moonslav59

I was talking about these words: I don't let worries about the future ruin enjoyment of a present with very bright possibilities.

I love the team we have and am happy with most of DD's moves. I'm not bitching, but I'm one that enjoys both the present and looking to the future. The future concerns me, and if not sugar coating the future is taken as bitching, it wasn't meant to be, on my part anyway. There is no getting around the fact that there is a very strong probability that this team will have serious roster construction issues in 3-6 years (maybe 4-7 years). For those living in just the present, don't start crying when it happens. Don't blame DD. You supported the philosophy. I wanna win now too. Maybe we could have won without 1 or two of these moves, but trying to play it half way (or both ways) runs the risk of coming so close while never reaching the promise land. I went through that for decades. If I had it my way, I'd have not traded Espi, and maybe tried to find a better way to acquire a less costly closer, but it is what it is. We are the clear AL favorites and are close to the Cubbies on paper. We are set for 2-3 years. We have a fantastic group of prime and under prime talent, and we should be able to keep most of them beyond 3-4 years. We shouldn't suck from 4-7 years, but it will be hard to put a top competitive team on the field beyond 4 years without some serious aginst-the odds s*** going down over the next few years-- like drafting another Mookie in the fifth round. I'm psyched about this team. Spudboy is right. This is the best Sox team in a while. I'd go so far as to say, this team is as good on paper as our recent ring teams. Yeah, we lack the Mannys and Papis, but we're balanced on offense, have a much better defense, and our rotation and starter depth is as good as ever. I love great pitching and defense. I'm in heaven.

You just put the words right in your own mouth. I hope you're not attributing or assuming that because some of us worry about the future we can't enjoy the bright present. The two are not mutually exclusive for some people.

I just can't grasp that mentality. Well, we're even: I can't grasp short-sightedness and the culture of instant gratification.

Assuming Price does not opt out, I don't think we'll be able to sign BOTH Sale and Porcello for 2020. We could probably skimp and save and sign two out of Sale, Porcello and Bogey. Considering they might be making close to $50M combined that last year, we may only have to come up with $30-40M extra per year. As I showed before, if we don't replace all the 2017 and 2018 salaries with long term deals.

The big problem is going to be from after 2020 to that 6th and 7th year, when Moncada and others come available.

We have over $54M coming off the books in the next two years: $13.5M Buch '17 $13M Kimbrel (option year '18) $6.5M Young '17 $5.5M Moreland '17 last arb (estimate): $8.5M Pomernaz '18 $4M Kelly '18 $3M Ross '18 We can fill some gaps with one or two year deals next winter and just one year deals after 2018, so the books will be cleaned up for after 2019. Maybe Swihart, Devers and Hernandez can replace Young & Moreland (and eventually HanRam/Pablo). Maybe Owens, Johnson, Scott, Martin & Ysla and the short term signings can partially replace Buch, Pom, Kimbrel, Kelly & Ross. The real moment of truth comes after 2019 and 2020, but if we have this $54M freed up plus the small luxury tax increases, we might be close to $60M by the end of 2018. Of course, some hefty arb raises (Betts, JBJ and others) will eat up a big chunk, but a lot should be rolled over. After 2019, we will have between $80-90M coming off the books, and not all should need to be replaced. Ramirez $22M, Porcello $22.6M, Pablo $19M, Sale $13M, Bogaerts (~$arb), Holt ($arb) and Rutledge ($arb), but we'll need to replace or extend Sale, Porcello & Bogey. Devers and Travis (Hernandez/Chatham/Longhi/Chavis/Ockimey) can replace Ramirez 1B/DH & Pablo 3B/1B. Maybe Groome could make an impact somehow by then, but we should be able to extend Sale, Porcello & Bogey with the $85M plus what's left over after arb raises fro the $60M rolled over from the previous 2 years. A lot of the depends on how we replaced Kimbrel, but we may have enough money left over to squeeze out a decent closer from free agency. After 2020, too many variables are at stake. (Probably several variables will play intoi 2018 as well.) We'll have Betts and JBJ off their last arb year along with Wright, Leon, Vaz and C Smith. That's the time we'll be wishing we had a strong farm with ML talent available.

Could happen, and it might be helpful, but if Price is doing very well, which he'd have to be doing to want to opt out, if might cost more than $30M to replace him. We may need Groome to replace Pomeranz, and Porcello will be a FA the year after Price's opt out winter.

One other aspect of this deal is that had we missed out on Sale, we might have gotten Quintana for Moncada, Swihart and Owens. Look at what the CWS wanted from the Astros for Quintna, and I think we could have beaten that without Kopech, Devers or Groome.

I am. I'm expecting no more than a decent far away prospect. It's the salary relief that brings the most value.

