moonslav59

Bregman's splits: .795 OPS since 2020 (122 OPS+) He has reverse splits since 2020: .746 v LHPs .817 v RHP Sox players to possibly be replaced by Bregman in the line-up: (v L/vR) Yoshida: .669/ .810 (Bregman is about 80 pys better v LHPs and about the same vs RHP, but we can platoon Ref with Yoshida and get better results than Bregman.) Rafaela .610/ .684 (Bregman is much better in both splits) Casas (if traded) .772/.846 (Casas has been better in both splits)

Bregman is not a great solution to the RHB need. He would help, but not by a lot. If we end up trading Casas to make room for him, it is essentially a loss on offense (even vs LHPs and a loss vs RHPs.) If we bench Yoshida (Devers and or Casas to DH) we will gain vs LHPs but lose vsRHPs. If we move Yoshida/Ref to LF, then Bregman's bat would essentially be replacing an OF'ers bat, most likely Rafaela's, and that would be a plus vs LHPs and RHPs. (We'd probably see an Abreu-Rafaela platoon in RF.)

I have adding a catcher pretty high on my top priority list: 1. Lock down closer 2T. Catcher who can play D and not be bad on O. (Wong is good on O/ Narvaez is good on D.) 2T. RHB 4. 3B Defense 5. 1B Defense

Our SS depth is pretty weak, at least for 2025 and probably 2026. Arias and Romero offer far-away hopes, but DHam, Grissom and Romy are not season-long fill-in types at SS. It would likely be Rafaela, again. Unless we add an OF'er or Yoshida-Ref get shoved into LF after a Bragman addition at 3B, we'd need Anthony promoted to make that happen. (Not a bad idea.) While Rafaela did not look all that good on D at SS, he wasn't horrible and could grow into the position, if allowed to play there FT. He's not the ideal bridge SS for 1-2 years. Again, it comes down to Story's health on a Mayer trade. I hear yah. I might be willing to risk it. I'm not sure Campbell could win the SS job, either. We need a closer, and JH is being stingy. He did pay aged Jansen and Martin $25M a year x 2, but refused to pay Scott $19M x 4.

The Cardinals were willing to send $15-20 million to the Astros as part of the deal to help pay down Arenado’s salary, sources said. The eight-time All-Star is set to earn $74 million over the next three years, though the Rockies are on the hook for $10 million as part of their 2021 trade with the Cardinals, while $12 million of the deal is deferred, bringing the present-day value of what he is owed to roughly $60 million. The money the Cardinals were willing to include would have brought the Astros’ commitment down to roughly $40-45 million over three years. So, if we pay $15 the $54M owed Yoshida, STL pays Yoshida $39M, instead of Arenado $60M. That certainly does not save them $40-45M, but $21M is a lot. Essentially, we'd be paying Arenado $75M/3, but after subtracting Yoshida's deal we would really be paying Arenado We'd be paying Arenado $60M/3, but would save $39M/3 of Yoshida. That comes to $7M a year for Arenado over Yoshida. I can see STL saying no, and giving Helsely with Arenado makes it harder to swallow, but who knows how they value the other players I included. I'm not sure JH would do this, and I'm not sure I would either. Arenado is due to crater. Only a Helsley extension would make the deal interesting. I've come to the conclusion that there is no way to dump Yoshida, unless we just pay $10-14M a year out of the $18M/yr owed.

Apparently, HOU's offer to Bregman is still "on the table." TOR is getting close to signing Alonso, so I doubt Breg goes there. It will probably be Detroit, with maybe BOS or HOU as distant second runners.

I think STL will want too much for 1 year of Helsley, and why should we overpay for 1 year? If he's an add-on to lower the money included on Arenado, okay, but what are you thinking? Romero and Fitts for Helsley & Arenado & $10M x 2 yrs and $5M year 3? I might do Yoshida + $5M x 3 years, Arias and Fitts for Helsley & Arenado

He pitched better than several pitchers who have already signed, using a 1, 2 or 3 year sample size. I'd rather have him starting over Gio and Crawford, and he may do better than Bello in 2025, but there is no money left over at his price.

To me, Mayer seems like more than enough, if not too much, but Miller is proven and fills a great need on our roster. Bumping every other RP'er down on the high leverage totem pole would improve more than just the closer role.

Casas seems a bit fragile, so maybe a 1B-DH share between Casas and Devers would help both stay healthier, fresher and play 160-162 games. We need both bats, everyday. (Both have decent splits.)

