoshida's deal we would really be paying Arenado We'd be paying Arenado $60M/3, but would save $39M/3 of Yoshida. That comes to $7M a year for Arenado over Yoshida. I can see STL saying no, and giving Helsely with Arenado makes it harder to swallow, but who knows how they value the other players I included. I'm not sure JH would do this, and I'm not sure I would either. Arenado is due to crater. Only a Helsley extension would make the deal interesting. I've come to the conclusion that there is no way to dump Yoshida, unless we just pay $10-14M a year out of the $18M/yr owed.

Apparently, HOU's offer to Bregman is still "on the table." TOR is getting close to signing Alonso, so I doubt Breg goes there. It will probably be Detroit, with maybe BOS or HOU as distant second runners.

I think STL will want too much for 1 year of Helsley, and why should we overpay for 1 year? If he's an add-on to lower the money included on Arenado, okay, but what are you thinking? Romero and Fitts for Helsley & Arenado & $10M x 2 yrs and $5M year 3? I might do Yoshida + $5M x 3 years, Arias and Fitts for Helsley & Arenado

He pitched better than several pitchers who have already signed, using a 1, 2 or 3 year sample size. I'd rather have him starting over Gio and Crawford, and he may do better than Bello in 2025, but there is no money left over at his price.

To me, Mayer seems like more than enough, if not too much, but Miller is proven and fills a great need on our roster. Bumping every other RP'er down on the high leverage totem pole would improve more than just the closer role.

Casas seems a bit fragile, so maybe a 1B-DH share between Casas and Devers would help both stay healthier, fresher and play 160-162 games. We need both bats, everyday. (Both have decent splits.)

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4207931/2023/02/15/rafael-devers-improving-defense/

Casas seems to be getting worse, and he has had years to learn the position and improve. Thirdbasemen often move to 1B rather seamlessly. The reason I think Devers would be better, or at least the same, after a few weeks, is that his main issue at 3B is his inaccurate arm, but his glove, quickness or range. Also, "the few weeks" was not including practice and assuming ST'ing games before the season begins. (Note: we moved Bogey from SS to 3B after just 10games in the minors at 3B.) This is not about thinking Devers will be a plus on D, in a short time. The bar set by Casas is just be the 27th to 29th best defender at 1B, and we'd improve. CASAS SUCKS ON D! The psyche part was just put out there, because some, here have mentioned his has a fragile ego and does not want to move off 3B. I don't agree with the "ego" thing, but some players really feel like they are more a part of the game, playing a position and not sitting on the bench during the opps ABs. I'd let them share 1B/DH, until one shws they are better than the other.

I also do not see this as "trading away the future," since Miller's 4 years of service remaining is about what you get from a rising prospect, anyway. They often take 1-2 years to adjust and give 4 productive seasons. I might even give Mayer & one or two from Kelly, Penrod, Bernardino or non-40 man Mata or for Miller.

I'm thinking Devers is probably better on D at 1B than Casas, or would be after a few weeks. Maybe they share 1B/DH duty and will never need a day off. Devers might enjoy playing in the field, more than D'ing, so maybe that could help his psyche.