moonslav59

Going by total AAV and ignoring JH's penchant for avoiding long term deals, who do you sign if you have $45 or $65M? MLBTR projections: $30M x 5 F Valdez $28M x 4 Alonso $27M x 7 Cease $27M x 6 Bregman $27M x 5 Schwarber $26 x 8 Bichette $25M x 6 Imai $23M x 5 Suarez $22M x 3 Woodruff $22M x 1 G Torres $21M x 3 Suarez $20M x 4 M King & Z Gallen $18M x 4 Naylor $18M x 2 M Kelly $17M x 4 D Williams $17M x 3 Polanco $16M x 4 Okamoto $16M x 2 Giolito $15M x 2 Kim & Realmuto $13M x 2 O'Hearn & N Martinez $12M x 2 Littell $7M x 2 Willi Castro $7M??? Josh Bello & R Hoskins My chocies: $45M: 28 Alonso + 17 Polanco 28 Alonso + 16 Okamoto 27 Schwarber (DH) + 21M Suarez (3B) and -$3M Duran for Lodolo 21 Suarez + 17 Polanco + 7 Hoskins/Bell $65M 28 Alonso + 27 Schwarber + 7 Castro 28 Alonso + 21 Suarez + 17 Polanco 28 Alonso + 27 Bregman/26 Bichette + 7 Castro

The thing is, he did "perform immediately." He just fell off a cliff after about 20 games. His D sucked from day one. Again, I'm fine with the opinion he was "rushed." I'm not saying he wasn't. My point is that just because someone has a prolonged slump, we don't always know for sure why.

I have been pretty consistent in suggesting we trade for a SP'er and sign bats, but could we also trade for a bat? Something like... Duran for Lodolo Mayer, Harrison & Clarke for K Marte Sign Alonso, Suarez, Matz & Refsnyder ________________________ 1. L Anthony LF 2. S KMarte 2B 3. R Suarez 3B 4. R Alonso 1B 5. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder RF 6. R Story SS 7. L Yoshida DH/ R Refsnyder DH 8. R Narvaez 9. R Rafaela CF Bench: Wong, Romy, Refsnyder, DHam SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Bello, 2 from Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Early, Tolle, Perales, Criswell RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Matz, Weissert, Bernardino, Hicks, 1 from Wink, Criswell, Moran, Murphy, Kelly

No doubt. I'm not sure they thought he'd be that bad on D, but they also thought the 2024 2B bar was so low, they didn't need much to "improve" at 2B on O and D. Yes, 11 players played 2B, last year, but E Valdez played about 1/3 of the innings and did worse on O & D than KC. Grissom was 3rd in innings at 2B and was way worse on O and D. I really think it was about wanting Mayer to have more time to rehab and get ready for SS, in case Story got hurt. Sometimes choices made involve more than just who is better or "more ready."

Oh, I get that, but last winter saw some significant changes: 1. Bregman was signed at an AAV 30% higher than any previous contract. 2. The Buehler SP'er signing was double the AAV of any SP'er FA, except Gio (see below), signing since Price. 3. The multi prospect extensions show a clear change in direction/philosophy. The 1-2 seasons before last winter saw: 1. The Devers extension that blew away the record Price signing from many years ago. 2. The Giolito signing was about almost double the AAV and double the years of any FA SP'er signing since Price. (I see the Nate signing as an extension.) 3. The 2023 signings of Yoshida (5 yrs) and Jansen (highest closer AAV ever by a Sox RP'er.) 4. The Bello & Rafaela extensions marked the start of a new philosophy. Please do not take these facts as me defending JH or as a projection that he will continue breaking his stubborn ways, but the fact is the trend is moving towards a willingness to do things he hasn't approved of in many many years. I'm hopeful but not expecting anything. We can do a lot of what I suggest and still stay under the tax line, so I think there is some room for hope. The next big hurdle for JH to jump is to go Large and Long- and I'm not talking Story or Masa type deals. I'm actually talking 2 deals: one for someone like Alonso and then another in the Story/Masas range (Suarez/Polanco or even Bregman/Bichette, but that is highly unlikely)

Indeed. There was a reason KC won Minor League Player of the Year over Anthony, Mayer and others. When you look at the list of previous winners, we should not be thinking so negatively about KC. I'm sure when you look at the first 200+ PAs by previous winners and other MLB stars, we find many struggles early on. It might not mean they were rushed or wrongly promoted.

