moonslav59

You mean 1 year ago, right? Gio was injured, last year, after we signed him and before the 2024 season even started. He pitched over 161 IP, each year from 2021 to 2023. He didn't miss a start in 2020 and has 29+ starts in 2018 and 2019. He was as dependable as anyone, before we signed him. I think that was the idea in replacing the highly undependable Sale with him. Had he pitched well in 2024, we wouldn't have been as upset over the Sale trade, since we viewed the money saved as used for Gio. Yes, he'd have opted out after 2024, if he pitched like this, last year, but that doesn't change how we'd view Brez's 2024 budget spending. Plus, we'd have had $19M more to spend this year, and might have signed Fried not Buehler, instead.

Honestly, I still have faith in Casas as a hitter, but not 1Bman. He should DH, but we have Yoshida. I'd be fine going into 2026 with Casas, Campbell, Toro & Romy fighting for 1B playing time. (Maybe Duran could try out at 1B, since I see Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony & Garcia as better OF defenders,) BUT ONLY IF we fill our other high need areas fully and with clear plus players. This includes: Bregman returning. A top notch #2 SP'er (We lose Buehler & likely Gio.) A top notch Closer (We lose Chapman.) Do all three, and I'm okay rolling the dice at 1B/DH. I'd prefer a more dependable & known 1B, a replacement for Wilson and a decent back up catcher, but those are secondary needs. If we skimp on any of the 3 above, we'll need to fill these needs to make up for the loss.

I'm thinking the best trade might be Abreu & Buehler (+$) to PHI. Abel and some Sox prospects (like Romero, Sandlin & Early) to MIN Joe Ryan to BOS If we swap Abel for Painter, we'd need to give prospects to PHI but less to MIN.

He's 27th in IP since 2022 and has never started less than 23 games in the last 4 seasons (assuming he gets over 23, this year.) He's 28th in GS'd, too. No current of past Sox pitcher is above him on GS'd and only Pivetta has slightly more IP, but some were in relief.

Huh?

The thing about trading Abreu is that, in theory, Anthony can play RF vs R & L and allows Refsnyder to platoon at DH with Yoshida and then we can more afford to lose in 2026. (He's a FA.) He plays our RF very well. He has more HRs than Devers, this year, playing just 70% of the games. He has 2 more years of control than Duran and will cost less over the next 2 years. That's a lot of good stuff, but it's also what makes him so valuable to other teams, too. I must value SP'ing more than some of you guys. I'm not claiming you are wrong, but I will point out that pitchers who start 30+ games, often face more batters in a season than a 700 PA everyday player. For example, Logan Webb faced 841 batters in 2024. Sure, they were all bunched into just 33 games, but they are just as valuable as 650 to 700 scattered over many 160 games, many of which were blowouts or where a single player's input is near meaningless. Abreu & mid level prospects for Joe Ryan and an extension would be great for the Sox, and not just for 2025. The "step down" to Anthony might not even be a step down. The step up from Buehler to Ryan could be enormous.

Not Skenes of Skubal?

I can be wishy washy as I try to present both sides to issues, but I readily admit when I'm wrong, which is often, especially when you consider how many opinions I state. If we don't spend to the tax line, the trade will be bad, unless we strike gold with less spending, I guess. If we spend the money but swing and miss, we can say the trade sucked, unless Devers under performs, too. I'm not sure I'm presenting an opinion that can never be viewed as wrong.

When Bregman returns, there will be no Toro at 3B, but yes, a Toro-Romy platoon at 1B takes him out of the DH mix, and allows Ref to fill it. I was thinking we bot assumed we'd be adding a 1Bman. If we don't then subtract Romy and we still have 5 for 4 slots, not counting Campbell, who may best be suited for CF. If Campbell ends up at 1B (or Yoshida) then Romy is back into the DH mix. We have awesome depth, except at C, 3B and maybe 2B, which should be fixed upon Bregman's return. Upgrading higher need areas with some of that depth makes very good sense to me. I think we need 4 starters for the playoffs. As of now, it looks like we do, but you know how that goes. In 2 weeks we might need 2. (I am not for trading top prospects for a rental SP, RP or 1Bman.)

