moonslav59

Watching the championship series just confirms that pitching and defense overcomes offensive prowess. The Guardians and Blue Jays and one of the Dodgers and Cubs games have been very low scoring. Keep that in mind before going in big for an expensive FA bat for a long term contract. He might help a team reach the playoffs but is just another hitter once against playoff pitching. I've always been a firm believer in pitching and defense over hitting, but who would have thought the Guardians had a great pitching staff once Carrasco and Salazar went down injured? Yes, they have a great pen, especially once they got Miller, but their rotation without those two is not one I'd want going into the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, they have some nice starters and still have Kluber, but come on.

I hope you're right, and maybe this will be the year we say, "screw the comp picks" and go out and sign EE, Turner and Jensen. Keep all the kids, and let them sort themselves out. We can always make trades later. However, a 50% luxury tax is not easy to swallow, especially when you consider Henry is also paying Craig and Castillo on the side above and beyond the luxury tax.

It seems strange that he has such high value to us and nobody else. He'd get way more PAs for other teams than with us. We'll have Hernandez and possibly Swihart to fill his shoes on the 25 man roster- both of whom are better options at just about every position Holt plays. I'm not expecting much in return for him, but as part of a larger package, he may save us from having to part with Moncada, Devers or Kopech. For example, maybe a team will take Swihart, Owens and Holt instead of one of our big 3. It would be worth it to me, if that were the case.

That's the thing, Kimmi, a major league baseball team isn't in the business of just GIVING chances. You earn them. And I just explained to you exactly why I don't think that even if you are in the habit of giving charity chances, Pablo should just be handed one on Opening Day. I'm not making excuses for Pablo, but the guy was enormous when we signed him. We paid him $19M x 5 years. A MLB team is also not "in the business" of disallowing big contract players a chance to comeback from injury and lack of conditioning, especially for a player that was not in good physical condition when they signed him. The real question should be, "why did we sign him in the first place?"

It is likely pitching and 3rd will be addressed. Hope that can happen without weakening ourselves in other positions or giving away key prospects going forward. Recognizing you have to give up something when trading for something, it will all be about value. I'd love to be able to keep all our key young players and all our top prospects, especially Moncada, Devers, Kopech, Groome and Basabe. IF we're fine with going over the luxury limit and go large and long on EE and pick up a couple RP'ers, maybe we can hold off on making any rash decisions until we know more. Keep Leon, Vazquez and Swihart, until we are more certain, which one we want. Of course, it may run the risk of one losing value by sucking next year. Maybe see if Swihart can play 3B. Keep Moncada and Devers as 3B options for 2018 and beyond. Maybe see about moving Moncada to OF or Devers to 1B at some point. Keep Groome & Kopech. Keep the 6 vet starters. Maybe one helps fill a key pen need in 2017. Basabe or Travis? Maybe, maybe, maybe.... Perhaps, we can hold off at 3B or find some cheap quick fix. We could also see what's around at the deadline, if things are not working out at third. Gotta like the mix of prime players, pre-prime stars and highly rated prospects: C: Leon, Vaz, Swi 1B: HanRam, Shaw, (Pablo/Swihart?), Travis 2B: Pedroia, Moncada, Holt 3B: Pablo/Shaw/Moncada, Holt/Hernandez/Rutledge, Devers, Dalbec/Chavis SS: Bogey, Hernandez, Holt, Dubon LF: Beni/Young, Holt/Swihart, Basabe CF: JBJ (Betts/Beni), Holt, Young RF: Betts, (Beni), Young, Holt DH: Pablo-Young, (HanRam, Swihart, Moncada) SP: Porcello, Price, ERod, Wright, Buch/Pom Elias, Owens, Johnson, Kopech, Groome RP: Kimbrel, Smith (Buch or Pom), Kelly, Ross, Barnes, Abad Hembree, Scott, Workman, Elias (Owens/Johnson/Kopech/Groome)