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4207931/2023/02/15/rafael-devers-improving-defense/

Casas seems to be getting worse, and he has had years to learn the position and improve. Thirdbasemen often move to 1B rather seamlessly. The reason I think Devers would be better, or at least the same, after a few weeks, is that his main issue at 3B is his inaccurate arm, but his glove, quickness or range. Also, "the few weeks" was not including practice and assuming ST'ing games before the season begins. (Note: we moved Bogey from SS to 3B after just 10games in the minors at 3B.) This is not about thinking Devers will be a plus on D, in a short time. The bar set by Casas is just be the 27th to 29th best defender at 1B, and we'd improve. CASAS SUCKS ON D! The psyche part was just put out there, because some, here have mentioned his has a fragile ego and does not want to move off 3B. I don't agree with the "ego" thing, but some players really feel like they are more a part of the game, playing a position and not sitting on the bench during the opps ABs. I'd let them share 1B/DH, until one shws they are better than the other.

I also do not see this as "trading away the future," since Miller's 4 years of service remaining is about what you get from a rising prospect, anyway. They often take 1-2 years to adjust and give 4 productive seasons. I might even give Mayer & one or two from Kelly, Penrod, Bernardino or non-40 man Mata or for Miller.

I'm thinking Devers is probably better on D at 1B than Casas, or would be after a few weeks. Maybe they share 1B/DH duty and will never need a day off. Devers might enjoy playing in the field, more than D'ing, so maybe that could help his psyche.

We need to use the words "less" and "fewer" less often.

Maybe not. Miller has 4 years of control, and this one is pre-arb.

I'd say Devers/Casas shaare DH/1B duties, with Yoshida/Ref DH'ing on off days and platooning LF when not riding the bench. Duran plays CF (LF, when Yoshida/Ref are benched) and Abreu-Rafaela platoon RF w Rafaela playing some CF, 2B and maybe SS when not in RF. Maybe we try even harder to dump Yoshida, if we sign Bregman.

We ended up getting 2 comp picks for losing Wagner. Kolbrin Vitek Anthony Ranaudo (Later, we traded Ranaudo for Robbie Ross, who had a couple okay/decent seasons for us.)

At this point, Bregman is the only difference maker out there. We can't afford another top prospect(s) for an impact player. Bregman checks two boxes (RHB and plus D at 3B.) Maybe offer him a way higher AAV on a shorter deal, or maybe give an opt out after 1 or 2 years.

Big If.

True. I also think the strength and weakness of the bottom of the 40 plays into these chocies, too. Our last few DFA'd players ended up being traded. I think our 40 man roster is stringer at the bottom, than previous, recent seasons. As of now, here is how I see our most likely to DFA.trade list: Blake Sabol Bernardino, Zach Penrod, Justin Wilson (will get a look-see, first) Murphy can be added to the 60 Day IL on opening day, otherwise, he might make the list. Sandoval will be added day one, and that will make room for someone. Nick Sogard (We are very light on 40 man roster depth with everyday players, but having Campbell, Anthony and Mayer, "at the ready" to be added makes the situation not so urgent.)

Paul Sewald to Guardians for $7M/1.

He was the "borderline" Rule 5 guy, and I remember we did not see eye-to-eye on the choice to protect him. I'm glad we did, but certainly there is a chance he ends up not making it. I think it came down to the fear that a team like PIT, MIA or OAK might have selected him, based on his upside promise, only and not about any 2025 hopes.

Sounds about right. If a DHam-Romy/Grissom platoon is working well in ST'ing and into 2025, I wonder if they purposely delay Campbell's call-up, so he gains a year of control, while building up the trade value of our 2Bmen. I think Anthony might have an easier route to being the first call-up, despite our OF being viewed as a strength. We lost O'Neill. Abreu has horrific splits. Rafaela has not shown he can hit lefties or righties. Ref and Yoshida have clear defensive liabilities. Which seems like the better alignment? LF Anthony, CF Duran, RF Abreu-Rafaela LF Duran, CF Anthony-Rafaela, RF Abreu-Anthony (depending on L-R platoon bt Abreu-Rafaela) LF Anthony-Duran, Duran-Rafaela, Abreu-Anthony (see A-R platoon)

Probably some of our promising second tier prospects will not shine in 2025, but I think we have a lot of prospects poised for a jump. We also might see some "third tier" prospects jump up a tier. (The line between 2nd and third is blurry, for sure.) To me, Perales just needs to be healthy to move into the top 100. Arias, Cespedes and Bleis are probably the most recognizable names of prospects poised to jump up a tier, but I also like the Garcia brothers, Romero, Early, Valera and maybe Tolle and Sandlin. While Dobbins is ranked 8th, right now, I do not see the upside there for a jump into the top 100. Others I am watching, closely: Cason, Wehunt, Reyes, Monegro, Soto and Delzine. I did not mention highly ranked 9-Fitts, 17-Guerrero, 23 Paez, 24-Mullins and others. (Slaten, DHam & Priester is no longer prospects. Abreu & Rafaela graduated in early '24.)