Certainly, we all know we are racking up runs vs some bad teams, but we've also done well vs some good pitching teams, too: 14 runs/3 gms at SFG (5th in team ERA- and 2nd in FIP) 18 runs/3 gams vs div leader TOR (19th in ERA-) 22 runs/3 gms vs Cincy (10th in ERA- in MLB, even after facing us. They might have been 8th before.) I'm still worried about our inconsistent offense. I'd like to see an upgrade at 1B, unless Yoshida can do it without embarrassing himself and the team. (Campbell?) Once Bregman returns, 2B should be fine. I don't see another area on offense that needs fixing, except a 20% catcher.

I just threw Hoskins out there, but would be fine with someone better, like Alonso. I don't see how we "make it work" without constantly having a deserving player on the bench and areas of need going unaddressed or filled by minor deadline deals like for Urias and Lucas Simms types. Maybe, we get lucky with a Nate or Schwarber type deal, but counting on that is asking for a letdown. We have 4 slots with OF & DH. Here is who we need to be playing: vs RHPs: Abreu, Duran, Rafaela, Anthony, Yoshida and Campbell at some point. (Casas at DH in '26) That's easily 5 and maybe 6 players for 4 slots. vs LHPs: Refsnyder, Rafaela, Anthony, Duran and Romy if not at 1B. (Garcia before long. '26?) That's 5 for 4 slots, but eventually 6 w Jh Garcia. (If we add a 1Bman, Romy is a must at DH vs L.) If we had no weak areas, sure, make it work somehow, but we have several weak areas, and I'm not trading Rafaela. Yoshida is untradeable. A Refsnyder trade would only affect one of these lists, and it's the shorter list. It's not at all about my dislike for Duran or Abreu. I really like them both, a lot. I happen to like Anthony and Rafaela more and recognize that keeping some sort of Yoshida/ Romy-Ref platoon at DH makes more sense. In short, Duran and Abreu would be more valuable to a few other teams than to us, and that is often the impetuous for a trade.

It makes sense that when Bloom failed to trade Sale, they may have pressure Brez to do it, or move other high salaries. Even clearing some cash from Sale, still left Brez with a limited budget. The Devers extension was set to kick in, so I won't count that as "new spending," but it was likely part of a tightening of the winter spending of '23-'24. (They also lost some salary by shedding Verdugo & others.) $19.5M x 2 Giolito $7M/1 O'Neill trade $5M x 2 Hendriks $2M x 1 Joely We can bitch about teh "failure to upgrade," but what can you do with about $33M AAV, when you had a losing season, then subtracted Sale, Dugo and others? had Gio pitched like this in 2024, we'd say he did a pretty good job with $33M, despite Henriks & Joely's lack of help.

I'm assuming "everyone" is only with prospects. IMO, if we keep Arias, Romero can be traded. Sandlin is borderline.

I agree. I doubt they make this trade with zero return or just Bello & Tibbs. I agree on the "pool" analogy, as well, but that increased pool ($20M for 2 years then $30M more for 6 more) will translate into tangible players, as long as JH doesn't go cheap, along the way (again.) I'm hoping JH spends even more than the estimated $76M we may have below the tax line, this winter. I'd like to see him get just below the 1st tier, minimum, so about $95M to spend: $30M SP $18M Closer $25M 1B $22M back-up Catcher plus extensions to Anthony & Mayer. (Take some from 1B, if we need more for extensions.) Trade Duran or Abreu for a key piece (Maybe with prospects for Ryan.) SP: Crochet, Cease, Ryan, Bello, Sandoval, Dobbins, Harrison, Fitts, Tolle & Early RP Helsley, Whitlock, Slaten, Houck, Hicks, Murphy, Perales, Sandlin, Weissert, Alcara, Guerrero, Kelly, I Campbell 1. L Mayer 2B 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Abreu RF/ R Romy DH 4. L Anthony LF 5. R Story SS 6. L Yoshida DH/ R Refsnyder RF 7. R Hoskins 1B (L Casas/ S Toro) 8. R Narvaez C (_____?) 9. R Rafaela CF (R Jh Garcia?) This looks damn good, to me.