Some teams have multiple needs and no prospect ready to fill them and little money to fill them either. Holt would have enormous value to them, because they'd have the flex to use him at two or three positions, but FT overall. While Holt's splits might not be all that great for the Sox, or his .650 to .700 OPS long stretches might be unacceptable to the Sox, those numbers are better than some teams have as options at numerous positions. Here's a look at what some teams had for OPS at some of the positions Holt plays: 2B: OAK .566, LAA .617. KCR .630, ATL .631, CIN .674, LAD .687, PIT .689, CWS .699, SFG & MIA .700, TOR .704 3B: CIN .701, ATL .703, SFG & NYY .704, KCR .712 There's several teams on both of those lists. LF: PHI .593, LAA .628, HOU .633, LAD .674. KCR .680, WSH .687 I could see Holt being possibly more valuable to the Royals, Dodgers, Giants, Reds and Braves.

I have to think if the guy has a shred of pride somewhere inside him, he'll try to be in much much better shape next year. The one piece of evidence not many Pablo bashers want to talk about is how his former team, widely viewed as a very well managed team, was clearly upset that he took Boston's offer and did not return to SF. They obviously knew his about his character and weight issues but still wanted him back. I'm not counting on Pablo to give us one inning next year, but I'm not counting him out either.

True, but he may be worth more to another team as a starter than to us as a utility player, especially now that we no longer have a DH-only DH. I like Holt a lot and respect the value of someone who is not embarrassed at playing 7 positions, but can anyone name one position where he is clearly our number one back-up next year? 1B- HanRam> Shaw/Pablo> Swihart? (Travis this year?) 2B- Pedroia> Moncada> Holt/Hernandez 3B- Shaw/Pablo> Moncada/Holt/Hernandez> Rutledge/Marrero (Devers) SS- Bogey> Hernandez> Marrero/Holt> (Dubon) LF- Beni>Young>Holt CF- JBJ> (Betts/Beni with Young playing LF)> Holt RF- Betts> (Beni with Young in LF)> Holt

Then, it should also be noted that we got these WARs in return.... Peavy 2013 1.0 Peavy 2014 0.2 Then, we essentially traded Peavy for Hembree... Hembree 2016 0.3 Hembree 2014 -0.1 Hembree 2015 -0.2 I see a net WAR or +1.2 with more upside for Hembree possible. Fangraphs had Igg's WAR as... 2013: 0.8 w/DET (1.9 both teams) 2014: 0.0 (injured) 2015: 1.6 2016: 2.1 Total: +4.5

I hated the trade, but within the context and realization that Iggy was never going to be our FT SS, we essentially traded a utility IF'er for a solid SP'er. As much as I hated the idea, since I wanted Bogey at 3B and Iggy at SS, the trade made sense.

Thanks Kimmi, and I didn't mean to vent on you, because I know you don't assume someone is giving up on a player just because they suggest a trade. It's funny how most of my suggested trades are criticized for "giving up too much", when in reality, I think my suggested offers are probably under what it might take. It's all speculation in the end though. For all we know, the CWS may have already decided not to rebuild, or if they do want to trade, they may want JBJ, Swihart and Kopech.

Too much talent given up for frazier and Robertson. We dont need another LHP andway...at least not without trading one. Porcello, Wright and Buch are RHPs, so we could move Pom to the pen or trade a lefty. We might also include ERod (plus someone else) in the trade to Chicago, instead of Moncada.

I look at it this way, the money spent on Moncada is the money saved on Quintana, as his $4.2M luxury tax cost is a windfall of savings on future tax consequences. Moncada's money does not an will not count against the luxury tax. Our tax will be 50% in 2017, if we got over. That's a very significant aspect of any addition we contemplate. Look, I'm not for trading Moncada. I think he could become one of the greatest players of the next decade. Look, I'm not for trading Moncada. I think he could be one of the greatest players of the decade. However, Quintana is an ace getting paid less than an arb pitcher of average quality. The money he will save us on the luxury tax should not be underestimated. Our tax rate will be 50% next season. Moncada's money does not cost against the limit and will not cost if we trade him. I'm not saying $60M means nothing to Henry, but it balances the low cost of Quintana. I'd love to find a way to get Q without parting with Moncada, but I don't want to trade JBJ either. I doubt Swihart and Kopech get us Q. We could add Basabe, and they'd still say no.

