moonslav59

Mayer's injury further worries team management and fans on what the future holds. He also has yet to prove or even show great promise in his short time in the bigs. His defense looked pretty good, and his ability to play decent 3B and 2B is encouraging, but we learned we just cannot count on him as a FT, MLB player, until he shows us he can do it. It's too bad. He had a wide opening at 2B screaming for his taking, and he missed the 2025 window. I don't think the team can count on him for 2026, either, except as possible, sporadic depth.

Getting him back and in true form could be huge. I just hate waiting and waiting, and this rarely happens.

Mayer going to the 60 should open up 1. Toro is out of options, so I see him getting DFA'd.

Manny young players with just 1-2 seasons under their belt do improve on their career numbers, especially the ones who show they have improved from year 1 to 2 and from 2 to 3, like Rafaela has in K rate, BB rate and OPS (so far in year 3.) I don't know if he'll improve, but I question why anyone would expect him not to improve and focus with pinpoint accuracy every time he slumps or falters, as if that is the norm, but when he's doing well, you explain how it will go back down, again. You do realize that every time it goes down, it's after going up, right? He's down and UP. The up parts should be just as predictable as the downs, right? We only hear about the one part, over and over. We are all tired of mediocrity and "wait until next year," and it wasn't me who wanted us to dump at the deadline for "wait till next year." I can see the reasoning for making the biggest deals in winter and not grossly overpaying at the TDL. I wish we'd done more, but I get it. Now that we decided to do just about nothing, our chances look pretty good to make the playoffs and not all that bad to win the AL, as no AL team looks dominant, right now. We have played well vs some of the best teams in MLB, even the NL ones. There is reason to be at least cautiously optimistic. There is less reason to be morbidly pessimistic. This is not the 2022, 2023 or even the 2023 team.

15-5 in 10 games?

Oh, so 30 days for OPS but whole season for record. 90 is not mediocre. It's pretty close. 88 is top end of mediocre, and yes I'm greatly upset with mediocrity. I think this team has taken a significant step forward, and the future looks even brighter. I'm not a Pollyanna. There are strong reasons to see verifiable improvements in several areas. You chose to narrow the focus to set sample sizes to highlight how bad things are. You give fact, but only selected ones that vary in timeframe to suit your point. When Rafaela was doing well for a month, it meant little to you- now it takes on great meaning.

I've never disputed Rafaela's streakiness and lack of discipline. He has improved on his K rate and on his BB rate. K rate: 27.1 first 2 seasons 19.2 in 2025 BB rate: 2.9 first 2 seasons 4.7 this year Can he keep improving? Maybe. Can he stay over .725 with a 20 K rate and 5 BB rate? Not an easy thing to do, for sure.

Dispute this: Last month, the Sox are 15-12 (a 90 win pace.)

Next 10: BOS: 6 vs BAL (doing better) 4 vs NYY NYY: 4 v BOS, 3 vs WSH, 2 v TBR, 1 v CWS SEA: 3 v PHI, ATH, SDP and 1 v CLE TOR: 3 v PIT, MIA, MIN and 1 v CIN (It gets harder after this) HOU: 4 v BAL and 3 v DET & COL

I never disputed a single number. Why ask that? I asked why the 1 month sample size means more than 2, 3 or 4 month sample sizes.

Jh Garcia played 1B, yesterday.

What extra significance does one month have? Is it proven that most players rarely improve upon their last 30 day numbers? I've quotes last month stats, too, but I never even dream that these numbers show anything more than what they just did. I do think hot hand should play more and slumping players, less, in general, but history shows most players go up and down, all the time.

He should be in CF, agreed. We should have traded an OF'er for a SP'er, last winter. It is what it is: a big mistake by Brez. There is no reason to think Rafaela will continue to slide on O. I do agree, his defense suffers at 2B. Maybe we can play Romy at 2B and Lowe at 1B, but then we have to get Cora to bench Yoshida, so an OF'er DHs.

