moonslav59

The article hints at the Sox not looking to pay any salary and get a decent prospect in return. "We’ll see if the Red Sox can pick up someone like Castillo in the days to come. It’d be a solid get for a rental like Buchholz, but the market for starting pitching is so dry that they’re in a position to ask for a bit more than they normally would." I was actually not expecting a projected top 100 prospect for Buch, so I think my position seems supported by this artcile anyways.

The Astros are looking for a SP'er and appear to be okay with raising their payroll (finally). How about a three team trade? To HOU: Buchholz and $3M To BOS: Y Ventura To KC: choose 2 from BOS: Owens, Johnson, Hernandez, Ockimey,Chavis or TBall a prospect or 2 from HOU

While the Phillies have over $5M in international bonus pool money, the Sox would have had only $2.8M. Here's a link that discusses the penalties for overspending: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/04/mlb-releases-2016-17-international-bonus-pools.html "...Red Sox are set to finish out their own pair of signing seasons on the sidelines, but will be able to re-enter the market fully for 2017-18." _______________________________________________ Here's the link on draft slot allocations: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/04/mlb-releases-2016-draft-bonus-slots.html

He's going to be significantly beyond prime when his contract expires. He's going to cost money and possibly restrict future signings and/or extensions. He's going to cost a draft pick at a point where we may need every pick we can get. I'd love to get EE, Justin Turner and Jansen, but we are not the Dodgers East. If Henry wanted us to be, we could, but he doesn't, so we won't.

Interesting history. I'm thankful you are here, and I enjoyed your time on the BDC as well.

Even dumping their total salaries would only add about $18.2M to our spending allowance, if we want to stay under the limit. I wouldn't do it. If somehow we could trade Buch for a prospect. sign EE to 1-2 years and still reset the tax for next year's much better FA class, then I might say yes, but EE's contract is going to be for 4-5 years, so I'd probably still say no.

The fact that we have a LOT of $$ coming off the books the next 3 years means we can restock the farm, sign some young players that will be up for FA and keep the flow and balance of prospect/FA/trades going. Next winter looks good. We lose about $26 (13.5 Buch, 6.5 Young & 5.5 Moreland), but arb raises will eat into a good chunk of that. Arb year out of total arb years: Pomeranz 3 of 3 Kelly 3 of 3 Ross 3 of 3 Bogey 2 of 3 Thornburg 2 of 3 Holt 2 of 3 Rutledge 2 of 3 JBJ 2 of 4 Leon 2 of 4 Betts 1 of 3 Smith, Wright, Vazquez and Barnes 1 of 3 ERod & Swihart 1 of 4 Plus, Sale's option raises his luxury tax budget cost by nearly $6M and Kimbrel's option raises his luxury budget cost by $2.5M. That's over about a third of the $26M right there alone. Maybe the whole $26M will be gobbled up by these raises.

Agrred, but there's a significant chance he could get hurt or be so subpar at bat and/or on defense that an acquisition is essential.

If big George was alive and still the owner of the Yankees, do you think that they would have seen this type of decline? Hard to say. They had just gone 8 years between rings and had some mega contracts starting to stink up the place before his death. 4 straight years under 88 wins probably would not have happened, but it would have taken more spending to make it happen- something Henry has not yet shown he's willing to do. We've never gone too far over the luxury tax limit. It could happen in 4-7 years, and it might have to to keep all our current talent on board, but without a lot of low paid top young talent helping the roster out, it's going to be very difficult.

We have been given no reason to think that under the current ownership things will be any different for us. You mean like 3 last place finishes out of 4 years that helped us rebuild our farm to the point were we could trade much of it away to get to this great roster we have now? There is a chance and a precedent of having a low period in between championship seasons. We don't trade Margot, if we don't have Beni. We might not trade Espi or Kopech without Groome. We don't even have all these players to trade away with out higher draft picks and being able to spend on Moncada, Devers and other international studs.