To me, our biggest hope for the long term is not in rebuilding the farm to close to what it just was, that's nearly impossible; my hope is that we can just keep all our young players beyond their last year of current team control. Losing over $25M next winter (Buch, Young & Moreland) and then maybe another $25M after 2018 with Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Kelly and Ross may be enough to extend Bogey & Pomeranz and pay the arb raises at the same time. The real moment of truth comes after 2019: we lose HanRam, pay $5M to lose Pablo and then have to extend Sale & Porcello and ready ourselves to extend Betts & JBJ the following year. Assuming Travis and Devers can replace HanRam & Pablo in kind, I'm not sure their $41M savings will be enough to do all we want, but to me, there's a stronger chance of this happening than counting on our farm to bail us out if 3-6 years. Here's how young we are now: I bolded any years over 32. Ages under team control SP'ers 28-30 Sale 31-32 or 36 Price (opt out)> 33, 34, 35, 36 28-30 Porcello 24-28 ERod 28-30 Pomeranz 32- 35 Wright 33, 34, 35 32 Buchholz (Owens, Johnson, Groome) RHP'ers 29-30 Kimbrel 28-30 Thornburg 27-30 C Smith 29- 30 J Kelly 28- 29 R Ross 27- 31 Barnes (Elias, Abad, Hembree, Scott) Catchers 28-31 Leon 26-29 Vazquez 25- 29 Swihart 1B/DH 33-34 or 35 Ramirez 33, 34 & maybe 35 31 Moreland (Sam Tavis/Ockimey) 2B 33-38 Pedroia 29-31 Holt SS 24-26 Bogaerts 24-29 Hernandez (Chatham) 3B 30-32 or 33 Sandoval-option (Rafael Devers/Bobby Dalbec) LF 22-27 Benintendi 33 C Young CF 27-30 Bradley RF 24-27 Betts

I agree that the overpays were too much, ad we probably could have have gotten all what we have gotten for far for less. Even Price at $21M/7 less would have us comfortably under the luxury limit. Keeping just Asuage and Allen in the Kimbrel deal would have kept our farm a little fuller. Keeping Kopech and maybe adding Basabe and Shaw would have greatly improved our long term outlook. Nix the Espi-Pom deal, and maybe we could have traded Espi, Swihart, Hernandez and Owens for Quintana or just kept these four. I will say, I think we should win a ring in the next 2 years- maybe 3, and I'm glad we didn't play it half way, but there's a strong argument to be made that we played it all out the wrong way.

They could also trade Buch for a prospect, in order to replace a tiny fraction of what was traded away recently. With the salary relief, they could sign a corner IF'er, RP'er or just keep the money for a deadline trade, if needed.

Agreed, but not even for one Chris Heston and 13 nineteen year old Chris Heston prospects not on a 40 man roster.

No, but it was fun saying it.

On the Sale trade: Big Three Sports: I had Moncada firmly at the top of the list, and even his less-than-stellar 20 major league plate appearances with the Red Sox wasn’t going to change that. His swing is one of the most polished I’ve ever seen in a 21 year old. If it was just Moncada and a few wild cards (Basabe and Diaz), I think I would’ve had a tougher time picking the winner in my next heading. I can’t get past the fact that either, but likely both of these prospects will have a major impact on the White Sox organization. That is different than seeing this as an all out bet on Moncada – which I would also be in favor of. Two strong lottery tickets is always better than one. I’m a firm believer that the future value of Moncada alone will far exceed the next three years of Chris Sale. The rest is gravy.

Word is the CWS offered to trade Quintana to the Astros for... Joe Musgrove #86 before the season Frances Martes #26 Kyle Tucker #50 Wonder if we could have gotten him for the offer we gave up for Sale.

I wouldn't trade Buch for 14 Hestons.

I'm as certain as I ever have been that Buch could be traded for a prospect without paying a dime.

They will. I'm not saying we'll get a top prospect.

I think you are missing two big FA after 2019.....along with Porcello, Sale and Hanley will be gone. It will cost us $5M to say good bye to Pablo. Thanks. I went back and corrected. We could have savings from earlier years to cover part or keeping or replacing them, if we don't get locked into any long deals.

Our last few picks in the mid to late 20's: 2014: Chavis 26 2012: Marrero 24 2011: Swihart 26 2010: Vitek 20 2009: Fuentes 28 2008: Kelly 30 2006: Jason Place 27 2006: D Bard 28 2005: Ellsbury 23 2005: Hansen 26

I can only hope that now that he has our short term set, he focuses on replenishing the farm. Not an easy task with projected low draft picks and smaller international spending pool money. DD's farm building resume is sorely lacking, but he has different scouts now. I'm trying to stay hopeful, but I am deeply concerned, as you are.

I was comparing trading Buc for a prospect and signing Moreland vs trading Buc for Smith. A) I like Moreland better than Smith. We'd save $1M C) We'd have a prospect

They may want HnRam to play 1B some, in case Moreland gets hurt or struggles. HanRam will certainly play 1B in NL parks. Young needs to plaly every game when a LH'er starts. I would not sit Beni vs lefties, unless he need a rest- no more. He might struggle vs lefties, so eventually, he might be partially platooned with. JBJ might be one that could sit vs LH'd starters a little more than just on normal days of rest, but I'd still rather have JBJ's defense in CF than Moreland's at 1B. Plus, Young in LF is a downgrade from Beni. We won't make this choice for defensive purposes. I don't think Moreland's numbers vs LHPs are good enough for a 1Bman anyways. .673 does not cut it for me, except maybe at catcher.