So? He's gained 47 in the last 2 months. +61 in 3 months +108 in 4 months But only 1 month counts, I guess.

Ohhh, only the last month counts, now. Got it. Why should that count any more than the last 2 months, 3 months or even 2 weeks? Could it be because it fits your narrative of doom & gloom? You brought up the offense. Clearly Narvaez and Rafaela are significantly above average, if you count D and running. Narvaez is 8th in fWAR among catcher. Rafaela is 4th in fWAR in CF, and he's played 2B many games. If you really think they are even near average, then we are too far apart to even have a discussion.

Out of 350 players with 150+ PAs, number 135 has a 1.5 fWAR (the mean of 270 player or 9 per 30 teams) Teams should have 4-5 players above 1.5: we have 8. Romy is at 1.2 in just 66 games. I'm guessing we have more players over 1.2 and 1.5 than any other team. If I'm wrong, maybe 1 or 2 teams have the same or more.

Romy is a top 30 batter in MLB. Rafaela and Narvaez are slightly above average, but call them average. Among catchers, being near .720 is significantly above average, and he and Wong are plus on D. Take a look at other teams through the same lense you look at the Sox. Almost all have way more below avg players than we do. Our strength is in balance and having very few bad players or even slightly below players. Concentrating on just O is kinds weird, too, but we hold our own on O.

Less than 60 pitchers in MLB have a higher fWAR and more IP than Bello and Giolito at 1.3. Crochet is #2 in fWAR (5.0) ERA- 4. Crochet at 57 22. Bello at 76 36. Giolito at 85 That's far from average. Best closer in MLB: average?

Rafaela has been an above avg hitter and GG type CF'er. Teams win with guys like Rafaela, many many times. Too many Toro's, Hicks' and ICampbells can do a team in, but we don't have too many that bad.

Most championship teams have many players near average and several above or highly above average. They also have precious few very bad players. This team lacks a mega star hitter, beyond Bregman, who was not excellent in recent years on offense. The MLB OPS is .719, and most competitive teams are above that mark, and the Sox are +.033. MIL, PHI, NYM, DET, SEA, HOU, SDP, ATL, KCR, TEX & CLE are below us. Three competitive teams are ahead of us. .776 NYY .770 LAD .768 TOR .752 T CHC & BOS How is this average? 270 players (30 teams x 9 players) have 225+ PAs. 120 of them are below .719. That's an average of about 4 per team: we have one: Toro, and he is about to be replaced. (Ref does not qualify.) We have 2 in the top 23 players (Bregman & Romy) + 1 more than avg 3 in the top 36 (Anthony) + 1 more than avg. 4 in top 58 (Abreu) +2 more than avg 5 in top 81 (Duran) +2 7 in top 143 (Rafaela & Narvaez) +2

Our pen has the 4th best fWAR in MLB. fWAR is largely influenced by more IP, and yet the Sox are 18th in pen IP. Our pen is 2nd in ERA-. You don't get ranked this highly with just one pitcher who places 4th in PAs against (Chapman.) Whitlock (.568 OPSA) and Slaten (.465,) when healthy have done a great job. Weissert has been our #3 pen guy with Slaten out, and has a .670 OPSA and has faced the second most batters from the pen. Ideally, he'd be our #4, but he's okay as a #3. Wilson has slipped, som. He's down to .679, now. Maybe a Bernardino (.566) call-up will help. We will likely need someone to step it up.

SFG gave up two great pitchers: Hicks and Harrison! LOL

Sorry. My bad. It's not for me to say where a conversation should lead. It is too early to judge.

Me, too. Even Bloom... '21 -105 Elmer Rod (got us Narvaez), 226 Dobbins, 496 Guerrero '22 -79 Anthony '23 - Campbell Brez... '24 -50 Tolle

My guess is the success rate of trying to put a % on players who have been in the minors already for 2-3+ years in much higher than going by what slot they were drafted years ago.