I almost have more faith in Hernandez, Holt and Moncada. I won't go so far as to say Pablo.
Shaw reminds me too much of Middy. Big flash, then back to reality.
Shaw had 668 PAs at AAA and a .715 OPS. His .795 OPS at AA in 870 PAs is also unimpressive.
I think even expecting him to play at his career .754 MLB OPS is asking for too much.
I'm not writing him off, but I'm not betting on him winning the job either.
I agree that signing another 3B scrub makes little sense. Assuming no 3B pick-ups, here's how I would put the odds on who is the opening day 3Bman (barring injury) and who plays the most innings at 3B next year:
Opening Day:
33% Holt
25% Shaw
17% Moncada
10% Pablo
10% Hernandez
5% Swihart
Most 3B Innings by season end:
33% Moncada
20% Holt
20% Shaw
10% Swihart
10% Hernandez
7% Pablo