If we have just one "major signing," I'd prefer it not be Bregman or Bichette. We need more power and higher OPS from the "major." To me, that's Alonso or Schwarber. Signing or adding two from this group would be okay: Bregman, Bichette, Suarez, Polanco, KMarte. Casas coudl end up at DH, if he finds his way back to a starting role and proves he's healthy. IMO, having Casas at a low cost should not be a reason we avoid Alonso. How JH sees it may be as you suggest. I fully understand that point.

I don't see things in black and white so much. There were several reasons to give KC a shot, including the point about trying 11 secondbasemen the year before. I did prefer giving Mayer the first shot, but there were reasons to think he needed some rehab time, as well as wanting to keep him getting SS reps, until we got a clearer idea on Story and his health at SS. In hindsight, we can argue "KC was not ready and it showed," but that is an opinion. It could have just been a long slump that he was about to snap out of. We'll never know. I have no issue with the opinion we were wrong or that he was "rushed," but it's not a certainty. The big question, now is are we ready to hand him another FT slot or even an inside track to one?

I think we will make one major signing, but if it's just Bregman and little else, I'd be pissed. I'm okay with Alonso or Schwarber plus giving Mayer & Anthony FT positions and Campbell the inside opportunity to win a FT slot.

True, but after what KC did at all levels, promoting him made sense. Had we never called him up, we'd be talking "why not?"

There might be more teams, this year. Whoever misses out on Schwarber might go hard after Alonso. I do NOT think the Mets bid as high as it takes to get him. I think they'll set a number and not go higher. There are other 1B options they might like.

Agreed, I'd "settle" on Mitch Keller, if he got us one of these tandem signings: Alonso + Bregman 3B/Suarez 3B /Polanco 2B/Bichette 2B Schwarber + Bregman3B/Suarez3B/Polanco2B Borderline acceptable... Bregman + Suarez (1B) Bichetts + Suarez (1B) KMarte + Suarez (1B)

If we trade 2 OF'ers, I'm assuming we get some very nice talent back to fill a couple positions that include 1B, 2B, 3B and maybe DH. I'd hope will fill another one with a big bat like Alonso or Schwarber with Suarez, Polanco, KMarte or maybe Bichette/Bregman, and then I'd be okay with giving Campbell a good chance to win the LF slot against Garcia.

He'd be a "settling" addition, or an "in the mix" with Casas at 1B addition. If he's our 3Bman, we better have Alonso at 1B and either Polanco at 2B or Suarez at 1B and Schwarber at DH

Too many years of control lost on the GG RF'er with decent power. 2025 HRs/650 PAs 33 Abreu 25 Story & Refsnyder 24 Bregman 21 Narvaez 17 Anthony, Romy & Duran 16 Rafaela

To those who think we have to re-examine our prospect MLB readiness evaluations, how many of these call-ups worked vs not worked? Campbell Narvaez Dobbins Mayer Anthony Early Tolle

I get the feeling that even a monster ST'ing, which was used against him last spring, will not be enough to convince some to "hand the suspect" a FT job on the opening day MLB club.

Great point. He was also shuffled around on positions.... again.

I was one of those "most of us." How many of us though, "Man was I wrong," after 20 games? Now, we look back and say, "See, we were right!" Sorry, I kinda think it rings hollow, now. In hindsight, okay. At the time, it was not a no-brainer. Plus, holding back on promoting Mayer and Anthony had two issues attached: 1. OF and SS were taken. (Yes, Mayer could play 2B, but we wanted him to find his groove at SS.) 2. The added year of control by waiting. (KC was already signed.)

Mayer had missed the end of the '24 season and a lot of time before that. It was reasonable to want to give him some time to find a groove. BTW, I was for Mayer over KC, too, back on day one, but it wasn't a clear choice, to me. I think they saw Mayer as Story's primary back-up and wanted to see how Trevor looked. That may have been part of the discussion.

The minors was a much larger sample size than the ST'ing one you cite.

Agreed. 99% he starts in AAA, unless we intentionally trade 1-2 OF'ers to make room for him to have a shot at beating out Garcia for the LF slot. (Duran & Abreu traded & Anthony in RF or Duran/Abreu + Rafaela traded w Anthony/Duran in CF.)

Agreed. He'd also cost way less. As far as I can tell, Bubic has a 12.1 BTV, and when you figure a $6M final arb estimate, they think he's worth $18M/1. Would you do any of these exchanges? 13.5 Casas 12.5 Romy 11.6 Perales 9.5 Harrison + 1.3 Winckowski 5.5 Sandlin + 5.5 Eyanson I'd say no to Romy and depending on who we add at 1B, maybe no to Casas. Probably yes on Perales of the last one. Probably no on Harrison.

I don't want Bohm.

I just assumed it was about Mitch. Brad is a 5/6.