A lot would depend on how highly KC values our prospects. I think we might be surprised at how much variance there is from GM to GM on placing value of a particular player or prospect. If KC viewed Moncada as a possible OF'er or 2Bman, maybe they'd try really hard to get him. They probably are not in great need of a catcher, so Swihart and Vaz might not be someone we can dangle in front of them. I doubt they'd value Shaw or Holt highly enough to make a big impact on the package we can offer. We may not match up that well due to Moncada and Devers being our best young offensive players, and KC seemingly having a 3Bman waiting in the wings already. Maybe one could be moved to 1B or LF. (Note: KC is reportedly taking offers on Wade Davis. Maybe a bigger deal could be worked out.)

I think we should try to get Pablo to check in for a physical on the 1st of every month this winter. If he's not showing steady weight loss AND improve conditioning, then we need to look for a bridge to Moncada/Devers at 3B for 2017. Even if he is in shape, he may still be best used as a platoon DH with Young, so I'm on board with not even waiting. Let's see what the CWS want for Frazier, and while we're at it, let's see what a Frazier-Robertson return would cost us.

Holt's lack of ability to play FT at 3B was one of the leading reasons we signed Pablo in the first place, so I do not think we should count on him as our FT 3Bman (not that anyone has here). With Moncada and Devers in the wings, I doubt we look for anything more than a 1 year solution to our 3B need. We may just let the situation play out and address the need at the deadline, if nobody has stepped up to fill the void. Perhaps, we'll see Pablo and Young platoon at DH next year, and Moncada, Shaw, Holt, Rutledge and Hernandez battle for 3B rights. That mean we may try to get by without any major offensive addition. My guess is that at worst, we get some sort of short term vet that can play corner IF and maybe even LF, and use our resources to build up the pitchong staff.

Exactly. The deals DD made were to help us win now. He made us the AL faves, but the players and manager did not follow through. I still disagree with the three major moves DD made (Price, Kimbrel & Pomeranz), but not because it lessened our chances to win this year and over the next two year.

Let's be clear. the Sox were nowhere near the overall favorites this year. We were probably picked to beat the Guardians, but we weren't the pick to go all the way by any stretch of the imagination. By season's end, I think we had the highest odds for an AL team to win the WS. I seriously doubt, in all honesty, anybody here would have switched rosters with another AL team the day before the first game of the playoffs. If I am right about this, then how can anybody, now in hindsight, blame the GM for constructing a roster we all were pretty much happy with for the 2016 season? Many of us disagreed with some deals, the choice of manager, and other aspects of roster and management building, but the fact is, we looked better than any other AL team. I thought so at the beginning of the year, too. Injuries to Smith and the miserable showing by Pablo gave me some doubts, but clearly, right from the start, we had a deeper bench than anybody in the AL. Shaw did well replacing Pablo, Wright did an amazing job replacing ERod. Porcello picked up the slack for a somewhat disappointing season from Price. Leon took up the slack for a faltering Vazquez and injured Swihart. No other AL team had the in-system bench to fill in the holes that opened up over the year.

The issue with Shaw is that it seems more likely his plus offense to end 2015 and to start of 2016 was not a true indication of what we can expect going forward. It was significantly better than his record in AAA and AA. His OPS has been lower than his AA/AAA norm in 5 of his last 8 half seasons. His fielding at 3B may have been better than I expected, and he is really very good defensively at 1B, but I really do not see there being a good chance he could have a 2.2 WAR over 150 games at 3B next year. The team's 3B WAR ranked 30th. There was a reason Shaw lost his job in the same way there was a reason Pablo lost it earlier.