Not once in my lifetime have I had a better feeling about a team going forward than I do this one. I agree. Even after 2004, I didn't feel as strongly about "next year's team" than I do now. With respect to the future of this franchise 5 to 10 years from now, we definitely disagree. I'm talking more about 4-6 or 4-7 years not 8-10 years out. To have prospects ready by then other than Devers, Travis and Groome, we're going to have to do well very quickly with our draft and international signings. I'm just saying it will be very difficult but not impossible. Just getting more consistent with our drafts might help. We tend to have fantastic drafts here and there with near total misses in between. What concerns me about the draft is that our best ones usually cam as a result of extra high picks due to comp picks gained from departing free agents. The system has changed since those days. We may gain a pick from HanRam without having to spend large to replace him, but anyone else worthy of a QO is going to leave a big hole to fill. Here's a look at our best drafts: 2005: We got 6 picks by losing these three guys: O Cab- Ellsbury & Lowrie D Lowe- Hansen & Bowden Pedro- Buchholz & Egan None of our own picks amounted to anything. Then we had low picks and near total waste drafts in 2006, 2007, 2008 & 2009 (Masterson, Rizzo & Vazquez). That's a long stretch that I'm afraid we might see again over the next 3-4 years. The 2010 draft saw us get 4 comp picks for losing... B Wagner: K Vitek & A Ranaudo J Bay: Brentz & Workman But, I'd still call that draft a bust. We probably can't expect 4 picks like that again, and there's still a risk of failure, even if we got one! So, basically from 2006 to 2010, our drafts were largely duds. That's what winning can do to you. We stayed competitive largely by free agency and international free spending.\ 2011 draft: we got 4 comp picks for losing... VMart: Barnes & Owens Beltre: JBJ & Swihart We also drafted Betts with the 172nd pick! GREAT draft after 6 years of near futility! 2012: dud 2013: dud 2014: Kopech with pick #33 2015: Beni with pick #7. 2016: Groome with the #12 pick. So, one great draft since 2004 and two of our best recent picks coming at #7 and 12. Yes, we got Betts and Kopech with lower picks, and we can hope for more of them, but our record with lower picks is not something to be proud of.

Agreed, and it's not like it should be really hard to find a decent 3Bman on a losing team.

We're arguing semantics. You say tomato; I say tomahto. I've been a fan since the very early 70's. I suffered with you and others. I'm on board with the win in this 3 year window plan. I'm fine with winning "now" at the likely expense of the future. You're right, we don't know what might happen. Every prospect we traded could suck. I get that. I'm glad you at least acknowledge it will be a "challenge" to restock the farm. I'm sure we'll find a few gems, but it is going to be really hard to find guys like Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Moncada, Devers, Kopech, Groome, Margot, Espi, Guerra and more under the new system that works more and more against winners and big spenders.

These may be our Glory Days... our haydays... for a while, but I'm all for riding this horse until he drops, and if we become relegated to becoming the Yankees of 2016 in 2022 then so be it. But as long as JH owns this team I believe we'll respond just like the Y's are now. I'm 100% on board, even with the Espi trade still bothering me. I lived the "bridesmaid" years, and I used to sall all the time, "I'll take 10 last place finishes for JUST ONE RING!!!!!". I've since adjusted that attitude, as you are right, we've all become a bit spoiled by our decade of success. As I've said, I'm happy with the choice not to play it half way. I'm just not going to sugar coat the difficulties this team will have in 4-7 years due to the push to win in this 2-3 year window.

We have lost some guys in our scouting and player development team, but who knows, maybe the new guys are better. We may never be able to just purchase a guy like Moncada again. The international market has been very kind to us recently sans Castillo. Bogaerts, Tazawa, Doubront (traded), Moncada (traded), Devers, Iggy (traded), F Montas (traded), J Aro (traded), J Diaz (traded), W Rijo (traded), J Almonte (traded) and many more from longer ago...like HanRam. I'm not saying we will be a last place team in 4-7 years, but it's not going to be easy to win, if we have a roster with salaries like this in 2020-2021: $30M+: Price, Sale & Betts $20-30M: Porcello, Bogey and JBJ Plus whatever these guys or their replacements make: HanRam, Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Thornburg Plus Pedey still maing $12-13M and arbs for Wright, Vaz, Leon, Beni, Swihart etc...