I agree. I doubt they make this trade with zero return or just Bello & Tibbs. I agree on the "pool" analogy, as well, but that increased pool ($20M for 2 years then $30M more for 6 more) will translate into tangible players, as long as JH doesn't go cheap, along the way (again.) I'm hoping JH spends even more than the estimated $76M we may have below the tax line, this winter. I'd like to see him get just below the 1st tier, minimum, so about $95M to spend: $30M SP $18M Closer $25M 1B $22M back-up Catcher plus extensions to Anthony & Mayer. (Take some from 1B, if we need more for extensions.) Trade Duran or Abreu for a key piece (Maybe with prospects for Ryan.) SP: Crochet, Cease, Ryan, Bello, Sandoval, Dobbins, Harrison, Fitts, Tolle & Early RP Helsley, Whitlock, Slaten, Houck, Hicks, Murphy, Perales, Sandlin, Weissert, Alcara, Guerrero, Kelly, I Campbell 1. L Mayer 2B 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Abreu RF/ R Romy DH 4. L Anthony LF 5. R Story SS 6. L Yoshida DH/ R Refsnyder RF 7. R Hoskins 1B (L Casas/ S Toro) 8. R Narvaez C (_____?) 9. R Rafaela CF (R Jh Garcia?) This looks damn good, to me.

I think we will try very hard to avoid this deadline looking like a punt on 2025. That means keeping Bregman, Chapman and Giolito. If we can somehow trade Duran or Abreu for MLB talent, then it won't be punting. (Perhaps we trade an OF'er for prospects, but then also trade some prospects for a player equal to the traded OF'er's value to balance it out.) I hope we don't make major prospect trades for rentals, but I'm fine with trading some mid levels for rentals, like the Nate & Schwarber deals from past deadlines- hopefully not like the Luis Garcia, Lucas Sims and Urias deals from recent seasons. I keep mentioning Joe Ryan, but someone like him would be a major score. Trading the farm away for Gallen & Suarez would not be my idea of a good idea. We'd have to win a ring, this year to make it work, and it still could come back to bite us, later on. Trade Duran or Abreu. Add or trade separately players like Wong, Grissom, DHam, Eaton, Toro, Kelly, Guerrero and maybe Buehler, but more to just make roster room than to get something useful in return. Add or trade separately some mid level prospects like Arias (top end) or Romero (not both), Bleis, Cespedes, Jordan, Castro, Jordan and prospect pitchers like Sandlin, Early, Paez and Mullins. If guys like Perales and Monegro have little trade value due to injury issues, keep them. In short, I'd try to keep the rookies, Tolle, Garcia, Clarke and Valera, unless we get something more than a rental. (I'm not sure I want to trade Arias for just a rental, either, but maybe if we can get Gallen & Suarez as part of a big package of mis prospects + Duran/Abreu.)

We can't know which money was spent where, but if we spend near what our budget was to start 2026, I'll be thinking we spent the money that replaced all the departing contracts, including $21M for Buehler, $19M for Gio, $12M for Chapman and smaller deals departing as well. If we use some of all this money to extend Anthony and other younger players beyond the arb window, I'd consider that as using "some" of the Devers savings, too. Cots has us $76M under the tax line for 2026, with Hicks counting as $10M, so out of the $76M, we can allocate: $21M Buehler $19M Devers $19M Giolito $12M Chapman That comes pretty close to $76M. If we bring back Chapman or Gio, count that as saved money spent. (I'm assuming we extend Bregman to near his AAV, now.) To me, we should try to target the spending on 2 major additions: SP#2 ($23-28M AAV) Closer ($13-18M AAV) Minor additions: C#2 ($3-5M AAV) 1Bman (assuming we don't move and OF'er, Campbell or Yoshida to 1B) at $5-8M AAV RP ($3-5M AAV- like Wilson) That's close to $70M. Do that, and I'll consider the Devers savings were spent.