I really have trouble with how people take the idea of suggesting a trade of one of our players as "giving up on him". I never see it that way, unless you're dumping a salary. I would say that if a person was to suggest a trade of Moncada for Quintana, then that person is far from "giving up" but instead is showing how much he really values Moncada. I think the fact that $60M was spent could actually be a selling point to the team about to get him. That money spent does not count against the luxury, so I think in some ways, Henry is not as worried about the "sunken cost" as he would be, if he had to pay a team $60M to take a player off our hands. The fact that Moncada is much closer to ML ready than when we spent the $60M, and that Moncada has done nothing more than impress people and move up on rankings charts makes him worth more than the $60M we already spent on him. Don't be fooled by the disappointing teeny tiny sample size Moncada had in the bigs this year. His trade value is off the charts- as it should be. I'm not for trading Moncada, or for trading Swihart, but sometimes, we have to look at what the return is and if we judge it to be better, we probably should put our regrets aside and do what's best for this team's future. We have to look at who we have instead of Moncada and how much of a drop off it might be vs how much of a gain we get at the position we trade for, and also what other positions might be affected by the trade. For example, let's say it's a Moncada and Swihart for Quintana trade. We have to ask ourselves how much these two guys were going to mean to us over the length of their team control vs. who else we have instead. What's the drop off between Swihart and Vazquez or Leon? Same with Moncada vs our 3B crew now and Devers going forward. Now, compare that differential to what Quinatna would bring us for 4 more years at a $4.2M against the luxury limit. The money "saved" by having an ace at that cost may allow us to extend Betts or acquire a big FA at some point. The addition of Quintana to the rotation now makes Porcello our #2 and Price our #3 and so on. It adds a solid pitcher (Wright, Buch or Pom) to our depleted pen. It has a snowball affect on several areas of the team. I realizw giving up 4-5 years of Moncada and 4-5 years of Swihart for just 4 years of Quintana could backfire, if Quintana declines or one or both of our kids go on to HOF careers, but I'm willing to take risks like this for real talent like Quintana, instead of for RP'ers (like Kimbrel) and mid-rotation SP'ers (like Pom). We may need to go bold to get to the next level. Maybe keeping all the top prospects is the bold thing to do, and I am not necessarily against looking long myself.

Agreede.Did anybody here say they thought the Guardians had a better team and were going to beat the Sox? No. We all thought the Sox had a better team. Some were worried we slumped at the very end (right after a long winning streak, I might add). Some were concerned about the farewell to Papi tour messing us up, but clearly we had what we all thought was the better team. Yes, the Guardians had 2 big pitchers hurt, and we still lost. It's hard to blame the GM, when we all thought we should have won.

Why are we hung up on getting one of the big name relievers? Don't we have enough of those already? We have one, Kimbrel, and he looks shaky. I think the key to building a good pen is scouting and finding guys that have the stuff or are about to have the stuff to get the job done. Easier said than done. Every year we see tons of these types. Yeah, on other teams. I don't think that dropping a ton of money on even more Rps is a good idea. Id' rather trade for one (like Robertson) than spend big on a closer and risk creating a pouting Kimbrel. I say grab a few non-name types and see who pans out. Name names. I would be surprised if DD made a big move or just about any move at 3rd base. You can't have 3-6 WAR players in the entire lineup. I'd love to have a Machado at third but I don't see that happening with Fatboy's contract hovering. I think that this team has enough inventory of corner IFs to cover that spot. I could see us waiting until midway through winter, check in on Pablo's weight, and if he's still bloated, maybe trade for a one year bridge to Moncada/Devers (maybe Frazier?). If DD is the type who does not make a move to replace the Ortiz production with a solid to comparable power bat or high OBP type because he worries about blocking a prospect then he is not qualified to run my team. The need is now, not one, two, or three years from now. I certainly don't want to wait for a prospect to come up and be Middlbrooks or Brentz types if I could have had a proven MLB bat doing the job and helping to strive toward a ring in 2017. There are other options than just trying to replace the irreplaceable. You can improve the team in other areas to make up for the loss at DH.