If he does, we will should be champs.

I'm curious if you've been called a troll on other sites (not that you have here).

I agree. We're not talking SS, CF or catcher here. We're talking 1B and DH (by extension). It's nice having a great defensive 1Bman out there everyday, but Moreland's numbers vs LHPs just don't support the decision to play him every day. .240/.295/.378/.673 I wouldn't be fooled by his revers splits in 2016 (.799 vs LHPs and .700 vs RHPs), but certainly he might get a chance here and there to show he can hit lefties and play some games vs certain ones..

I figured you were, and his injury and inconsistency issues do make him a "weak link" in our 25 man roster for those purposes, but his upside is a proven thing, and he's not far removed from his last hot stretch.

I actually enjoy him coming here. He offers a somewhat unbiased opinion that is heavily and consistently tied to WAR and projected WAR. I don't think he's a troll, and he often shoots down my suggestions- always for being too light on my return packages, while Sox fans often say I'm too heavy- so that's where I see him as a balancing influence to the board.

We've used plenty of starters each year. Some years we get over 40 starts from or 6th and lower starters. This year, we used our 10th starter in May (O'Sullivan) and then had to trade for Pomeranz. I loved the Sale trade, but in the context of all the other recent trades, we've done a serious number on our once glowing farm system. With new rules in place making it harder for high-spending teams to acquire young talent, we can't pretend it's going to be easy to build the farm back up. It might take some losing seasons to get higher draft picks. It might mean having some sell-offs in non-contending years. Here's what we've lost in the last 13 months: Sox prospects traded in the last year: Mid-season Baseball America Rankings: #1 Moncada #15 Espinosa #39 Margot #87 Guerra (52 to start the season/right after the trade) #93 Kopech Highest soxprospects.com ranking: 1. Moncada 3. Espinoza 3. Margot 3. Cecchini 5. Kopech 6. Guerra 7. Basabe 10. Dubon 12. T Shaw (not a prospect when traded) 12. Wendell Rijo 13. Logan Allen 13. Pat Light 14. Edwin Escobar (claimed off waivers) 18. Basabe (the other one) 20. Carlos Asuaje 21. Victor Diaz 21. Jonathan Aro 27. Josh Pennington 30. Aaron Wilkerson 40. Jose Almonte Here's what we've gained and still have: Sale Kimbrel Pomeranz Thornburg C Smith These are 5 key pieces to our staff. There's no doubt they have turned us into a serious contender. They've probably put us close to being co-faves with the Cubbies in 2017 and 2018. I love the make-up of this team and accept the consequences that are sure to come.

The same could have been said about the Yankees 3-7 years ago, and they didn't even win a ring with their sacrificing of the future. Your future is now. Fire sales. Higher draft picks. Rebuilding the farm. I'm fine with it, and I wouldn't call it "worrying about 2021", but being realistic, we know the day of reckoning will come. Again, I'm happy with the "window" we created, but I am also aware of what the trade-off was.

If we can't build a future with $200M annual spending, well I have no sympathy. I totally agree, and sometimes sacrificing some of the future to try and win now makes sense. I like what we did, but I know our future will likely suffer as a result of these moves.

Nobody is pretending to have control of the future roster construction or the present one as well. We are debating the significance of the moves made and how they affect the present and future. At times, you seem to want to deny our future will be affected or your position appears to minimize the value of planning for the future. To me, that is short- sighted. You and others want to win now and not worry about the future. You can explain it away as "I don't have any control over it", but that is outside the realm of having a discussion about the Sox now and going forward into the extended future. The moves we made recently will affect the future. If you'd rather not discuss the future, that's fine, but to me it fits into the category of "instant gratification" and sugar coating future concerns.

I'd say our 8th rotation slot is much weaker than our 7th slot when compared league wide. I's also put 3B and maybe 1B/DH (where ever HanRam is not playing) is weaker than our 7th starter- league comparative wise.