I think Bregman and Gio could get nice returns. Wilson, Refsnyder and Buehler not so much. If we trade Chapman, we might as well trade all FAs-to-be plus maybe Duran and players like DHam, Grissom and Eatone, even if the latter are for meager returns.

It would be great, if Buehler got his act together to give us 2-3 nice starts before the deadline. The return of Dobbins, and the nice brief return by Fitts offer rotation hopes, too. Sandoval is the big wild card. Back to Buehler: 8.68 ERA/ 6.41 FIP first 2 starts 2.56/3.91 starts 3 to 8 10.38/8.47 starts 9 to 14 Start 15: 5IP 8 hits, 0BB, 2K and 2ER We need to see the Starts 3 to 8 Buehler, again. Tonight is a good time to show us.

My point was that the going rate for SP'er additions has been $5-10M per starter from 2020 to the Gio, then Buehler signings. Trading Sale added about $10M to the winter SP'er budget, and that's about the difference between $10M/1 and $19M x 2. I think the Sale trade was directly linked to the Gio signing, and many felt the same way, at the time. Many were upset we stopped with Gio, including Bell and me. I'm thinking had we not traded Sale, we's have signed just a $5-10M/1 SP'er, once again.

I'm not sure the trade was made to be "won" with the returns. I think they viewed Devers as a problem and thought freeing up the money would allow them to replenish higher need areas over the next 8+ years. That being said, I think all 4 of the return players show some sort of promise. Harrison probably has the highest hope of giving something very meaningful. Tibbs gives us some minor league depth (maybe 1B could help..) J Bello is promising but too far away to get hopes up. Hicks could be a force from the pen, but questions linger. IMO, if and how we spend the money will be what makes or breaks this trade, and of course how Devers ages. We all saw how we failed to replenish the Betts money, as well as half Prices's, Porcello's and others afterwards. If we follow that same path, it's hard to imagine this trade working well for us, unless Devers implodes.

They both have trade value, but keeping them probably makes more sense. Early, Paez, Wehunt and the like could be substituted. They won't be deal makers, but on close balanced trades, they might entice a yes.

Some Sox OAAs: 1B: -2 Toro (Romy -1/ Casas -3) 2B: +1 DHam (-1 Romy/ -8 Campbell) SS: -2 Story (hard to believe) 3B: +2 Mayer, +1 Bregman- also unbelievable (-1 Toro/-2 Eaton) LF: -6 Duran, -2 Refsnyder (tainted numbers) CF: +14 Rafaela (0 Campbell & Duran) RF: +5 Abreu (aided by bigger RF area) +3 Anthony (way less time than Abreu) and 0 Refsnyder (should be a minus) DRS: (1200+ players with 20+ innings) +14 Rafaela (3rd out of all players at all positions) +12 Narvaez (8th) +8 Abreu (20th) +7 DHam (30th) +5 Bregman & Anthony (48) +4 Duran (74) +2 Refsnyder & Wong +1 Story, DHam (SS), Mayer (3B) 0 Toro (3B) Romy & Sogard(1B) -1 Campbell (CF) -2 Romy (2B) -3 Eaton (3B) -5 Toro & Casas (1B) -15 Campbell (2B)

He should have climbed the ladder to nab that one hit.

I know my tendency is to just make the list longer or choice orientated, and teams prefer quality over quantity, but guys like Monegro and Mullins are not really chump change. Perales and Early would be coveted by every MLB team, but Perales needing to be on the 40 creates issues for many teams.