The FA market for good pen arms evaporates after Jansen, Chapman and Melancon. We may have to go the trade route to upgrade the pen. 3B is hard to figure out, because it was our worst position last year (by WAR, it was the worst in MLB) and screams for fixing. However, two of our best prospects play 3B: Moncada & Devers; we're already paying a 3Bman $19M a year (Pablo); we have Shaw, Hernandez, Holt, Marrero and Rutledge in the system; and even the thought of moving Bogey to 3B when Dubon is ready is not an outlandish idea. Further down the road are possibilities like Dalbec & Chavis. This all makes it hard to go out and acquire a mulit-year 3B soultion, and one year, capable bridge players don't grow on trees. Replacing Papi also runs into a similar position as 3B. We have so many promising and questionable players that might end up being blocked by adding a long contract at DH. I do think getting an ace might be the best idea this winter. that would put us in a strong position to trade a Sp'er for whatever hole needs filling in July.

The 40 man roster arranged by years of team control remaining: last year of team control.... 2017: Young, Buchholz & Abad (Hanigan if option is taken this winter) 2018: Pomeranz, Kimbrel, Kelly & Ross (Price has an opt out & Ramirez a vesting option) 2019: Bogaerts, Porcello, Ramirez, Holt, Leon, Rutledge, Holaday & Workman 2020: Betts, Bradley, Wright, C Smith, Vazquez & Elias 2021: Pedroia 2022: Price (assuming he does not opt out after 2018) Unknown last year due to arb schedule not being set yet: ERod, Swihart, Benintendi, Moncada, Hernandez, Shaw, Barnes, Hembree, Scott, Owens, Johnson, Marrero, N Ramirez, Brentz, Jerez Free Agents or retirees this year (5): Ortiz, Uehara, Ziegler, Tazawa & Hill Options (2): Buchholz & Hanigan 60-Day DL (5): Swihart, C Smith, Sandoval, Rutledge & Workman All the five 60 day DL players would take the place of the five departing players, and if we let Hanigan's option go, we'll have 39 players. Adding new players would mean trading or DFA'ing someone. Here's my list of those players, assuming no trades of better players: 1) Brentz (out of options) 2) Holaday (out of options) 3) Jerez 4) Noe Ramirez 5) Workman Other marginal players out of options: Abad & Elias

I'm not trying to defend these moves, and the CC signing really angered me. I said at the time, he was a "glorified platoon player" with numbers vs LHPs that would have made him a platoon player with Boston all those years in TB. I hated the deal. I think they knew Ellsbury was going to get paid by someone else more than what we planned to offer. Castillo was highly regarded by many scouts and baseball people. Several Cubans were having good seasons out of the gate, and I think Boston wanted to "cash in" on the new craze. Maybe they thought Pablo would be like a lesser Papi. Big in big moments and average in others. I didn't get it. I thought we should have put HanRam at 3B, when we signed him. When you let big named players go, who end up having great years afterwards, you at least have to make some sort of sense with what you used the money for. Porcello would have been a great replacement for Lackey, but not for Lester. Scherzer might have been a good replacement for Lester, but at much more of a cost. The CC signing forced us to trade AGon, which to me wasn't as bad as many felt it was. We have a mighty hill to climb now that Papi is gone. There's nobody left from the 2004 championship. Only Pedey and Buch are left over from the 2007 season, and Buch only pitched 23 innings that season. The next most senior players on this team are Wright, Vazquez and Holt added to the 40 man roster back in 2012. There is a lot of work to be done, but I do think we have an excellent core of young players and vets to build on. No big player is leaving after 2017 (just Young & Buch) and not many after 20.18 either (Kimbrel, Kelly & Ross). This alone can be very helpful, although I wish Pablo, Castillo and Craig's contracts were already over with. We ave some duplicated values and some tough choices to make. We absolutely have to get these choices right to have a good chance at winning another ring real soon. Do we keep Swihart or Vazquez? I doubt we can keep both, if we really want to upgrade elsewhere, but guessing wrong here could be catastrophic. Do we sign EE for 4-5 years, Beltran for 2 years or let some sort of in-house solution formulate? How do we address the loss of Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa to a pen that was already very shaky for much of 2016? Do we stand pat with the 6 starters we have and hope 4-5 caan pitch like they did for a half season this year? Porcello's second half (first half was good too) Buch's second half Price's second half ERod's second half Wright's first half Pomeranz's first half Lot's of question marks, but to me, fewer than last winter. Fewer but more pronounced- replace Papi, fix 3B and fix the pen.